Abstruse Zebra
@abstrusezebra.bsky.social
Posts about African and Asian security and politics.
From Australia.
From Australia.
Ethiopia is again railing against Eritrea and the "conspiracy" which created it with the dawn of the new year. At some point either deliberately or accidentally, this will tip over into kinetic action, but who knows exactly when.
January 7, 2026 at 11:59 AM
Ethiopia is again railing against Eritrea and the "conspiracy" which created it with the dawn of the new year. At some point either deliberately or accidentally, this will tip over into kinetic action, but who knows exactly when.
The only concrete success of Trump's deal making approach to peacemaking in Africa has occurred today. American pressure has forced M23 and Rwanda to withdraw from the recently captured city of Uvira. This is not peace, Rwanda has previously used withdrawals to avoid foreign interference in its war.
December 16, 2025 at 12:13 PM
The only concrete success of Trump's deal making approach to peacemaking in Africa has occurred today. American pressure has forced M23 and Rwanda to withdraw from the recently captured city of Uvira. This is not peace, Rwanda has previously used withdrawals to avoid foreign interference in its war.
Trump's attempt to secure a new ceasefire has failed so has. He has managed to anger Thailand and even Cambodia refused to commit to anything with him.
December 13, 2025 at 3:36 AM
Trump's attempt to secure a new ceasefire has failed so has. He has managed to anger Thailand and even Cambodia refused to commit to anything with him.
South Sudan has finally achieved one of its great foreign policy goals since independence, control over Heglig. Negotiated with the RSF it does seem likely to deepen South Sudanese ties with the RSF and draw South Sudan further into the war.
December 11, 2025 at 12:46 PM
South Sudan has finally achieved one of its great foreign policy goals since independence, control over Heglig. Negotiated with the RSF it does seem likely to deepen South Sudanese ties with the RSF and draw South Sudan further into the war.
Seems very probable that the Thai-Cambodian ceasefire will collapse in the next few days. While blame lies on both sides, the Thai Government seems to be acting most escalatory in an attempt to prove its national security credentials.
September 25, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Seems very probable that the Thai-Cambodian ceasefire will collapse in the next few days. While blame lies on both sides, the Thai Government seems to be acting most escalatory in an attempt to prove its national security credentials.
The Ethiopian blockade of Tigray appears designed to force the TPLF/Tigray to open hostilities in the coming conflict, hoping to divide both Tigray and its embryonic alliance with Eritrea. I suspect this is a miscalculation as Ethiopian induced starvation is sure to unite a divided Tigray.
May 31, 2025 at 1:02 AM
The Ethiopian blockade of Tigray appears designed to force the TPLF/Tigray to open hostilities in the coming conflict, hoping to divide both Tigray and its embryonic alliance with Eritrea. I suspect this is a miscalculation as Ethiopian induced starvation is sure to unite a divided Tigray.
If these reports are accurate it seems likely the endgame in Tigray is upon us. A ban on foreigners was one of Ethiopia's final acts in the run up to the Tigray War in October and November 2020. Tigrayan, Eritrean and Ethiopian military forces all seem to be mostly prepared for such an eventuality.
May 12, 2025 at 1:18 PM
If these reports are accurate it seems likely the endgame in Tigray is upon us. A ban on foreigners was one of Ethiopia's final acts in the run up to the Tigray War in October and November 2020. Tigrayan, Eritrean and Ethiopian military forces all seem to be mostly prepared for such an eventuality.
Hopefully US claims to have brokered a ceasefire are accurate and said ceasefire does hold. More than happy to eat my words if the US did play a role in defusing this major crisis
May 10, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Hopefully US claims to have brokered a ceasefire are accurate and said ceasefire does hold. More than happy to eat my words if the US did play a role in defusing this major crisis
Eritrea has unleashed their "independent media" in an attempt to encourage conflict between Mekelle and Addis Ababa. Won't be hard to do with both viewing another war as inevitable anyway. Eritrea sees its opportunity to remake Ethiopia and the larger Horn.
May 5, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Eritrea has unleashed their "independent media" in an attempt to encourage conflict between Mekelle and Addis Ababa. Won't be hard to do with both viewing another war as inevitable anyway. Eritrea sees its opportunity to remake Ethiopia and the larger Horn.
The appointment of Fisseha Kidanu as the head of the TDF confirms TPLF-Debretsion control over the military and apparatus of state in the post-Reda Tigray. It remains to be seen what the TPLF will do with this reversal of their regional fortunes.
May 2, 2025 at 12:24 PM
The appointment of Fisseha Kidanu as the head of the TDF confirms TPLF-Debretsion control over the military and apparatus of state in the post-Reda Tigray. It remains to be seen what the TPLF will do with this reversal of their regional fortunes.
Hard to argue with reports in Somalian media that the Turkish-Somalian security and energy agreement signed in March 2024 made Somalia little more than a protectorate of Turkey. Truly brazen and exploitative neocolonialism by Ankara.
April 24, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Hard to argue with reports in Somalian media that the Turkish-Somalian security and energy agreement signed in March 2024 made Somalia little more than a protectorate of Turkey. Truly brazen and exploitative neocolonialism by Ankara.
Today's drills by China in the Taiwan Strait represent a major geopolitical shift. China has now accustomed Taiwan and her allies into the regularity of Chinese invasion prep drills in the region. China can now transition these drills into an invasion of an outlying island such as Wuqiu very quickly
April 1, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Today's drills by China in the Taiwan Strait represent a major geopolitical shift. China has now accustomed Taiwan and her allies into the regularity of Chinese invasion prep drills in the region. China can now transition these drills into an invasion of an outlying island such as Wuqiu very quickly
The ONLF appear to be taking up armed resistance, no longer with the goal of protecting the Ogaden from Ethiopian exploitation but the independence of all Somalis. The OLA have welcomed them to a single united struggle though they oppose what they call an attempt to blame Oromos for the Abiy regime.
April 1, 2025 at 12:30 AM
The ONLF appear to be taking up armed resistance, no longer with the goal of protecting the Ogaden from Ethiopian exploitation but the independence of all Somalis. The OLA have welcomed them to a single united struggle though they oppose what they call an attempt to blame Oromos for the Abiy regime.
As Ugandan forces expand the geographical scope of their operations in the DRC, their leadership continues to rail against and delegitimise the DRC Government which they are de facto replacing. I strongly suspect the DRC will find Uganda unwilling to return territory they have occupied.
March 30, 2025 at 11:46 PM
As Ugandan forces expand the geographical scope of their operations in the DRC, their leadership continues to rail against and delegitimise the DRC Government which they are de facto replacing. I strongly suspect the DRC will find Uganda unwilling to return territory they have occupied.
Muhoozi's aggressive rhetoric about the situations in both South Sudan and now openly against Kinshasa in the DRC, are either signals of a Uganda which feels itself ready to make a major play to become the leading regional power or represent a growing split in policy between father and son in Uganda
March 24, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Muhoozi's aggressive rhetoric about the situations in both South Sudan and now openly against Kinshasa in the DRC, are either signals of a Uganda which feels itself ready to make a major play to become the leading regional power or represent a growing split in policy between father and son in Uganda
A sign of success, M23/AFC have been forced to withdraw from Walikale due to a combination of diplomatic and military pressure. Maintaining pressure on Rwanda is vital to keeping up momentum. Do not allow Rwanda to spin an unconditional ceasefire which entrenches their rule as a move towards peace.
March 22, 2025 at 1:10 PM
A sign of success, M23/AFC have been forced to withdraw from Walikale due to a combination of diplomatic and military pressure. Maintaining pressure on Rwanda is vital to keeping up momentum. Do not allow Rwanda to spin an unconditional ceasefire which entrenches their rule as a move towards peace.
We should not allow the AFC choice to walk away from the new Luanda talks to convince the International Community that pressure on Rwanda won't work. Pressure on Rwanda got them to consider negotiations and if it is maintained it will force them to the table.
March 18, 2025 at 6:18 AM
We should not allow the AFC choice to walk away from the new Luanda talks to convince the International Community that pressure on Rwanda won't work. Pressure on Rwanda got them to consider negotiations and if it is maintained it will force them to the table.
TPLF again working to distinguish between a Pretoria Agreement and Ethiopian Government they claim on paper to support and their revolutionary reality. This delicate balance will be vital if reports of Tadesse as head of the TDF and Assefa as representative of the TPLF going to Addis are true.
March 15, 2025 at 12:16 PM
TPLF again working to distinguish between a Pretoria Agreement and Ethiopian Government they claim on paper to support and their revolutionary reality. This delicate balance will be vital if reports of Tadesse as head of the TDF and Assefa as representative of the TPLF going to Addis are true.
Eritrea's Minister of Information denies any involvement and interest in events in Tigray. However they also call Ethiopian territorial irredentism a "toxic agenda" destabilising the region. Even if Eritrea were not supporting Debretsion, they clearly see opportunity here to weaken Ethiopia.
March 14, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Eritrea's Minister of Information denies any involvement and interest in events in Tigray. However they also call Ethiopian territorial irredentism a "toxic agenda" destabilising the region. Even if Eritrea were not supporting Debretsion, they clearly see opportunity here to weaken Ethiopia.
Fighting continues across Tigray today as Debretsion tightens the noose on President Reda. Seems all but inevitable these are the first shots of a wider regional conflagration.
March 11, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Fighting continues across Tigray today as Debretsion tightens the noose on President Reda. Seems all but inevitable these are the first shots of a wider regional conflagration.
The seizure of Adigrat by Debretsion aligned forces means they can hold the door open if/when Eritrean forces move to assist them. Feels like Debretsion has crossed the Rubicon and the die is cast. They must now win or be destroyed.
March 11, 2025 at 12:36 PM
The seizure of Adigrat by Debretsion aligned forces means they can hold the door open if/when Eritrean forces move to assist them. Feels like Debretsion has crossed the Rubicon and the die is cast. They must now win or be destroyed.
Abiy and HSM unsurprisingly don't produce anything new. Does seem that he has likely cemented the recent status of forces agreement. Ankara Declaration also reiterated though no clarity on whether commercial port access under the Declaration has a security component. No mention of Jubaland though.
February 27, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Abiy and HSM unsurprisingly don't produce anything new. Does seem that he has likely cemented the recent status of forces agreement. Ankara Declaration also reiterated though no clarity on whether commercial port access under the Declaration has a security component. No mention of Jubaland though.
In light of concerns over US funding and domestic Kenyan opposition to the deployment curious to see if the Haitian force survives this first real test. Perhaps if there was evidence of significant progress it would be in better shape, but Haitian gangs continue to make ground. Haiti's woes continue
February 24, 2025 at 11:09 AM
In light of concerns over US funding and domestic Kenyan opposition to the deployment curious to see if the Haitian force survives this first real test. Perhaps if there was evidence of significant progress it would be in better shape, but Haitian gangs continue to make ground. Haiti's woes continue
While it is always difficult to tell how much of what Muhoozi says on twitter is government policy and how much is him, this a week after previous threats to occupy vast swathes of Ituri are signs that Uganda is seriously considering a large scale occupation of Ituri and other parts of the DRC.
February 23, 2025 at 11:18 AM
While it is always difficult to tell how much of what Muhoozi says on twitter is government policy and how much is him, this a week after previous threats to occupy vast swathes of Ituri are signs that Uganda is seriously considering a large scale occupation of Ituri and other parts of the DRC.
As the RSF and its civilian enablers gather in Nairobi to form their "Government of Peace and Unity", RSF forces kill as many as 500 civilians in lightning raids across the White Nile State. I am sure Sudanese people feel safer already.
Photo: Eliud Kibii of The Star-Kenya
Photo: Eliud Kibii of The Star-Kenya
February 18, 2025 at 11:44 AM
As the RSF and its civilian enablers gather in Nairobi to form their "Government of Peace and Unity", RSF forces kill as many as 500 civilians in lightning raids across the White Nile State. I am sure Sudanese people feel safer already.
Photo: Eliud Kibii of The Star-Kenya
Photo: Eliud Kibii of The Star-Kenya