If the forecasts are clustered and represented as ensembles, then the decision-making strategy that participants adopt is largely based on the cluster of forecasts.

We found that p-boxes lead to relatively more risk-averse decision-making where the lower bound of the set of forecasts is weighted more heavily. On the other hand, decisions made with ensembles are only going to be similarly risk-averse if the forecasts are not clustered.

We explore how the visual representations used can impact the decision-making strategies that a viewer adopts. We vary how the 2nd order uncertainty is visualised using either ensembles or p-boxes (which only shows the bounds of the distributions.