Aaron Strauss
@aaronstrauss.bsky.social
Using science to elect Dems. Dad x2; kidney donor; baker; goalkeeper
Very curious how much this pivot affects MTG's perennial underperformance.
November 6, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Very curious how much this pivot affects MTG's perennial underperformance.
Yes, campaign effects are smaller these days. But at the same time, national contests -- control of the House, Senate, and presidency -- are narrower as well. As ICE abductions show, we desperately need to win these contests.
Small effects matter.
Campaigns matter.
Candidates matter.
Small effects matter.
Campaigns matter.
Candidates matter.
November 5, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Yes, campaign effects are smaller these days. But at the same time, national contests -- control of the House, Senate, and presidency -- are narrower as well. As ICE abductions show, we desperately need to win these contests.
Small effects matter.
Campaigns matter.
Candidates matter.
Small effects matter.
Campaigns matter.
Candidates matter.
The most powerful tool a campaign has is the candidate. And despite academics charts showing low ticket-splitting, a focused candidate *can* differentiate them from the party. Mamdani focused on costs and voters listened.
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
November 5, 2025 at 4:39 PM
The most powerful tool a campaign has is the candidate. And despite academics charts showing low ticket-splitting, a focused candidate *can* differentiate them from the party. Mamdani focused on costs and voters listened.
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
@searchlightinst.bsky.social ran the poll and candidates CAN determine how voters view them, even in an era of low ticket-splitting and nationalized discourse.
If any chart gives you hope about 2028 when we'll have to run against populism, it should be this one on Mamdani's success:
If any chart gives you hope about 2028 when we'll have to run against populism, it should be this one on Mamdani's success:
November 5, 2025 at 4:24 PM
@searchlightinst.bsky.social ran the poll and candidates CAN determine how voters view them, even in an era of low ticket-splitting and nationalized discourse.
If any chart gives you hope about 2028 when we'll have to run against populism, it should be this one on Mamdani's success:
If any chart gives you hope about 2028 when we'll have to run against populism, it should be this one on Mamdani's success:
Also the Jacobin graph scales are tricky. Harris did indeed talk about the economy, just not abnormally so or to even the extent that Biden did. This graph is most compelling imho.
Even 1/10th of the cost of living bar to Harris' econ bar (to get the scales to align) -- she's lower than Biden
Even 1/10th of the cost of living bar to Harris' econ bar (to get the scales to align) -- she's lower than Biden
October 31, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Also the Jacobin graph scales are tricky. Harris did indeed talk about the economy, just not abnormally so or to even the extent that Biden did. This graph is most compelling imho.
Even 1/10th of the cost of living bar to Harris' econ bar (to get the scales to align) -- she's lower than Biden
Even 1/10th of the cost of living bar to Harris' econ bar (to get the scales to align) -- she's lower than Biden
Also, n=1 examples leads to terrible logic. According to researchers, our side outspent Republicans 2:1 on presidential paid media in 2024. I guess we should...only run broadcast TV ads in the future?
(Kidding. Please don't quote me out of context!)
(Kidding. Please don't quote me out of context!)
October 31, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Also, n=1 examples leads to terrible logic. According to researchers, our side outspent Republicans 2:1 on presidential paid media in 2024. I guess we should...only run broadcast TV ads in the future?
(Kidding. Please don't quote me out of context!)
(Kidding. Please don't quote me out of context!)
I'm a fan of @davekarpf.bsky.social and normally love his work, but this is just factually incorrect -- as demonstrated by Jacobin of all places.
A year ago, the Leftist critique of Harris was that she didn't talk about economic populism nearly enough!
A year ago, the Leftist critique of Harris was that she didn't talk about economic populism nearly enough!
October 31, 2025 at 5:25 PM
I'm a fan of @davekarpf.bsky.social and normally love his work, but this is just factually incorrect -- as demonstrated by Jacobin of all places.
A year ago, the Leftist critique of Harris was that she didn't talk about economic populism nearly enough!
A year ago, the Leftist critique of Harris was that she didn't talk about economic populism nearly enough!
Fair. I should have pasted this one too -- I used the other one because you can see the crescendo around democracy
October 31, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Fair. I should have pasted this one too -- I used the other one because you can see the crescendo around democracy
CA isn't close in terms of partisanship. If you're actually interested in this question, I recommend reading Part 6 of the report. Lots of great empirics there.
decidingtowin.org
decidingtowin.org
October 28, 2025 at 7:20 PM
CA isn't close in terms of partisanship. If you're actually interested in this question, I recommend reading Part 6 of the report. Lots of great empirics there.
decidingtowin.org
decidingtowin.org
Ah, for that you have to actual read the report. Admittedly, it's long report with lots of data: I recommend focusing on Part 6.
decidingtowin.org
decidingtowin.org
October 28, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Ah, for that you have to actual read the report. Admittedly, it's long report with lots of data: I recommend focusing on Part 6.
decidingtowin.org
decidingtowin.org
Top 3 funders of the anti-Mamdani PAC are Bloomberg, the Hess Oil guy, and...DoorDash?!
I guess I'll be picking up my food more often then -- hey look, Zohran's already making my life more affordable!
I guess I'll be picking up my food more often then -- hey look, Zohran's already making my life more affordable!
October 28, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Top 3 funders of the anti-Mamdani PAC are Bloomberg, the Hess Oil guy, and...DoorDash?!
I guess I'll be picking up my food more often then -- hey look, Zohran's already making my life more affordable!
I guess I'll be picking up my food more often then -- hey look, Zohran's already making my life more affordable!
Funnily, in answer to your q, the first two Dems who popped into my head were Cuomo and Tlaib. I guess they do have something in common!
October 28, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Funnily, in answer to your q, the first two Dems who popped into my head were Cuomo and Tlaib. I guess they do have something in common!
Who is the "They" here -- this report specifically *praises* Mamdani!
October 28, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Who is the "They" here -- this report specifically *praises* Mamdani!
Well, I have great news for you then! The authors provide a list of candidates for whom it did work -- you can look to these winners for inspiration!
October 28, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Well, I have great news for you then! The authors provide a list of candidates for whom it did work -- you can look to these winners for inspiration!
It was unpopular enough to be reverse going forward!
Democratic accountability comes for us all...
Democratic accountability comes for us all...
October 28, 2025 at 2:15 PM
It was unpopular enough to be reverse going forward!
Democratic accountability comes for us all...
Democratic accountability comes for us all...
Yeah, but the House is very close -- we need those seats! (Also, you can moderate by *more* than one std dev.)
But, we're barely disagreeing on data on moderation, so, Bigger picture: you should write up a proposal for the valence study! I'll help you get it funded :)
But, we're barely disagreeing on data on moderation, so, Bigger picture: you should write up a proposal for the valence study! I'll help you get it funded :)
October 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Yeah, but the House is very close -- we need those seats! (Also, you can moderate by *more* than one std dev.)
But, we're barely disagreeing on data on moderation, so, Bigger picture: you should write up a proposal for the valence study! I'll help you get it funded :)
But, we're barely disagreeing on data on moderation, so, Bigger picture: you should write up a proposal for the valence study! I'll help you get it funded :)
Yes, you should read the report. They praise the moderate Dems who win in tough districts. www.politico.com/f/?id=000001...
October 28, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Yes, you should read the report. They praise the moderate Dems who win in tough districts. www.politico.com/f/?id=000001...
Just FYI, California does provide free health care to undocumented immigrants www.dhcs.ca.gov/keep-your-Me...
October 28, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Just FYI, California does provide free health care to undocumented immigrants www.dhcs.ca.gov/keep-your-Me...
Uh, no. They explicitly say that plenty of Dems take their approach -- they just want MORE of them to win.
October 27, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Uh, no. They explicitly say that plenty of Dems take their approach -- they just want MORE of them to win.
Perception: Rs can make the electorate tune in to any random issue: heck the Cracker Barrel logo was bigger than the East Wing demolition:
Reality: Neutral accounts are spreading East Wing takes 5x as much as peak Cracker Barrel
The enemy isn't all-powerful. We can beat them!
Reality: Neutral accounts are spreading East Wing takes 5x as much as peak Cracker Barrel
The enemy isn't all-powerful. We can beat them!
October 24, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Perception: Rs can make the electorate tune in to any random issue: heck the Cracker Barrel logo was bigger than the East Wing demolition:
Reality: Neutral accounts are spreading East Wing takes 5x as much as peak Cracker Barrel
The enemy isn't all-powerful. We can beat them!
Reality: Neutral accounts are spreading East Wing takes 5x as much as peak Cracker Barrel
The enemy isn't all-powerful. We can beat them!
Re: today's NYT editorial, here's an example of "angry centrism" via left-on-economic issues looks like: Jared Golden was the only Dem vote against BBB because...it didn't include a billionaire's tax.
Jared Golden! Poster child for moderates! Heterodoxy via economic leftist!
This is the way.
Jared Golden! Poster child for moderates! Heterodoxy via economic leftist!
This is the way.
October 20, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Re: today's NYT editorial, here's an example of "angry centrism" via left-on-economic issues looks like: Jared Golden was the only Dem vote against BBB because...it didn't include a billionaire's tax.
Jared Golden! Poster child for moderates! Heterodoxy via economic leftist!
This is the way.
Jared Golden! Poster child for moderates! Heterodoxy via economic leftist!
This is the way.
While the messaging part of the shutdown is going better than I expected, Trump is indeed showing that "essential worker" is in the eye of the beholder. I think there is a good chance that there shutdowns cease to exist post-Trump because the next Dem president declares it so.
October 17, 2025 at 4:58 PM
While the messaging part of the shutdown is going better than I expected, Trump is indeed showing that "essential worker" is in the eye of the beholder. I think there is a good chance that there shutdowns cease to exist post-Trump because the next Dem president declares it so.
Link to the substack in question
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/are-democr...
And my fav article on Mamdani www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/n...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/are-democr...
And my fav article on Mamdani www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/n...
September 25, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Link to the substack in question
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/are-democr...
And my fav article on Mamdani www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/n...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/are-democr...
And my fav article on Mamdani www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/n...
@gelliottmorris.com rightfully points out that Dems face a challenge in agenda setting, specifically around affordability.
But, I'd be curious what NYC voters believe Mamdani is focused on. Because I think he has trailblazed a clear path for Dems to follow re: costs.
Challenging ≠ impossible.
But, I'd be curious what NYC voters believe Mamdani is focused on. Because I think he has trailblazed a clear path for Dems to follow re: costs.
Challenging ≠ impossible.
September 25, 2025 at 4:54 PM
@gelliottmorris.com rightfully points out that Dems face a challenge in agenda setting, specifically around affordability.
But, I'd be curious what NYC voters believe Mamdani is focused on. Because I think he has trailblazed a clear path for Dems to follow re: costs.
Challenging ≠ impossible.
But, I'd be curious what NYC voters believe Mamdani is focused on. Because I think he has trailblazed a clear path for Dems to follow re: costs.
Challenging ≠ impossible.
One thing she *can* do is call her Senator, and have all her friends do the same. If enough people did this, we'd keep healthcare affordable for millions of Americans.
September 24, 2025 at 2:27 PM
One thing she *can* do is call her Senator, and have all her friends do the same. If enough people did this, we'd keep healthcare affordable for millions of Americans.