Aaron Sojourner
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Aaron Sojourner
@aaronsojourner.org
29K followers 6.8K following 13K posts
Labor econ @upjohninstitute.bsky.social & @IZA.org. Formerly senior economist for labor at White House CEA, UMinn prof, union organizer, bike courier, house painter, dishwasher... Minneapolis. Views mine.

aaronsojourner.org

Be kind • Work hard • Have fun
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aaronsojourner.org
Bad management at DOJ leading to staff exit & trouble hiring.

Synchronized withdrawal of labor. Collapse of labor supply.

Reduced administration's capacity.

Not a strike but also not not a strike.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
November 11, 2025 at 2:52 AM
aaronsojourner.org
Immediately after he releases his healthcare plan.

2020: "Trump has promised an Obamacare replacement plan five times so far this year. And the plan is always said to be just a few weeks away."
kffhealthnews.org/news/back-to...
Trump has promised an Obamacare replacement plan five times so far this year. And the plan is always said to be just a few weeks away.
November 10, 2025 at 10:47 PM
aaronsojourner.org
While the president's Solicitor General argues to the Supreme Court that the cornerstone of the president's power to impose tariffs is that they are not revenue raising...
November 10, 2025 at 9:18 PM
aaronsojourner.org
November 10, 2025 at 7:54 PM
aaronsojourner.org
This guy voted for Trump believing he was planning to go after undocumented immigrants who had since committed crimes in the U.S., not all undocumented immigrants. This is the kind of case I have in mind.
www.npr.org/2025/11/06/n...
November 10, 2025 at 7:53 PM
aaronsojourner.org
Anyone interested in attending the LERA May 2026 conference in Minneapolis & doing work on homecare? I'm maybe putting together a panel proposal.
www.leraweb.org/call-2026-minn
November 10, 2025 at 6:44 PM
aaronsojourner.org
billionaire brain
November 10, 2025 at 3:45 PM
aaronsojourner.org
"I want you to understand, regardless of your politics, the historical danger of a secret police. What happens when a militia is deployed in our neighborhoods and against our own people. Left unchecked their mandate will grow; the boundaries of acceptable identity and speech will shrink."
I want you to understand, regardless of your politics, the historical danger of a secret police. What happens when a militia is deployed in our neighborhoods and against our own people. Left unchecked their mandate will grow; the boundaries of acceptable identity and speech will shrink. I want you to think about elections in this future. I want you to understand that every issue you care about—any hope of participatory democracy—is downstream of this. I want you to understand what it is to love Chicago. To see your neighbors make the heartbreaking choice between showing up for work or staying safe. To march two miles long, calling out: “This is what Chicago sounds like!” To see your representatives put their bodies on the line and their voices in the fight. To form patrols to walk kids safely to school. To join rapid-response networks to document and alert your neighbors to immigration attacks. For mutual aid networks to deliver groceries and buy out street vendors so they can go home safe. To see your local journalists take the federal government to court. To talk to neighbor after neighbor, friend after friend, and hear yes, yes, it’s all hands on deck.
November 10, 2025 at 3:02 PM
aaronsojourner.org
Dementia, lying to hide corruption, or being an empty figurehead? None of the possibilities are good.
thehill.com/opinion/lind...
November 10, 2025 at 2:51 PM
aaronsojourner.org
Today

"After the ACA’s major provisions were implemented in 2014... displaced workers were more likely to have public coverage before job loss and less likely to lose coverage afterward."
The Virtual Economics of Poverty and Policy Seminar (VEPPS) continues next week. Date & time: Monday, November 17th at 2pm Eastern To register to receive the Zoom link: https://smith.zoom.us/meeting/register/NM_RCYTVQbC7bqoYKcLMVg Presenter: Mariana Zerpa (University of Chile) Paper Title: "Job loss and health insurance before and after the ACA" Abstract: We examine how the Affordable Care Act (ACA) altered the effects of involuntary job loss on health insurance coverage. Using matched event study models estimated on panel survey data, we document substantial declines in coverage following job loss prior to the ACA especially among middle-income workers. After the ACA’s major provisions were implemented in 2014, these losses were sharply reduced: displaced workers were more likely to have public coverage before job loss and less likely to lose coverage afterward. Heterogeneity by pre-displacement income reveals that the ACA closed gaps in baseline coverage and smoothed post-loss trajectories, particularly for middle-income individuals. Our findings highlight the ACA’s role in strengthening the insurance safety net for displaced workers.
November 10, 2025 at 1:51 PM
aaronsojourner.org
Pessimism sets in for Minnesota factories as many fear stagnant growth
www.startribune.com/minnesota-fa...
November 10, 2025 at 12:48 PM
aaronsojourner.org
GOP's One Big Beautiful Bill tax law will increase U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio from 154% three decades after without it to 183% with it, per Auerbach & @billgale.bsky.social.
www.nber.org/papers/w34455
November 10, 2025 at 12:28 PM
aaronsojourner.org
They collect data on in-app purchases in a way that mimics and represents the shares of Americans reporting purchasing the particular good or service that way.
www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi...
November 10, 2025 at 4:24 AM
aaronsojourner.org
www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi...
November 10, 2025 at 4:18 AM
aaronsojourner.org
fortune.com/2025/11/08/b...
Environment·The Boring Company Elon Musk’s Boring Company fined nearly $500K after it dumped drilling fluids into Las Vegas manholes—then ‘feigned compliance’ and was caught doing it again By Jessica Mathews By Leo Schwartz November 8, 2025 at 10:00 AM EST
November 9, 2025 at 9:08 PM
aaronsojourner.org
www.startribune.com/minneapolis-...
November 9, 2025 at 9:15 AM
aaronsojourner.org
Wow, impactful research by Luis Nunez & @katiebergh.bsky.social @centeronbudget.bsky.social!

Their fact check combined with the power of a federal court forces administration to make another $1.65 billion available to hungry Americans.

Still more to do but wow.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
The Trump administration has “found more room” in the SNAP contingency fund and will only be cutting benefits by 35 percent, the Agriculture Department said Wednesday. The USDA had previously announced a plan to cut the food stamp program by 50 percent—so why did it suddenly change its tune? The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released a report Wednesday that concluded that the Trump administration, based on its spending plan, planned to release two-thirds of the contingency fund—only about $3 billion, compared to the $4.65 billion available. The CBPP quickly filed its findings in court, and the USDA then said it would fix the “error.”
November 8, 2025 at 4:05 PM
aaronsojourner.org
Bacon x Sojourner at UMN Humphrey School Spring 2026
EVIDENCE-BASED PRACTICE & EVALUATION FOR POLICYMAKING HUMPHREY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS & COLAB AT THE CONSTELLATION FUND Evidence is the currency of effective policymaking. In an era where public trust depends on demonstrable results, policymakers must answer: Does this intervention actually work? And, if so, what are the appetite and policy levers for population-level impact? Yet a critical gap exists between demand for rigorous evaluation skills and supply of accessible, practical training. Traditional evaluation programs often emphasize theory without sufficient real-world application. THIS COURSE FLIPS THAT MODEL, DISTRIBUTING HANDS-ON PRACTICE ACROSS ALL MODULES SO STUDENTS CAN IMMEDIATELY IMPLEMENT WHAT THEY LEARN. WHAT IS THIS COURSE? An advanced graduate course bridging academic theory with real-world impact evaluation. Students will master skills in practical evaluation methods (experimental designs, quasi-experimental methods, mixed-methods approaches, implementation evaluations, and ethical community-engaged research) through weekly lectures and theory-topractice sessions. This program is uniquely hands-on: you’ll learn how evaluations actually get implemented, politics, ethics, and logistics included, while workshopping funding proposals, guided by practitioners, nonprofit leaders, and local funders. Equity is woven through every module, and you’ll leave with a polished CV, American Evaluation Association (AEA)-aligned competencies, plus deep connections across Minnesota’s social impact ecosystem. Evidence-Based Practice & Evaluation for Policymaking HUMPHREY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS & COLAB AT THE CONSTELLATION FUND PA 5390 | PA 8390 (PhD) Spring 2026 WHO WILL TEACH IT? The course is co-taught by two leading applied economists with deep expertise in rigorous evaluation methods and extensive real-world policy experience. Both instructors bring decades of experience conducting high-quality, mixed-methods evaluations and translating research findings into actionable policy recommendations. ANDREW GOODMAN-BACON, PHD (Senior Research Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) Dr. Goodman-Bacon is a principal research economist with the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute at the Minneapolis Fed and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research in economic history, health economics, public economics, and applied econometrics has been published in the Journal of Political Economy, American Economic Review, and New England Journal of Medicine. His research has already garnered over 4,000 citations and won awards from the Journal of Econometrics. AARON SOJOURNER, PHD (Senior Researcher, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research) Dr. Sojourner is a senior economist whose research focuses on labor market institutions, early childhood and K-12 education systems, and behavioral approaches to consumer finance. His work has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Economic Journal, Journal of Human Resources, and Journal of Public Economics, among others. Before joining the Upjohn Institute, Dr. Sojourner served as senior economist for labor at the U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers (2016- 2017), was tenured associate professor at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management, and currently chairs the Constellation Fund's Impact Council and serves on the Minnesota State Advisory Council on Early Childhood Care and Education.
November 7, 2025 at 10:23 PM
aaronsojourner.org
Oct 2013 data collected and could be reported.
www.bls.gov/news.release...
November 7, 2025 at 1:27 PM
aaronsojourner.org
Corrupt pol pardons fellow corrupt pols.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
November 7, 2025 at 10:43 AM
aaronsojourner.org
... Last, BLS publishes the microdata anonymized so, each month, we can see each of the 60,000ish respondent's actual hours of work, usual hours of work, industry, age...

Anyone can use a new definition they like & see how people are doing on it.

But not for Oct 2025
cps.ipums.org/cps-action/v...
November 7, 2025 at 10:35 AM
aaronsojourner.org
...BLS also publishes data on average weekly hours so we can monitor changes in that...
www.bls.gov/news.release...
November 7, 2025 at 10:35 AM
aaronsojourner.org
.. it does break down the employed between "usually works full time" and "usually works part time" based on a dividing line of 35 hours a week...

So they have a concept similar to "fully employed" and it meaures only people who usually work at least 35 hours a week...
www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...
November 7, 2025 at 10:35 AM
aaronsojourner.org
That's not true. You're spreading misinformation & should stop.

First, BLS doesn't classify anyone as "fully employed" or not. That's not a concept they use.

2nd, it classifies as employed or not. There are 4 ways to count as ”employed"

3rd...
www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...
November 7, 2025 at 10:35 AM
aaronsojourner.org
From Revelio Chief Economist, public series based on their proprietary data and model
www.linkedin.com/posts/lisaks...
November 7, 2025 at 2:48 AM