Trendlines matter! 🧐
$SPX How low will it go?

Using statistical distributions, we can visualize the range in which we should expect the 10-year Treasury yield to trade over the next 60 days. The probability cone in this chart is color-coded, with green representing 1SD and blue representing 2SD from the mean. #mortgagerates #mortgagebroker

Meanwhile, #liquidity is running out...
#RRP

The developing trade war will result in higher inflation and interest rates, as well as diminished economic growth. And it is unclear to what end. My analysis on the potential economic fallout: www.economy.com/getfile?q=BF...

Time is tik, tik, ticking away....

Tariffs and #mortgageRates How broad-based tariffs imposed by the U.S. could generate headwinds for #mortgage rates. macrotomortgage.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...

3 themes I wrote about in 2024 that will continue to drive #mortgage rates in 2025. macrotomortgage.substack.com/p/3-themes-w...

It's been EXACTLY 100 days since the #FOMC started the current cutting cycle. The #Fed has cut EXACTLY 100bps from the Fed Funds Rate. The 10-year treasury Yield is 100 bps higher today than 100 days ago. We live in a simulation! #interestrates #mortgage #mortgagebroker #mortgagerates

As counterintuitive as it may be, a hawkish tone from the #Fed could lead #mortgage rates lower in the near-term. #mortgagebroker open.substack.com/pub/macrotom...

As market expectations for future Fed Funds rate cuts (blue) become more entrenched, the 10year Treasury yield (red) rises. As counter-intuitive as it may be, yields would likely positively respond to a hawkish Fed surprise. A more hawkish Fed may calm bond markets and produce lower #mortgagerates

Heard a Fox News reporter describe the proposed tariffs on Canadian imports as being paid 100% by companies there.

Kids: Study economics.

After more than a month of consolidation, #mortgagertes may have entered into a seasonally favorable time. In the past few years, December has brought lower #mortgage rates.

This marks 43 months in a row of Core PCE above 2.5%. It also marks six months since Core PCE last improved. The last improvement occurred in June when Core PCE fell to 2.6% from 2.8% the month prior. #inflation

The entire #FED Rate cutting cycle is already priced in. #mortgagerates have nowhere to go. Subscribe to my #Free Substack open.substack.com/pub/macrotom...