Aaron Biek
@aaronbiek.bsky.social
Retired lawyer. Sailing and auto enthusiast. Beer nerd.
Got it. Maybe I’ll give it a watch. Maybe.
June 4, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Got it. Maybe I’ll give it a watch. Maybe.
The OBBB will drive investors to ask for more interest on govt bonds to compensate for risk of inflation. Lowering rates only makes that *worse* and blows out spreads.
June 4, 2025 at 1:22 PM
The OBBB will drive investors to ask for more interest on govt bonds to compensate for risk of inflation. Lowering rates only makes that *worse* and blows out spreads.
Can someone please explain to this idiot that lowering the overnight rate while passing a massive spending bill will not lower mid and long term rates for businesses and consumers?
June 4, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Can someone please explain to this idiot that lowering the overnight rate while passing a massive spending bill will not lower mid and long term rates for businesses and consumers?
Isn’t this just a stab at the All-In Pod guys? I haven’t watched it, but the brief description sounded like a skewering of Sacks, Chamath, J-Cal, and David with very minor changes so as not to be exactly those people.
June 4, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Isn’t this just a stab at the All-In Pod guys? I haven’t watched it, but the brief description sounded like a skewering of Sacks, Chamath, J-Cal, and David with very minor changes so as not to be exactly those people.
I know you are right, but I also believe there are a lot of people who genuinely don’t believe in supply and demand curves. Macro economics does not have the same sort of buy-in as something like biology.
May 6, 2025 at 3:46 PM
I know you are right, but I also believe there are a lot of people who genuinely don’t believe in supply and demand curves. Macro economics does not have the same sort of buy-in as something like biology.
The article tip-toes around, but leaves out the single most important element of the equation: interest rates. The risk-free rate is up drastically over the 36 month period discussed. Investors are demanding “such a high rate of return” because they could just buy bonds (or whatever else) instead.
May 6, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The article tip-toes around, but leaves out the single most important element of the equation: interest rates. The risk-free rate is up drastically over the 36 month period discussed. Investors are demanding “such a high rate of return” because they could just buy bonds (or whatever else) instead.
IZ is just a way to put a progressive spin on being a NIMBY. It’s posturing, not policy. The only cure for runaway demand is increased supply.
People like to blame the boogeyman — “greedy” developers — but developers only demand whatever return macro conditions require.
People like to blame the boogeyman — “greedy” developers — but developers only demand whatever return macro conditions require.
May 6, 2025 at 3:31 PM
IZ is just a way to put a progressive spin on being a NIMBY. It’s posturing, not policy. The only cure for runaway demand is increased supply.
People like to blame the boogeyman — “greedy” developers — but developers only demand whatever return macro conditions require.
People like to blame the boogeyman — “greedy” developers — but developers only demand whatever return macro conditions require.
Don’t come after me with pitchforks. The above *is not* an endorsement
March 4, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Don’t come after me with pitchforks. The above *is not* an endorsement
If you kill the economy now, you can blame it on Biden + you get to take credit for the inevitable recovery.
Also, recovery likely continues through the next election, netting you (presumably) a win due to the laughably short attention span of the average American. It’s kinda genius, actually.
Also, recovery likely continues through the next election, netting you (presumably) a win due to the laughably short attention span of the average American. It’s kinda genius, actually.
March 4, 2025 at 11:16 PM
If you kill the economy now, you can blame it on Biden + you get to take credit for the inevitable recovery.
Also, recovery likely continues through the next election, netting you (presumably) a win due to the laughably short attention span of the average American. It’s kinda genius, actually.
Also, recovery likely continues through the next election, netting you (presumably) a win due to the laughably short attention span of the average American. It’s kinda genius, actually.
Sorry for your loss, Ben
February 19, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Sorry for your loss, Ben
Fair. Hopefully, we can all take what AI has to say with a grain of salt the way most of us would the today’s internet sources.
February 13, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Fair. Hopefully, we can all take what AI has to say with a grain of salt the way most of us would the today’s internet sources.
If we’re talking about non-price information, I don’t see how this is different than today. Active managers conceal proprietary “research” all the time until they’ve taken a position, and then they publish that info to push prices up or down. What am I missing?
February 13, 2025 at 10:31 PM
If we’re talking about non-price information, I don’t see how this is different than today. Active managers conceal proprietary “research” all the time until they’ve taken a position, and then they publish that info to push prices up or down. What am I missing?
Doesn’t sound too different from human behavior to me. People don’t change their minds based on additional info; it’s just that the market eventually makes them pay for being wrong (at least, in theory).
February 13, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Doesn’t sound too different from human behavior to me. People don’t change their minds based on additional info; it’s just that the market eventually makes them pay for being wrong (at least, in theory).
Don’t the exchanges themselves have incentive to publish accurate data for market clearing? If they don’t, a new exchange might become more attractive for listing, no?
February 13, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Don’t the exchanges themselves have incentive to publish accurate data for market clearing? If they don’t, a new exchange might become more attractive for listing, no?
People who cannot distinguish between a Treasury Bill and and a Treasury Bond should refrain from opining about the effects of fiscal policy and the yield curve on every day economic activity.
February 13, 2025 at 3:02 PM
People who cannot distinguish between a Treasury Bill and and a Treasury Bond should refrain from opining about the effects of fiscal policy and the yield curve on every day economic activity.
The next big financial crisis will be caused by crypto. Both tech and Wall Street (with help from Treasury).
February 10, 2025 at 5:54 PM
The next big financial crisis will be caused by crypto. Both tech and Wall Street (with help from Treasury).
I’d be interested to see what % of the jobs produced since 2020 (Covid) were of various types (goods/services/regulatory/admin), white collar/blue collar, etc).
February 7, 2025 at 4:35 PM
I’d be interested to see what % of the jobs produced since 2020 (Covid) were of various types (goods/services/regulatory/admin), white collar/blue collar, etc).
2. When we got to $16 for eggs for a month, you said, “You can’t even buy an Applebee’s meal for that anymore.”
Due to a constant barrage of $9.99 combo ads that Applebee’s is running, my wife responded aloud, “Clearly he is not a man of the people.” She had no idea why this made me crack up.
Due to a constant barrage of $9.99 combo ads that Applebee’s is running, my wife responded aloud, “Clearly he is not a man of the people.” She had no idea why this made me crack up.
January 30, 2025 at 6:01 PM
2. When we got to $16 for eggs for a month, you said, “You can’t even buy an Applebee’s meal for that anymore.”
Due to a constant barrage of $9.99 combo ads that Applebee’s is running, my wife responded aloud, “Clearly he is not a man of the people.” She had no idea why this made me crack up.
Due to a constant barrage of $9.99 combo ads that Applebee’s is running, my wife responded aloud, “Clearly he is not a man of the people.” She had no idea why this made me crack up.
Nice show today, Ben!
Two (hopefully) funny notes from my wife:
1. I put the show on our Sonos as we were getting out of bed and my wife asked with disdain, “Are you putting on Animal Noises?”
I think you must now rename the podcast.
Two (hopefully) funny notes from my wife:
1. I put the show on our Sonos as we were getting out of bed and my wife asked with disdain, “Are you putting on Animal Noises?”
I think you must now rename the podcast.
January 30, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Nice show today, Ben!
Two (hopefully) funny notes from my wife:
1. I put the show on our Sonos as we were getting out of bed and my wife asked with disdain, “Are you putting on Animal Noises?”
I think you must now rename the podcast.
Two (hopefully) funny notes from my wife:
1. I put the show on our Sonos as we were getting out of bed and my wife asked with disdain, “Are you putting on Animal Noises?”
I think you must now rename the podcast.
Small blow ups, the responsible pay; big blow ups, the public pays. Let’s hope this is still the former.
January 22, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Small blow ups, the responsible pay; big blow ups, the public pays. Let’s hope this is still the former.