Alex Armlovich
@aarmlovi.bsky.social
Sr. Housing Analyst @niskanencenter🏗️ | Urban Econ 🌐🔰🚋 | @worksinprogress contributor | @opennyforall member | @yimbytown alum | former @cbcny |
Legalize housing. Tax land. End poverty with cash
Legalize housing. Tax land. End poverty with cash
Bright spots in US transit:
After opening its 3rd basic Bus Rapid Transit route for just $10M/mile, Albany didn't just exceed pre-pandemic ridership
They just set an all-time CDTA ridership record. Never been a better time for transit in Albany than now
BRT is the future
After opening its 3rd basic Bus Rapid Transit route for just $10M/mile, Albany didn't just exceed pre-pandemic ridership
They just set an all-time CDTA ridership record. Never been a better time for transit in Albany than now
BRT is the future
September 27, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Bright spots in US transit:
After opening its 3rd basic Bus Rapid Transit route for just $10M/mile, Albany didn't just exceed pre-pandemic ridership
They just set an all-time CDTA ridership record. Never been a better time for transit in Albany than now
BRT is the future
After opening its 3rd basic Bus Rapid Transit route for just $10M/mile, Albany didn't just exceed pre-pandemic ridership
They just set an all-time CDTA ridership record. Never been a better time for transit in Albany than now
BRT is the future
Metro NYC is not out of the woods, though!
City of Yes is nice but it only adds ~10k/year over the business cycle. The suburbs haven't reformed at all & JC is getting a NIMBY mayor. This wave will pass
The only good news is this wave proves supply chains *can* warp to 50k/yr instantly
City of Yes is nice but it only adds ~10k/year over the business cycle. The suburbs haven't reformed at all & JC is getting a NIMBY mayor. This wave will pass
The only good news is this wave proves supply chains *can* warp to 50k/yr instantly
September 26, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Metro NYC is not out of the woods, though!
City of Yes is nice but it only adds ~10k/year over the business cycle. The suburbs haven't reformed at all & JC is getting a NIMBY mayor. This wave will pass
The only good news is this wave proves supply chains *can* warp to 50k/yr instantly
City of Yes is nice but it only adds ~10k/year over the business cycle. The suburbs haven't reformed at all & JC is getting a NIMBY mayor. This wave will pass
The only good news is this wave proves supply chains *can* warp to 50k/yr instantly
Before housing is legal, construction costs don't set housing prices. After housing is legal, construction costs are EVERYTHING
We have a lot of zoning & cost reform left. But assembling the supply chain to double production overnight is already feasible. Don't let inputs distract you from upzoning
We have a lot of zoning & cost reform left. But assembling the supply chain to double production overnight is already feasible. Don't let inputs distract you from upzoning
September 26, 2025 at 12:20 AM
Before housing is legal, construction costs don't set housing prices. After housing is legal, construction costs are EVERYTHING
We have a lot of zoning & cost reform left. But assembling the supply chain to double production overnight is already feasible. Don't let inputs distract you from upzoning
We have a lot of zoning & cost reform left. But assembling the supply chain to double production overnight is already feasible. Don't let inputs distract you from upzoning
Everyone take a moment to gloat over the FinTwit folks who claimed labor & supply chains make quantum leaps in multifamily housing production impossible
"What about teh lumber", they said. "What about teh labor", they said
Then NYC simply exploded to completion levels unseen since 1965
"What about teh lumber", they said. "What about teh labor", they said
Then NYC simply exploded to completion levels unseen since 1965
September 26, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Everyone take a moment to gloat over the FinTwit folks who claimed labor & supply chains make quantum leaps in multifamily housing production impossible
"What about teh lumber", they said. "What about teh labor", they said
Then NYC simply exploded to completion levels unseen since 1965
"What about teh lumber", they said. "What about teh labor", they said
Then NYC simply exploded to completion levels unseen since 1965
It turns out the tilting feature on the new Acelas hasn't passed safety testing yet, so they have to take curves *slower* than the legacy fleet with authorized tilting
That's the other reason they're running so slow at first 😔
It'll get better eventually. But still a bummer
That's the other reason they're running so slow at first 😔
It'll get better eventually. But still a bummer
August 29, 2025 at 5:12 PM
It turns out the tilting feature on the new Acelas hasn't passed safety testing yet, so they have to take curves *slower* than the legacy fleet with authorized tilting
That's the other reason they're running so slow at first 😔
It'll get better eventually. But still a bummer
That's the other reason they're running so slow at first 😔
It'll get better eventually. But still a bummer
Today's Acela launch will drive Amtrak NEC profitability, even as the 27% capacity boost cuts dynamically priced fares
At first it seems they'll use the faster trains to "pad" existing schedules, boosting on-time performance
After observation they should be speeding up the official schedules!
At first it seems they'll use the faster trains to "pad" existing schedules, boosting on-time performance
After observation they should be speeding up the official schedules!
August 28, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Today's Acela launch will drive Amtrak NEC profitability, even as the 27% capacity boost cuts dynamically priced fares
At first it seems they'll use the faster trains to "pad" existing schedules, boosting on-time performance
After observation they should be speeding up the official schedules!
At first it seems they'll use the faster trains to "pad" existing schedules, boosting on-time performance
After observation they should be speeding up the official schedules!
It's not clear why Mayor Bass tweeted out this self-portrait of what she thinks about LA Metro—the riders, the pandemic ridership recovery, & Metro's farebox revenue
If I were the mayor of Los Angeles I would simply not declare war on my brand new metro system!
If I were the mayor of Los Angeles I would simply not declare war on my brand new metro system!
August 20, 2025 at 11:55 PM
It's not clear why Mayor Bass tweeted out this self-portrait of what she thinks about LA Metro—the riders, the pandemic ridership recovery, & Metro's farebox revenue
If I were the mayor of Los Angeles I would simply not declare war on my brand new metro system!
If I were the mayor of Los Angeles I would simply not declare war on my brand new metro system!
Maybe there's an offline barrier to finding CMAQ money, maybe the already-programmed CMAQ uses are too important, or something else?
But the fact is that CMAQ highway funds are flexing to SEPTA this year as previously and apolitically scheduled
This is wonky centrist stuff, not radical
But the fact is that CMAQ highway funds are flexing to SEPTA this year as previously and apolitically scheduled
This is wonky centrist stuff, not radical
August 13, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Maybe there's an offline barrier to finding CMAQ money, maybe the already-programmed CMAQ uses are too important, or something else?
But the fact is that CMAQ highway funds are flexing to SEPTA this year as previously and apolitically scheduled
This is wonky centrist stuff, not radical
But the fact is that CMAQ highway funds are flexing to SEPTA this year as previously and apolitically scheduled
This is wonky centrist stuff, not radical
Flexing the easy-to-flex federal highway pots like CMAQ & STP is an apolitical, technical process
Believe it or not, it's true of SEPTA's 2026 budget as well!
SEPTA gets $40M of CMAQ flex highway cash this year even with all the cuts. And nobody is mad or thinks it's political
Believe it or not, it's true of SEPTA's 2026 budget as well!
SEPTA gets $40M of CMAQ flex highway cash this year even with all the cuts. And nobody is mad or thinks it's political
August 13, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Flexing the easy-to-flex federal highway pots like CMAQ & STP is an apolitical, technical process
Believe it or not, it's true of SEPTA's 2026 budget as well!
SEPTA gets $40M of CMAQ flex highway cash this year even with all the cuts. And nobody is mad or thinks it's political
Believe it or not, it's true of SEPTA's 2026 budget as well!
SEPTA gets $40M of CMAQ flex highway cash this year even with all the cuts. And nobody is mad or thinks it's political
We also anticipated recent silly questions question about calling housing reform """deregulation"""👇
People get themselves into trouble with symbolic ideological totems like this
Call it whatever you want, but in the end either you think houses should be illegal near trains or you don't
People get themselves into trouble with symbolic ideological totems like this
Call it whatever you want, but in the end either you think houses should be illegal near trains or you don't
August 11, 2025 at 9:55 PM
We also anticipated recent silly questions question about calling housing reform """deregulation"""👇
People get themselves into trouble with symbolic ideological totems like this
Call it whatever you want, but in the end either you think houses should be illegal near trains or you don't
People get themselves into trouble with symbolic ideological totems like this
Call it whatever you want, but in the end either you think houses should be illegal near trains or you don't
In this podcast we cover the new Senate Banking megabill (ROAD to Housing), but also fun questions like:
-Why do skyscrapers exist?
-How do we know where people would build more if they could?
-Are there actually gaping holes in the simple version of the Homevoter Hypothesis?
-Why do skyscrapers exist?
-How do we know where people would build more if they could?
-Are there actually gaping holes in the simple version of the Homevoter Hypothesis?
August 11, 2025 at 9:53 PM
In this podcast we cover the new Senate Banking megabill (ROAD to Housing), but also fun questions like:
-Why do skyscrapers exist?
-How do we know where people would build more if they could?
-Are there actually gaping holes in the simple version of the Homevoter Hypothesis?
-Why do skyscrapers exist?
-How do we know where people would build more if they could?
-Are there actually gaping holes in the simple version of the Homevoter Hypothesis?
Pleased to join Cardiff Garcia on @innovateeconomy.bsky.social's show, on the new ROAD to Housing megabill that passed Senate Banking 24-0
It's a promising 1st step, led by Chair Scott & Sen Warren with ideas from every member—and their 1st housing markup in almost 20 years
eig.org/newbazaar/is...
It's a promising 1st step, led by Chair Scott & Sen Warren with ideas from every member—and their 1st housing markup in almost 20 years
eig.org/newbazaar/is...
August 8, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Pleased to join Cardiff Garcia on @innovateeconomy.bsky.social's show, on the new ROAD to Housing megabill that passed Senate Banking 24-0
It's a promising 1st step, led by Chair Scott & Sen Warren with ideas from every member—and their 1st housing markup in almost 20 years
eig.org/newbazaar/is...
It's a promising 1st step, led by Chair Scott & Sen Warren with ideas from every member—and their 1st housing markup in almost 20 years
eig.org/newbazaar/is...
Is Matt Hutchins on Bluesky?
August 8, 2025 at 2:23 AM
Is Matt Hutchins on Bluesky?
It's never bad to prove this anew: It's true that housing markets are segmented!
But they're segmented in the exact opposite way as NIMBYs claim: New supply *barely lowers luxury rents*, it mostly *tanks rents in the old buildings* it draws tenants from
But they're segmented in the exact opposite way as NIMBYs claim: New supply *barely lowers luxury rents*, it mostly *tanks rents in the old buildings* it draws tenants from
July 31, 2025 at 8:44 PM
It's never bad to prove this anew: It's true that housing markets are segmented!
But they're segmented in the exact opposite way as NIMBYs claim: New supply *barely lowers luxury rents*, it mostly *tanks rents in the old buildings* it draws tenants from
But they're segmented in the exact opposite way as NIMBYs claim: New supply *barely lowers luxury rents*, it mostly *tanks rents in the old buildings* it draws tenants from
Fresh research confirming chain-of-address filtering is as powerful in Class A residential as the "flight-to-quality" Class A office phenomenon 👇
New housing supply lowers rents the most in *Class C old buildings*, not the rents in other new Class A buildings!
x.com/PewStates/st...
New housing supply lowers rents the most in *Class C old buildings*, not the rents in other new Class A buildings!
x.com/PewStates/st...
July 31, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Fresh research confirming chain-of-address filtering is as powerful in Class A residential as the "flight-to-quality" Class A office phenomenon 👇
New housing supply lowers rents the most in *Class C old buildings*, not the rents in other new Class A buildings!
x.com/PewStates/st...
New housing supply lowers rents the most in *Class C old buildings*, not the rents in other new Class A buildings!
x.com/PewStates/st...
Senate Banking has just passed the housing megabill out of markup 24-0
First housing markup in almost two decades, and we're including almost every bipartisan housing idea on the Hill in SB jurisdiction!
First housing markup in almost two decades, and we're including almost every bipartisan housing idea on the Hill in SB jurisdiction!
July 29, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Senate Banking has just passed the housing megabill out of markup 24-0
First housing markup in almost two decades, and we're including almost every bipartisan housing idea on the Hill in SB jurisdiction!
First housing markup in almost two decades, and we're including almost every bipartisan housing idea on the Hill in SB jurisdiction!
Thrilled to announce today @RepScottPeters, @RepBlakeMoore, @brianschatz, & @Jim_Banks are reintroducing the bipartisan Build More Housing Near Transit Act!
The bill protects taxpayers & transit riders alike from federal transit grants to cities that ban housing near transit👇
The bill protects taxpayers & transit riders alike from federal transit grants to cities that ban housing near transit👇
July 22, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Thrilled to announce today @RepScottPeters, @RepBlakeMoore, @brianschatz, & @Jim_Banks are reintroducing the bipartisan Build More Housing Near Transit Act!
The bill protects taxpayers & transit riders alike from federal transit grants to cities that ban housing near transit👇
The bill protects taxpayers & transit riders alike from federal transit grants to cities that ban housing near transit👇
Nobody panic--Amtrak's procurement & project management teams are on it
Acela II might be half a decade late, but they promise it'll be here in "Spring 2025"
The haters of course will note that meteorological Spring 2025 is over
But astronomical Spring 2025 technically doesn't end til June 21st!
Acela II might be half a decade late, but they promise it'll be here in "Spring 2025"
The haters of course will note that meteorological Spring 2025 is over
But astronomical Spring 2025 technically doesn't end til June 21st!
May 23, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Nobody panic--Amtrak's procurement & project management teams are on it
Acela II might be half a decade late, but they promise it'll be here in "Spring 2025"
The haters of course will note that meteorological Spring 2025 is over
But astronomical Spring 2025 technically doesn't end til June 21st!
Acela II might be half a decade late, but they promise it'll be here in "Spring 2025"
The haters of course will note that meteorological Spring 2025 is over
But astronomical Spring 2025 technically doesn't end til June 21st!
PHA is recently dominating specifically on the acquisition side
They're saving tons of money & acquiring units on the cheap—like a real estate vulture fund, but on behalf of the public sector
And their savvy is already winning respect from Philly ReTwit operators
bsky.app/profile/buil...
They're saving tons of money & acquiring units on the cheap—like a real estate vulture fund, but on behalf of the public sector
And their savvy is already winning respect from Philly ReTwit operators
bsky.app/profile/buil...
May 22, 2025 at 8:30 PM
PHA is recently dominating specifically on the acquisition side
They're saving tons of money & acquiring units on the cheap—like a real estate vulture fund, but on behalf of the public sector
And their savvy is already winning respect from Philly ReTwit operators
bsky.app/profile/buil...
They're saving tons of money & acquiring units on the cheap—like a real estate vulture fund, but on behalf of the public sector
And their savvy is already winning respect from Philly ReTwit operators
bsky.app/profile/buil...
Is there anyone in this country doing more for public housing ops, efficiency, & reputation than the Philly Housing Authority?
PHA's success shows Faircloth discourse has been a misleading excuse for inaction by Left-NIMBY keyboard warriors
PHA is dominating the Philly multifam market right now💪
PHA's success shows Faircloth discourse has been a misleading excuse for inaction by Left-NIMBY keyboard warriors
PHA is dominating the Philly multifam market right now💪
May 22, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Is there anyone in this country doing more for public housing ops, efficiency, & reputation than the Philly Housing Authority?
PHA's success shows Faircloth discourse has been a misleading excuse for inaction by Left-NIMBY keyboard warriors
PHA is dominating the Philly multifam market right now💪
PHA's success shows Faircloth discourse has been a misleading excuse for inaction by Left-NIMBY keyboard warriors
PHA is dominating the Philly multifam market right now💪
It's not just random PR gloss coming out of nowhere, I was covering this reform back in 2023
The surprise is more why are they celebrating this only now, years later after they first decided to change course?
x.com/aarmlovi/sta...
The surprise is more why are they celebrating this only now, years later after they first decided to change course?
x.com/aarmlovi/sta...
May 15, 2025 at 10:04 PM
It's not just random PR gloss coming out of nowhere, I was covering this reform back in 2023
The surprise is more why are they celebrating this only now, years later after they first decided to change course?
x.com/aarmlovi/sta...
The surprise is more why are they celebrating this only now, years later after they first decided to change course?
x.com/aarmlovi/sta...
Even by Left-NIMBY standards this story shocks the conscience:
100% affordable housing, built by the Public Housing Authority, delayed 6 years. Costs spiking despite cutting the project to just 57 homes
And now the "Equity Groups" linked to the councilmember liken these 57 homes to Tuskegee
100% affordable housing, built by the Public Housing Authority, delayed 6 years. Costs spiking despite cutting the project to just 57 homes
And now the "Equity Groups" linked to the councilmember liken these 57 homes to Tuskegee
May 5, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Even by Left-NIMBY standards this story shocks the conscience:
100% affordable housing, built by the Public Housing Authority, delayed 6 years. Costs spiking despite cutting the project to just 57 homes
And now the "Equity Groups" linked to the councilmember liken these 57 homes to Tuskegee
100% affordable housing, built by the Public Housing Authority, delayed 6 years. Costs spiking despite cutting the project to just 57 homes
And now the "Equity Groups" linked to the councilmember liken these 57 homes to Tuskegee
It's wild to call this quote market-oriented
I've called for RGB rents set at costs regardless of supply & demand—that's decommodification, not markets!
I deliver my statutory duty: At-cost rents, stably set regardless of market forces
When did strict, at-cost rent controls become "the market"?
I've called for RGB rents set at costs regardless of supply & demand—that's decommodification, not markets!
I deliver my statutory duty: At-cost rents, stably set regardless of market forces
When did strict, at-cost rent controls become "the market"?
May 2, 2025 at 5:43 PM
It's wild to call this quote market-oriented
I've called for RGB rents set at costs regardless of supply & demand—that's decommodification, not markets!
I deliver my statutory duty: At-cost rents, stably set regardless of market forces
When did strict, at-cost rent controls become "the market"?
I've called for RGB rents set at costs regardless of supply & demand—that's decommodification, not markets!
I deliver my statutory duty: At-cost rents, stably set regardless of market forces
When did strict, at-cost rent controls become "the market"?
Asked my cat why America would voluntarily end the US-led global order and to her credit she gave it some real thought
April 11, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Asked my cat why America would voluntarily end the US-led global order and to her credit she gave it some real thought
When Vietnam cuts all trade barriers, & even goes so far as to adjust their fiscal & monetary policy to eliminate their multilateral surplus, they'll still have a bilateral trade surplus w/the US
In Trump's Critical Trade Theory, that's still not good enough—"they must be hiding something"
In Trump's Critical Trade Theory, that's still not good enough—"they must be hiding something"
April 5, 2025 at 2:51 PM
When Vietnam cuts all trade barriers, & even goes so far as to adjust their fiscal & monetary policy to eliminate their multilateral surplus, they'll still have a bilateral trade surplus w/the US
In Trump's Critical Trade Theory, that's still not good enough—"they must be hiding something"
In Trump's Critical Trade Theory, that's still not good enough—"they must be hiding something"