Ala Alrababah
@aalrababah.bsky.social
Assistant Professor at Bocconi University. Research on immigration, refugees, political violence. https://www.ala-alrababah.com
On spatial dependency we report results when clustering at several levels (incl. stage). We also now do permutation inference at stage level too to account for spatial dependence. See attached
September 17, 2025 at 2:44 PM
On spatial dependency we report results when clustering at several levels (incl. stage). We also now do permutation inference at stage level too to account for spatial dependence. See attached
Thanks again Vittorio. We actually had looked at only small municipalities (less than median size, 440 people) but hadn't included it in the paper. You can see it here :)
September 17, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Thanks again Vittorio. We actually had looked at only small municipalities (less than median size, 440 people) but hadn't included it in the paper. You can see it here :)
Thank you for engaging! We actually don't see an effect on elections happening in the same year as the Tour (usually a couple of months before the Tour begins). Only the election after the Tour
September 16, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Thank you for engaging! We actually don't see an effect on elections happening in the same year as the Tour (usually a couple of months before the Tour begins). Only the election after the Tour
Davide thanks for engaging! We conduct analyses after subsetting to towns that have been exposed at least once--so variation comes from timing of exposure. Still possible that switching off the treatment can increase FR voting. We look at this in the appendix. Overall effects are small
September 16, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Davide thanks for engaging! We conduct analyses after subsetting to towns that have been exposed at least once--so variation comes from timing of exposure. Still possible that switching off the treatment can increase FR voting. We look at this in the appendix. Overall effects are small
Overall, we argue that short and highly visible place-based interventions can have political consequences, likely by reducing feelings of neglect in left-behind areas
September 16, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Overall, we argue that short and highly visible place-based interventions can have political consequences, likely by reducing feelings of neglect in left-behind areas
The results are robust to multiple specifications and tests
September 16, 2025 at 10:38 AM
The results are robust to multiple specifications and tests
Suggestive evidence from a two-wave survey around the 2025 Tour is also consistent with the symbolic mechanism.
September 16, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Suggestive evidence from a two-wave survey around the 2025 Tour is also consistent with the symbolic mechanism.
We find mixed evidence for the economic channel (municipal GDP per capita increases, but no effect on unemployment) and more evidence in support of the symbolic channel (larger decline in far-right voting when a French wins a stage)
September 16, 2025 at 10:35 AM
We find mixed evidence for the economic channel (municipal GDP per capita increases, but no effect on unemployment) and more evidence in support of the symbolic channel (larger decline in far-right voting when a French wins a stage)
We also find that the effect is largest in poorer municipalities and where the far-right had previous support.
September 16, 2025 at 10:33 AM
We also find that the effect is largest in poorer municipalities and where the far-right had previous support.
On average, being on the Tour route lowers far-right vote share by about 0.03–0.04 SD. In recent elections, the effect exceeds 0.1 SD. This lines up with the surge in far-right support — suggesting the Tour is most effective at shifting newer, less committed voters away from the far right.
September 16, 2025 at 10:31 AM
On average, being on the Tour route lowers far-right vote share by about 0.03–0.04 SD. In recent elections, the effect exceeds 0.1 SD. This lines up with the surge in far-right support — suggesting the Tour is most effective at shifting newer, less committed voters away from the far right.
Existing research finds that far-right parties do well in "left-behind" places. We argue that the tour can shape this in two ways: 1- Short boosts in local economy 2- Symbolically through national visibility and recognition.
September 16, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Existing research finds that far-right parties do well in "left-behind" places. We argue that the tour can shape this in two ways: 1- Short boosts in local economy 2- Symbolically through national visibility and recognition.
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
September 16, 2025 at 10:25 AM
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Apply to EuroWEPS 12/13! We're organizing the next EuroWEPS workshops at Bocconi (Nov 14) and EUI (Dec 15) to discuss designs/papers focusing on causal inference. No presentations, just constructive discussions. Early career scholars are especially welcome to apply! Submission deadline is Sep 30
August 14, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Apply to EuroWEPS 12/13! We're organizing the next EuroWEPS workshops at Bocconi (Nov 14) and EUI (Dec 15) to discuss designs/papers focusing on causal inference. No presentations, just constructive discussions. Early career scholars are especially welcome to apply! Submission deadline is Sep 30
With @ginvernizzi.bsky.social, @carloprato.bsky.social and Shigeo Hirano, we're thrilled to announce the inaugural Bocconi-Columbia Conference on Political, Social, and Economic Inequality. 📅 Mark your calendars: June 19-20, 2025 at Bocconi University!
November 27, 2024 at 4:45 PM
With @ginvernizzi.bsky.social, @carloprato.bsky.social and Shigeo Hirano, we're thrilled to announce the inaugural Bocconi-Columbia Conference on Political, Social, and Economic Inequality. 📅 Mark your calendars: June 19-20, 2025 at Bocconi University!
Instead, we show suggestive evidence consistent with a top-down process using parliamentary bills in Ticino and an implication of Zaller's model of public opinion formation.
November 26, 2024 at 4:19 PM
Instead, we show suggestive evidence consistent with a top-down process using parliamentary bills in Ticino and an implication of Zaller's model of public opinion formation.
Despite narratives of overcrowdedness and over-congestion, we don't find an actual effect on an important indicator of density stress--traffic.
November 26, 2024 at 4:19 PM
Despite narratives of overcrowdedness and over-congestion, we don't find an actual effect on an important indicator of density stress--traffic.
Unlike many recent studies, migration here is not from geographically and culturally distant immigrants or refugees. Instead, it's largely by people living just across the Swiss border to areas just inside the border. We don't find that liberalization increased cultural concerns.
November 26, 2024 at 4:16 PM
Unlike many recent studies, migration here is not from geographically and culturally distant immigrants or refugees. Instead, it's largely by people living just across the Swiss border to areas just inside the border. We don't find that liberalization increased cultural concerns.
This is also in line with the findings by @andreasbeerli.bsky.social et al in AER.
November 26, 2024 at 4:15 PM
This is also in line with the findings by @andreasbeerli.bsky.social et al in AER.
What explains these findings? We do not find that border liberalization worsened real or perceived economic outcomes.
November 26, 2024 at 4:14 PM
What explains these findings? We do not find that border liberalization worsened real or perceived economic outcomes.
Border liberalization also increased voting for #farRright parties in the most affected areas by over 6 percentage points.
November 26, 2024 at 4:13 PM
Border liberalization also increased voting for #farRright parties in the most affected areas by over 6 percentage points.
To study this, we examine the effect of border liberalization using a diff-in-diff, comparing regions adjacent to border crossing with areas slightly farther inside #Switzerland.
November 26, 2024 at 4:11 PM
To study this, we examine the effect of border liberalization using a diff-in-diff, comparing regions adjacent to border crossing with areas slightly farther inside #Switzerland.
New paper in @apsrjournal.bsky.social with @andreasbeerli.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, and Dalston Ward about #immigration and voting for the #FarRight in #Switzerland
November 26, 2024 at 4:11 PM
New paper in @apsrjournal.bsky.social with @andreasbeerli.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, and Dalston Ward about #immigration and voting for the #FarRight in #Switzerland