I think it was JP @japersrink.bsky.social made the point in one of his “narrative” posts citing Corey’s A3Z work that the Caps strengths at retrieving the puck in the Off zone were negated by CAR’s mobile Dmen and CAR exploited a Caps weakness retrieving picks in their D zone. So spot on.

Several of those both ways in this series. Haven’t been counting but it does seem like a lot of posts have been hit. 🤷🏻

Gorgeous day to watch the capitals. . .no matter how it goes

Despite how bad that game 5?looked, that series is not done. Any chance Stolarz comes back?

@peterhassett.net I guess the one question in this case is: Would McM’s stats look better than the Eller stats in your post? Carbs has to believe that is the case, especially in the context of this matchup with the Canes.

I got to believe the underlying stats are going to look different than Tue game tho. Was at the game and it felt different. Might just be because I was in the 400 section today and could see the whole game while I was in the lower bowl where Caps shoot 2x on - seems like whole game was at other end

Well, it’s good to remind everyone that one of the longest droughts in history is followed by another pretty long drought of 31 years (I think they won in 1994).

I probably should’ve said 3 were largely forgettable. Forgot the series against the Rangers last year. LoL. Like I said, forgettable.

I still think Oshie getting hurt was the difference in what was a very tight series. Losing Wilson in that FLA series was a huge blow. It’s hard not to wonder what might’ve been if Oshie stayed healthy in 2019 against CAR. Hoping they can stay largely healthy through the remainder of these playoffs!

@peterhassett.net I smell, at a minimum, a Patreon post digging into this. Was at the game and it didn’t at all seem like PLD’s line got caved in, but I wasn’t keeping stats. The eye test was that the #ALLCAPS mismanaged puck after the soft call on PLD for tripping that led to 1st goal.

Appreciate the response. Watching NJD v CAR now, haven’t seen NJD play in a while, so maybe my perception is off.

Not questioning the methodology. I do recall your model being one of the only ones to predict that WAS would win it all in 2018.

Interesting, there are certainly a few skaters on WAS that have recently broken (to the upside) from their trends. Is that also a factor? In general, if everyone is healthy on both teams, I’d take that statement at face value but since that is not case, the outputs are a bit confusing. Curious.

Is the NJD %age in 2nd round higher than WAS %age due to the small likelihood that they could play MTL in second round? I’d suspect that those numbers are different than looking at WAS vs NJD in isolation, no?

Wonder how these stories will age. If Ovi wins another Cup (or even 2) before he retires they’ll look even more ridiculous. Shame it took so long for Carbs to be ready to take over the big club. A few wasted years with the wrong coaches, a pandemic and no goalies.

Scary. I was hoping it would be incompetence and grift. Seems like they are being more effective the we can afford them to be if we hope to preserve our liberal democratic constitutional order. Sigh.

Really puts it into context!