@555555rando.bsky.social
I agree that it’s the best available method, but it’s worth keeping those limitations in mind, particularly as BLS underfunding their survey operations is starting to make news.
June 6, 2025 at 4:31 PM
I agree that it’s the best available method, but it’s worth keeping those limitations in mind, particularly as BLS underfunding their survey operations is starting to make news.
So when the economy starts souring, the survey takers experience a much harder time getting responses out of smaller businesses because they are more worried about keeping their businesses alive then answering a voluntary unpaid survey. Just like any poll, you can end up with selection bias.
June 6, 2025 at 4:27 PM
So when the economy starts souring, the survey takers experience a much harder time getting responses out of smaller businesses because they are more worried about keeping their businesses alive then answering a voluntary unpaid survey. Just like any poll, you can end up with selection bias.
A less enthusiastic perspective: I worked with the JOLTS survey contractor (not the economists) back in 2016 and found it has known weaknesses particularly around small and medium sized businesses during economic downturns. Big companies automate their survey responses but smaller companies don’t.
June 6, 2025 at 4:22 PM
A less enthusiastic perspective: I worked with the JOLTS survey contractor (not the economists) back in 2016 and found it has known weaknesses particularly around small and medium sized businesses during economic downturns. Big companies automate their survey responses but smaller companies don’t.
I’m ecstatic they took his big dumb hammer away but - yeah - the Supreme Court is full of unitary executive nutcases.
They also let the sectorial stuff stand so I’m guessing he’s going to drive a truck through that authority next.
They also let the sectorial stuff stand so I’m guessing he’s going to drive a truck through that authority next.
May 29, 2025 at 1:01 AM
I’m ecstatic they took his big dumb hammer away but - yeah - the Supreme Court is full of unitary executive nutcases.
They also let the sectorial stuff stand so I’m guessing he’s going to drive a truck through that authority next.
They also let the sectorial stuff stand so I’m guessing he’s going to drive a truck through that authority next.
So we’re shifting risk to the FDIC and deposit holders to *maybe* finance tax breaks for the wealthy. Great.
May 27, 2025 at 7:04 PM
So we’re shifting risk to the FDIC and deposit holders to *maybe* finance tax breaks for the wealthy. Great.
It made me remember what “rad” truly feels like again
May 25, 2025 at 2:24 PM
It made me remember what “rad” truly feels like again
Monday morning I rolled over a bunch of GLD options expiring in June for end of year and I’m feeling very good about it right now
May 23, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Monday morning I rolled over a bunch of GLD options expiring in June for end of year and I’m feeling very good about it right now
I did not know that and now I can’t stop laughing.
Nobody told me we’d get the cyberpunk future I read about as a teenager, but with characters from a Confederacy of Dunces.
Nobody told me we’d get the cyberpunk future I read about as a teenager, but with characters from a Confederacy of Dunces.
May 20, 2025 at 7:09 PM
I did not know that and now I can’t stop laughing.
Nobody told me we’d get the cyberpunk future I read about as a teenager, but with characters from a Confederacy of Dunces.
Nobody told me we’d get the cyberpunk future I read about as a teenager, but with characters from a Confederacy of Dunces.
I’m convinced Lucky will eventually recreate the corporate board room scene from Robocop
May 20, 2025 at 7:06 PM
I’m convinced Lucky will eventually recreate the corporate board room scene from Robocop
Somebody tried to explain to him why treasury yields and blowing up this morning.
May 20, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Somebody tried to explain to him why treasury yields and blowing up this morning.
LOL, we’re so fucked.
May 20, 2025 at 2:34 PM
LOL, we’re so fucked.
I’m convinced this ends with a Beanie Babies-based economy. I’ll be charging three Roary the Lions for an hour of consulting moving forward.
May 19, 2025 at 1:14 PM
I’m convinced this ends with a Beanie Babies-based economy. I’ll be charging three Roary the Lions for an hour of consulting moving forward.
That was when debt to GDP was like 30% and we had a lot of room to wiggle, no? The debt to gdp is about 120% - meaning we’ve maxed out the national credit cards so to speak. If the long term yields rise to 15% again with out current debt load, the US financial system will collapse.
May 19, 2025 at 12:20 PM
That was when debt to GDP was like 30% and we had a lot of room to wiggle, no? The debt to gdp is about 120% - meaning we’ve maxed out the national credit cards so to speak. If the long term yields rise to 15% again with out current debt load, the US financial system will collapse.
He has no ideological center other than an unyielding default to magical thinking (the square footage of his properties, the size of his rallies, the efficacy of tariffs) and an allergy to material consequences.
Now is not the time of monsters. Now is the time of Freud.
Now is not the time of monsters. Now is the time of Freud.
May 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
He has no ideological center other than an unyielding default to magical thinking (the square footage of his properties, the size of his rallies, the efficacy of tariffs) and an allergy to material consequences.
Now is not the time of monsters. Now is the time of Freud.
Now is not the time of monsters. Now is the time of Freud.
Dude, we have a neo-mercantilist president who has imposed the highest tariffs since right before the Great Depression and is considering a suspension of habeas corpus to speed up his ethnic cleansing campaign of the immigrant workforce we rely on.
Where the fuck do you think this is going?
Where the fuck do you think this is going?
May 16, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Dude, we have a neo-mercantilist president who has imposed the highest tariffs since right before the Great Depression and is considering a suspension of habeas corpus to speed up his ethnic cleansing campaign of the immigrant workforce we rely on.
Where the fuck do you think this is going?
Where the fuck do you think this is going?
Futures are up even after this and Trump warning 150 counties to make a deal soon or faces higher tariffs. Bond yields are winding down. I’m not even sure this is just retail investors. We’re in an ostrich economy. No one wants to accept what is happening.
May 16, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Futures are up even after this and Trump warning 150 counties to make a deal soon or faces higher tariffs. Bond yields are winding down. I’m not even sure this is just retail investors. We’re in an ostrich economy. No one wants to accept what is happening.
You know how our economy is based around services and not manufacturing and it’s the heart of what little economic stability and upward mobility this country still offers?
The operators of those services companies don’t think it’s worthwhile to further invest in the growth of their own businesses.
The operators of those services companies don’t think it’s worthwhile to further invest in the growth of their own businesses.
May 16, 2025 at 1:08 PM
You know how our economy is based around services and not manufacturing and it’s the heart of what little economic stability and upward mobility this country still offers?
The operators of those services companies don’t think it’s worthwhile to further invest in the growth of their own businesses.
The operators of those services companies don’t think it’s worthwhile to further invest in the growth of their own businesses.
They are going to blame Biden, but this is the correct answer. If you’ve ever been close to aviation, you know it’s basically one giant unending and hyper-tedious maintenance cycle for every bit of equipment …and these breakdowns are proving we did it that way for very good reasons.
May 15, 2025 at 2:48 PM
They are going to blame Biden, but this is the correct answer. If you’ve ever been close to aviation, you know it’s basically one giant unending and hyper-tedious maintenance cycle for every bit of equipment …and these breakdowns are proving we did it that way for very good reasons.
Bonds and stocks are supposed to balance each other out. When stocks rise, bond yields go up to entice more bond buyers. The problem now is bond yields are already very high, and the yield rising at a certain point is an indication of bigger underlying problems. We’re in warning territory right now.
May 14, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Bonds and stocks are supposed to balance each other out. When stocks rise, bond yields go up to entice more bond buyers. The problem now is bond yields are already very high, and the yield rising at a certain point is an indication of bigger underlying problems. We’re in warning territory right now.
I’m bearish about everything and even I’m a bit surprised. CNBC has been noting it all day but that’s about it. It’s starting up look like more than just risk-on behavior because the market rally is flattening and you’d expect some rise in treasury demand. But it’s shooting up fast.
May 14, 2025 at 6:23 PM
I’m bearish about everything and even I’m a bit surprised. CNBC has been noting it all day but that’s about it. It’s starting up look like more than just risk-on behavior because the market rally is flattening and you’d expect some rise in treasury demand. But it’s shooting up fast.
I’m not taking about raw prompting on some image generator website. I’m taking about taking your own art and skills and using the full tool suite of ComfyUI to do things on your own that would require massive capital. There is going to be a golden age of animation soon.
May 14, 2025 at 3:20 PM
I’m not taking about raw prompting on some image generator website. I’m taking about taking your own art and skills and using the full tool suite of ComfyUI to do things on your own that would require massive capital. There is going to be a golden age of animation soon.
To give you a rare opinion from a person that can draw: Stable Diffusion is the greatest boon to digital artists since Photoshop - and frankly it blows Photoshop away. They just don’t know it yet.
May 14, 2025 at 3:14 PM
To give you a rare opinion from a person that can draw: Stable Diffusion is the greatest boon to digital artists since Photoshop - and frankly it blows Photoshop away. They just don’t know it yet.
I’m starting to work on the hypothesis that we’re witnessing a massive ideological schism between what bond markets want (fiscal responsibility and stability) and what equities want (balls out meme coin profits).
May 13, 2025 at 8:37 PM
I’m starting to work on the hypothesis that we’re witnessing a massive ideological schism between what bond markets want (fiscal responsibility and stability) and what equities want (balls out meme coin profits).
Maybe US bonds were going to explode in January over rising concerns over US deficit/debt management but Trump’s trade war shifted investments into treasuries, providing temp relief. But now that markets are risk-on and the GOP tax bill shows big deficits, demand is gone and the yield is up again.
May 13, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Maybe US bonds were going to explode in January over rising concerns over US deficit/debt management but Trump’s trade war shifted investments into treasuries, providing temp relief. But now that markets are risk-on and the GOP tax bill shows big deficits, demand is gone and the yield is up again.
Kids don’t need car seats! They can sit on their mother’s lap. Also, seat belts are unnecessary government over-regulation.
- The Pro-Natalist Party, 2025
- The Pro-Natalist Party, 2025
May 9, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Kids don’t need car seats! They can sit on their mother’s lap. Also, seat belts are unnecessary government over-regulation.
- The Pro-Natalist Party, 2025
- The Pro-Natalist Party, 2025