@4paulmcardle.bsky.social
Looks likely to be a tight supply-demand balance this afternoon and evening in NSW ... with AEMO currently forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding).
Via WattClarity for Thursday 18th December 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Via WattClarity for Thursday 18th December 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
December 17, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Looks likely to be a tight supply-demand balance this afternoon and evening in NSW ... with AEMO currently forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding).
Via WattClarity for Thursday 18th December 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Via WattClarity for Thursday 18th December 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Adding one more to the social media notes about the AEMO's draft of the #2026ISP:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Amongst the things our readers at @wattclarity.bsky.social have noted they have valued, is the ready reference list of articles and commentary about reports such as these.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Amongst the things our readers at @wattclarity.bsky.social have noted they have valued, is the ready reference list of articles and commentary about reports such as these.
December 9, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Adding one more to the social media notes about the AEMO's draft of the #2026ISP:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Amongst the things our readers at @wattclarity.bsky.social have noted they have valued, is the ready reference list of articles and commentary about reports such as these.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Amongst the things our readers at @wattclarity.bsky.social have noted they have valued, is the ready reference list of articles and commentary about reports such as these.
Given the interest from several quarters, here's the 3rd article in a series via @wattclarity.bsky.social with respect to the Wellington North Solar Farm, currently recovering from grass fire that curtailed its operations over the recent weekend:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
December 8, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Given the interest from several quarters, here's the 3rd article in a series via @wattclarity.bsky.social with respect to the Wellington North Solar Farm, currently recovering from grass fire that curtailed its operations over the recent weekend:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Following requests from some readers here's an updated tabulation of 'frequency events' against large Aggregate Raw Off-Target across Semi-Scheduled units.
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social, adding in 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4-to-date:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social, adding in 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4-to-date:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
November 20, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Following requests from some readers here's an updated tabulation of 'frequency events' against large Aggregate Raw Off-Target across Semi-Scheduled units.
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social, adding in 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4-to-date:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social, adding in 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4-to-date:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
In what appears to be a repeat of (what we suspect) happened last week:
1) There's been a frequency excursion on Tuesday morning 11th November 2025;
2) Coincident with some large changes in 'Market Demand' in Victoria.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
More @wattclarity.bsky.social
1) There's been a frequency excursion on Tuesday morning 11th November 2025;
2) Coincident with some large changes in 'Market Demand' in Victoria.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
More @wattclarity.bsky.social
November 10, 2025 at 11:47 PM
In what appears to be a repeat of (what we suspect) happened last week:
1) There's been a frequency excursion on Tuesday morning 11th November 2025;
2) Coincident with some large changes in 'Market Demand' in Victoria.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
More @wattclarity.bsky.social
1) There's been a frequency excursion on Tuesday morning 11th November 2025;
2) Coincident with some large changes in 'Market Demand' in Victoria.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
More @wattclarity.bsky.social
Hangover from Melbourne Cup, or exuberance about the '3 hours free power'?
Market response to some massive (but phantom) ramp in Victorian demand at lunchtime Thu 6th Nov 2025 appear to have overcooked the system frequency.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
More @wattclarity.bsky.social
Market response to some massive (but phantom) ramp in Victorian demand at lunchtime Thu 6th Nov 2025 appear to have overcooked the system frequency.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
More @wattclarity.bsky.social
November 6, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Hangover from Melbourne Cup, or exuberance about the '3 hours free power'?
Market response to some massive (but phantom) ramp in Victorian demand at lunchtime Thu 6th Nov 2025 appear to have overcooked the system frequency.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
More @wattclarity.bsky.social
Market response to some massive (but phantom) ramp in Victorian demand at lunchtime Thu 6th Nov 2025 appear to have overcooked the system frequency.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
More @wattclarity.bsky.social
~3 weeks after the #NEMdev2025 conference, and enroute to #AllEnergy2025, I found a bit more time to add to this thread of informal feedback on the Draft #NelsonReview report:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
What are we missing?
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
What are we missing?
October 26, 2025 at 10:33 PM
~3 weeks after the #NEMdev2025 conference, and enroute to #AllEnergy2025, I found a bit more time to add to this thread of informal feedback on the Draft #NelsonReview report:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
What are we missing?
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
What are we missing?
Yesterday two units at Yallourn tripped - dropping frequency.
However, this was *not* the worst frequency disruption on the day:
(a) 2 periods of larger instability occurred.
(b) both triggered by poor forecasting/dispatch for VRE
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
However, this was *not* the worst frequency disruption on the day:
(a) 2 periods of larger instability occurred.
(b) both triggered by poor forecasting/dispatch for VRE
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
October 17, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Yesterday two units at Yallourn tripped - dropping frequency.
However, this was *not* the worst frequency disruption on the day:
(a) 2 periods of larger instability occurred.
(b) both triggered by poor forecasting/dispatch for VRE
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
However, this was *not* the worst frequency disruption on the day:
(a) 2 periods of larger instability occurred.
(b) both triggered by poor forecasting/dispatch for VRE
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Yesterday and today via @wattclarity.bsky.social, Dan Lee published Parts 1+2 of deeper dive into #CapacityInvestmentScheme
Part 1 = wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Part 2 = wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Also today, Giles wrote about the same situation:
reneweconomy.com.au/regulator-sa...
Part 1 = wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Part 2 = wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Also today, Giles wrote about the same situation:
reneweconomy.com.au/regulator-sa...
September 26, 2025 at 6:05 AM
Yesterday and today via @wattclarity.bsky.social, Dan Lee published Parts 1+2 of deeper dive into #CapacityInvestmentScheme
Part 1 = wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Part 2 = wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Also today, Giles wrote about the same situation:
reneweconomy.com.au/regulator-sa...
Part 1 = wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Part 2 = wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Also today, Giles wrote about the same situation:
reneweconomy.com.au/regulator-sa...
Yesterday (15th Sept) was day 1 of the CEC #QCES2025 ... with a couple speakers brought more sobering perspectives.
Now some are shared here via @wattclarity.bsky.social :
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Bring on the afternoon session for day 2!
Now some are shared here via @wattclarity.bsky.social :
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Bring on the afternoon session for day 2!
September 16, 2025 at 2:29 AM
Yesterday (15th Sept) was day 1 of the CEC #QCES2025 ... with a couple speakers brought more sobering perspectives.
Now some are shared here via @wattclarity.bsky.social :
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Bring on the afternoon session for day 2!
Now some are shared here via @wattclarity.bsky.social :
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Bring on the afternoon session for day 2!
This @wattclarity.bsky.social article worth highlighting for a few reasons:
(a) speaks to (what seems to be) one growing cause of frequency imbalance/weakness;
(b) some have suggested others read.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Interested in your thoughts?
(a) speaks to (what seems to be) one growing cause of frequency imbalance/weakness;
(b) some have suggested others read.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Interested in your thoughts?
September 11, 2025 at 4:04 AM
This @wattclarity.bsky.social article worth highlighting for a few reasons:
(a) speaks to (what seems to be) one growing cause of frequency imbalance/weakness;
(b) some have suggested others read.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Interested in your thoughts?
(a) speaks to (what seems to be) one growing cause of frequency imbalance/weakness;
(b) some have suggested others read.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Interested in your thoughts?
Others might have titled this article from Linton Corbet as 'Primary Frequency Response (PFR) saves the day!'
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... but @wattclarity.bsky.social readers will recall I'm not a fan of such framing.
The story has more nuances, so stay tuned for part 2 and so on...
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... but @wattclarity.bsky.social readers will recall I'm not a fan of such framing.
The story has more nuances, so stay tuned for part 2 and so on...
September 3, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Others might have titled this article from Linton Corbet as 'Primary Frequency Response (PFR) saves the day!'
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... but @wattclarity.bsky.social readers will recall I'm not a fan of such framing.
The story has more nuances, so stay tuned for part 2 and so on...
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... but @wattclarity.bsky.social readers will recall I'm not a fan of such framing.
The story has more nuances, so stay tuned for part 2 and so on...
This week (on Tue 19th Aug 2025) there was a pretty significant frequency spike in the NEM.
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social already we've written 3 articles about this, progressively exploring what happened:
(a) Causes (and implications)
(b) What 'saved the day'
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social already we've written 3 articles about this, progressively exploring what happened:
(a) Causes (and implications)
(b) What 'saved the day'
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
August 21, 2025 at 10:25 PM
This week (on Tue 19th Aug 2025) there was a pretty significant frequency spike in the NEM.
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social already we've written 3 articles about this, progressively exploring what happened:
(a) Causes (and implications)
(b) What 'saved the day'
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Via @wattclarity.bsky.social already we've written 3 articles about this, progressively exploring what happened:
(a) Causes (and implications)
(b) What 'saved the day'
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Large spike in system frequency across the NEM on Tuesday 19th August 2025:
(a) as high as 50.2Hz
(b) lasting about a half hour
(c) in the middle of the day.
A first article by Linton is already @wattclarity.bsky.social :
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... more to come.
(a) as high as 50.2Hz
(b) lasting about a half hour
(c) in the middle of the day.
A first article by Linton is already @wattclarity.bsky.social :
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... more to come.
August 19, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Large spike in system frequency across the NEM on Tuesday 19th August 2025:
(a) as high as 50.2Hz
(b) lasting about a half hour
(c) in the middle of the day.
A first article by Linton is already @wattclarity.bsky.social :
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... more to come.
(a) as high as 50.2Hz
(b) lasting about a half hour
(c) in the middle of the day.
A first article by Linton is already @wattclarity.bsky.social :
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... more to come.
Second rumble today (with the 1st being earthquake felt in South-East QLD).
This one being Basslink unplanned outage and loss of 292MW of 'Market Demand' in Tasmania on Saturday afternoon 16th August 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social
This one being Basslink unplanned outage and loss of 292MW of 'Market Demand' in Tasmania on Saturday afternoon 16th August 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social
August 16, 2025 at 4:54 AM
Second rumble today (with the 1st being earthquake felt in South-East QLD).
This one being Basslink unplanned outage and loss of 292MW of 'Market Demand' in Tasmania on Saturday afternoon 16th August 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social
This one being Basslink unplanned outage and loss of 292MW of 'Market Demand' in Tasmania on Saturday afternoon 16th August 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social
8 days after Tim Nelson spoke at #ACES2025 (and 1 day after my wrap on @WattClarity) the draft report of the #NelsonReview panel is out:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Starters gun has sounded, 6 weeks until submissions close...
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Starters gun has sounded, 6 weeks until submissions close...
August 5, 2025 at 9:59 PM
8 days after Tim Nelson spoke at #ACES2025 (and 1 day after my wrap on @WattClarity) the draft report of the #NelsonReview panel is out:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Starters gun has sounded, 6 weeks until submissions close...
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Starters gun has sounded, 6 weeks until submissions close...
It's my 2nd day back in the office after a long break.
Here's a list on @wattclarity.bsky.social about events, actions, comings and goings in the NEM over the past month or so:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... includes #ACES2025
As the title asks, what (else) did I miss?
Here's a list on @wattclarity.bsky.social about events, actions, comings and goings in the NEM over the past month or so:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... includes #ACES2025
As the title asks, what (else) did I miss?
August 5, 2025 at 3:54 AM
It's my 2nd day back in the office after a long break.
Here's a list on @wattclarity.bsky.social about events, actions, comings and goings in the NEM over the past month or so:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... includes #ACES2025
As the title asks, what (else) did I miss?
Here's a list on @wattclarity.bsky.social about events, actions, comings and goings in the NEM over the past month or so:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... includes #ACES2025
As the title asks, what (else) did I miss?
Am looking forward to catching up with friends, colleagues and clients at #ACES2025 in Sydney this week … might see you there?
Last Friday on @wattclarity.bsky.social Dan Lee penned these ‘Four questions ...’:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Last Friday on @wattclarity.bsky.social Dan Lee penned these ‘Four questions ...’:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
July 27, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Am looking forward to catching up with friends, colleagues and clients at #ACES2025 in Sydney this week … might see you there?
Last Friday on @wattclarity.bsky.social Dan Lee penned these ‘Four questions ...’:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Last Friday on @wattclarity.bsky.social Dan Lee penned these ‘Four questions ...’:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Two articles (somewhat related?) this morning on @wattclarity.bsky.social :
1) Record NEMwide wind production overnight:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
2) But then forecast load shedding in South Australia next Monday 30th June 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
1) Record NEMwide wind production overnight:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
2) But then forecast load shedding in South Australia next Monday 30th June 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
June 23, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Two articles (somewhat related?) this morning on @wattclarity.bsky.social :
1) Record NEMwide wind production overnight:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
2) But then forecast load shedding in South Australia next Monday 30th June 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
1) Record NEMwide wind production overnight:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
2) But then forecast load shedding in South Australia next Monday 30th June 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
I won't be at #AustralianEnergyWeek this week in Melbourne, but expect there will be discussion of the news overnight in relation to the blackout on the Iberian Peninsula from back in April 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social
June 17, 2025 at 10:32 PM
I won't be at #AustralianEnergyWeek this week in Melbourne, but expect there will be discussion of the news overnight in relation to the blackout on the Iberian Peninsula from back in April 2025:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social
Following yesterday evening's volatility (Wed 11th June 2025) across all regions in the NEM (quite rare that happens) we take a quick initial look at bidding behaviour across all units:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social for your perusal.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social for your perusal.
June 12, 2025 at 4:39 AM
Following yesterday evening's volatility (Wed 11th June 2025) across all regions in the NEM (quite rare that happens) we take a quick initial look at bidding behaviour across all units:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social for your perusal.
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social for your perusal.
Yes indeed, there was a new record for NEM-wide wind production overnight (Mon 26th May 2025) ... up ~10% on the prior all-time record set almost exactly a year earlier:
Details via @wattclarity.bsky.social here:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Details via @wattclarity.bsky.social here:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
May 26, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Yes indeed, there was a new record for NEM-wide wind production overnight (Mon 26th May 2025) ... up ~10% on the prior all-time record set almost exactly a year earlier:
Details via @wattclarity.bsky.social here:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
Details via @wattclarity.bsky.social here:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
There's been a large (i.e. 582MW) drop in demand in the Victorian region about half-hour ago this morning (Thu 10th April 2025). It appears real (there was a coincident rapid spike in frequency).
Initial note here:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social with more to come.
Initial note here:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social with more to come.
April 9, 2025 at 10:53 PM
There's been a large (i.e. 582MW) drop in demand in the Victorian region about half-hour ago this morning (Thu 10th April 2025). It appears real (there was a coincident rapid spike in frequency).
Initial note here:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social with more to come.
Initial note here:
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
via @wattclarity.bsky.social with more to come.
via @wattclarity.bsky.social Josh Boegheim differentiates between:
(a) Modelling storage (simplistically) with perfect foresight; and
(b) Considering imperfect foresight (more like real world)
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... originally presented at CAEEPR in Nov 2024
(a) Modelling storage (simplistically) with perfect foresight; and
(b) Considering imperfect foresight (more like real world)
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... originally presented at CAEEPR in Nov 2024
April 7, 2025 at 1:49 AM
via @wattclarity.bsky.social Josh Boegheim differentiates between:
(a) Modelling storage (simplistically) with perfect foresight; and
(b) Considering imperfect foresight (more like real world)
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... originally presented at CAEEPR in Nov 2024
(a) Modelling storage (simplistically) with perfect foresight; and
(b) Considering imperfect foresight (more like real world)
wattclarity.com.au/articles/202...
... originally presented at CAEEPR in Nov 2024
Some @wattclarity.bsky.social articles re the (problems associated with the) delay in receipt of Dispatch Targets ... and one option being considered that some see as a 'solution' (but with respect to which we have concerns):
wattclarity.com.au/market-refor...
wattclarity.com.au/market-refor...
April 1, 2025 at 5:22 AM
Some @wattclarity.bsky.social articles re the (problems associated with the) delay in receipt of Dispatch Targets ... and one option being considered that some see as a 'solution' (but with respect to which we have concerns):
wattclarity.com.au/market-refor...
wattclarity.com.au/market-refor...