Left<—>right politics doesn’t function in NI. It’s a sectarian
system.

The Tories stand candidates but only realise ~0.1% of vote.

Labour never stood candidates for fear of getting “infected” instead have a loose relationship with the SDLP.

Alliance have similar deal with the Lib Dems.

Nationalists and Republicans (some) in the North would happily negotiate flag and anthem - as they see the gains massively outweighing the losses.

That might prove deal breaker South.

Hard to argue though if Protestants in North say the Orange in flag doesn’t represent them.

Agreed.
Framing the question will be fiercely contested.

It’s a fascinating topic. Everyone involved should be thinking and talking about it now.

The question should be a binary one.
What is not clear is whether or not the UK government at that time will remain neutral in the campaign. The Unionists would expect a UK government to support them.

Similar in the South - who will campaign against? Will anyone or any party step into that role?

Perhaps. There is pressure now coming from Nationalists in NI for the SoS to clarify this and set out how this will be objectively assessed.
It is “constructive ambiguity” and will be spun out as long as necessary.

The thing that has changed recently is that everyone seems to be talking about it.

The terms of reunification will have to be explicit - especially so in ROI as this will be a constitutional change that must be ratified before a referendum.

Everyone has learned from Brexit.

FF and FG currently aren’t advocating for a UI or even a border poll. The line is they want “more reconciliation” before they will consider it.
The “left” just came together to elect a new president who has been vocal on reunification - that was certainly a SF precondition.
Things are moving…

Unlikely - it says “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority…” this is a real fudge, piece of string stuff.
It will be called once the ROI agree for it to be called.

T not how it works.
The NI SoS will call it - Stormont have no control over that apart from pressure to call it from Nationalists or pressure NOT to call it from Unionists.

Stormont is a manifestation of the problem

It will be triggered when UK feel it has a chance of success (North and South).

In practice Stormont will have little say in anything. Unless it’s reformed in the short term it won’t exist in the medium term.

Electorate have lost all faith in it.
It’s a dysfunctional, sectarian based institution.

“Your ballot is often found in your wallet”.

There will be some room for sentiment - but no one will bank on it.

There’s an awful long way to go before a border poll.

Ireland is a republic - changes to their constitution have to be put to the people in a referendum. If they don’t like the deal then the people will send it back to ROI government to renegotiate - that will have to be agreed before a border poll.

People in NI can’t send it back to renegotiate.

Border Poll will be triggered by Sec of Stare for NI in tandem with Irish Gov.
The details in terms of finance, debt, pensions, health etc etc will have to be made clear (no one wants to repeat Brexit).
1/2

Current Fine Fail/Fine Gael coalition are more than happy with status quo and neither have advocated for a united Ireland in decades.
Ireland is now the wealthiest country in EU and many would like to keep it that way.
Not that straightforward.

…and the people of the Republic of Ireland. Both have agree to unite.

This is good.