Kevin Milligan
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kevinmilligan.bsky.social
Kevin Milligan
@kevinmilligan.bsky.social

Professor of Economics, Vancouver School of Economics

Economics 25%
Business 19%

Ok, here is a real data source:
www.canada.ca/en/immigrati...

Looks like 2025 is running ~50% below 2024. (Caveat--some of Aug's usual permits may have been delayed until Sept 2025)

But this means the new 2026 155K target may not be much different than where we were headed anyway.

Worse news: they are *again* telling the world not to come so applications may tumble further and we won't even make the target.

We provide excellent education to both domestic and int'l students here. We're getting punched in the balls to solve problems at Conestoga college or some damned place.

But, the headlines are trumpeting "big new cuts to foreign students".

In 2024, the prov of BC allocated UBC enough quota to keep int'l student enrollment constant. And yet applications plunged.

Why? Big negative "don't come to Canada" headlines. We had quota.

We're doing that again? Not good.

Ok, so this article (h/t ) @amyjoanneryder.bsky.social gives some solace:

It says 2024 permits were 267,890, and that in 2025 so far things look to be substantially down from 2024.

If that's all true, then we will already be close to 2026's 155K target.

monitor.icef.com/2025/09/cana...
Canada: Study permit numbers are in steep decline in 2025
In 2024, the first year under Canada's current cap on new international student enrolments, the total number of new study permits issued was 267,890 – a roughly -48% reduction from 2023 levels and
monitor.icef.com

That article is great. Thanks. But the 143K is study permit *applications* not *approvals*. Lower down it says approval rates are only 30%....

Thanks. I saw that. But Alex's numbers look like they might be TFW+international students? My bottom line depends on the latter not the former so that's what I want to understand.

(No broad budget commentary from me right now. I'm responsible for the VSE budget so my concerns are more about my own potential deficit than the federal deficit right now...and that depends largely on this international student thing.)

Like, if 2025 target was 305,900 and actual was already short of that, moving the 2026 target downward to 155K won't be as painful.

But if 2025 actual is like 300K then a 155K 2026 target is super painful.

Anyone know what's up here?

www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...

"It has slashed its previous target of admitting 305,900 foreign students each year from 2025 to 2027, and now it plans to reduce numbers to 155,000 in 2026, and to drop them further to 150,000 in each of 2027 and 2028."

What is the *actual* for 2025?
Ottawa’s immigration plan halves international student intake
Ottawa says the cut aims to ease housing and health care system pressures
www.theglobeandmail.com

Just finished academic/admin day and looking at budget headlines.

Can anyone help me parse the international student stuff? The headlines (cuts of 60% plus) look like it would be further carnage for the higher ed sector.

But, maybe the *target* is being cut but the *actuals* are already there?

Reposted by Kevin Milligan

For anyone who thinks this government actually cares about universities & colleges, consider the following statement from the budget.

"New international student arrivals have also declined by approximately 60 per cent compared to 2024. This is a start, but
we recognise there is more work to do."

Reposted by Kevin Milligan

Canada's 2025 Federal Budget is now out. All documents are available here: budget.canada.ca/2025/home-a... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
Budget 2025
Homepage — Part of Budget 2025.
budget.canada.ca

Confirmed!

Budget day chez moi: I have academic and administrative matters keeping me busy all day Tuesday and Wednesday. So, I'm not available for budget interviews or hot takes.

I might post here a bit on Tuesday night and I will take a deeper look by Thursday.

But I will look for #budgetsnax posts!

Vlad first over the boards. Gotta love it. Give him the "C" on his uni already...

He'll be in to pinch-hit for a lefty (e.g. Lukes) when a LHP takes the mound....

That lineup is as good as it is gonna get.

If it were up to me Bam Bam is 5th and Varsh is 7th, but that's just a little quibble.

Bo on wobbly knees at 2b is a bit nerve-wracking and I wonder how George will handle a hard swing, but otherwise LFG!

Reposted by Robert Wolfe

All three throws on the 1992 WS double (triple) play were super crisp on target and hard. Devo-Alomar, Alomar-Olerud, Olerud-Gruber.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYA6...
92 WS, GM 3, ATL@TOR: Devon White makes a great catch
YouTube video by MLB
www.youtube.com

Love this choice.

Kids, before there was Varsho. before there was KK, there was Devo.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekQ7...

(BTW, Gruber *did* tag the runner on the heel so that *was* a triple play....)

7 Gold Gloves in centre field, including all five years he was with the Jays.

Scary @ubcvse.bsky.social Halloween pumpkins.

Which is scariest?
The large increase in steel tariffs under GW Bush did not cause an increase in steel-industry employment.

But it did hurt the US industries that use steel to make things, reducing employment there long after the tariffs were gone.

New in @aeajournals.bsky.social —> doi.org/10.1257/pol....

Vancouver School of Economics @ubcvse.bsky.social MA program info session: This Weds Oct 29th, 9-10am PDT.

Learn about:
* our new inequality stream
* our new computation stream
* lots more!

Website: economics.ubc.ca/graduate/mas...

Registration: www.grad.ubc.ca/form/webform...
Event Registration | Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies
www.grad.ubc.ca

colloque-retraitevieillissement-caissedesdepots.fr/2025/fr/

Il y a un site web pour le colloque. Le lien en haut....
Site d'inscription
colloque-retraitevieillissement-caissedesdepots.fr

In Paris to give the keynote lecture to La Colloque Retraite et Vielleissement, sponsored by La Caisse de Dépôt, la Chaire ESoPS, et la fondation Panthéon Sorbonne/Université Paris I.

I'm presenting in French, which is a first for me. (This may be crazy?) But I'm looking forward to it!

Tarps off, get on the police horse, and LFG!!!!!

Reposted by Kevin Milligan

Meet the Vancouver School of Economics’ 2025/26 PhD job market candidates! View their profiles here: economics.ubc.ca/people/phd-j... @plbeauregard.bsky.social

Defence!

Reposted by Kevin Milligan

Adding to my list: The Time of Your Life: On the Economics of Longevity and Mortality, with @kevinmilligan.bsky.social (which happens to showcase some of the work we've loved doing for the past few years!)

share.transistor.fm/s/dcdabb47
The Time of Your Life: On the Economics of Longevity and Mortality with Kevin Milligan | Canada's Economy, Explained | Episode 12
Canada’s population is retiring earlier and living longer. Even so, the age 65 retirement threshold, inherited from 19th-century Prussia, continues to anchor public policy and social expectations. In ...
share.transistor.fm