Ziad Daoud
@ziaddaoud.bsky.social
Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. Views are mine.
"Arab and Muslim states have cautioned Trump against an attack [on Iran], fearing it could trigger a broader conflict in the Middle East and cause Tehran to target oil and gas facilities in the Gulf"
www.ft.com/content/a56f...
www.ft.com/content/a56f...
Arab and Muslim powers mount last-ditch effort to avert US-Iran conflict
Diplomats fear that Tehran will see Washington’s demands as tantamount to surrender and resist them
www.ft.com
January 30, 2026 at 11:37 AM
"Arab and Muslim states have cautioned Trump against an attack [on Iran], fearing it could trigger a broader conflict in the Middle East and cause Tehran to target oil and gas facilities in the Gulf"
www.ft.com/content/a56f...
www.ft.com/content/a56f...
"The IDF has accepted the estimate of the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry that approximately 71,000 Palestinians were killed during the Israel-Gaza war, noting that the number does not include missing residents who are potentially buried under rubble"
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
IDF accepts Gaza Health Ministry death toll of over 71,000 Palestinians killed in the war
Although Many International Experts Have Accepted the Health Ministry's Data as Reliable, and Even Conservative Relative to the True Death Toll, Israel Had Refused to Accept the Health Ministry's Coun...
www.haaretz.com
January 30, 2026 at 11:37 AM
"The IDF has accepted the estimate of the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry that approximately 71,000 Palestinians were killed during the Israel-Gaza war, noting that the number does not include missing residents who are potentially buried under rubble"
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
UAE: "Abu Dhabi is folding its $263 billion wealth fund ADQ into [L’imad] a sovereign entity overseen by Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, [in] a significant overhaul"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Abu Dhabi to Consolidate Wealth Fund ADQ, L’imad Assets
Abu Dhabi is folding its $263 billion wealth fund ADQ into a sovereign entity overseen by Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a significant overhaul that potentially thrusts t...
www.bloomberg.com
January 30, 2026 at 10:19 AM
UAE: "Abu Dhabi is folding its $263 billion wealth fund ADQ into [L’imad] a sovereign entity overseen by Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, [in] a significant overhaul"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Dollar slump is good for the Middle East
One reason: it speeds up diversification from oil
Take Saudi:
• Weaker dollar → weaker Saudi riyal
• That makes non-oil products cheaper abroad
• More competitive pricing means higher non-oil exports
Full analysis is on the Bloomberg terminal
One reason: it speeds up diversification from oil
Take Saudi:
• Weaker dollar → weaker Saudi riyal
• That makes non-oil products cheaper abroad
• More competitive pricing means higher non-oil exports
Full analysis is on the Bloomberg terminal
January 30, 2026 at 8:22 AM
Dollar slump is good for the Middle East
One reason: it speeds up diversification from oil
Take Saudi:
• Weaker dollar → weaker Saudi riyal
• That makes non-oil products cheaper abroad
• More competitive pricing means higher non-oil exports
Full analysis is on the Bloomberg terminal
One reason: it speeds up diversification from oil
Take Saudi:
• Weaker dollar → weaker Saudi riyal
• That makes non-oil products cheaper abroad
• More competitive pricing means higher non-oil exports
Full analysis is on the Bloomberg terminal
Saudi spending pullback
• Postponing the Asian Winter Games
• Considering overhauls to The Line
• Reviewing The Mukaab
• Re-evaluating other projects
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Postponing the Asian Winter Games
• Considering overhauls to The Line
• Reviewing The Mukaab
• Re-evaluating other projects
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 29, 2026 at 9:24 AM
Saudi spending pullback
• Postponing the Asian Winter Games
• Considering overhauls to The Line
• Reviewing The Mukaab
• Re-evaluating other projects
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Postponing the Asian Winter Games
• Considering overhauls to The Line
• Reviewing The Mukaab
• Re-evaluating other projects
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
This article has a good visualisation of the US military buildup in the Middle East
It's the largest accumulation of assets since June, when Trump bombed Iranian nuclear facilities
www.ft.com/content/c121...
It's the largest accumulation of assets since June, when Trump bombed Iranian nuclear facilities
www.ft.com/content/c121...
Donald Trump’s ‘beautiful armada’ underlines US threat to Iran
Build-up of American military power comes as US president weighs strikes
www.ft.com
January 29, 2026 at 9:17 AM
This article has a good visualisation of the US military buildup in the Middle East
It's the largest accumulation of assets since June, when Trump bombed Iranian nuclear facilities
www.ft.com/content/c121...
It's the largest accumulation of assets since June, when Trump bombed Iranian nuclear facilities
www.ft.com/content/c121...
Markets are on edge over possible US strikes on Iran
Oil is near $70, up from about $60 before the escalation (white)
Gold has surged to a record above $5,500 (blue)
Oil is near $70, up from about $60 before the escalation (white)
Gold has surged to a record above $5,500 (blue)
January 29, 2026 at 8:57 AM
Markets are on edge over possible US strikes on Iran
Oil is near $70, up from about $60 before the escalation (white)
Gold has surged to a record above $5,500 (blue)
Oil is near $70, up from about $60 before the escalation (white)
Gold has surged to a record above $5,500 (blue)
The state of the Middle East today:
• Waiting for possible US strikes on Iran
• Saudi-UAE rift
• Iraq prime minister selection drama
• Syria's internal fighting
• Gaza devastation
• Coping with lower oil prices
• Waiting for possible US strikes on Iran
• Saudi-UAE rift
• Iraq prime minister selection drama
• Syria's internal fighting
• Gaza devastation
• Coping with lower oil prices
January 28, 2026 at 9:36 AM
The state of the Middle East today:
• Waiting for possible US strikes on Iran
• Saudi-UAE rift
• Iraq prime minister selection drama
• Syria's internal fighting
• Gaza devastation
• Coping with lower oil prices
• Waiting for possible US strikes on Iran
• Saudi-UAE rift
• Iraq prime minister selection drama
• Syria's internal fighting
• Gaza devastation
• Coping with lower oil prices
"Trump on Tuesday suggested he could manipulate the strength of the dollar, saying “I could have it go up or go down like a yo yo”"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Says He’s Not Concerned With Decline of US Dollar
President Donald Trump indicated he’s comfortable with the dollar’s recent decline, helping send the currency to its lowest level since early 2022.
www.bloomberg.com
January 28, 2026 at 9:27 AM
"Trump on Tuesday suggested he could manipulate the strength of the dollar, saying “I could have it go up or go down like a yo yo”"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Saudi "is widening its search for capital, turning to some of the kingdom’s wealthiest families as the government looks to ease pressure on public finances
..
[It] gathered about a dozen prominent families on the Red Sea .. to assess their appetite"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
..
[It] gathered about a dozen prominent families on the Red Sea .. to assess their appetite"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Saudi Arabia Looks to Tap Wealthy Families in New Quest for Cash
Saudi Arabia is widening its search for capital, turning to some of the kingdom’s wealthiest families as the government looks to ease pressure on public finances and fund the next phase of Crown Princ...
www.bloomberg.com
January 28, 2026 at 9:21 AM
Saudi "is widening its search for capital, turning to some of the kingdom’s wealthiest families as the government looks to ease pressure on public finances
..
[It] gathered about a dozen prominent families on the Red Sea .. to assess their appetite"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
..
[It] gathered about a dozen prominent families on the Red Sea .. to assess their appetite"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump on Iraq: "Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos. That should not be allowed to happen again .. if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq and, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success"
January 28, 2026 at 8:43 AM
Trump on Iraq: "Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos. That should not be allowed to happen again .. if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq and, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success"
"The list of speakers again includes figures from .. the RN — whose founder Jean-Marie Le Pen was found guilty of Holocaust denial — and .. Sweden Democrats, which acknowledged last year a history of support for Nazi ideas within its ranks"
www.ft.com/content/3eb8...
www.ft.com/content/3eb8...
Netanyahu’s government hosts antisemitism conference with European far-right
Israel invites members of groups including France’s Rassemblement National and the Sweden Democrats
www.ft.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:47 AM
"The list of speakers again includes figures from .. the RN — whose founder Jean-Marie Le Pen was found guilty of Holocaust denial — and .. Sweden Democrats, which acknowledged last year a history of support for Nazi ideas within its ranks"
www.ft.com/content/3eb8...
www.ft.com/content/3eb8...
US military buildup against Iran:
• The Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier reached the Mideast on Monday
• More assets are en route — won't all be there for another week
• Trump nearly approved strikes on Iran earlier in the month
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
• The Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier reached the Mideast on Monday
• More assets are en route — won't all be there for another week
• Trump nearly approved strikes on Iran earlier in the month
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Aircraft carrier reaches Middle East, bolstering Iran options for Trump
The U.S. military buildup near Iran continues, with the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, as the White House contemplates another strike.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:40 AM
US military buildup against Iran:
• The Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier reached the Mideast on Monday
• More assets are en route — won't all be there for another week
• Trump nearly approved strikes on Iran earlier in the month
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
• The Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier reached the Mideast on Monday
• More assets are en route — won't all be there for another week
• Trump nearly approved strikes on Iran earlier in the month
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
"Some UAE-based firms have reported problems securing Saudi business visas, the people said. It’s not clear how widespread the issue is or whether it marks a change of policy by the Saudi government"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Saudi Arabia-UAE Tensions Put Middle East Businesses on Edge
Middle East businesses are watching tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with increasing nervousness, concerned it could impact commerce at a time when both nations are emerging ...
www.bloomberg.com
January 27, 2026 at 8:58 AM
"Some UAE-based firms have reported problems securing Saudi business visas, the people said. It’s not clear how widespread the issue is or whether it marks a change of policy by the Saudi government"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The world is getting even more dizzying → "China ’s top general is suspected of passing secret information about the country’s nuclear weapons program to the US"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Top China General Accused of Leaking Nuclear Secrets to US, WSJ Says
China’s top general is suspected of passing secret information about the country’s nuclear weapons program to the US, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, which cited unidentified people ...
www.bloomberg.com
January 26, 2026 at 9:21 AM
The world is getting even more dizzying → "China ’s top general is suspected of passing secret information about the country’s nuclear weapons program to the US"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"Iraq ’s dominant political bloc announced Saturday that it had nominated former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister"
Will the US:
a) accept Maliki?
b) veto Maliki?
c) work with Maliki?
apnews.com/article/iraq...
Will the US:
a) accept Maliki?
b) veto Maliki?
c) work with Maliki?
apnews.com/article/iraq...
Iraq’s dominant political bloc nominates former prime minister al-Maliki as its candidate
Iraq’s dominant political bloc has nominated former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister.
apnews.com
January 26, 2026 at 9:17 AM
"Iraq ’s dominant political bloc announced Saturday that it had nominated former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister"
Will the US:
a) accept Maliki?
b) veto Maliki?
c) work with Maliki?
apnews.com/article/iraq...
Will the US:
a) accept Maliki?
b) veto Maliki?
c) work with Maliki?
apnews.com/article/iraq...
A good decision that's both predictable and sensible → "Saudi Arabia and the Olympic Council of Asia agreed to postpone the 2029 Asian Winter Games"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Saudi Arabia, Olympic Council Delay 2029 Asian Winter Games
Saudi Arabia and the Olympic Council of Asia agreed to postpone the 2029 Asian Winter Games, dealing a blow to the Middle Eastern kingdom’s ambitions to become a major sports hub and center for global...
www.bloomberg.com
January 26, 2026 at 9:00 AM
A good decision that's both predictable and sensible → "Saudi Arabia and the Olympic Council of Asia agreed to postpone the 2029 Asian Winter Games"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
5 things that happened this week:
Iran military build-up
• Trump: “We have a big flotilla going in [Iran’s] direction”
• Similar deployments preceded US attacks on Venezuela
• The probability of a US strike on Iran by April is 62% on Polymarket
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Iran military build-up
• Trump: “We have a big flotilla going in [Iran’s] direction”
• Similar deployments preceded US attacks on Venezuela
• The probability of a US strike on Iran by April is 62% on Polymarket
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 24, 2026 at 8:56 AM
5 things that happened this week:
Iran military build-up
• Trump: “We have a big flotilla going in [Iran’s] direction”
• Similar deployments preceded US attacks on Venezuela
• The probability of a US strike on Iran by April is 62% on Polymarket
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Iran military build-up
• Trump: “We have a big flotilla going in [Iran’s] direction”
• Similar deployments preceded US attacks on Venezuela
• The probability of a US strike on Iran by April is 62% on Polymarket
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"Compounding the challenge [for Iraq] is oil’s drop to around $65 a barrel. That's only about $10 above a “tipping point” that would see the government struggle to pay salaries and “face economic and social turmoil,” according to Ziad Daoud"
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
A Transformed Iraq Confronts a Stark Choice Between Iran and Trump
As the country recovers from the disastrous US invasion, it’s being pulled between its neighbor Iran, which has built decades of influence, and a president who wants America to have more sway in OPEC’...
www.bloomberg.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:35 PM
"Compounding the challenge [for Iraq] is oil’s drop to around $65 a barrel. That's only about $10 above a “tipping point” that would see the government struggle to pay salaries and “face economic and social turmoil,” according to Ziad Daoud"
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
One more TACO → "Trump said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations opposing his effort to take possession of Greenland"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Drops Tariff Threat After ‘Framework’ Greenland Deal
President Donald Trump said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations opposing his effort to take possession of Greenland, citing a “framework of a future deal” he said was...
www.bloomberg.com
January 22, 2026 at 8:26 AM
One more TACO → "Trump said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations opposing his effort to take possession of Greenland"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Canada prime minister Mark Carney: "We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false .. we knew that international law applied with varied rigor, depending on the identity of the accused or the victim"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Carney’s Blunt Message to Davos: The Rules-Based Order Is Dead
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney used a major address in Davos to argue that the world’s middle powers must band together to resist coercion from aggressive superpowers.
www.bloomberg.com
January 21, 2026 at 9:52 AM
Canada prime minister Mark Carney: "We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false .. we knew that international law applied with varied rigor, depending on the identity of the accused or the victim"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Saudi borrowed $20 billion in January by selling bonds overseas
• Companies & banks raised $8.8 billion
• The government issued $11.5 billion
• The finance ministry plans $14-$17 billion in foreign bond issuance this year
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Companies & banks raised $8.8 billion
• The government issued $11.5 billion
• The finance ministry plans $14-$17 billion in foreign bond issuance this year
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 21, 2026 at 9:32 AM
Saudi borrowed $20 billion in January by selling bonds overseas
• Companies & banks raised $8.8 billion
• The government issued $11.5 billion
• The finance ministry plans $14-$17 billion in foreign bond issuance this year
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Companies & banks raised $8.8 billion
• The government issued $11.5 billion
• The finance ministry plans $14-$17 billion in foreign bond issuance this year
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The US is tightening the military ring around Iran:
• F-15E fighters landed in Jordan – they helped defend Israel in 2024
• More Patriot and Thaad antimissile systems will move to the Mideast
• Aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is sailing to the Gulf
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
• F-15E fighters landed in Jordan – they helped defend Israel in 2024
• More Patriot and Thaad antimissile systems will move to the Mideast
• Aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is sailing to the Gulf
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Trump Seeks ‘Decisive’ Options for Iran as Assets Move Into Middle East
U.S. jet fighters have arrived in the region and an aircraft carrier is on its way.
www.wsj.com
January 21, 2026 at 9:22 AM
The US is tightening the military ring around Iran:
• F-15E fighters landed in Jordan – they helped defend Israel in 2024
• More Patriot and Thaad antimissile systems will move to the Mideast
• Aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is sailing to the Gulf
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
• F-15E fighters landed in Jordan – they helped defend Israel in 2024
• More Patriot and Thaad antimissile systems will move to the Mideast
• Aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is sailing to the Gulf
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Israel "started bulldozing the Jerusalem headquarters of [UNRWA], pushing forward with its crackdown against an organization that delivers humanitarian services to millions of people across the region"
apnews.com/article/isra...
apnews.com/article/isra...
Israeli crews begin bulldozing headquarters of UN agency for Palestinian refugees in east Jerusalem
Israeli crews have started bulldozing the Jerusalem headquarters of the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees.
apnews.com
January 20, 2026 at 10:52 AM
Israel "started bulldozing the Jerusalem headquarters of [UNRWA], pushing forward with its crackdown against an organization that delivers humanitarian services to millions of people across the region"
apnews.com/article/isra...
apnews.com/article/isra...
3 questions on Trump and Iran:
1. Will the US strike Tehran?
2. Will Iran hit back across the region?
3. How long will the war last?
Right now, oil is at $64 – about $4 higher than when the escalation began
1. Will the US strike Tehran?
2. Will Iran hit back across the region?
3. How long will the war last?
Right now, oil is at $64 – about $4 higher than when the escalation began
January 20, 2026 at 9:54 AM
3 questions on Trump and Iran:
1. Will the US strike Tehran?
2. Will Iran hit back across the region?
3. How long will the war last?
Right now, oil is at $64 – about $4 higher than when the escalation began
1. Will the US strike Tehran?
2. Will Iran hit back across the region?
3. How long will the war last?
Right now, oil is at $64 – about $4 higher than when the escalation began