Ziad Daoud
@ziaddaoud.bsky.social
Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. Views are mine.
Saudi: Construction "across Neom has slowed, with the desert ski resort Trojena .. one of the few sites still moving ahead at pace
..
One former employee said that everyone knows the project won’t work; it is now just a matter of letting MBS down gently"
ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
..
One former employee said that everyone knows the project won’t work; it is now just a matter of letting MBS down gently"
ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
End of The Line: how Saudi Arabia’s Neom dream unravelled
Mohammed bin Salman’s utopian city was undone by the laws of physics and finance
ig.ft.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Saudi: Construction "across Neom has slowed, with the desert ski resort Trojena .. one of the few sites still moving ahead at pace
..
One former employee said that everyone knows the project won’t work; it is now just a matter of letting MBS down gently"
ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
..
One former employee said that everyone knows the project won’t work; it is now just a matter of letting MBS down gently"
ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
Iraq devalued the dinar in 2020 when oil crashed
It revalued the currency in 2023 when prices soared
Could the government reduce the value of the dinar if crude drops?
The prime minister says: there are “no risks”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
It revalued the currency in 2023 when prices soared
Could the government reduce the value of the dinar if crude drops?
The prime minister says: there are “no risks”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 12, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Iraq devalued the dinar in 2020 when oil crashed
It revalued the currency in 2023 when prices soared
Could the government reduce the value of the dinar if crude drops?
The prime minister says: there are “no risks”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
It revalued the currency in 2023 when prices soared
Could the government reduce the value of the dinar if crude drops?
The prime minister says: there are “no risks”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US sanctions on Russia are starting to bite
Lukoil declared force majeure on oil shipments from Iraq, giving it the right to skip deliveries
Iraq has frozen payments to Lukoil following the sanctions & is now running the field itself
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Lukoil declared force majeure on oil shipments from Iraq, giving it the right to skip deliveries
Iraq has frozen payments to Lukoil following the sanctions & is now running the field itself
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Lukoil Declares Force Majeure on Iraqi Oil After Sanctions
Russia’s Lukoil PJSC declared force majeure on oil shipments from its giant West Qurna 2 field in Iraq, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
www.bloomberg.com
November 11, 2025 at 11:52 AM
US sanctions on Russia are starting to bite
Lukoil declared force majeure on oil shipments from Iraq, giving it the right to skip deliveries
Iraq has frozen payments to Lukoil following the sanctions & is now running the field itself
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Lukoil declared force majeure on oil shipments from Iraq, giving it the right to skip deliveries
Iraq has frozen payments to Lukoil following the sanctions & is now running the field itself
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
A Saudi puzzle:
The government wants belt-tightening — its budget shows spending cuts out to 2027 (image)
But the sovereign wealth fund plans to boost annual domestic investments from $40 billion to $70 billion (link)
Are the two goals compatible?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The government wants belt-tightening — its budget shows spending cuts out to 2027 (image)
But the sovereign wealth fund plans to boost annual domestic investments from $40 billion to $70 billion (link)
Are the two goals compatible?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 11, 2025 at 11:52 AM
A Saudi puzzle:
The government wants belt-tightening — its budget shows spending cuts out to 2027 (image)
But the sovereign wealth fund plans to boost annual domestic investments from $40 billion to $70 billion (link)
Are the two goals compatible?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The government wants belt-tightening — its budget shows spending cuts out to 2027 (image)
But the sovereign wealth fund plans to boost annual domestic investments from $40 billion to $70 billion (link)
Are the two goals compatible?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Iraq's dollar spending on salaries & pensions is up by 60% since 2021
The state now pays 9 million people
So why did the current government add ~700,000 people to the public payroll?
The prime minister's answer: To “buy some time”
Iraq votes today
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The state now pays 9 million people
So why did the current government add ~700,000 people to the public payroll?
The prime minister's answer: To “buy some time”
Iraq votes today
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 11, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Iraq's dollar spending on salaries & pensions is up by 60% since 2021
The state now pays 9 million people
So why did the current government add ~700,000 people to the public payroll?
The prime minister's answer: To “buy some time”
Iraq votes today
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The state now pays 9 million people
So why did the current government add ~700,000 people to the public payroll?
The prime minister's answer: To “buy some time”
Iraq votes today
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Lebanon: "Health ministry has reported more than 270 people killed .. by Israeli military actions since the ceasefire took effect
As of Oct. 9, the U.N. human rights office had verified that 107 of those killed were civilians or noncombatants"
apnews.com/article/leba...
As of Oct. 9, the U.N. human rights office had verified that 107 of those killed were civilians or noncombatants"
apnews.com/article/leba...
Israeli jets strike southern Lebanon towns, escalating near-daily attacks
Israeli jets have struck several towns in southern Lebanon after urging residents to leave. This marks an escalation in their near-daily strikes on the country.
apnews.com
November 10, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Lebanon: "Health ministry has reported more than 270 people killed .. by Israeli military actions since the ceasefire took effect
As of Oct. 9, the U.N. human rights office had verified that 107 of those killed were civilians or noncombatants"
apnews.com/article/leba...
As of Oct. 9, the U.N. human rights office had verified that 107 of those killed were civilians or noncombatants"
apnews.com/article/leba...
Egypt inflation rose to 12.5% in October from 11.7%
Rents jumped after a law change; fuel price hikes yet to show up in the data
Inflation peaked at 38% in late 2023, at the height of the currency crisis
The target range = 5%-9% in late 2026
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Rents jumped after a law change; fuel price hikes yet to show up in the data
Inflation peaked at 38% in late 2023, at the height of the currency crisis
The target range = 5%-9% in late 2026
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 10, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Egypt inflation rose to 12.5% in October from 11.7%
Rents jumped after a law change; fuel price hikes yet to show up in the data
Inflation peaked at 38% in late 2023, at the height of the currency crisis
The target range = 5%-9% in late 2026
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Rents jumped after a law change; fuel price hikes yet to show up in the data
Inflation peaked at 38% in late 2023, at the height of the currency crisis
The target range = 5%-9% in late 2026
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Saudi Arabia’s budget promised spending cuts in 2025
Reality check: expenditure in the first 9 months of the year was slightly up, not down
Budget cuts are hard to pull off, and not just in Saudi
Reality check: expenditure in the first 9 months of the year was slightly up, not down
Budget cuts are hard to pull off, and not just in Saudi
November 10, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Saudi Arabia’s budget promised spending cuts in 2025
Reality check: expenditure in the first 9 months of the year was slightly up, not down
Budget cuts are hard to pull off, and not just in Saudi
Reality check: expenditure in the first 9 months of the year was slightly up, not down
Budget cuts are hard to pull off, and not just in Saudi
ما أهمية الانتخابات العراقية بعد يومين؟
التصويت يحدد كيف تقسم الكعكة، لكن حجم الكعكة يحدده النفط
3 حقائق:
• اقتصاد العراق يحيا ويمرض مع النفط
• الاعتماد على النفط زاد في آخر 3 سنوات
• إذا هبط النفط تحت 53 دولار، فلن تكفي الإيرادات لتغطية أجور الموظفين والمتقاعدين
1/5
التصويت يحدد كيف تقسم الكعكة، لكن حجم الكعكة يحدده النفط
3 حقائق:
• اقتصاد العراق يحيا ويمرض مع النفط
• الاعتماد على النفط زاد في آخر 3 سنوات
• إذا هبط النفط تحت 53 دولار، فلن تكفي الإيرادات لتغطية أجور الموظفين والمتقاعدين
1/5
November 9, 2025 at 10:15 AM
ما أهمية الانتخابات العراقية بعد يومين؟
التصويت يحدد كيف تقسم الكعكة، لكن حجم الكعكة يحدده النفط
3 حقائق:
• اقتصاد العراق يحيا ويمرض مع النفط
• الاعتماد على النفط زاد في آخر 3 سنوات
• إذا هبط النفط تحت 53 دولار، فلن تكفي الإيرادات لتغطية أجور الموظفين والمتقاعدين
1/5
التصويت يحدد كيف تقسم الكعكة، لكن حجم الكعكة يحدده النفط
3 حقائق:
• اقتصاد العراق يحيا ويمرض مع النفط
• الاعتماد على النفط زاد في آخر 3 سنوات
• إذا هبط النفط تحت 53 دولار، فلن تكفي الإيرادات لتغطية أجور الموظفين والمتقاعدين
1/5
5 things that happened this week:
Qatar is wiring $3.5 billion to Egypt by year-end & $30 billion over 7 years
In return, it gets land on the North Coast
The cash could unlock a delayed IMF review — a similar UAE deal ended Egypt’s crisis last year
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Qatar is wiring $3.5 billion to Egypt by year-end & $30 billion over 7 years
In return, it gets land on the North Coast
The cash could unlock a delayed IMF review — a similar UAE deal ended Egypt’s crisis last year
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 8, 2025 at 5:30 PM
5 things that happened this week:
Qatar is wiring $3.5 billion to Egypt by year-end & $30 billion over 7 years
In return, it gets land on the North Coast
The cash could unlock a delayed IMF review — a similar UAE deal ended Egypt’s crisis last year
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Qatar is wiring $3.5 billion to Egypt by year-end & $30 billion over 7 years
In return, it gets land on the North Coast
The cash could unlock a delayed IMF review — a similar UAE deal ended Egypt’s crisis last year
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I enjoyed chatting with Nur Arafeh about Middle East economies and the world today
You may enjoy it too — if you click on this link:
carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
You may enjoy it too — if you click on this link:
carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
Oil and Geopolitical Stability
In an interview, Ziad Daoud discusses how global economic dynamics are putting pressure on Gulf petroleum producers.
carnegieendowment.org
November 7, 2025 at 9:00 AM
I enjoyed chatting with Nur Arafeh about Middle East economies and the world today
You may enjoy it too — if you click on this link:
carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
You may enjoy it too — if you click on this link:
carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
4 possible futures await the dollar:
1. Stay supreme
2. Keep the throne but shed some market share
3. Lose its crown to another currency
4. Yield to gold or crypto
Adriana Dupita and I looked at a range of indicators
Our conclusion: 2nd scenario is the most likely
1. Stay supreme
2. Keep the throne but shed some market share
3. Lose its crown to another currency
4. Yield to gold or crypto
Adriana Dupita and I looked at a range of indicators
Our conclusion: 2nd scenario is the most likely
November 7, 2025 at 8:53 AM
4 possible futures await the dollar:
1. Stay supreme
2. Keep the throne but shed some market share
3. Lose its crown to another currency
4. Yield to gold or crypto
Adriana Dupita and I looked at a range of indicators
Our conclusion: 2nd scenario is the most likely
1. Stay supreme
2. Keep the throne but shed some market share
3. Lose its crown to another currency
4. Yield to gold or crypto
Adriana Dupita and I looked at a range of indicators
Our conclusion: 2nd scenario is the most likely
"The US Supreme Court appeared skeptical of Trump’s sweeping global tariffs
..
A decision against Trump could force more than $100 billion in refunds, remove a major burden on the US importers .. and blunt an all-purpose cudgel the president has wielded"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
..
A decision against Trump could force more than $100 billion in refunds, remove a major burden on the US importers .. and blunt an all-purpose cudgel the president has wielded"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Supreme Court Appears Skeptical of Trump’s Global Tariffs
The US Supreme Court appeared skeptical of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, as key justices suggested he had overstepped his authority with his signature economic policy.
www.bloomberg.com
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 AM
"The US Supreme Court appeared skeptical of Trump’s sweeping global tariffs
..
A decision against Trump could force more than $100 billion in refunds, remove a major burden on the US importers .. and blunt an all-purpose cudgel the president has wielded"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
..
A decision against Trump could force more than $100 billion in refunds, remove a major burden on the US importers .. and blunt an all-purpose cudgel the president has wielded"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Qatar plans to send $3.5 billion to Egypt
Target: another tourism project on the north coast
In 2024, the UAE bought land in the same area for $35 billion — a deal that unlocked a $57 billion international bailout for Egypt
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Target: another tourism project on the north coast
In 2024, the UAE bought land in the same area for $35 billion — a deal that unlocked a $57 billion international bailout for Egypt
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Qatar plans to send $3.5 billion to Egypt
Target: another tourism project on the north coast
In 2024, the UAE bought land in the same area for $35 billion — a deal that unlocked a $57 billion international bailout for Egypt
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Target: another tourism project on the north coast
In 2024, the UAE bought land in the same area for $35 billion — a deal that unlocked a $57 billion international bailout for Egypt
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
3 hard truths define Iraq today:
• Its economy lives and dies with oil
• Recent government policies haven’t reduced oil reliance – they’ve made it worse
• If oil drops below $53, revenues won't cover its wage & pension bill
Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal
• Its economy lives and dies with oil
• Recent government policies haven’t reduced oil reliance – they’ve made it worse
• If oil drops below $53, revenues won't cover its wage & pension bill
Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 AM
3 hard truths define Iraq today:
• Its economy lives and dies with oil
• Recent government policies haven’t reduced oil reliance – they’ve made it worse
• If oil drops below $53, revenues won't cover its wage & pension bill
Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal
• Its economy lives and dies with oil
• Recent government policies haven’t reduced oil reliance – they’ve made it worse
• If oil drops below $53, revenues won't cover its wage & pension bill
Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal
China fueled global oil demand this century — could AI be the next driver?
The UAE expects demand staying above 100 million barrels a day beyond 2040
And says the energy industry will need annual investment of $4 trillion to meet rising consumption
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The UAE expects demand staying above 100 million barrels a day beyond 2040
And says the energy industry will need annual investment of $4 trillion to meet rising consumption
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Adnoc CEO Says AI Raises Energy Investment Needs to $4 Trillion
The global energy industry needs annual investment of $4 trillion as the boom in data centers and artificial intelligence increases demand, according to Sultan Al Jaber, head of the biggest crude prod...
www.bloomberg.com
November 5, 2025 at 10:33 AM
China fueled global oil demand this century — could AI be the next driver?
The UAE expects demand staying above 100 million barrels a day beyond 2040
And says the energy industry will need annual investment of $4 trillion to meet rising consumption
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The UAE expects demand staying above 100 million barrels a day beyond 2040
And says the energy industry will need annual investment of $4 trillion to meet rising consumption
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Zohran Mamdani spoke Arabic in his victory speech
"I'm from you, and for you"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ae0u...
"I'm from you, and for you"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ae0u...
زهران ممداني بعد فوزه بمنصب عمدة نيويورك متحدثا بالعربية: أنا منكم وإليكم
YouTube video by العربي - أخبار
www.youtube.com
November 5, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Zohran Mamdani spoke Arabic in his victory speech
"I'm from you, and for you"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ae0u...
"I'm from you, and for you"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ae0u...
How is the Gaza ceasefire going?
Quieter — but not quiet
As this chart from a recent piece by Dina Esfandiary shows, battles and attacks have slowed since the truce, but haven’t disappeared
Quieter — but not quiet
As this chart from a recent piece by Dina Esfandiary shows, battles and attacks have slowed since the truce, but haven’t disappeared
November 5, 2025 at 10:05 AM
How is the Gaza ceasefire going?
Quieter — but not quiet
As this chart from a recent piece by Dina Esfandiary shows, battles and attacks have slowed since the truce, but haven’t disappeared
Quieter — but not quiet
As this chart from a recent piece by Dina Esfandiary shows, battles and attacks have slowed since the truce, but haven’t disappeared
"Officials said earlier this year that the number of Israeli tech workers leaving the country each month had jumped by about 45 per cent in the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war"
www.ft.com/content/4636...
www.ft.com/content/4636...
Israel unveils tax benefits in bid to reverse tech brain drain
Measures aim to lure back high-skilled workers who moved abroad after 2023 war with Hamas
www.ft.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:19 AM
"Officials said earlier this year that the number of Israeli tech workers leaving the country each month had jumped by about 45 per cent in the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war"
www.ft.com/content/4636...
www.ft.com/content/4636...
"Economists calculate that the AI boom accounted for more than half of America’s 1.6% growth rate over the first six months of 2025"
How?
1. Investment: data centres, IT, software
2. Wealth effect: booming AI stocks → people feel richer → consume more
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
How?
1. Investment: data centres, IT, software
2. Wealth effect: booming AI stocks → people feel richer → consume more
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
AI-Led Investments Are Driving US Economic Growth
There’s no official read on how fast the US economy grew last quarter, thanks to the government shutdown. But almost everyone reckons it was a healthy pace — and that’s largely thanks to AI.
www.bloomberg.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:19 AM
"Economists calculate that the AI boom accounted for more than half of America’s 1.6% growth rate over the first six months of 2025"
How?
1. Investment: data centres, IT, software
2. Wealth effect: booming AI stocks → people feel richer → consume more
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
How?
1. Investment: data centres, IT, software
2. Wealth effect: booming AI stocks → people feel richer → consume more
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
My latest: OPEC+ blinked — and Saudi data explain why
Why did OPEC+ decide to pause after months of flooding the market?
The reason isn’t just at sea, with a glut of oil piling up on tankers
It’s also in Riyadh’s books — Saudi has never been more dependent on oil
Why did OPEC+ decide to pause after months of flooding the market?
The reason isn’t just at sea, with a glut of oil piling up on tankers
It’s also in Riyadh’s books — Saudi has never been more dependent on oil
November 4, 2025 at 9:08 AM
My latest: OPEC+ blinked — and Saudi data explain why
Why did OPEC+ decide to pause after months of flooding the market?
The reason isn’t just at sea, with a glut of oil piling up on tankers
It’s also in Riyadh’s books — Saudi has never been more dependent on oil
Why did OPEC+ decide to pause after months of flooding the market?
The reason isn’t just at sea, with a glut of oil piling up on tankers
It’s also in Riyadh’s books — Saudi has never been more dependent on oil
OPEC+ oil strategy, a timeline:
• 2020: Saudi-Russia price war
• 2020-21: Covid output cuts
• 2021-22: Unwind
• 2022-25: Output curbs to lift prices
• 2025: Unwind again
• 2026: Planned pause
Price war → Cuts → Unwind → Cuts → Unwind → Pause
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• 2020: Saudi-Russia price war
• 2020-21: Covid output cuts
• 2021-22: Unwind
• 2022-25: Output curbs to lift prices
• 2025: Unwind again
• 2026: Planned pause
Price war → Cuts → Unwind → Cuts → Unwind → Pause
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
OPEC+ to Pause Output Hikes After Small December Increase
OPEC+ will pause output increases during the first quarter — after making another modest hike next month — as the group balances its push for market share against signs of an emerging surplus.
www.bloomberg.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:05 AM
OPEC+ oil strategy, a timeline:
• 2020: Saudi-Russia price war
• 2020-21: Covid output cuts
• 2021-22: Unwind
• 2022-25: Output curbs to lift prices
• 2025: Unwind again
• 2026: Planned pause
Price war → Cuts → Unwind → Cuts → Unwind → Pause
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• 2020: Saudi-Russia price war
• 2020-21: Covid output cuts
• 2021-22: Unwind
• 2022-25: Output curbs to lift prices
• 2025: Unwind again
• 2026: Planned pause
Price war → Cuts → Unwind → Cuts → Unwind → Pause
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
5 things that happened in October:
Oil slid to $65
• Oversupply fears are rising
• OPEC+ is pumping, and is likely to approve another hike today
• Only US sanctions on Russia have slowed the fall in prices
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Oil slid to $65
• Oversupply fears are rising
• OPEC+ is pumping, and is likely to approve another hike today
• Only US sanctions on Russia have slowed the fall in prices
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
November 2, 2025 at 8:57 AM
5 things that happened in October:
Oil slid to $65
• Oversupply fears are rising
• OPEC+ is pumping, and is likely to approve another hike today
• Only US sanctions on Russia have slowed the fall in prices
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Oil slid to $65
• Oversupply fears are rising
• OPEC+ is pumping, and is likely to approve another hike today
• Only US sanctions on Russia have slowed the fall in prices
1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
A ceasefire of sorts:
• Israeli strikes on Gaza
• Following attacks on Israeli soldiers
• Israel has killed 94 Palestinians since truce
• Several US officials travelled to Israel to keep the pact intact
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Israeli strikes on Gaza
• Following attacks on Israeli soldiers
• Israel has killed 94 Palestinians since truce
• Several US officials travelled to Israel to keep the pact intact
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Israel Orders Strikes on Gaza in Fresh Threat to Ceasefire
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered “forceful strikes” against Hamas in response to attacks on Israeli soldiers in Gaza, jeopardizing a US-brokered ceasefire that’s held for just over two weeks.
www.bloomberg.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:32 AM
A ceasefire of sorts:
• Israeli strikes on Gaza
• Following attacks on Israeli soldiers
• Israel has killed 94 Palestinians since truce
• Several US officials travelled to Israel to keep the pact intact
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Israeli strikes on Gaza
• Following attacks on Israeli soldiers
• Israel has killed 94 Palestinians since truce
• Several US officials travelled to Israel to keep the pact intact
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"Although US sanctions on Russian giant energy companies Rosneft & Lukoil have jolted the industry .. the oil market remains oversupplied .. The industry is debating the magnitude of the glut, but few disagree that oil supply will run well ahead of demand"
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
OPEC+ Won’t Pivot on Production Until Oil Prices Fall Further
With apologies to Rene Descartes, to know what OPEC+ really thinks, pay attention to what it does rather than what it says. Despite warnings that it may pause — or even reverse — its campaign of produ...
www.bloomberg.com
October 27, 2025 at 9:49 AM
"Although US sanctions on Russian giant energy companies Rosneft & Lukoil have jolted the industry .. the oil market remains oversupplied .. The industry is debating the magnitude of the glut, but few disagree that oil supply will run well ahead of demand"
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...