Gary Sands
@yangguizi.bsky.social
Taiwan-based Senior Analyst (China, Taiwan) at Wikistrat. Former US diplomat. Op-eds: Forbes, National Interest, Newsweek, SCMP. Lived in China 2006-2012, Vietnam 2013-2018.
"It is in Beijing’s interest to reiterate its peaceful intentions, and it is in Washington’s interest to reinstate its previous position that it 'does not support Taiwan independence.'" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
America and China at the Edge of Ruin
A last chance to step back from the brink.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 12, 2026 at 12:33 PM
"It is in Beijing’s interest to reiterate its peaceful intentions, and it is in Washington’s interest to reinstate its previous position that it 'does not support Taiwan independence.'" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Although China does not publish the number of American visitors it has each year, it is widely accepted to be a mere fraction of what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic; indeed, very few Westerners are seen on the streets of Beijing these days. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
America and China at the Edge of Ruin
A last chance to step back from the brink.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 12, 2026 at 12:26 PM
Although China does not publish the number of American visitors it has each year, it is widely accepted to be a mere fraction of what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic; indeed, very few Westerners are seen on the streets of Beijing these days. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Unlike Venezuela, where Russia and China mostly grumbled as Trump installed a friendlier head of state, regime change in Iran crosses a line that both care deeply about. Iran supplies drones to Russia and oil to China. www.taipeitimes.com/News/editori...
Trump’s Iran gamble comes with big risks - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:49 AM
Unlike Venezuela, where Russia and China mostly grumbled as Trump installed a friendlier head of state, regime change in Iran crosses a line that both care deeply about. Iran supplies drones to Russia and oil to China. www.taipeitimes.com/News/editori...
As Kausikan clearly states, in Southeast Asia, when it comes to China and the US, “none are entirely trusted” and “they are trusted and distrusted for different reasons in different domains.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/ar...
Book review: What Asian century? - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:27 AM
As Kausikan clearly states, in Southeast Asia, when it comes to China and the US, “none are entirely trusted” and “they are trusted and distrusted for different reasons in different domains.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/ar...
Last year, 221 Taiwanese who traveled to China were reported missing, were detained and interrogated, or otherwise had their personal freedom restricted, compared with 55 in 2024. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
China using ‘lawfare’ to coerce Taiwan: Australian think tank - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com
February 12, 2026 at 10:47 AM
Last year, 221 Taiwanese who traveled to China were reported missing, were detained and interrogated, or otherwise had their personal freedom restricted, compared with 55 in 2024. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
“I only went to have fun and had no clue about who was going.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
High Court overturns acquittal in China-funded junket case - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com
February 12, 2026 at 10:44 AM
“I only went to have fun and had no clue about who was going.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
Smart, Overdue, and Preemptive Strike: Washington would exclude China from participating in major global financial organizations if its actions directly threaten Taiwan’s security. www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
US House bill warns China off Taiwan - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com
February 12, 2026 at 2:53 AM
Smart, Overdue, and Preemptive Strike: Washington would exclude China from participating in major global financial organizations if its actions directly threaten Taiwan’s security. www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
"a coup d’état as the most plausible way Iran’s present system might fall" www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-ira...
How the Iranian Regime Breaks
Elite fracture will come gradually and then suddenly.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 12, 2026 at 2:43 AM
"a coup d’état as the most plausible way Iran’s present system might fall" www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-ira...
"From Beijing’s perspective, such a war would function as a strategic diversion, tying down U.S. attention while China consolidates its position on Taiwan, the South China Sea, and critical technology supply chains." foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/11/i...
What War With Iran Would Look Like
Decapitation strikes against the regime are likely. An invasion is not.
foreignpolicy.com
February 12, 2026 at 1:44 AM
"From Beijing’s perspective, such a war would function as a strategic diversion, tying down U.S. attention while China consolidates its position on Taiwan, the South China Sea, and critical technology supply chains." foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/11/i...
The compact microwave beam technology could disrupt satellite operations in low Earth orbit all the way from the ground. interestingengineering.com/space/china-...
China's 20 GW microwave weapon could fry satellites in seconds
The compact microwave beam technology could disrupt satellite operations in low Earth orbit all the way from the ground.
interestingengineering.com
February 7, 2026 at 12:51 AM
The compact microwave beam technology could disrupt satellite operations in low Earth orbit all the way from the ground. interestingengineering.com/space/china-...
Wikistrat hosted Dr. Richard Weitz to examine what this volatile first year reveals about President Trump's foreign policy instincts, how the world has adapted to his methods, and what the remainder of his term is likely to look like. www.wikistrat.com/post/trump-2...
Marking One Year of Trump 2.0
Trump's second presidency reached one year without triggering predicted catastrophes, yet fundamental tensions remain unresolved. Alliances strained but held, tariffs disrupted without collapsing trad...
www.wikistrat.com
February 7, 2026 at 12:32 AM
Wikistrat hosted Dr. Richard Weitz to examine what this volatile first year reveals about President Trump's foreign policy instincts, how the world has adapted to his methods, and what the remainder of his term is likely to look like. www.wikistrat.com/post/trump-2...
Nvidia has not accepted the U.S. government's Know-Your-Customer (KYC) requirement as now drafted - to ensure China's military does not access the chips - among other conditions. www.reuters.com/world/china/...
Exclusive: Nvidia's AI chip sale to ByteDance hinges on conditions set by Trump administration
The Trump administration is willing to allow China's ByteDance to buy Nvidia's H200 chips, but the AI chipmaker has not agreed to proposed conditions for their use, according to a person familiar with...
www.reuters.com
February 6, 2026 at 11:50 AM
Nvidia has not accepted the U.S. government's Know-Your-Customer (KYC) requirement as now drafted - to ensure China's military does not access the chips - among other conditions. www.reuters.com/world/china/...
The Mighty Hornet IV is being developed as a low-cost, cruise missile-like weapon, and the two sides aim to base a "large quantity" of the systems in Taiwan as both a deterrent and a wartime asset, according to Kratos. www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Taiwan teams with US firm Kratos to build attack drones to counter China
U.S.-based Kratos Defense and Taiwan's military have successfully tested a new jet-powered attack drone, a move aimed at rapidly boosting the island's ability to field "large numbers" of low-cost dron...
www.reuters.com
February 6, 2026 at 11:28 AM
The Mighty Hornet IV is being developed as a low-cost, cruise missile-like weapon, and the two sides aim to base a "large quantity" of the systems in Taiwan as both a deterrent and a wartime asset, according to Kratos. www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Treasure Island www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
The Free World Needs Taiwan
Solidarity will protect prosperity.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 5, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Treasure Island www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
While “currently there is little risk of a war against Vietnam,” the Vietnamese planners write that “due to the U.S.’s belligerent nature we need to be vigilant to prevent the U.S. and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country.” globalnews.ca/news/1165040...
Vietnam prepared for possible U.S. ‘war of aggression,’ military doc shows - National | Globalnews.ca
The original Vietnamese document titled “The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan” was completed by the Ministry of Defense in August 2024, after Vietnam and the U.S. signed a new partnership.
globalnews.ca
February 4, 2026 at 9:49 PM
While “currently there is little risk of a war against Vietnam,” the Vietnamese planners write that “due to the U.S.’s belligerent nature we need to be vigilant to prevent the U.S. and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country.” globalnews.ca/news/1165040...
"The real question for Xi is whether he can author the denouement that so far seems to have eluded him: a military that lives up to his unforgiving standards of party loyalty and operational proficiency." (not by 2027 in my opinion) www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-des...
Xi the Destroyer
The latest military purge signals China’s leader is entering a new era.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 3, 2026 at 1:10 AM
"The real question for Xi is whether he can author the denouement that so far seems to have eluded him: a military that lives up to his unforgiving standards of party loyalty and operational proficiency." (not by 2027 in my opinion) www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-des...
"Xi has a long and well-documented history of hardhearted rationality. He does not generally act without reason." (IMO another reason why Xi will not risk an existential war with the US in the near term) www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-des...
Xi the Destroyer
The latest military purge signals China’s leader is entering a new era.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 3, 2026 at 1:04 AM
"Xi has a long and well-documented history of hardhearted rationality. He does not generally act without reason." (IMO another reason why Xi will not risk an existential war with the US in the near term) www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-des...
"Zhang’s dismissal is thus the ultimate illustration of just how little trust Xi has in the PLA." (If so, Xi will struggle to build his confidence in the PLA's capability to take Taiwan by 2027) www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-des...
Xi the Destroyer
The latest military purge signals China’s leader is entering a new era.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 3, 2026 at 12:56 AM
"Zhang’s dismissal is thus the ultimate illustration of just how little trust Xi has in the PLA." (If so, Xi will struggle to build his confidence in the PLA's capability to take Taiwan by 2027) www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-des...
Given China’s National Intelligence Law, which can compel citizens and organizations abroad to assist in intelligence-gathering, the government is concerned about potential leaks, the official said. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
China-born legislator-at-large raises security issues - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com
February 2, 2026 at 1:02 PM
Given China’s National Intelligence Law, which can compel citizens and organizations abroad to assist in intelligence-gathering, the government is concerned about potential leaks, the official said. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
"Can opposition parties' interests withstand the continued infiltration and erosion of national security by foreign forces like China? I think they will soon find out." asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-pic...
All Taiwan parties must face China reality, says minister banned by Beijing
Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang vows to enforce law, from RedNote ban to infiltration
asia.nikkei.com
February 2, 2026 at 12:45 PM
"Can opposition parties' interests withstand the continued infiltration and erosion of national security by foreign forces like China? I think they will soon find out." asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-pic...
"the purged generals from the 31st Army Corps are seen as the ones with the most knowledge and experience in preparing for a Taiwan operation, and their removal may have damaged that historical know-how." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?
How a convergence of factors could tempt Beijing to act.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 1, 2026 at 12:23 PM
"the purged generals from the 31st Army Corps are seen as the ones with the most knowledge and experience in preparing for a Taiwan operation, and their removal may have damaged that historical know-how." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
"China is now convinced that it is unlikely to see a U.S. president more indifferent toward Taiwan and more unlikely to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait than Donald Trump." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?
How a convergence of factors could tempt Beijing to act.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 1, 2026 at 12:12 PM
"China is now convinced that it is unlikely to see a U.S. president more indifferent toward Taiwan and more unlikely to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait than Donald Trump." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
"Zhang opposed rashly launching a full-scale armed operation against Taiwan at this stage, when the PLA is still not capable of comprehensively countering potential U.S. intervention and Taiwan's defenses." focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait...
Scholars see short-term dip in China war risk after Xi purges top general - Focus Taiwan
Taiwanese scholars said Friday that Chinese leader Xi Jinping's (習近平) recent purge of top general Zhang Youxia (張又俠) could make China less likely to launch a major war in the short term, including a m...
focustaiwan.tw
January 31, 2026 at 1:52 PM
"Zhang opposed rashly launching a full-scale armed operation against Taiwan at this stage, when the PLA is still not capable of comprehensively countering potential U.S. intervention and Taiwan's defenses." focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait...
"U.S. policymakers and force planners should take Xi’s top-to-bottom purge of the officer corps as a sign of his impatience with the PLA’s failure to meet his operational requirements—and not mistake such impatience for fear or distrust of the military." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/unsett...
The Unsettling Implications of Xi’s Military Purge
Why his impatience with Chinese commanders should worry U.S. policymakers.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 31, 2026 at 1:00 PM
"U.S. policymakers and force planners should take Xi’s top-to-bottom purge of the officer corps as a sign of his impatience with the PLA’s failure to meet his operational requirements—and not mistake such impatience for fear or distrust of the military." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/unsett...