Real GDP per capita growth per year has neared stagnation levels since 2008.

Much of the developed world is experiencing rapidly falling fertility rates. Attempts to reverse this fall – which in most developed countries has dropped far below the replacement threshold - have been unsuccessful so far.

Organisations of many kinds use GDP data. Governments, Non Governmental Organisations, Civil Societies, Businesses and a thousand others trust "official" economic data and use it as if it were holy writ. Highly regarded companies like global consultants McKinsey produce lists of the fastest growing countries to admire and perhaps invest in. Government aid is distributed, product plans put together, and factories built using such data as authoritative ammunition. - - Yet few bother to inquire whether the GDP data used is of reasonable quality. In reality a great deal of GDP data is of such poor quality it should never be used to site an ice cream stall let alone be part of an elaborate business plan.

Central banks the world over rely on deeply flawed data to make crucial decisions on interest rates. Few politicians, economists or bankers realise just how unreliable economic data has become in recent years. - - In the US the percentage of companies responding to two vital job surveys: the Bureau of Labour Statistics Non-Farm Payrolls (NFS) and Job Openings (JOLTS) has fallen dramatically since Covid. The release of the US Jobs data on the first Friday of each month still generates feverish anticipation in the financial markets, but how many realise that the response rate to the JOLTS survey has fallen from 65%+ to a little over 30% in just a few years. Anything close to a 30% response rate is unlikely to produce data good enough as the basis for vital decisions on monetary policy. - - The UK holds lead position for self-harm in respect of economic data quality, having decided to relocate the Office of National Statistics from central London to an obscure industrial park a 3 hour drive away. Some 90% of the previously London based ONS staff left their jobs, causing serious problems that persist to this day. - - The UK equivalent to the US Jobs surveys is the ONSs Labour Force Survey. It was designed to operate with a 55% response rate, but the length of the survey has been unwisely expanded, inevitably reducing response rates far below the desired level. In addition, as in many other countries, Covid led switches from in person to phone surveys brought survey response rates down further to (in the UK case) wholly unacceptable levels around 15% in 2023.

Chinas GDP growth record is extraordinary; its education system is extraordinary (it graduates 1.4m engineers a year and over 20% of the worlds bachelor degrees); it is far ahead of all countries in patent applications; it has a vast and highly skilled workforce focussed on the most tech intensive industries; and suggestions that China will get old before it gets rich due to the ending of its "demographic dividend" have been debunked by a recent paper pointing out that demographic changes have not been a critical driver of increases in GDP per Capita. Last but far from least, Asia as a whole is by far the biggest and fastest growing part of the world economy.

African GDP and Population data are both of very poor quality. Governance is also rated as being very poor, with many autocratic rulers interfering with economic data quality. Only 9% of African countries are rated as having A or B grade GDP data. Only 4% applies for Population data. 15% are rated as having A or B grade Governance. And five of the top ten largest (by GDP) sub-Saharan countries are rated as having D or E grade data. In these circumstances World Economics believes pan-African GDP or Population size, or measures such as GDP per Capita or Debt per Capita that dependent on either GDP or Population data, should be treated with circumspection.

In its share of global growth over the last decade, Pakistan ranks 3rd. Yet, due to Pakistan’s already high average temperature, climate change – as for much of South Asia – will be a key challenge for this developing country. Moreover, its average temperature has been rising over recent decades.

Thailand’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.2%, and decades of low fertility is now causing the working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees.

Debt poses a serious problem in most developed countries, and in many developing ones. But statistical omission and obfuscation hide the true problem. Rapidly rising numbers of old age dependants plus unfunded pay-as-you-go social security schemes are already causing unrest. More is likely to follow as state backed promises of medical and old age support become impossible to fulfil.

Economic Growth boosted by strong institutions and investment in human capital.

There is some dispute over which of the two undisputed superpowers is the biggest. - - The Economist (for example) clearly thinks America remains king of the jungle. Its issue dated May 13th 2023 subheads a paper called Peak China with the unequivocal "The meteoric rise of Chinas economy is ending". And notes later that "Even if Chinas economy does become the biggest in the world, its lead is likely to remain small". - - It must be emphasised that nothing is certain in the murky world of economic data. World Economics has spent many years studying - GDP measures - and knows a significant proportion of GDP data is little better than random numbers, as one notable economist referred to some African data. The Economist may be right. However there are good reasons for believing that Chinas GDP is already significantly bigger, and is continuing to grow significantly faster than that of America. Here they are: - - First, the view that the American economy is still bigger than Chinas rests mainly on using the unrefined dollar as the measure. But as all travellers know, a dollar in downtown Hanoi buys more than a dollar in NYC. In the same article we cite, The Economist itself points out that a basket of goods and services that costs $100 in America, costs only about $60 in China, yet measures US supremacy without considering the big price differentials. - - An alternative measure of country wealth is based on - Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) - , and is widely believed to be more reliable as a measure of relative GDP between countries than simple dollar values. In 2022, the IMF judged the Chinese economy in PPP terms to be 23% larger than America. At the same time, using PPP data the World Bank estimated the Chinese economy to be 18.8% larger than America. And even the CIA considered the differential in favour of China at 16%.

Decades of falling fertility are causing the working-age population of Austria to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger portion of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees.

The Americas have seen some of the sharpest downturns in fertility rates globally from 1970 to the present. The rate in Mexico, Chile and Jamaica, for example, has fallen threefold across that period and is now below the replacement threshold. Most countries across the Americas are now also below the replacement threshold. This means population growth will stagnate creating, in turn, more elderly demographics. It is probable that in the specific areas of Latin America and the Caribbean, women’s access to contraception – and, subsequently, their ability to plan their families – has been - central - to this plummet in fertility rates since 1970.

East Asia has been the primary driving force in global growth over the recent decades, but rapidly falling fertility rates suggest the region may cede its lead over the coming years. Childbearing levels across the region have been, on average, below the replacement rate since 2010. Other factors, such as disease and war, can affect population numbers, but fertility is by far the greatest indicator over time.

Much of the developed world is experiencing rapidly falling fertility rates. Attempts to reverse this fall – which in most developed countries has dropped far below the replacement threshold - have been unsuccessful so far.

Decades of low fertility are causing the Russian working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Attempts by the state to - increase the rate - appear to have been ineffective.

China has experienced a dramatic fall in fertility rates. With levels already far below replacement, depopulation is imminent. Other factors, such as disease and war, can affect population numbers, but fertility is by far the greatest indicator over time.

Decades of low fertility are causing Croatia’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees.

Decades of low fertility are causing the Italian working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees.

There is some dispute over which of the two undisputed superpowers is the biggest. - - The Economist (for example) clearly thinks America remains king of the jungle. Its issue dated May 13th 2023 subheads a paper called Peak China with the unequivocal "The meteoric rise of Chinas economy is ending". And notes later that "Even if Chinas economy does become the biggest in the world, its lead is likely to remain small". - - It must be emphasised that nothing is certain in the murky world of economic data. World Economics has spent many years studying - GDP measures - and knows a significant proportion of GDP data is little better than random numbers, as one notable economist referred to some African data. The Economist may be right. However there are good reasons for believing that Chinas GDP is already significantly bigger, and is continuing to grow significantly faster than that of America. Here they are: - - First, the view that the American economy is still bigger than Chinas rests mainly on using the unrefined dollar as the measure. But as all travellers know, a dollar in downtown Hanoi buys more than a dollar in NYC. In the same article we cite, The Economist itself points out that a basket of goods and services that costs $100 in America, costs only about $60 in China, yet measures US supremacy without considering the big price differentials. - - An alternative measure of country wealth is based on - Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) - , and is widely believed to be more reliable as a measure of relative GDP between countries than simple dollar values. In 2022, the IMF judged the Chinese economy in PPP terms to be 23% larger than America. At the same time, using PPP data the World Bank estimated the Chinese economy to be 18.8% larger than America. And even the CIA considered the differential in favour of China at 16%.

There has been much discussion of late by senior EU politicians (President Macron most recently in his much discussed "Europe - It can die " speech) and journalists (notably FT journalist Gideon Rachman, who suggested that American GDP was smaller than that of the EU in 2008, but is now 50% bigger), that the EU is falling far behind America in GDP terms. - - Such alarmist views stem from the use of the US dollar in inter country comparisons. - - One hundred US dollars would buy only around 63 euros in mid-2008. In mid-2025 they will buy far more - over 85 euros. Any comparison in dollars using such periods will inevitably produce comparisons that strain credibility. The same analysis in Purchasing Power Parity terms suggests relatively little change in real living standards over this period, and is a far better guide to the on-the-ground reality. - - Politicians and journalists would be better employed looking at comparisons of the growing size of Asia compared with the EU and the USA. The chart below illustrates the growth of China and India compared with the US and EU, in Purchasing Power Parity terms, with adjustments made by World Economics for outdated Base years in both China and India, and Informal economies (significantly bigger in Asia than in the West).

Decades of low fertility are causing Romania’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees.

Türkiye’s rating has declined on the - World Economics Governance Index - over the last decade. This reflects falling standards across data reflecting corruption, the rule of law, press freedom and political rights.

Decades of low fertility are causing Estonia’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees.

Norway’s fertility rate has been in decline in recent years. This is projected to cause the working-age population to fall by the end of this decade. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing a large decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees.