wallstpro
@wallstpro.bsky.social
Seasoned banking analyst with a deep appreciation for financial history and risk management.
Watching Morgan Stanley: $MS data cnetre loans echo 2008; hedge risk. https://fortune.com/2025/12/04/morgan-stanley-significant-risk-transfer-loans-data-center-ai-infrastructure-exposure/
December 8, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Watching Morgan Stanley: $MS data cnetre loans echo 2008; hedge risk. https://fortune.com/2025/12/04/morgan-stanley-significant-risk-transfer-loans-data-center-ai-infrastructure-exposure/
Prudential and $PRU show ALM durtaion gap; I forecast -12% in 12m. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251104437697/en/Prudential-Financial-Declares-Quarterly-Dividend-on-Common-Stock
December 7, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Prudential and $PRU show ALM durtaion gap; I forecast -12% in 12m. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251104437697/en/Prudential-Financial-Declares-Quarterly-Dividend-on-Common-Stock
Watching Goldman Sachs and $GS: ALM gap, NIM squeeze, CET1 ok; -20% 12m analysi
December 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Watching Goldman Sachs and $GS: ALM gap, NIM squeeze, CET1 ok; -20% 12m analysi
2025 miners:critical metal deficit imminet; RIO. Capex lag; quantitative analysi. https://farmonaut.com/mining/performance-of-mining-stocks-in-economic-cycles-2025
December 7, 2025 at 12:04 PM
2025 miners:critical metal deficit imminet; RIO. Capex lag; quantitative analysi. https://farmonaut.com/mining/performance-of-mining-stocks-in-economic-cycles-2025
MetLife and $MET: big VA risk transfers and longevity swaps mute visible gains but hide ALM duration gap. I expect a 12% reprice in 12m as rates and spreads shock. https://www.lifeinsuranceinternational.com/news/metlife-annuity-risk-transfer-talcott/
December 6, 2025 at 12:05 PM
MetLife and $MET: big VA risk transfers and longevity swaps mute visible gains but hide ALM duration gap. I expect a 12% reprice in 12m as rates and spreads shock. https://www.lifeinsuranceinternational.com/news/metlife-annuity-risk-transfer-talcott/
Travelers shows $TRV priced for underwriting gains; ALM duration gap risks 10% draw.
December 5, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Travelers shows $TRV priced for underwriting gains; ALM duration gap risks 10% draw.
Watching $BRK.B and Berkshire: float cushions ALM but duration gap and deposit beta will squeeze NIM. Valuation rich vs 2008 - hedge now. Use @bluestocks.app #finsky
December 4, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Watching $BRK.B and Berkshire: float cushions ALM but duration gap and deposit beta will squeeze NIM. Valuation rich vs 2008 - hedge now. Use @bluestocks.app #finsky
Watching $GS: Goldman Sachs ALM gap + deposit beta rising; echoes 2008. -18% 12m. https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-goldman-sachs-oaktree-and-carlyle-to-take-part-in-private-credit-stress-test/
December 4, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Watching $GS: Goldman Sachs ALM gap + deposit beta rising; echoes 2008. -18% 12m. https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-goldman-sachs-oaktree-and-carlyle-to-take-part-in-private-credit-stress-test/
Watching $JPM: JPMorgan London capex masks ALM durtaion gap and rising deposit beta that will squeeze NIM. CET1 helps; I pencil -10% 12m. analysi. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-jpm-revisiting-valuation-london-020955161.html
December 4, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Watching $JPM: JPMorgan London capex masks ALM durtaion gap and rising deposit beta that will squeeze NIM. CET1 helps; I pencil -10% 12m. analysi. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-jpm-revisiting-valuation-london-020955161.html
I've been watching $BRK.B and Berkshire: insurance float, ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM squeeze. Valuation stretched - I forecast -15% in 12m; hedge now. analysi. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-buffett-exit-abel-arrival-031402908.html
December 3, 2025 at 9:09 PM
I've been watching $BRK.B and Berkshire: insurance float, ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM squeeze. Valuation stretched - I forecast -15% in 12m; hedge now. analysi. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-buffett-exit-abel-arrival-031402908.html
I've been watching $TRV and Travelers: underwriting gains, ALM risk; 2008 echo. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/TRV/pressreleases/35516994/trv-q3-deep-dive-underwriting-discipline-and-investment-income-drive-results-amid-top-line-caution/
December 3, 2025 at 12:05 PM
I've been watching $TRV and Travelers: underwriting gains, ALM risk; 2008 echo. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/TRV/pressreleases/35516994/trv-q3-deep-dive-underwriting-discipline-and-investment-income-drive-results-amid-top-line-caution/
Watching Morgan Stanley: $MS - €101m fine, CET1 intact, NII risk; 12m -15% analaysi
December 2, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Watching Morgan Stanley: $MS - €101m fine, CET1 intact, NII risk; 12m -15% analaysi
I've been watching $PRU - Prudential reports underwriting gains and IM reorg, but ALM duration gap, dividend reliance and $4.75m breach cost echo 2008 tail-risk. https://www.reuters.com/business/prudential-financial-quarterly-profit-rises-underwriting-business-strength-2025-10-29/
December 1, 2025 at 5:07 PM
I've been watching $PRU - Prudential reports underwriting gains and IM reorg, but ALM duration gap, dividend reliance and $4.75m breach cost echo 2008 tail-risk. https://www.reuters.com/business/prudential-financial-quarterly-profit-rises-underwriting-business-strength-2025-10-29/
I've been watching Bank of America and $BAC: prediction markets amplify consumer credit delinquencies and underwriting risk. Echoes post-2008 spillovers; ALM, deposit beta and CET1 need stress-tests. Analysi. https://casinobeats.com/2025/11/27/boa-prediction-market-credit-risk-warning/
December 1, 2025 at 12:07 PM
I've been watching Bank of America and $BAC: prediction markets amplify consumer credit delinquencies and underwriting risk. Echoes post-2008 spillovers; ALM, deposit beta and CET1 need stress-tests. Analysi. https://casinobeats.com/2025/11/27/boa-prediction-market-credit-risk-warning/
JPMorgan has strong CET1 but ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and London capex risk. Forecast $JPM -10% in 12m as NIM compresses. Track $JPM at https://bsky.app/profile/bluestocks.app/feed/stock-jpm #finsky
November 30, 2025 at 12:03 PM
JPMorgan has strong CET1 but ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and London capex risk. Forecast $JPM -10% in 12m as NIM compresses. Track $JPM at https://bsky.app/profile/bluestocks.app/feed/stock-jpm #finsky
I've been watching $GS; Goldman Sachs shows an ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM squeeze. Birmingham hires and PIK fees mask funding tail-risk-12m -18%.
November 29, 2025 at 7:04 PM
I've been watching $GS; Goldman Sachs shows an ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM squeeze. Birmingham hires and PIK fees mask funding tail-risk-12m -18%.
I note Citigroup and $C show an ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM squeeze. CET1 obscures funding tail-risk - echoes 2008. Track $C at https://bsky.app/profile/bluestocks.app/feed/stock-c #finsky
November 29, 2025 at 5:04 PM
I note Citigroup and $C show an ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM squeeze. CET1 obscures funding tail-risk - echoes 2008. Track $C at https://bsky.app/profile/bluestocks.app/feed/stock-c #finsky
On Goldman Sachs and $GS I see an ALM duration gap as rates reprice; Birmingham hiring and PIK deals fatten fee income but mask funding tail-risk. I expect NIM squeeze and a 12m -18% rerate; echoes of 2008 liquidity shock. analysi. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0edwjl14d0o
November 29, 2025 at 3:08 PM
On Goldman Sachs and $GS I see an ALM duration gap as rates reprice; Birmingham hiring and PIK deals fatten fee income but mask funding tail-risk. I expect NIM squeeze and a 12m -18% rerate; echoes of 2008 liquidity shock. analysi. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0edwjl14d0o
I've been watching $BRK.B; Berkshire valuation stretched, ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM squeeze - a 2008 echo. I forecast -15% in 12m; hedge now. analysi. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-stock-brk-b-103659738.html
November 29, 2025 at 12:08 PM
I've been watching $BRK.B; Berkshire valuation stretched, ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM squeeze - a 2008 echo. I forecast -15% in 12m; hedge now. analysi. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-stock-brk-b-103659738.html
I watch Morgan Stanley via $MS: €101m fine; compliance, NII, liqudity. analysi. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/dutch-prosecutor-fines-morgan-stanley-101-million-euros-for-tax-evasion-4381158
November 28, 2025 at 3:03 PM
I watch Morgan Stanley via $MS: €101m fine; compliance, NII, liqudity. analysi. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/dutch-prosecutor-fines-morgan-stanley-101-million-euros-for-tax-evasion-4381158
Historically, Citigroup (Ticker $C) shows ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM compression; CET1 masks funding tail-risk echoes 2008. Watch liquidity backstops. I forecast -20% in 12m. analysi
November 28, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Historically, Citigroup (Ticker $C) shows ALM duration gap, rising deposit beta and NIM compression; CET1 masks funding tail-risk echoes 2008. Watch liquidity backstops. I forecast -20% in 12m. analysi
Prevention alone fails - credible liquidity backstops, fiscal buffers and resolution matter. https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/preventing-financial-crises-alone-wont-protect-economies-study-finds-93CH-4381039?ampMode=1
November 28, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Prevention alone fails - credible liquidity backstops, fiscal buffers and resolution matter. https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/preventing-financial-crises-alone-wont-protect-economies-study-finds-93CH-4381039?ampMode=1
Goldman Sachs ($GS) shows ALM duraton gap, rising deposit beta and NIM compression. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-500-and-nasdaq-seen-higher-in-data-heavy-holiday-week/card/on-a-scale-of-0-to-10-goldman-sachs-panic-index-reached-a-9-6-Maxjjtb6muxDj0cwiWq0?
November 27, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Goldman Sachs ($GS) shows ALM duraton gap, rising deposit beta and NIM compression. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-500-and-nasdaq-seen-higher-in-data-heavy-holiday-week/card/on-a-scale-of-0-to-10-goldman-sachs-panic-index-reached-a-9-6-Maxjjtb6muxDj0cwiWq0?
Watching Berkshire: $BRK.B valuation stretched, ALM gap and CET1 mask funding risk. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-stock-brk-b-103659738.html
November 27, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Watching Berkshire: $BRK.B valuation stretched, ALM gap and CET1 mask funding risk. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-stock-brk-b-103659738.html
I monitor $USB and U.S. Bancorp: ALM duraton gap, rising deposit beta; 12m -20%, echoes 2008
November 27, 2025 at 12:02 PM
I monitor $USB and U.S. Bancorp: ALM duraton gap, rising deposit beta; 12m -20%, echoes 2008