Volatility Trading
@volatilityvix.bsky.social
I'm the Volatility Guy - UVXY / VXX / VIX
Join VTS members from 70+ countries
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VolatilityTradingStrategies/videos
Join VTS members from 70+ countries
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VolatilityTradingStrategies/videos
The VIX index value is "the markets" forward expectation of S&P 500 return
For example, a daily S&P 500 expectation:
Divide the VIX by the square root of 252 (trading days)
Example) A VIX of 16 implies a 1.01% plus or minus daily S&P 500 move
For example, a daily S&P 500 expectation:
Divide the VIX by the square root of 252 (trading days)
Example) A VIX of 16 implies a 1.01% plus or minus daily S&P 500 move
February 12, 2026 at 3:07 PM
The VIX index value is "the markets" forward expectation of S&P 500 return
For example, a daily S&P 500 expectation:
Divide the VIX by the square root of 252 (trading days)
Example) A VIX of 16 implies a 1.01% plus or minus daily S&P 500 move
For example, a daily S&P 500 expectation:
Divide the VIX by the square root of 252 (trading days)
Example) A VIX of 16 implies a 1.01% plus or minus daily S&P 500 move
Don't OVER-react to market crashes. Patience is key
This Market Crash Mistake Could Cost You Big!
When the stock market crashes, many traders overreact and make poor decisions that end up costing them a lot more than the crash itself. Here's a friendly w...
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February 12, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Don't OVER-react to market crashes. Patience is key
UVXY Long-term decay factor
February 11, 2026 at 3:09 PM
UVXY Long-term decay factor
The VIX : VIX6M ratio can be a good basic gauge of risk on-risk off
0.8836 is the 66th percentile, so about 2/3's of trading days are below that value and would be a decent baseline for "aggressive" trades
0.8836 is the 66th percentile, so about 2/3's of trading days are below that value and would be a decent baseline for "aggressive" trades
February 10, 2026 at 3:07 PM
The VIX : VIX6M ratio can be a good basic gauge of risk on-risk off
0.8836 is the 66th percentile, so about 2/3's of trading days are below that value and would be a decent baseline for "aggressive" trades
0.8836 is the 66th percentile, so about 2/3's of trading days are below that value and would be a decent baseline for "aggressive" trades
What do VIX index values actually mean?
Here's how you can estimate S&P 500 movement using the VIX
Here's how you can estimate S&P 500 movement using the VIX
February 9, 2026 at 3:13 PM
What do VIX index values actually mean?
Here's how you can estimate S&P 500 movement using the VIX
Here's how you can estimate S&P 500 movement using the VIX
1% of the population is protected by the law, but not bound to it
99% of the population is bound by the law, but not protected by it
99% of the population is bound by the law, but not protected by it
February 9, 2026 at 3:07 PM
1% of the population is protected by the law, but not bound to it
99% of the population is bound by the law, but not protected by it
99% of the population is bound by the law, but not protected by it
The foundation of the VTS Portfolio and all our success since 2012 is due to the trade signals generated by my Volatility Barometer
Here's how it works 🧵
Here's how it works 🧵
February 9, 2026 at 3:04 PM
The foundation of the VTS Portfolio and all our success since 2012 is due to the trade signals generated by my Volatility Barometer
Here's how it works 🧵
Here's how it works 🧵
Claim your FREE trial to VTS 👇
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www.volatilitytradingstrategies.com
February 7, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Claim your FREE trial to VTS 👇
Post the best chart you saw this week 👇
If it's cool I'll add it to our "Chart Blitz" segment of the Volatility Barometer Podcast
If it's cool I'll add it to our "Chart Blitz" segment of the Volatility Barometer Podcast
February 6, 2026 at 3:17 PM
Post the best chart you saw this week 👇
If it's cool I'll add it to our "Chart Blitz" segment of the Volatility Barometer Podcast
If it's cool I'll add it to our "Chart Blitz" segment of the Volatility Barometer Podcast
One of the best ways to predict forward 10+ year return of the stock market is to look at the current valuation
- If stocks are undervalued right now, it's more likely to be a good forward decade
- If stocks are overvalued, it's more likely to be a lost forward decade
- If stocks are undervalued right now, it's more likely to be a good forward decade
- If stocks are overvalued, it's more likely to be a lost forward decade
February 6, 2026 at 3:14 PM
One of the best ways to predict forward 10+ year return of the stock market is to look at the current valuation
- If stocks are undervalued right now, it's more likely to be a good forward decade
- If stocks are overvalued, it's more likely to be a lost forward decade
- If stocks are undervalued right now, it's more likely to be a good forward decade
- If stocks are overvalued, it's more likely to be a lost forward decade
Losses are always more costly to an investment portfolio than gains are beneficial
The larger your drawdown, the more exponentially far away from getting back to break even you are
Conclusion: Risk Management is TOP priority! 🚨
The larger your drawdown, the more exponentially far away from getting back to break even you are
Conclusion: Risk Management is TOP priority! 🚨
February 5, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Losses are always more costly to an investment portfolio than gains are beneficial
The larger your drawdown, the more exponentially far away from getting back to break even you are
Conclusion: Risk Management is TOP priority! 🚨
The larger your drawdown, the more exponentially far away from getting back to break even you are
Conclusion: Risk Management is TOP priority! 🚨
Inflation is crushing people, and the government is lying about it
This is why you Feel Poor - The FED is LYING on Inflation
People need to realize WHY the Fed is lying about inflation. Many important things in our society, wages, social security nets, investment results, it's all...
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February 5, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Inflation is crushing people, and the government is lying about it
Selling naked Options can definitely blow up your account
But there's other reasons why you should never do it!
But there's other reasons why you should never do it!
February 4, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Selling naked Options can definitely blow up your account
But there's other reasons why you should never do it!
But there's other reasons why you should never do it!
3 Tactical Rotation Strategies:
- Different Volatility metrics
- Different Threshold levels
- Different Asset classes
3 point diversification for success!
- Different Volatility metrics
- Different Threshold levels
- Different Asset classes
3 point diversification for success!
February 3, 2026 at 3:07 PM
3 Tactical Rotation Strategies:
- Different Volatility metrics
- Different Threshold levels
- Different Asset classes
3 point diversification for success!
- Different Volatility metrics
- Different Threshold levels
- Different Asset classes
3 point diversification for success!
What's your score?
15/20 for me
15/20 for me
February 2, 2026 at 3:09 PM
What's your score?
15/20 for me
15/20 for me
Our VTS Bitcoin Breakpoint Strategy outperforms buy & hold by focusing on reducing the insane drawdowns that come with Crypto
Here's how it works 🧵
Here's how it works 🧵
February 2, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Our VTS Bitcoin Breakpoint Strategy outperforms buy & hold by focusing on reducing the insane drawdowns that come with Crypto
Here's how it works 🧵
Here's how it works 🧵
Far too many traders "double down" on previous losses in a failed belief that a previous loss makes the next one more likely to succeed
In most cases, it doesn't...
You'll be a better trader if you treat each occurrence as a stand alone position
In most cases, it doesn't...
You'll be a better trader if you treat each occurrence as a stand alone position
January 30, 2026 at 3:13 PM
Far too many traders "double down" on previous losses in a failed belief that a previous loss makes the next one more likely to succeed
In most cases, it doesn't...
You'll be a better trader if you treat each occurrence as a stand alone position
In most cases, it doesn't...
You'll be a better trader if you treat each occurrence as a stand alone position
For Short $VXX performance, what levels on the VIX index give the best results?
- Low VIX for trend following?
- Mid VIX for reversion to the mean?
- High VIX for contrarians?
Let's divide the VIX into quintiles and short $VXX in those 5 ranges:
- Low VIX for trend following?
- Mid VIX for reversion to the mean?
- High VIX for contrarians?
Let's divide the VIX into quintiles and short $VXX in those 5 ranges:
January 30, 2026 at 3:10 PM
For Short $VXX performance, what levels on the VIX index give the best results?
- Low VIX for trend following?
- Mid VIX for reversion to the mean?
- High VIX for contrarians?
Let's divide the VIX into quintiles and short $VXX in those 5 ranges:
- Low VIX for trend following?
- Mid VIX for reversion to the mean?
- High VIX for contrarians?
Let's divide the VIX into quintiles and short $VXX in those 5 ranges:
For Inverse (Short) Volatility ETPs like SVXY and SVIX, they track a constant rolling 30-day contract (VX30) comprised of front two month VIX futures
- If VX30 goes down, Short Vol ETPs gain value
- If VX30 goes up, Short Vol ETPs lose value
- If VX30 goes down, Short Vol ETPs gain value
- If VX30 goes up, Short Vol ETPs lose value
January 29, 2026 at 3:07 PM
For Inverse (Short) Volatility ETPs like SVXY and SVIX, they track a constant rolling 30-day contract (VX30) comprised of front two month VIX futures
- If VX30 goes down, Short Vol ETPs gain value
- If VX30 goes up, Short Vol ETPs lose value
- If VX30 goes down, Short Vol ETPs gain value
- If VX30 goes up, Short Vol ETPs lose value
Tactical Rotation through Volatility Targeting 👇
There's no better way to invest
There's no better way to invest
Move to Safety Before the Market Crashes: Volatility Trading
Tactical Investing through Volatility Targeting. The stock market is going to crash. Nobody knows when, but it will crash and you definitely do not want to...
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January 29, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Tactical Rotation through Volatility Targeting 👇
There's no better way to invest
There's no better way to invest
Abusing the "Look-ahead bias" is one of the main reasons people's live trading results are far worse than their backtests
Be careful not to use data that you would NOT have had early on in the backtest
Be careful not to use data that you would NOT have had early on in the backtest
January 27, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Abusing the "Look-ahead bias" is one of the main reasons people's live trading results are far worse than their backtests
Be careful not to use data that you would NOT have had early on in the backtest
Be careful not to use data that you would NOT have had early on in the backtest
USA vs China, battle of our generation
This Thucydides Trap will be very interesting...
This Thucydides Trap will be very interesting...
January 26, 2026 at 3:09 PM
USA vs China, battle of our generation
This Thucydides Trap will be very interesting...
This Thucydides Trap will be very interesting...
My VTS Strategic Tail Risk Strategy solves for the #1 problem investors face
What are you going to do when the market CRASHES?
What are you going to do when the market CRASHES?
January 26, 2026 at 3:05 PM
My VTS Strategic Tail Risk Strategy solves for the #1 problem investors face
What are you going to do when the market CRASHES?
What are you going to do when the market CRASHES?
Short Volatility and Long Stocks are correlated but there are times when one performs better than the other
You can boost your performance a lot by know when is the best time for each
Short Volatility will typically outperform stocks during extended "Low Volatility" periods
You can boost your performance a lot by know when is the best time for each
Short Volatility will typically outperform stocks during extended "Low Volatility" periods
January 23, 2026 at 3:13 PM
Short Volatility and Long Stocks are correlated but there are times when one performs better than the other
You can boost your performance a lot by know when is the best time for each
Short Volatility will typically outperform stocks during extended "Low Volatility" periods
You can boost your performance a lot by know when is the best time for each
Short Volatility will typically outperform stocks during extended "Low Volatility" periods
🧵 You'll often hear people say the average VIX Index value is 20
Is it though? 🤔
Now it's true the long-term MEAN is 19.58
Is it though? 🤔
Now it's true the long-term MEAN is 19.58
January 23, 2026 at 3:10 PM
🧵 You'll often hear people say the average VIX Index value is 20
Is it though? 🤔
Now it's true the long-term MEAN is 19.58
Is it though? 🤔
Now it's true the long-term MEAN is 19.58