Vincent Catalano
@vcat11.bsky.social
Some people look for evidence to support an already decided point of view. Others seek the truth.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-catalano-cfa-4416736/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-catalano-cfa-4416736/
ICYMI.
Destruction of the East Wing of the White House began today to make way for Trump’s ballroom.
Destruction of the East Wing of the White House began today to make way for Trump’s ballroom.
October 20, 2025 at 7:15 PM
ICYMI.
Destruction of the East Wing of the White House began today to make way for Trump’s ballroom.
Destruction of the East Wing of the White House began today to make way for Trump’s ballroom.
"With the major components of his agenda now coming into focus, President Trump has already left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. The triumphs and turbulence that may soon arise will squarely belong to him."
What could possibly go wrong?
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/u...
What could possibly go wrong?
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/u...
With Taxes and Tariffs in Place, Trump Takes Reins of U.S. Economy
www.nytimes.com
July 9, 2025 at 1:41 PM
"With the major components of his agenda now coming into focus, President Trump has already left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. The triumphs and turbulence that may soon arise will squarely belong to him."
What could possibly go wrong?
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/u...
What could possibly go wrong?
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/u...
My next appearance on Bloomberg radio is today at 4:05 pm ET. www.bloombergradio.com
Bloomberg Radio
Bloomberg Radio is the world's only global 24-hour business radio station. Powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
www.bloombergradio.com
June 30, 2025 at 4:04 PM
My next appearance on Bloomberg radio is today at 4:05 pm ET. www.bloombergradio.com
Donald Trump will do everything in his power to avoid doing something in which he will be held accountable.
June 20, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Donald Trump will do everything in his power to avoid doing something in which he will be held accountable.
Trump is in a real bind when it comes to Iran. He has to do something he absolutely hates to do: be held accountable. Will be interesting to see how he bobs and weaves his way around making a decision that he has to own.
June 18, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Trump is in a real bind when it comes to Iran. He has to do something he absolutely hates to do: be held accountable. Will be interesting to see how he bobs and weaves his way around making a decision that he has to own.
Trump understands America better than most people. He understands that America is mostly about the gullible and the greedy. The MAGA and the money. He plays one while enriching the other – and himself.
May 15, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Trump understands America better than most people. He understands that America is mostly about the gullible and the greedy. The MAGA and the money. He plays one while enriching the other – and himself.
Perhaps a little deep for most non investment professionals. That said, maybe give it try. www.linkedin.com/posts/vincen...
The Compensatory Optimism Hypothesis
Humans are not inherently… | Vincent Catalano, CFA
The Compensatory Optimism Hypothesis
Humans are not inherently optimistic. They are neurologically and evolutionarily biased toward caution, fear, and the avoidance of loss. This is known as negativi...
www.linkedin.com
May 1, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Perhaps a little deep for most non investment professionals. That said, maybe give it try. www.linkedin.com/posts/vincen...
Re the stock market: We're now approaching the erosion phase of a bear market. If I am right, the next phase will not be dramatic (until the end) but a steady erosion of stock prices until in a final panic phase. In other words, we're near the last stop before the train starts sliding downhill.
April 30, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Re the stock market: We're now approaching the erosion phase of a bear market. If I am right, the next phase will not be dramatic (until the end) but a steady erosion of stock prices until in a final panic phase. In other words, we're near the last stop before the train starts sliding downhill.
Will stagflation be as bad this time around as it was in the late 1970s? Apparently, Stephen Roach thinks so - maybe worse. open.substack.com/pub/stephenr...
Stagflation for the Ages
Project Syndicate: April 24, 2025
open.substack.com
April 24, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Will stagflation be as bad this time around as it was in the late 1970s? Apparently, Stephen Roach thinks so - maybe worse. open.substack.com/pub/stephenr...
Here’s a little something I am working on with the aid of AI.
April 23, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Here’s a little something I am working on with the aid of AI.
As per Torsten Sløk, Apollo Chief Economist.
April 21, 2025 at 7:24 PM
As per Torsten Sløk, Apollo Chief Economist.
How low can the market go? Let's do the math:
16 x $262 = 4192
4192 - 5138 = -946
-946 / 5138 = -18.5%
P/E x operating earnings for 2025 = estimated level S&P 500
estimated S&P 500 - current S&P 500 = probable change -946
probable change divided by current level = -18.5%
When? Mid 2025.
16 x $262 = 4192
4192 - 5138 = -946
-946 / 5138 = -18.5%
P/E x operating earnings for 2025 = estimated level S&P 500
estimated S&P 500 - current S&P 500 = probable change -946
probable change divided by current level = -18.5%
When? Mid 2025.
April 21, 2025 at 4:08 PM
How low can the market go? Let's do the math:
16 x $262 = 4192
4192 - 5138 = -946
-946 / 5138 = -18.5%
P/E x operating earnings for 2025 = estimated level S&P 500
estimated S&P 500 - current S&P 500 = probable change -946
probable change divided by current level = -18.5%
When? Mid 2025.
16 x $262 = 4192
4192 - 5138 = -946
-946 / 5138 = -18.5%
P/E x operating earnings for 2025 = estimated level S&P 500
estimated S&P 500 - current S&P 500 = probable change -946
probable change divided by current level = -18.5%
When? Mid 2025.
Anyone looking for a reason why Trump’s support will erode need only look at this chart.
Who stands to lose the most as the federal government cuts back?
Who stands to lose the most as the federal government cuts back?
April 21, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Anyone looking for a reason why Trump’s support will erode need only look at this chart.
Who stands to lose the most as the federal government cuts back?
Who stands to lose the most as the federal government cuts back?
Gödel’s loophole.
It is already operational in the US.
The Norm Death Spiral
Every broken norm that goes unpunished becomes a precedent. What used to disqualify now galvanizes. We’re in a moment where norms no longer enforce behavior—behavior redefines the norms.
It is already operational in the US.
The Norm Death Spiral
Every broken norm that goes unpunished becomes a precedent. What used to disqualify now galvanizes. We’re in a moment where norms no longer enforce behavior—behavior redefines the norms.
April 17, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Gödel’s loophole.
It is already operational in the US.
The Norm Death Spiral
Every broken norm that goes unpunished becomes a precedent. What used to disqualify now galvanizes. We’re in a moment where norms no longer enforce behavior—behavior redefines the norms.
It is already operational in the US.
The Norm Death Spiral
Every broken norm that goes unpunished becomes a precedent. What used to disqualify now galvanizes. We’re in a moment where norms no longer enforce behavior—behavior redefines the norms.
Trump Lashes Out at Powell, Says ‘Termination Cannot Come Fast Enough’
WSJ April 17, 2025
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qmee...
WSJ April 17, 2025
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qmee...
Adolf Hitler "Nein Nein Nein" Scene | Inglourious Basterds | German Scene | 1440p | 4K | Tarantino
YouTube video by TarantinoONLY
www.youtube.com
April 17, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Trump Lashes Out at Powell, Says ‘Termination Cannot Come Fast Enough’
WSJ April 17, 2025
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qmee...
WSJ April 17, 2025
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qmee...
If Trump can disregard the rule of law (courts, country agreements, migrants, etc.), is it not logical to assume he can disregard business law? Would it not be prudent for a business leader to withhold spending for the future (capex) and preserve capital for the sake of sheer survival?
April 17, 2025 at 2:23 AM
If Trump can disregard the rule of law (courts, country agreements, migrants, etc.), is it not logical to assume he can disregard business law? Would it not be prudent for a business leader to withhold spending for the future (capex) and preserve capital for the sake of sheer survival?
"To build may have to be the slow and laborious task of years. To destroy can be the thoughtless act of a single day."
Winston Churchill.
Winston Churchill.
April 12, 2025 at 1:23 AM
"To build may have to be the slow and laborious task of years. To destroy can be the thoughtless act of a single day."
Winston Churchill.
Winston Churchill.
Who knew drill, baby, drill meant drive the price of energy stocks into the ground!?!?
April 10, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Who knew drill, baby, drill meant drive the price of energy stocks into the ground!?!?
Anyone looking for the stock market to be their avenging angel, to right a wrong, they should drop that thought asap. The financial markets are amoral. They exist primarily for the purpose of making money. Full stop. They do not exist to make things right. They are not your avenging angel.
April 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Anyone looking for the stock market to be their avenging angel, to right a wrong, they should drop that thought asap. The financial markets are amoral. They exist primarily for the purpose of making money. Full stop. They do not exist to make things right. They are not your avenging angel.