David Ucko
@ucko.bsky.social
Head of Net Assessment @ NATO, author, and retired academic, writing in personal capacity.
This thought-provoking piece challenges common presumptions about strategic depth—particularly as concerns the Baltics. Lukas Milevski argues an invading military would move far slower than presumed due to sparse infrastructure, difficult terrain and the effects of contestation. lnkd.in/eHpAUaTH
Rethinking strategic depth in the Baltic States
It is a truism in defence analysis that the Baltic States lack strategic depth, giving the impression that strategic depth is immutable. Such spatial fatalism weakens strategic thinking by eliding ...
www.tandfonline.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:23 PM
This thought-provoking piece challenges common presumptions about strategic depth—particularly as concerns the Baltics. Lukas Milevski argues an invading military would move far slower than presumed due to sparse infrastructure, difficult terrain and the effects of contestation. lnkd.in/eHpAUaTH
I’m looking forward to an opportunity to discuss the topic of my recent book (The Insurgent’s Dilemma) in the context of evolving counterterrorism.
Registration for this virtual event is open to all.
Registration for this virtual event is open to all.
The National Security Series presents "What Does the Insurgent’s Dilemma Tell Us About Counterterrorism?" with Dr. David H. Ucko, Head of Net Assessment at NATO and Senior Visiting Fellow at King’s College London on Wed, Nov. 12 at 1:30 PM ET. RSVP: https://bit.ly/4qIIlh2
November 5, 2025 at 1:33 PM
I’m looking forward to an opportunity to discuss the topic of my recent book (The Insurgent’s Dilemma) in the context of evolving counterterrorism.
Registration for this virtual event is open to all.
Registration for this virtual event is open to all.
With the US military striking another alleged drug boat, can isolated hits effectively counter organized crime? My recent book (w/ Tom Marks) urges a strategic approach and lays out a framework for how to analyze the problem and craft a response. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-mo...
A Framework for Countering Organized Crime
States continue to struggle in their efforts to counter organized crime. Despite states having scored successes at the operational level, organized crime has proven too adaptable and too resilient to ...
digitalcommons.ndu.edu
October 29, 2025 at 12:43 PM
With the US military striking another alleged drug boat, can isolated hits effectively counter organized crime? My recent book (w/ Tom Marks) urges a strategic approach and lays out a framework for how to analyze the problem and craft a response. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-mo...
From 2023, but Cdr Spansvoll does a great job mapping out the informational, political and military LoE of Russia’s destabilization campaign vs Norway. The implication is very much that we need a campaign to counter a campaign—and that’s still v. relevant today.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Studying Moscow’s Coercive Campaign Against Norway
Norway’s geopolitical position as both a neighbour of Russia and a member of NATO places it at the forefront of Moscow’s self-assertive and aggressive foreign and security policy. However, Norway’s...
www.tandfonline.com
October 21, 2025 at 7:42 PM
From 2023, but Cdr Spansvoll does a great job mapping out the informational, political and military LoE of Russia’s destabilization campaign vs Norway. The implication is very much that we need a campaign to counter a campaign—and that’s still v. relevant today.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Given events in Israel/Gaza, I revisited my Dec23 assessment of who might prevail. Two years on, my sense is "plus ça change, plus ça reste la même chose" but also that all now hinges on the political consolidation of the peace deal—arguably the hardest bit. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...
Theories of Victory: Israel, Hamas, and the Meaning of Success in Irregular Warfare
Two months in, what does the war between Israel and Hamas tell us about victory and defeat in irregular warfare? There is no difficulty in identifying those who have lost the most through this conflic...
irregularwarfare.org
October 16, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Given events in Israel/Gaza, I revisited my Dec23 assessment of who might prevail. Two years on, my sense is "plus ça change, plus ça reste la même chose" but also that all now hinges on the political consolidation of the peace deal—arguably the hardest bit. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...
Despite an abstruse style, this is insightful on the need to adapt tactical-level logistics toward a more distributed (and less targetable) “push” system. Obviously nature of adversary matters and the caution about unsustainability warrants further thought. thecxfile.substack.com/p/contested-...
Contested Logistics: Restructuring Battalion Logistics to Combat Peer Threats
by First Lieutenant Brendan Sanders
thecxfile.substack.com
October 16, 2025 at 6:04 AM
Despite an abstruse style, this is insightful on the need to adapt tactical-level logistics toward a more distributed (and less targetable) “push” system. Obviously nature of adversary matters and the caution about unsustainability warrants further thought. thecxfile.substack.com/p/contested-...
Glad to see David Spencer‘s review of my book on the future of insurgency featured in RealClearDefense. He does a great job applying his own expertise to the argument I tried to advance. www.realcleardefense.com/2025/10/13/t...
The Insurgent’s Dilemma: A Struggle to Prevail
David E. Spencer’s review of The Insurgent’s Dilemma highlights David Ucko’s nuanced analysis of the strategic challenges insurgent movements face in balancing military efficacy with
www.realcleardefense.com
October 13, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Glad to see David Spencer‘s review of my book on the future of insurgency featured in RealClearDefense. He does a great job applying his own expertise to the argument I tried to advance. www.realcleardefense.com/2025/10/13/t...
Informative podcast with Samuel Bendett on tech adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Covers integration of commercial technology, the role of volunteers and innovators in society, and the crucial need to adapt—and adapt again—to a constantly changing battlefield.
open.spotify.com/episode/3fG4...
open.spotify.com/episode/3fG4...
The Military Technological Arms Race in Ukraine
open.spotify.com
October 12, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Informative podcast with Samuel Bendett on tech adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Covers integration of commercial technology, the role of volunteers and innovators in society, and the crucial need to adapt—and adapt again—to a constantly changing battlefield.
open.spotify.com/episode/3fG4...
open.spotify.com/episode/3fG4...
Insightful analysis of Russia’s breaking point by Ben Connable. Despite a record of sacrifice and fatalism, history suggests key vulnerabilities that are also in play for Russia today. As Ben also notes, much will also depends on our own resolve. warontherocks.com/2024/09/russ...
Russians Do Break: Historical and Cultural Context for a Prospective Ukrainian Victory
For major wars like the one being fought between Russia and Ukraine, the military, the people, and the state interact with one another to constitute a
warontherocks.com
October 9, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Insightful analysis of Russia’s breaking point by Ben Connable. Despite a record of sacrifice and fatalism, history suggests key vulnerabilities that are also in play for Russia today. As Ben also notes, much will also depends on our own resolve. warontherocks.com/2024/09/russ...
SITREP from Colombia: tremendous economic potential, long tradition of democracy and yet struggling as always with security and governance beyond the big cities. On that front, matters have worsened since the FARC peace deal.
economist.com/the-americas...
economist.com/the-americas...
Is Colombia at the “gates of hell”?
Opposing candidates in next year’s presidential election hold wildly divergent views of their country
economist.com
September 23, 2025 at 6:39 AM
SITREP from Colombia: tremendous economic potential, long tradition of democracy and yet struggling as always with security and governance beyond the big cities. On that front, matters have worsened since the FARC peace deal.
economist.com/the-americas...
economist.com/the-americas...
Good to see Moldova taking proactive measures to counter Russian disinformation and agitation. www.euronews.com/2025/09/22/m...
Moldova detains 74 over alleged Russian plot to stir up unrest
Online disinformation aimed at discrediting Moldova's pro-European government is ramping up ahead of the crunch parliamentary elections on 28 September.
www.euronews.com
September 22, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Good to see Moldova taking proactive measures to counter Russian disinformation and agitation. www.euronews.com/2025/09/22/m...
Perhaps living in Brussels made me particularly interested in this Rest is History series on the invasion of Belgium in 1914. Educational and enthralling, this is also relevant to the war in Ukraine and the prospect of further conflict in Europe in years to come.
podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...
The First World War: The Invasion of Belgium (Part 1)
Podcast Episode · The Rest Is History · 24/08/2025 · 56m
podcasts.apple.com
September 4, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Perhaps living in Brussels made me particularly interested in this Rest is History series on the invasion of Belgium in 1914. Educational and enthralling, this is also relevant to the war in Ukraine and the prospect of further conflict in Europe in years to come.
podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...
Austin Long provides important clarity on the Able Archer nuclear “non-crisis” of 1983. Held by some as a whisker away from Armageddon, the moment illustrates instead the need to understand both ourselves - the signals we send - and our enemy. strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/able-arche...
Able Archer 83 (Re)-revisited
Reflections on a Complex Non-crisis
strategicsimplicity.substack.com
July 19, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Austin Long provides important clarity on the Able Archer nuclear “non-crisis” of 1983. Held by some as a whisker away from Armageddon, the moment illustrates instead the need to understand both ourselves - the signals we send - and our enemy. strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/able-arche...
Drawing on his experience with FARC, David Spencer has penned a superb review of my book 'The Insurgent's Dilemma', exploring the innovations in insurgent strategy and response options that the book covers. Many thanks. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcont...
@hurstpublishers.bsky.social
@hurstpublishers.bsky.social
July 18, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Drawing on his experience with FARC, David Spencer has penned a superb review of my book 'The Insurgent's Dilemma', exploring the innovations in insurgent strategy and response options that the book covers. Many thanks. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcont...
@hurstpublishers.bsky.social
@hurstpublishers.bsky.social
Podcast: @markgaleotti.bsky.social dissects how a seemingly mundane counter-gang arrest in a provincial Russian capital has escalated the fall-out between Moscow and Baku - and there may be more to come…
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow? - In Moscow's Shadows
In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gan...
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com
July 17, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Podcast: @markgaleotti.bsky.social dissects how a seemingly mundane counter-gang arrest in a provincial Russian capital has escalated the fall-out between Moscow and Baku - and there may be more to come…
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
NOW OUT: A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Thomas A Marks (NDU Press).
Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...
Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...
July 17, 2025 at 6:50 AM
NOW OUT: A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Thomas A Marks (NDU Press).
Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...
Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...
Excellent discussion of Europe’s security and defence landscape with @edarnold.bsky.social, RUSI, via the great Modern War Institute at West Point podcast. Very relevant to #NATO. open.spotify.com/episode/7MSk...
A Survey of Europe's Defense and Security Landscape
Modern War Institute · Episode
open.spotify.com
June 4, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Excellent discussion of Europe’s security and defence landscape with @edarnold.bsky.social, RUSI, via the great Modern War Institute at West Point podcast. Very relevant to #NATO. open.spotify.com/episode/7MSk...
يا للروعة
I’m now available in Arabic, thanks to the Saudi National Defense University. They have translated our “Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action” (w/ Tom Marks, NDU Press)! I’m hopeful this will further extend the impact of this practioner’s toolkit.
I’m now available in Arabic, thanks to the Saudi National Defense University. They have translated our “Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action” (w/ Tom Marks, NDU Press)! I’m hopeful this will further extend the impact of this practioner’s toolkit.
May 6, 2025 at 7:38 PM
يا للروعة
I’m now available in Arabic, thanks to the Saudi National Defense University. They have translated our “Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action” (w/ Tom Marks, NDU Press)! I’m hopeful this will further extend the impact of this practioner’s toolkit.
I’m now available in Arabic, thanks to the Saudi National Defense University. They have translated our “Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action” (w/ Tom Marks, NDU Press)! I’m hopeful this will further extend the impact of this practioner’s toolkit.
Excellent news. Less excellent: “In total, the EU spent an estimated €23 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, exceeding the military support provided to Ukraine.”
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
EU sets 2027 as deadline to phase out all Russian fuels, including LNG
Imports of Russian oil, gas and nuclear materials must stop by 2027 at the very latest, Brussels has proposed in a new ambitious strategy. #EuropeNews
www.euronews.com
May 6, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Excellent news. Less excellent: “In total, the EU spent an estimated €23 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, exceeding the military support provided to Ukraine.”
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
Glad to announce that my latest work, “A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare,” now has a cover. Co-authored with Tom Marks, it presents organized crime as an IW problem and proposes a framework to help with analysis and response.
April 17, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Glad to announce that my latest work, “A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare,” now has a cover. Co-authored with Tom Marks, it presents organized crime as an IW problem and proposes a framework to help with analysis and response.
Good reporting on Iran’s use of criminal groups to exert influence abroad, specifically in Europe. The tactic is old; our response is… getting better. Much like Russia’s subversion, the problem isn’t just the singular attack but the broader strategy. newlinesmag.com/spotlight/ho....
How Iran Is Weaponizing Europe’s Criminal Underworld
Tehran is turning violent networks like Sweden’s Foxtrot and Ireland’s Kinahan cartel into tools of covert statecraft
newlinesmag.com
April 16, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Good reporting on Iran’s use of criminal groups to exert influence abroad, specifically in Europe. The tactic is old; our response is… getting better. Much like Russia’s subversion, the problem isn’t just the singular attack but the broader strategy. newlinesmag.com/spotlight/ho....
Very meaningful for me to contribute to this Festschrift for Christopher Coker, my mentor and friend for many years who sadly passed in 2023. www.hurstpublishers.com/book/coker-o...
Coker on War | Hurst Publishers
A homage to the late, great scholar of war, exploring his considerable legacy and engaging with questions of conflict and strategy in the same spirit.
www.hurstpublishers.com
April 2, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Very meaningful for me to contribute to this Festschrift for Christopher Coker, my mentor and friend for many years who sadly passed in 2023. www.hurstpublishers.com/book/coker-o...
Effective speech by Mark Rutte on the NATO today and tomorrow: a stronger, fairer and more lethal Alliance. This is a potent message to those who wonder about NATO and the commitment to trans-Atlantic security. www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...
Speech by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte followed by moderated discussion at the Warsaw School of Economics
(As delivered)
www.nato.int
April 2, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Effective speech by Mark Rutte on the NATO today and tomorrow: a stronger, fairer and more lethal Alliance. This is a potent message to those who wonder about NATO and the commitment to trans-Atlantic security. www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...
Job opening: A crucial opportunity to lead NATO defence policy and planning at a crucial time for the Alliance (…and you get to be my boss!) www.globaljobs.org/jobs/46638-b...
Assistant Secretary General Defence Policy and Planning job in Brussels, Belgium
Assistant Secretary General Defence Policy and Planning job in Brussels, Belgium
www.globaljobs.org
March 26, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Job opening: A crucial opportunity to lead NATO defence policy and planning at a crucial time for the Alliance (…and you get to be my boss!) www.globaljobs.org/jobs/46638-b...
Gavin Esler interviews Klaus Dodds on Arctic geopolitics. Insightful and informed discussion. open.spotify.com/episode/65CW...
Trump’s Greenland grab – A great power contest in the Arctic?
This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler · Episode
open.spotify.com
March 13, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Gavin Esler interviews Klaus Dodds on Arctic geopolitics. Insightful and informed discussion. open.spotify.com/episode/65CW...