Tzvi Machlin
@tzvi.bsky.social
Staff Writer for The Spun / Kachi Clash Ex-Yokozuna / twitch.tv/cyberstag
Pinned
The Kyushu basho is almost upon us. It's time to start the opening yusho odds.
Day 1 November yusho odds:
Onosato 70%
Hoshoryu 25%
The Field 5%
#sumo
Day 1 November yusho odds:
Onosato 70%
Hoshoryu 25%
The Field 5%
#sumo
Tokihayate is quietly having an exceptional tournament. He hasn't fought the top dogs yet and I don't think he's going to, so he could finish 12-3 and be in a potential playoff. A special prize seems certain.
Day 13 November yusho odds:
Onosato 48%
Hoshoryu 44%
Aonishiki 7%
Tokihayate 1%
#sumo
Day 13 November yusho odds:
Onosato 48%
Hoshoryu 44%
Aonishiki 7%
Tokihayate 1%
#sumo
November 20, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Tokihayate is quietly having an exceptional tournament. He hasn't fought the top dogs yet and I don't think he's going to, so he could finish 12-3 and be in a potential playoff. A special prize seems certain.
Day 13 November yusho odds:
Onosato 48%
Hoshoryu 44%
Aonishiki 7%
Tokihayate 1%
#sumo
Day 13 November yusho odds:
Onosato 48%
Hoshoryu 44%
Aonishiki 7%
Tokihayate 1%
#sumo
Chaos reigns on Day 11! Onosato and Aonishiki both lost, turning this into a 3-way tie with Hoshoryu. Yoshinofuji is suddenly lurking and can force his way into the conversation if he wins out.
Day 12 November yusho odds
Onosato 43%
Hoshoryu 40%
Yoshinofuji 10%
Aonishiki 7%
#sumo
Day 12 November yusho odds
Onosato 43%
Hoshoryu 40%
Yoshinofuji 10%
Aonishiki 7%
#sumo
November 19, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Chaos reigns on Day 11! Onosato and Aonishiki both lost, turning this into a 3-way tie with Hoshoryu. Yoshinofuji is suddenly lurking and can force his way into the conversation if he wins out.
Day 12 November yusho odds
Onosato 43%
Hoshoryu 40%
Yoshinofuji 10%
Aonishiki 7%
#sumo
Day 12 November yusho odds
Onosato 43%
Hoshoryu 40%
Yoshinofuji 10%
Aonishiki 7%
#sumo
Onosato is invincible no more! He falls at the hands of Yoshinofuji in their first-ever meeting. With Aonishiki and Hoshoryu both on strong winning streaks, things just got very interesting.
Day 11 November yusho odds
Onosato 70%
Aonishiki 14%
Hoshoryu 14%
Yoshinofuji 2%
#sumo
Day 11 November yusho odds
Onosato 70%
Aonishiki 14%
Hoshoryu 14%
Yoshinofuji 2%
#sumo
November 18, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Onosato is invincible no more! He falls at the hands of Yoshinofuji in their first-ever meeting. With Aonishiki and Hoshoryu both on strong winning streaks, things just got very interesting.
Day 11 November yusho odds
Onosato 70%
Aonishiki 14%
Hoshoryu 14%
Yoshinofuji 2%
#sumo
Day 11 November yusho odds
Onosato 70%
Aonishiki 14%
Hoshoryu 14%
Yoshinofuji 2%
#sumo
Hoshoryu and Aonishiki have been so good lately that I feel comfortable saying that it's now a 3-horse race, but Onosato still looks invincible. I think the only way Onosato doesn't take the yusho is if both of them beat him.
Day 10 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 1%
#sumo
Day 10 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 1%
#sumo
November 18, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Hoshoryu and Aonishiki have been so good lately that I feel comfortable saying that it's now a 3-horse race, but Onosato still looks invincible. I think the only way Onosato doesn't take the yusho is if both of them beat him.
Day 10 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 1%
#sumo
Day 10 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 1%
#sumo
Just when it looked like the Maegashira were rising, they lose. Feels like a 2-horse race that’ll be decided by Day 14 or even Day 13 at the latest.
Day 9 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
The Field 1%
#sumo
Day 9 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
The Field 1%
#sumo
November 16, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Just when it looked like the Maegashira were rising, they lose. Feels like a 2-horse race that’ll be decided by Day 14 or even Day 13 at the latest.
Day 9 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
The Field 1%
#sumo
Day 9 November yusho odds:
Onosato 90%
Aonishiki 9%
The Field 1%
#sumo
Aonishiki continues his charge, Fujinokawa looks even better than he did on debut, and Yoshinofuji looks exactly like he was advertised before September. But an Onosato zensho is still likely.
Day 8 November yusho odds:
Onosato 86%
Aonishiki 6%
Fujinokawa 3%
Yoshinofuji 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
Day 8 November yusho odds:
Onosato 86%
Aonishiki 6%
Fujinokawa 3%
Yoshinofuji 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
November 15, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Aonishiki continues his charge, Fujinokawa looks even better than he did on debut, and Yoshinofuji looks exactly like he was advertised before September. But an Onosato zensho is still likely.
Day 8 November yusho odds:
Onosato 86%
Aonishiki 6%
Fujinokawa 3%
Yoshinofuji 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
Day 8 November yusho odds:
Onosato 86%
Aonishiki 6%
Fujinokawa 3%
Yoshinofuji 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
H oshoryu falls on his face - kinda literally. Wouldn’t shock me if he finished 11-4 or 12-3 but Onosato makes him look so average with his dominance.
Day 7 November yusho odds:
Onosato 85%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%
#sumo
Day 7 November yusho odds:
Onosato 85%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%
#sumo
November 15, 2025 at 5:24 AM
H oshoryu falls on his face - kinda literally. Wouldn’t shock me if he finished 11-4 or 12-3 but Onosato makes him look so average with his dominance.
Day 7 November yusho odds:
Onosato 85%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%
#sumo
Day 7 November yusho odds:
Onosato 85%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%
#sumo
I haven't followed sumo long enough to see Hakuho at his peak or even during his decline. But watching Onosato, I can only assume that's what many of The GOAT's tournaments looked like.
Day 6 November yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 10%
Fujinokawa 5%
Aonishiki 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
Day 6 November yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 10%
Fujinokawa 5%
Aonishiki 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
November 13, 2025 at 3:53 PM
I haven't followed sumo long enough to see Hakuho at his peak or even during his decline. But watching Onosato, I can only assume that's what many of The GOAT's tournaments looked like.
Day 6 November yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 10%
Fujinokawa 5%
Aonishiki 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
Day 6 November yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 10%
Fujinokawa 5%
Aonishiki 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
I feel like I'm saying this every day but Aonishiki just gets better and better. Hoping the reports that he's not up for Ozeki are misleading. Meanwhile, Fujinokawa looks incredible. Tournament dark horse.
Day 5 November yusho odds:
Onosato 78%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 8%
The Field 5%
#sumo
Day 5 November yusho odds:
Onosato 78%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 8%
The Field 5%
#sumo
November 12, 2025 at 4:38 PM
I feel like I'm saying this every day but Aonishiki just gets better and better. Hoping the reports that he's not up for Ozeki are misleading. Meanwhile, Fujinokawa looks incredible. Tournament dark horse.
Day 5 November yusho odds:
Onosato 78%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 8%
The Field 5%
#sumo
Day 5 November yusho odds:
Onosato 78%
Aonishiki 9%
Hoshoryu 8%
The Field 5%
#sumo
My apologies to Oho if I gave him the "kiss of death" yesterday. We now have four unbeatens: Onosato, Aonishiki, Fujinokawa and Asakoryu. Could the latter two be November's Kotoshoho?
Day 4 November yusho odds:
Onosato 77%
Hoshoryu 8%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%
#sumo
Day 4 November yusho odds:
Onosato 77%
Hoshoryu 8%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%
#sumo
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 PM
My apologies to Oho if I gave him the "kiss of death" yesterday. We now have four unbeatens: Onosato, Aonishiki, Fujinokawa and Asakoryu. Could the latter two be November's Kotoshoho?
Day 4 November yusho odds:
Onosato 77%
Hoshoryu 8%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%
#sumo
Day 4 November yusho odds:
Onosato 77%
Hoshoryu 8%
Aonishiki 8%
The Field 7%
#sumo
Strong couple of days for our san'yaku, with Oho really surprising me thus far. 8-2 from our top 5 guys is rock solid. Seems like Onosato will remain the favorite until someone gives him trouble.
Day 3 November yusho odds:
Onosato 75%
Hoshoryu 7%
Aonishiki 7%
Abi 6%
Oho 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
Day 3 November yusho odds:
Onosato 75%
Hoshoryu 7%
Aonishiki 7%
Abi 6%
Oho 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
November 11, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Strong couple of days for our san'yaku, with Oho really surprising me thus far. 8-2 from our top 5 guys is rock solid. Seems like Onosato will remain the favorite until someone gives him trouble.
Day 3 November yusho odds:
Onosato 75%
Hoshoryu 7%
Aonishiki 7%
Abi 6%
Oho 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
Day 3 November yusho odds:
Onosato 75%
Hoshoryu 7%
Aonishiki 7%
Abi 6%
Oho 3%
The Field 2%
#sumo
The Kyushu basho is almost upon us. It's time to start the opening yusho odds.
Day 1 November yusho odds:
Onosato 70%
Hoshoryu 25%
The Field 5%
#sumo
Day 1 November yusho odds:
Onosato 70%
Hoshoryu 25%
The Field 5%
#sumo
November 4, 2025 at 5:00 PM
The Kyushu basho is almost upon us. It's time to start the opening yusho odds.
Day 1 November yusho odds:
Onosato 70%
Hoshoryu 25%
The Field 5%
#sumo
Day 1 November yusho odds:
Onosato 70%
Hoshoryu 25%
The Field 5%
#sumo
Quick November basho predictions:
- Onosato goes 14-1. His zensho again thwarted by Hoshoryu on Day 15. Hoshoryu finishes 12-3.
- Aonishiki finishes close but just misses Ozeki promotion at 10-5
- 10+ wins from Abi, Kirishima, Kinbozan, Gonoyama and Fujinokawa
#sumo
- Onosato goes 14-1. His zensho again thwarted by Hoshoryu on Day 15. Hoshoryu finishes 12-3.
- Aonishiki finishes close but just misses Ozeki promotion at 10-5
- 10+ wins from Abi, Kirishima, Kinbozan, Gonoyama and Fujinokawa
#sumo
November 1, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Quick November basho predictions:
- Onosato goes 14-1. His zensho again thwarted by Hoshoryu on Day 15. Hoshoryu finishes 12-3.
- Aonishiki finishes close but just misses Ozeki promotion at 10-5
- 10+ wins from Abi, Kirishima, Kinbozan, Gonoyama and Fujinokawa
#sumo
- Onosato goes 14-1. His zensho again thwarted by Hoshoryu on Day 15. Hoshoryu finishes 12-3.
- Aonishiki finishes close but just misses Ozeki promotion at 10-5
- 10+ wins from Abi, Kirishima, Kinbozan, Gonoyama and Fujinokawa
#sumo
Day 15. For the first time in 5 years we're getting a Yokozuna vs. Yokozuna match.
Hoshoryu has had Onosato's number through the years but needs to beat him twice to claim his 3rd title.
Onosato just needs to win once.
September yusho odds:
Onosato 66%
Hoshoryu 34%
#sumo
Hoshoryu has had Onosato's number through the years but needs to beat him twice to claim his 3rd title.
Onosato just needs to win once.
September yusho odds:
Onosato 66%
Hoshoryu 34%
#sumo
September 27, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Day 15. For the first time in 5 years we're getting a Yokozuna vs. Yokozuna match.
Hoshoryu has had Onosato's number through the years but needs to beat him twice to claim his 3rd title.
Onosato just needs to win once.
September yusho odds:
Onosato 66%
Hoshoryu 34%
#sumo
Hoshoryu has had Onosato's number through the years but needs to beat him twice to claim his 3rd title.
Onosato just needs to win once.
September yusho odds:
Onosato 66%
Hoshoryu 34%
#sumo
Another note, Aonishiki reaches 10-3 for the basho, giving him his 13th straight tournament finishing 5 wins above .500 since his debut. To put that into perspective, Onosato only has 12 tournaments where he's been 5 over .500 despite having 15 total tournaments and only 2 below Juryo. #sumo
Well that was unexpected. Hoshoryu's 2nd loss means that if he loses to Wakatakakage and Onosato beats Kotozakura, the title will be decided before Day 15. Crossing my fingers Hosh avoids the L vs. WTK, but his record isn't promising.
Day 14 September yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 20%
#sumo
Day 14 September yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 20%
#sumo
September 26, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Another note, Aonishiki reaches 10-3 for the basho, giving him his 13th straight tournament finishing 5 wins above .500 since his debut. To put that into perspective, Onosato only has 12 tournaments where he's been 5 over .500 despite having 15 total tournaments and only 2 below Juryo. #sumo
Well that was unexpected. Hoshoryu's 2nd loss means that if he loses to Wakatakakage and Onosato beats Kotozakura, the title will be decided before Day 15. Crossing my fingers Hosh avoids the L vs. WTK, but his record isn't promising.
Day 14 September yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 20%
#sumo
Day 14 September yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 20%
#sumo
September 26, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Well that was unexpected. Hoshoryu's 2nd loss means that if he loses to Wakatakakage and Onosato beats Kotozakura, the title will be decided before Day 15. Crossing my fingers Hosh avoids the L vs. WTK, but his record isn't promising.
Day 14 September yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 20%
#sumo
Day 14 September yusho odds:
Onosato 80%
Hoshoryu 20%
#sumo
Unbelievable! Aonishiki hands Hoshoryu his first loss while Ryuden ryuins Shodai's tournament hopes. Yes, Takanosho is still only 1 off the pace but it doesn't matter. He won't win the yusho (though I'd be happy if he did).
Day 13 September yusho odds:
Onosato 54%
Hoshoryu 45%
The Field 1%
#sumo
Day 13 September yusho odds:
Onosato 54%
Hoshoryu 45%
The Field 1%
#sumo
September 25, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Unbelievable! Aonishiki hands Hoshoryu his first loss while Ryuden ryuins Shodai's tournament hopes. Yes, Takanosho is still only 1 off the pace but it doesn't matter. He won't win the yusho (though I'd be happy if he did).
Day 13 September yusho odds:
Onosato 54%
Hoshoryu 45%
The Field 1%
#sumo
Day 13 September yusho odds:
Onosato 54%
Hoshoryu 45%
The Field 1%
#sumo
What a tournament for Shodai this has been. 12-3/13-2 are very much on the table for him right now. Idk why he isn’t being paired against the Yokozuna this week but there’s a path to victory for him.
Day 12 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 47%
Onosato 46%
Shodai 7%
#sumo
Day 12 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 47%
Onosato 46%
Shodai 7%
#sumo
September 24, 2025 at 12:43 PM
What a tournament for Shodai this has been. 12-3/13-2 are very much on the table for him right now. Idk why he isn’t being paired against the Yokozuna this week but there’s a path to victory for him.
Day 12 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 47%
Onosato 46%
Shodai 7%
#sumo
Day 12 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 47%
Onosato 46%
Shodai 7%
#sumo
The final 5 days are here. Our Yokozuna sit atop the leaderboard though I’m surprised none of the chasers are facing them today.
Day 11 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 46%
Onosato 46%
Aonishiki 3%
Ryuden 3%
Shodai 2%
#sumo
Day 11 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 46%
Onosato 46%
Aonishiki 3%
Ryuden 3%
Shodai 2%
#sumo
September 23, 2025 at 1:31 PM
The final 5 days are here. Our Yokozuna sit atop the leaderboard though I’m surprised none of the chasers are facing them today.
Day 11 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 46%
Onosato 46%
Aonishiki 3%
Ryuden 3%
Shodai 2%
#sumo
Day 11 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 46%
Onosato 46%
Aonishiki 3%
Ryuden 3%
Shodai 2%
#sumo
Close call victories by our 2 Yokozuna, but a W is a W. Shodai is still going strong, Aonishiki lurks, Takanosho had a setback and Ryuden is making a run.
Day 10 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 43%
Onosato 43%
Shodai 11%
Aonishiki 1%
Takanosho 1%
Ryuden 1%
#sumo
Day 10 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 43%
Onosato 43%
Shodai 11%
Aonishiki 1%
Takanosho 1%
Ryuden 1%
#sumo
September 22, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Close call victories by our 2 Yokozuna, but a W is a W. Shodai is still going strong, Aonishiki lurks, Takanosho had a setback and Ryuden is making a run.
Day 10 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 43%
Onosato 43%
Shodai 11%
Aonishiki 1%
Takanosho 1%
Ryuden 1%
#sumo
Day 10 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 43%
Onosato 43%
Shodai 11%
Aonishiki 1%
Takanosho 1%
Ryuden 1%
#sumo
It’s safe to say the field has now narrowed to 5. Our Yokozuna are crushing it, Aonishiki weathered the storm and two veterans are feasting on the rank and file.
Day 9 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 42%
Onosato 42%
Shodai 10%
Aonishiki 4%
Takanosho 2%
#sumo
Day 9 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 42%
Onosato 42%
Shodai 10%
Aonishiki 4%
Takanosho 2%
#sumo
September 21, 2025 at 2:21 PM
It’s safe to say the field has now narrowed to 5. Our Yokozuna are crushing it, Aonishiki weathered the storm and two veterans are feasting on the rank and file.
Day 9 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 42%
Onosato 42%
Shodai 10%
Aonishiki 4%
Takanosho 2%
#sumo
Day 9 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 42%
Onosato 42%
Shodai 10%
Aonishiki 4%
Takanosho 2%
#sumo
One week down, one to go. The field may seem narrow, but Hoshoryu’s first loss will really open the whole thing up (if it happens).
Day 8 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 40%
Onosato 40%
The Field 20%
#sumo
Day 8 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 40%
Onosato 40%
The Field 20%
#sumo
September 21, 2025 at 3:28 AM
One week down, one to go. The field may seem narrow, but Hoshoryu’s first loss will really open the whole thing up (if it happens).
Day 8 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 40%
Onosato 40%
The Field 20%
#sumo
Day 8 September yusho odds:
Hoshoryu 40%
Onosato 40%
The Field 20%
#sumo
I've said a lot about how many great performances there are but not much about how many bad ones I've seen. 4 guys are 0-6, three of them between Komusubi and M3. The November banzuke will look very different.
Day 7 September yusho odds:
Onosato 45%
Hoshoryu 35%
The Field 20%
#sumo
Day 7 September yusho odds:
Onosato 45%
Hoshoryu 35%
The Field 20%
#sumo
September 19, 2025 at 5:26 PM
I've said a lot about how many great performances there are but not much about how many bad ones I've seen. 4 guys are 0-6, three of them between Komusubi and M3. The November banzuke will look very different.
Day 7 September yusho odds:
Onosato 45%
Hoshoryu 35%
The Field 20%
#sumo
Day 7 September yusho odds:
Onosato 45%
Hoshoryu 35%
The Field 20%
#sumo
I can no longer deny it: Hoshoryu is having his best week as a Yokozuna thus far. Despite some close calls on the first few days he controls his own destiny. I just hope we get a Y1e v Y1w match at the end.
Day 6 September yusho odds:
Onosato 42%
Hoshoryu 33%
The Field 25%
#sumo
Day 6 September yusho odds:
Onosato 42%
Hoshoryu 33%
The Field 25%
#sumo
September 18, 2025 at 3:11 PM
I can no longer deny it: Hoshoryu is having his best week as a Yokozuna thus far. Despite some close calls on the first few days he controls his own destiny. I just hope we get a Y1e v Y1w match at the end.
Day 6 September yusho odds:
Onosato 42%
Hoshoryu 33%
The Field 25%
#sumo
Day 6 September yusho odds:
Onosato 42%
Hoshoryu 33%
The Field 25%
#sumo
Only two rikishi remain unbeaten through 4 - Hoshoryu and Kirishima - both of whom have looked stellar. But 13 are within one and 11 of them are Maegashira. This could get interesting
Day 5 September yusho odds:
Onosato 40%
Kirishima 25%
Hoshoryu 20%
The Field 15%
#sumo
Day 5 September yusho odds:
Onosato 40%
Kirishima 25%
Hoshoryu 20%
The Field 15%
#sumo
September 17, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Only two rikishi remain unbeaten through 4 - Hoshoryu and Kirishima - both of whom have looked stellar. But 13 are within one and 11 of them are Maegashira. This could get interesting
Day 5 September yusho odds:
Onosato 40%
Kirishima 25%
Hoshoryu 20%
The Field 15%
#sumo
Day 5 September yusho odds:
Onosato 40%
Kirishima 25%
Hoshoryu 20%
The Field 15%
#sumo