@tommijohnsen.bsky.social
Markets price narratives faster than humans can read them.
The question isn’t if sentiment matters it’s how to measure it correctly.
🔗https://open.substack.com/pub/tommijohnsen/p/th-market-reads-the-news-do-you?r=5jnw1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
The question isn’t if sentiment matters it’s how to measure it correctly.
🔗https://open.substack.com/pub/tommijohnsen/p/th-market-reads-the-news-do-you?r=5jnw1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
December 16, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Markets price narratives faster than humans can read them.
The question isn’t if sentiment matters it’s how to measure it correctly.
🔗https://open.substack.com/pub/tommijohnsen/p/th-market-reads-the-news-do-you?r=5jnw1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
The question isn’t if sentiment matters it’s how to measure it correctly.
🔗https://open.substack.com/pub/tommijohnsen/p/th-market-reads-the-news-do-you?r=5jnw1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
The real risk right now isn’t inflation it’s complacency about the labor market
Headline payrolls mask weakening trends, rising layoff chatter and slowing momentum beneath the surface
That’s why the Fed’s post-December path is far from clear
open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Headline payrolls mask weakening trends, rising layoff chatter and slowing momentum beneath the surface
That’s why the Fed’s post-December path is far from clear
open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
December 13, 2025 at 12:20 PM
The real risk right now isn’t inflation it’s complacency about the labor market
Headline payrolls mask weakening trends, rising layoff chatter and slowing momentum beneath the surface
That’s why the Fed’s post-December path is far from clear
open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Headline payrolls mask weakening trends, rising layoff chatter and slowing momentum beneath the surface
That’s why the Fed’s post-December path is far from clear
open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
The December Fed rate cut isn’t a prediction — it’s basically a spoiler.
Cooling labor + no incoming data = decision made.
Full breakdown → open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Cooling labor + no incoming data = decision made.
Full breakdown → open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Will the Fed cut rates in December?
Yes. I think it’s baked in.Thanks for reading!
open.substack.com
December 2, 2025 at 2:42 PM
The December Fed rate cut isn’t a prediction — it’s basically a spoiler.
Cooling labor + no incoming data = decision made.
Full breakdown → open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Cooling labor + no incoming data = decision made.
Full breakdown → open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Hot take: The real AI bubble isn’t Nvidia.
It’s the Application layer no one is paying attention to.
Receipts inside → tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/applicatio...
It’s the Application layer no one is paying attention to.
Receipts inside → tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/applicatio...
Applications firms harvest AI from Platforms into an end-user value.
But are they overpriced?
tommijohnsen.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Hot take: The real AI bubble isn’t Nvidia.
It’s the Application layer no one is paying attention to.
Receipts inside → tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/applicatio...
It’s the Application layer no one is paying attention to.
Receipts inside → tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/applicatio...
AI’s platform layer might already be overpriced — some shockingly so. Heatmap + odds here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Analyzing the Platforms!
If we accept that the muscle of AI is Infrastructure, then the Platform layer must be the brain and the most likely place for the next AI winner to emerge: model developers, data clouds, and orchestra...
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 8:08 PM
AI’s platform layer might already be overpriced — some shockingly so. Heatmap + odds here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
AI isn’t a monolith. It’s a layered economy.
Cash starts in infrastructure, then moves up the stack.
My latest post shows where value is landing & includes a heatmap of AI infra names that may be pricing in too much optimism.
Read here: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Cash starts in infrastructure, then moves up the stack.
My latest post shows where value is landing & includes a heatmap of AI infra names that may be pricing in too much optimism.
Read here: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Analyzing AI firms
Why Think in Layers?
open.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 5:19 PM
AI isn’t a monolith. It’s a layered economy.
Cash starts in infrastructure, then moves up the stack.
My latest post shows where value is landing & includes a heatmap of AI infra names that may be pricing in too much optimism.
Read here: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Cash starts in infrastructure, then moves up the stack.
My latest post shows where value is landing & includes a heatmap of AI infra names that may be pricing in too much optimism.
Read here: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
The AI market is 3 stories tall: Infrastructure → Platform → Application.
I map leaders, risks (power + leverage), and where value flows next.
Full guide: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
I map leaders, risks (power + leverage), and where value flows next.
Full guide: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
November 3, 2025 at 7:09 PM
The AI market is 3 stories tall: Infrastructure → Platform → Application.
I map leaders, risks (power + leverage), and where value flows next.
Full guide: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
I map leaders, risks (power + leverage), and where value flows next.
Full guide: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
AI: Boom or Bubble?
Goldman Sachs says we’re not in bubble territory—yet.
But private vs. public valuations are diverging, firms are investing in each other, and leverage is through the roof.
Innovation—or inflation by another name?
👉 Read my breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Goldman Sachs says we’re not in bubble territory—yet.
But private vs. public valuations are diverging, firms are investing in each other, and leverage is through the roof.
Innovation—or inflation by another name?
👉 Read my breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
AI: Is it an Overheated Bubble, the Beginning of a Boom, or Both?
The answer is unsatisfying (Goldman Sachs, Oct 22, 2025) as most analysts stop short of the bubble label.
open.substack.com
October 29, 2025 at 12:32 PM
AI: Boom or Bubble?
Goldman Sachs says we’re not in bubble territory—yet.
But private vs. public valuations are diverging, firms are investing in each other, and leverage is through the roof.
Innovation—or inflation by another name?
👉 Read my breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Goldman Sachs says we’re not in bubble territory—yet.
But private vs. public valuations are diverging, firms are investing in each other, and leverage is through the roof.
Innovation—or inflation by another name?
👉 Read my breakdown: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Rare earths aren’t rare — just hard to find in useful form.
These 17 metals power our modern world—from magnets in phones to turbines and EVs. Few understand their history or why they became so geopolitically charged.
My latest Substack:
🔗 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
These 17 metals power our modern world—from magnets in phones to turbines and EVs. Few understand their history or why they became so geopolitically charged.
My latest Substack:
🔗 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
What Exactly Are Rare Earth Elements Anyway?
The term “rare earth” is a misnomer, held over from an era when chemists laboriously extracted tiny amounts from exotic ores.
open.substack.com
October 22, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Rare earths aren’t rare — just hard to find in useful form.
These 17 metals power our modern world—from magnets in phones to turbines and EVs. Few understand their history or why they became so geopolitically charged.
My latest Substack:
🔗 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
These 17 metals power our modern world—from magnets in phones to turbines and EVs. Few understand their history or why they became so geopolitically charged.
My latest Substack:
🔗 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
“The price is the prediction.”
A new era of finance is emerging powered by blockchain, stablecoins, and crowd intelligence.
The Wisdom of Crowds, Rebooted → open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
A new era of finance is emerging powered by blockchain, stablecoins, and crowd intelligence.
The Wisdom of Crowds, Rebooted → open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
The Wisdom of Crowds, Rebooted as Prediction Markets
Markets have always priced risk.
open.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 12:44 PM
“The price is the prediction.”
A new era of finance is emerging powered by blockchain, stablecoins, and crowd intelligence.
The Wisdom of Crowds, Rebooted → open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
A new era of finance is emerging powered by blockchain, stablecoins, and crowd intelligence.
The Wisdom of Crowds, Rebooted → open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
How long will the shutdown last?
Markets: 85% odds ≥10 days; ~50/50 beyond Oct 15.
Here’s how it could skew CPI/BLS data and what to watch next:https://open.substack.com/pub/tommijohnsen/p/how-long-will-the-government-shutdown?r=5jnw1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Markets: 85% odds ≥10 days; ~50/50 beyond Oct 15.
Here’s how it could skew CPI/BLS data and what to watch next:https://open.substack.com/pub/tommijohnsen/p/how-long-will-the-government-shutdown?r=5jnw1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
October 8, 2025 at 3:15 PM
How long will the shutdown last?
Markets: 85% odds ≥10 days; ~50/50 beyond Oct 15.
Here’s how it could skew CPI/BLS data and what to watch next:https://open.substack.com/pub/tommijohnsen/p/how-long-will-the-government-shutdown?r=5jnw1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Markets: 85% odds ≥10 days; ~50/50 beyond Oct 15.
Here’s how it could skew CPI/BLS data and what to watch next:https://open.substack.com/pub/tommijohnsen/p/how-long-will-the-government-shutdown?r=5jnw1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
🚨 900,000 jobs—gone. Overnight.
Not a recession. Not outsourcing.
A statistical error.
If our economic data is this fragile, what else don’t we know?
👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Not a recession. Not outsourcing.
A statistical error.
If our economic data is this fragile, what else don’t we know?
👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
When 900,000 Jobs Vanish Overnight
The U.S.
open.substack.com
October 3, 2025 at 3:33 PM
🚨 900,000 jobs—gone. Overnight.
Not a recession. Not outsourcing.
A statistical error.
If our economic data is this fragile, what else don’t we know?
👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Not a recession. Not outsourcing.
A statistical error.
If our economic data is this fragile, what else don’t we know?
👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Shutdown headlines scream crisis. Markets usually shrug. Bonds sink, stocks recover, dollar stays weak. Will 2025 be the exception? open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
How Government Shutdowns Affect Financial Markets
Government shutdowns regularly capture headlines, but their market impact has historically been limited.
open.substack.com
October 1, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Shutdown headlines scream crisis. Markets usually shrug. Bonds sink, stocks recover, dollar stays weak. Will 2025 be the exception? open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Rate cuts aren’t always the relief investors hope for.
Historically, they’ve arrived after markets peak—right before recessions in most cycles.
Exceptions are rare.
Full analysis + strategy playbook here: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Historically, they’ve arrived after markets peak—right before recessions in most cycles.
Exceptions are rare.
Full analysis + strategy playbook here: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Late-Cycle Signals: How Fed Timing and Market Peaks Align
Looking at past Federal Reserve cycles, rate cuts have typically come late in the game.
open.substack.com
September 24, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Rate cuts aren’t always the relief investors hope for.
Historically, they’ve arrived after markets peak—right before recessions in most cycles.
Exceptions are rare.
Full analysis + strategy playbook here: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Historically, they’ve arrived after markets peak—right before recessions in most cycles.
Exceptions are rare.
Full analysis + strategy playbook here: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Ever wonder if factor investing has a seasonal rhythm?
Turns out it does — Value shines in January, Growth pops in June, Quality closes the year strong. Timing these beats standing still.
I unpack the patterns + heatmap here:
👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Turns out it does — Value shines in January, Growth pops in June, Quality closes the year strong. Timing these beats standing still.
I unpack the patterns + heatmap here:
👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Factor Seasonality Unpacked: Timing factors beats standing still
Most investors know about the “January Effect”.
open.substack.com
September 11, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Ever wonder if factor investing has a seasonal rhythm?
Turns out it does — Value shines in January, Growth pops in June, Quality closes the year strong. Timing these beats standing still.
I unpack the patterns + heatmap here:
👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Turns out it does — Value shines in January, Growth pops in June, Quality closes the year strong. Timing these beats standing still.
I unpack the patterns + heatmap here:
👉 open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
The GenAI Divide is widening.
Winners? Firms using AI that adapts, integrates into workflows, & proves ROI.
Losers? Those chasing flashy demos without financial outcomes.
MIT’s State of AI in Business 2025 explains what investors should really watch: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Winners? Firms using AI that adapts, integrates into workflows, & proves ROI.
Losers? Those chasing flashy demos without financial outcomes.
MIT’s State of AI in Business 2025 explains what investors should really watch: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
September 5, 2025 at 1:12 PM
The GenAI Divide is widening.
Winners? Firms using AI that adapts, integrates into workflows, & proves ROI.
Losers? Those chasing flashy demos without financial outcomes.
MIT’s State of AI in Business 2025 explains what investors should really watch: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
Winners? Firms using AI that adapts, integrates into workflows, & proves ROI.
Losers? Those chasing flashy demos without financial outcomes.
MIT’s State of AI in Business 2025 explains what investors should really watch: open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
What if the Fed Chair could actually be fired by the White House?
Fed independence has kept inflation low & markets steady since 1913. Legal challenges now put that at risk.
More here 👉 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/imagine-th...
Fed independence has kept inflation low & markets steady since 1913. Legal challenges now put that at risk.
More here 👉 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/imagine-th...
Imagine the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve getting a pink slip from the White House!
Fed independence is under fire. Does it matter? Oh yeah.
tommijohnsen.substack.com
August 27, 2025 at 10:21 PM
What if the Fed Chair could actually be fired by the White House?
Fed independence has kept inflation low & markets steady since 1913. Legal challenges now put that at risk.
More here 👉 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/imagine-th...
Fed independence has kept inflation low & markets steady since 1913. Legal challenges now put that at risk.
More here 👉 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/imagine-th...
Wall Street rallies. Main Street struggles. The Fed is the missing link.
Read how monetary policy fuels stocks:
👉 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/from-free-...
Read how monetary policy fuels stocks:
👉 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/from-free-...
From Free Markets to Fed Markets: How monetary easing (lowering interest rates) lifts stocks
In the past decade, central banks especially the U.S.
tommijohnsen.substack.com
August 19, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Wall Street rallies. Main Street struggles. The Fed is the missing link.
Read how monetary policy fuels stocks:
👉 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/from-free-...
Read how monetary policy fuels stocks:
👉 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/from-free-...
Momentum investing has a dirty secret… and a radical cure. 😳 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/is-managin...
Is managing momentum crash risk with volatility switching the best way to go?
The answer: YES.
tommijohnsen.substack.com
August 14, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Momentum investing has a dirty secret… and a radical cure. 😳 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/is-managin...
Momentum often wins—until the market snaps back.
Crash. Burn. Repeat.
A powerful behavioral signal may explain these sudden blowups:
📌 The 52-Week High Effect
Want to know why it matters?
🔗 Read the full post: tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-dark-s...
Crash. Burn. Repeat.
A powerful behavioral signal may explain these sudden blowups:
📌 The 52-Week High Effect
Want to know why it matters?
🔗 Read the full post: tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-dark-s...
The Dark Side of Momentum Strategies: Momentum Crashes.
Every once in awhile, Momentum strategies blow up, despite their strong long term record of superior performance.
tommijohnsen.substack.com
August 7, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Momentum often wins—until the market snaps back.
Crash. Burn. Repeat.
A powerful behavioral signal may explain these sudden blowups:
📌 The 52-Week High Effect
Want to know why it matters?
🔗 Read the full post: tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-dark-s...
Crash. Burn. Repeat.
A powerful behavioral signal may explain these sudden blowups:
📌 The 52-Week High Effect
Want to know why it matters?
🔗 Read the full post: tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-dark-s...
Momentum is like surfing: ride the wave, wipe out in a panic recovery.
When volatility spikes, the losers start winning—and the winners eat sand.
Here’s when you should flip the script and buy losers:
tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/smart-mome...
When volatility spikes, the losers start winning—and the winners eat sand.
Here’s when you should flip the script and buy losers:
tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/smart-mome...
Smart Momentum: When to Flip the Script and Buy Losers
Momentum investing means buying stocks that have performed well recently and shorting those that have performed poorly, typically over the past 3–12 months.
tommijohnsen.substack.com
July 30, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Momentum is like surfing: ride the wave, wipe out in a panic recovery.
When volatility spikes, the losers start winning—and the winners eat sand.
Here’s when you should flip the script and buy losers:
tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/smart-mome...
When volatility spikes, the losers start winning—and the winners eat sand.
Here’s when you should flip the script and buy losers:
tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/smart-mome...
🚨 One coin. One week. Total collapse.
A new crypto paper shows how a single moonshot trade destroyed a momentum strategy.
Full breakdown on Substack ↓
open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
A new crypto paper shows how a single moonshot trade destroyed a momentum strategy.
Full breakdown on Substack ↓
open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
July 21, 2025 at 11:49 AM
🚨 One coin. One week. Total collapse.
A new crypto paper shows how a single moonshot trade destroyed a momentum strategy.
Full breakdown on Substack ↓
open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
A new crypto paper shows how a single moonshot trade destroyed a momentum strategy.
Full breakdown on Substack ↓
open.substack.com/pub/tommijoh...
10 years since the first stablecoin.
$150B+ in circulation.
<90 academic papers.
Researchers are finally catching up. What do we know now? What’s still unclear?
I break it down in my latest Substack:
🔗 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-academ...
#stablecoins #crypto #web3 #futureofmoney
$150B+ in circulation.
<90 academic papers.
Researchers are finally catching up. What do we know now? What’s still unclear?
I break it down in my latest Substack:
🔗 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-academ...
#stablecoins #crypto #web3 #futureofmoney
The Academic Verdict on Stablecoins: A Decade In, What Do We Know?
Setting the stage: the first stablecoin, a crypto-backed token called BitUSD, debuted in July 2014.
tommijohnsen.substack.com
July 15, 2025 at 12:18 PM
10 years since the first stablecoin.
$150B+ in circulation.
<90 academic papers.
Researchers are finally catching up. What do we know now? What’s still unclear?
I break it down in my latest Substack:
🔗 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-academ...
#stablecoins #crypto #web3 #futureofmoney
$150B+ in circulation.
<90 academic papers.
Researchers are finally catching up. What do we know now? What’s still unclear?
I break it down in my latest Substack:
🔗 tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-academ...
#stablecoins #crypto #web3 #futureofmoney
Stablecoins just stepped out of the regulatory grey zone. What happens next might change everything →https://tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-regulatory-path-ahead-stability?r=5jnw1h
July 8, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Stablecoins just stepped out of the regulatory grey zone. What happens next might change everything →https://tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/the-regulatory-path-ahead-stability?r=5jnw1h
Terra. Tether. USDC.
Stablecoins run the crypto market... until they don’t.
What happens when trust runs dry? And why is the U.S. government stepping in?
Full piece here: tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/stablecoin...
Stablecoins run the crypto market... until they don’t.
What happens when trust runs dry? And why is the U.S. government stepping in?
Full piece here: tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/stablecoin...
STABLECOINS: The Good, The Bad, and The Road Ahead.
At 3 a.m.
tommijohnsen.substack.com
June 28, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Terra. Tether. USDC.
Stablecoins run the crypto market... until they don’t.
What happens when trust runs dry? And why is the U.S. government stepping in?
Full piece here: tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/stablecoin...
Stablecoins run the crypto market... until they don’t.
What happens when trust runs dry? And why is the U.S. government stepping in?
Full piece here: tommijohnsen.substack.com/p/stablecoin...