Spyros Andreopoulos
@thinicemacro.bsky.social
Macroeconomist, politics junkie, wine lover. Ex ECB, BNP, Morgan Stanley. I blog on macro, central banks, climate on thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com.
🇯🇵 #Takaichi landslide #election victory is an opportunity for a policy reset in #Japan: she needs to restore the credibility of the policy #framework- #BoJ and #fiscal 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Takaichi Needs to Restore Policy Credibility
For both monetary and fiscal policy
open.substack.com
February 9, 2026 at 7:55 AM
🇯🇵 #Takaichi landslide #election victory is an opportunity for a policy reset in #Japan: she needs to restore the credibility of the policy #framework- #BoJ and #fiscal 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB will be on hold in next week’s meeting, so market focus will be on the #euro.
👉 Language on #fx next week shouldn’t be much more than the usual
❗️Another leg down in #USD could elicit stronger language
My meeting preview: 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
👉 Language on #fx next week shouldn’t be much more than the usual
❗️Another leg down in #USD could elicit stronger language
My meeting preview: 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
€CB Preview: Some Talk, No Action on FX
Rates firmly on hold
open.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 3:02 PM
#ECB will be on hold in next week’s meeting, so market focus will be on the #euro.
👉 Language on #fx next week shouldn’t be much more than the usual
❗️Another leg down in #USD could elicit stronger language
My meeting preview: 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
👉 Language on #fx next week shouldn’t be much more than the usual
❗️Another leg down in #USD could elicit stronger language
My meeting preview: 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Small example of how far-right populists in Europe will ... how can I put this?, struggle to co-operate.
cf also AfD views on France asking the #ECB to help with French debt costs.
cf also AfD views on France asking the #ECB to help with French debt costs.
A senior figure from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has called for Poland to pay his country €1.3bn as reparations for its “complicity” in the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines.
His demand has been met with anger in Poland, with one government minister calling it “outrageous”.
His demand has been met with anger in Poland, with one government minister calling it “outrageous”.
Senior AfD figure demands Poland pay Germany reparations for Nord Stream sabotage
notesfrompoland.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Small example of how far-right populists in Europe will ... how can I put this?, struggle to co-operate.
cf also AfD views on France asking the #ECB to help with French debt costs.
cf also AfD views on France asking the #ECB to help with French debt costs.
www.linkedin.com/posts/spyros...
In 🇩🇪, a few thoughts on the situation in #Japan 🇯🇵 #JPY #JGB #BoJ #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #econtwitter
In 🇩🇪, a few thoughts on the situation in #Japan 🇯🇵 #JPY #JGB #BoJ #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #econtwitter
Steckt Japan in der Schuldenkrise? | Spyros Andreopoulos 🇺🇦
Die Situation in #Japan sieht brenzlich 🔥 aus. Der #Yen wertet ab 📉 und die #Renditen steigen 📈 weiter.
Die Sitzung der #BankofJapan scheint zunächst für Stabilität gesorgt zu haben, aber von Ent...
www.linkedin.com
January 23, 2026 at 1:49 PM
www.linkedin.com/posts/spyros...
In 🇩🇪, a few thoughts on the situation in #Japan 🇯🇵 #JPY #JGB #BoJ #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #econtwitter
In 🇩🇪, a few thoughts on the situation in #Japan 🇯🇵 #JPY #JGB #BoJ #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #econtwitter
Is it just me or was Carney’s speech mainly addressed at Europe? Digested read: “wake up, stop whining, get your act together.”
January 22, 2026 at 1:27 PM
Is it just me or was Carney’s speech mainly addressed at Europe? Digested read: “wake up, stop whining, get your act together.”
The next #ECB Pres should be German 🇩🇪, I argued - reprinted by the @financialtimes.com (thank you @olafstorbeck.ft.com).
With plenty of qualified people around for the position, 🇪🇺 can afford to make a choice for the right #political, even #geopolitical, reasons.
Link to the full piece 👇
With plenty of qualified people around for the position, 🇪🇺 can afford to make a choice for the right #political, even #geopolitical, reasons.
Link to the full piece 👇
January 6, 2026 at 5:55 PM
The next #ECB Pres should be German 🇩🇪, I argued - reprinted by the @financialtimes.com (thank you @olafstorbeck.ft.com).
With plenty of qualified people around for the position, 🇪🇺 can afford to make a choice for the right #political, even #geopolitical, reasons.
Link to the full piece 👇
With plenty of qualified people around for the position, 🇪🇺 can afford to make a choice for the right #political, even #geopolitical, reasons.
Link to the full piece 👇
“Just don’t mention the #hike.” My #comms guide for the #ECB meeting - see my latest #substack newsletter, sub is free 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECBmeeting #euro #EURUSD #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECBmeeting #euro #EURUSD #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
ECB Preview: Don't Mention the Hike
A comms guide
open.substack.com
December 13, 2025 at 10:35 AM
“Just don’t mention the #hike.” My #comms guide for the #ECB meeting - see my latest #substack newsletter, sub is free 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECBmeeting #euro #EURUSD #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECBmeeting #euro #EURUSD #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
Exploring #Hassett at the #Fed 🪑
US #monetarypolicy will be #procyclical next year, but the #economy will limit the scope for #rate ✂️ even for a Hassett Fed. #Boom in ’26 could transition to #bust in ’27.
My latest #Substack 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ThinIceMacro
US #monetarypolicy will be #procyclical next year, but the #economy will limit the scope for #rate ✂️ even for a Hassett Fed. #Boom in ’26 could transition to #bust in ’27.
My latest #Substack 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ThinIceMacro
https://open.substack.com/pub/thinicemac…
December 5, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Exploring #Hassett at the #Fed 🪑
US #monetarypolicy will be #procyclical next year, but the #economy will limit the scope for #rate ✂️ even for a Hassett Fed. #Boom in ’26 could transition to #bust in ’27.
My latest #Substack 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ThinIceMacro
US #monetarypolicy will be #procyclical next year, but the #economy will limit the scope for #rate ✂️ even for a Hassett Fed. #Boom in ’26 could transition to #bust in ’27.
My latest #Substack 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ThinIceMacro
Digested read on #secondChinashock in #Europe.
#ECB #geopolitics #globalimbalances
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB #geopolitics #globalimbalances
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
China 2.0: European Economy Edition
It's a big deal
open.substack.com
November 15, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Digested read on #secondChinashock in #Europe.
#ECB #geopolitics #globalimbalances
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB #geopolitics #globalimbalances
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My #ECB review. Two interesting morsels out of an otherwise boring meeting. #eurozone #euro #thinicemacro
ECB Meeting Review: What Monetary Policy?
We do digital euro now
open.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 4:14 PM
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My #ECB review. Two interesting morsels out of an otherwise boring meeting. #eurozone #euro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB #meeting preview. The #eurozone low excitement #economy means there will be few surprises next week out of Frankfurt. #Lagarde #euro #Fed
#ECB #meeting preview. The #eurozone low excitement #economy means there will be few surprises next week out of Frankfurt. #Lagarde #euro #Fed
ECB Preview: Low Excitement Equilibrium
December cut could be in play though
open.substack.com
October 25, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Why #Germany’s #industry continues to struggle: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
German Industry: An Autopsy
Murder or suicide?
open.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 7:02 AM
Why #Germany’s #industry continues to struggle: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Spyros Andreopoulos (@spyrosandreopoulos)
🇪🇺 ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood? 💶
👉 The song remains the same. The controversies covered the usual topics: the #euro, whether it would appreciate further, and what it does to ...
substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 1:10 PM
#ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Will Stablecoins Turbocharge the Exorbitant Privilege? open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... In the long term, it’s still the US’ #fiscal probity and the ability of the #Fed to deliver low and stable #inflation that will determine whether the #dollar maintains its position. #institutions #stablecoins
Will Stablecoins Turbocharge the Exorbitant Privilege?
Back to the basics
open.substack.com
September 21, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Will Stablecoins Turbocharge the Exorbitant Privilege? open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... In the long term, it’s still the US’ #fiscal probity and the ability of the #Fed to deliver low and stable #inflation that will determine whether the #dollar maintains its position. #institutions #stablecoins
The #ECB #governingcouncil will keep rates unch in September. I exp staff #inflation #projections to be lowered slightly. That should make for more nuanced #communication than in July.
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt - ECB Preview: Wait-and-Watch Continues
... but more nuance on inflation
open.substack.com
September 7, 2025 at 9:53 AM
The #ECB #governingcouncil will keep rates unch in September. I exp staff #inflation #projections to be lowered slightly. That should make for more nuanced #communication than in July.
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Frankfurt, We Have a (China) Problem
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.
September 1, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Frankfurt, We Have a (China) Problem
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.
Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
People make institutions
open.substack.com
August 31, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
Case for disinflation everywhere else now stronger
open.substack.com
August 10, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
Is a strong currency good or bad for stocks?
open.substack.com
August 2, 2025 at 1:19 PM
FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close
The elephant in the room
open.substack.com
July 21, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Bank of Japan: Whack-a-Mole open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Why the #BankofJapan just can't normalize policy.
#yen #JPY #Ueda #Japan #trilemma #volatility #Trump #tariffs #normalization #interestrates #yieldcurvecontrol #financialstability #fiscalsustainability
Why the #BankofJapan just can't normalize policy.
#yen #JPY #Ueda #Japan #trilemma #volatility #Trump #tariffs #normalization #interestrates #yieldcurvecontrol #financialstability #fiscalsustainability
Bank of Japan: Whack-a-Mole
The trilemma strikes back
open.substack.com
July 12, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Bank of Japan: Whack-a-Mole open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Why the #BankofJapan just can't normalize policy.
#yen #JPY #Ueda #Japan #trilemma #volatility #Trump #tariffs #normalization #interestrates #yieldcurvecontrol #financialstability #fiscalsustainability
Why the #BankofJapan just can't normalize policy.
#yen #JPY #Ueda #Japan #trilemma #volatility #Trump #tariffs #normalization #interestrates #yieldcurvecontrol #financialstability #fiscalsustainability
My Thin Ice Macroeconomics #blog on #Substack has been growing nicely.
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics
July 10, 2025 at 8:56 AM
My Thin Ice Macroeconomics #blog on #Substack has been growing nicely.
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics