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The Tennis Guy
@tennisguywrites.bsky.social
Thoughts and stats about tennis

I sometimes write about tennis: thetennisguy.substack.com
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“Jack Draper Is Here To Stay”

Draper dropped a single set while defeating 4 top 15 opponents in route to his first Masters title

He’s 30-8 (79%) since the ‘24 Cincinnati Open

He’s the 4th youngest Masters champ of the 2020’s

He’s here to stay

open.substack.com/pub/thetenni...
Jack Draper Is Here To Stay
Jack Draper's Indian Wells domination wasn't a fluke, he's here to stay
open.substack.com
This is the first year since 2008 that Roland Garros and Wimbledon will feature the same 2 men in each final.

2008: Federer and Nadal
2025: Alcaraz and Sinner
July 11, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Men’s players that have won 80% or more of their Grand Slam matches in the 21st century:

Djokovic: 88%
Nadal: 88%
Federer: 86%
ALCARAZ: 86%
Agassi: 81%
Sampras: 81%
SINNER: 80%

Alcaraz (22) and Sinner (23) have already joined quite the exclusive club.
June 9, 2025 at 3:58 PM
What heart from Carlos.

What heart and heartbreak for Jannik.

Their first ever major championship meeting will go down as one of the greatest tennis matches ever.

To think this rivalry is just getting started, can’t possibly ask for more as tennis fans.
Carlos Alcaraz wins 4-6, 6⁴-7⁷, 6-4, 7⁷-6³, 7¹⁰-6² against Jannik Sinner

The best win of his entire career, the first 2 set comeback of his entire career. MORE Grand Slam Finals between them please and thank you

📸 Thibault Camus/AP Photo
June 8, 2025 at 7:05 PM
One of my favorite stats just got an update:

Sinner’s combined record vs Djokovic, Medvedev, and Zverev through ‘23 US Open: 1-13

Sinner’s combined record vs those same 3 players since ‘23 US Open: 14-2
June 6, 2025 at 9:10 PM
The current tiers of men’s tennis:

Tier 1: Alcaraz and Sinner

Tier 2: A geriatric, semi-retired Novak Djokovic

Tier 3: A literal ocean of emptiness

Tier 4: Everyone else
June 4, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Felt like a statement win from Alcaraz today. His level in the 2nd set was truly extraordinary.

He’s now won 4 straight matches versus Sinner.

He’ll head to Paris 15-1 (94%) on the European clay this year.

He remains the man to beat in Paris later this month.
May 18, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Sinner’s 26 match winning streak will meet Alcaraz’s tour best 14-1 record on European clay for the Rome title on Sunday.

Alcaraz leads their H2H 6-4, including 3 straight victories. They are split 1-1 on clay.

Our first ever Sinner v Alcaraz Masters final. Should be a blast.
Jannik Sinner gets it done 1-6, 6-0, 6-3 against Tommy Paul

Was a bizzare match to say the least, but in the end, we get Alcaraz vs Sinner in a Big Final for the very first time. Jannik into the Final here for the first time as well.

📸 Andrew Medichini/AP Photo
May 16, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Jannik Sinner extends his winning streak to 25 matches

Within those 25 matches he is 11-0 against top 10 opponents.

Our first ever Sinner v Alcaraz Masters final looms larger than ever.
May 15, 2025 at 6:27 PM
What an absolute insane level from Jannik Sinner to start this QF match vs Ruud

Ruud has scored just a singular point in 3 games while serving in 2/3 of the games played!
May 15, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Alcaraz is now 13-1 (93%) on European clay this season.

13 wins is the most wins he’s ever had in a single season on European clay heading into Paris.

Within those 13 wins he’s posted a 7-1 record against top 25 ranked foes.

Still the man to beat on clay.
Carlos Alcaraz wins 6-4, 6-4 against Jack Draper

Gets revenge for Indian Wells and secures the 2nd seed at Roland Garros.

📸 Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour
May 14, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Dating back to the 2024 US Open, Jannik Sinner is now 34-1 in his last 35 tour level matches.

His sets won vs sets lost ratio in his last 35 matches: 83 sets won, 9 sets lost.

He’s currently on a 23 match winning streak. He’s lost just 3 total sets in that run.
May 12, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Reposted by The Tennis Guy
Updated ATP Ranking and Race:

Will be a 46th week at World #1 for Sinner, as Zverev returns to World #2 after just 1 week. Rune is back in the Top 10 while Ruud falls out.

Rune and Shelton back in the Race Top 8.
April 20, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Reminder: Carlos is a tour best 21-2 (91%) in his last 23 matches on clay.

Assuming Carlos Alcaraz’s injury isn’t serious, I see little room for concern moving forward.
April 20, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Holger Rune gets his first tour level title since Munich in 2023

He has won 4 straight matches versus top 10 opponents without dropping a set (8-0)

The tour only gets better with Holger in contention
Holger Rune wins 7⁸-6⁶, 6-2 against Carlos Alcaraz to win Barcelona.

What a win, gets past the best clay court player currently on Tour in a Final of an event he's won twice. Hopefully the injury Alcaraz sustained isn't serious and he's ready to go for Madrid.

📸 National Bank Open
April 20, 2025 at 4:10 PM
2025 Monte Carlo draw thoughts:

Zverev’s quarter is BRUTAL. It includes:

Berrettini
Musetti
Rune
Tsitsipas

And to top it off, Djokovic is in the competing quarter.

Alcaraz has to be licking his chops. Highest seeds on his half:

Ruud
Draper
Rublev
April 4, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Big win for Fritz. This run in Miami has been HUGE for him. Lost in the R64 here last year, so he’s picking up serious points.

He can use the points as he’s defending a lot this summer. His ‘24 summer results:👇

MC: R64
Munich: F
Madrid: QF
Rome: QF
RG: R4
Queens: QF
Eastbourne: Champ
Wimbledon: QF
Taylor Fritz FINDS A WAY 7-5, 6-7, 7-5 against Matteo Berrettini

He held 6 match points in the 2nd set, and well over 1 hour later, he closes it out in 3. Broke serve at 5-5 in the 3rd and then holds from 15-30 down to close it out.

📸 Thierry Breton/Panoramic
March 28, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Jack Draper’s loss means no man has won the Sunshine Double in 7 seasons and counting.

This is the longest drought on the men’s side since the inception of Master’s events in 1990.

Roger Federer was last to do it in 2017.
WOW!

Indian Wells champion Jack Draper is OUT in Miami R2.

Fantastic performance and win for the hugely talented Jabuk Mensik: 7-6(2), 7-6(3).
March 23, 2025 at 12:54 AM
To expand on this, Rublev has lost his opening round match at 5 of the 8 tournaments he’s played this year.

He’s lost opening round of the 3 biggest tournaments of the year so far - AO, IW, and Miami.
Zizou Bergs takes down Andrey Rublev 7-5, 6-4 in Miami.

Rublev hasn't won a match since the Doha title.

📸 Reuters
March 23, 2025 at 12:44 AM
I always feel a touch awkward replugging my own work, but if anyone is interested in this subject I did a deep dive on the average age of first time champs at the link below.

I compare men’s ages versus women’s, how the average age has changed over time, etc

open.substack.com/pub/thetenni...
March 21, 2025 at 5:53 PM
New blog post!

“Jack Draper Is Here To Stay”

Draper dropped a single set while defeating 4 top 15 opponents in route to his first Masters title

He’s 30-8 (79%) since the ‘24 Cincinnati Open

He’s the 4th youngest Masters champ of the 2020’s

He’s here to stay

open.substack.com/pub/thetenni...
Jack Draper Is Here To Stay
Jack Draper's Indian Wells domination wasn't a fluke, he's here to stay
open.substack.com
March 19, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Jack Draper drops just a single set this week en route to his first Masters title (beat 3 top 15 opponents)

He’s now 20-3 (87%) in his last 23 tour level matches.

He will be #7 when the rankings drop tomorrow. Get used to seeing his name in the top 10, something tells me he’s gonna be there awhile
Jack Draper gets past Holger Rune 6-2, 6-2 to get the first Masters 1000 Title of his young career.

📸 Tristian Lapierre/Tennis Majors
March 16, 2025 at 10:53 PM
What a coming out party for Jack Draper this week.

He is now 19-3 (86%) in his last 22 matches!

He will make his debut in the top 10 on Monday.

He enters tomorrow’s final having lost just a single set at Indian Wells this week.

Either he or Holger Rune is winning a MASSIVE title tomorrow.
March 16, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Jack Draper is now 17-3 (85%) in his last 20 matches on tour.

He’s yet to drop a set at Indian Wells this week & knocking on the door of his debut in the top 10. #12 in live rankings.

Taylor Fritz is now 6-4 in his last 10 matches. It’s early, but not a banner start to 2025 for Fritz.
Jack Draper puts in a great performance to win 7-5, 6-4 against Taylor Fritz

Fritz always dangerous here, is a former champion, but not winning it this year.

📸 Tristian Lapierre/Tennis Majors
March 13, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Holger Rune is in to his 2nd consecutive Indian Wells QFs

Holger now has back to back top 20 wins this week in the desert

He’ll face Griekspoor for a spot in the SF’s. Griekspoor owns a 2-0 H2H record w/ both previous matches coming on clay interestingly enough

Should be a fun first QF
Holger Rune ends Stefanos Tsitsipas's win streak after he won Dubai and 2 matches here. Gets it done 6-4, 6-4 to return to the Indian Wells Quarterfinals.

📸 Vincent Thian/AP Photo
March 11, 2025 at 10:45 PM
I know it’s early, but here’s Tsitsipas’s 2025 so far:

2-3 start to year. This includes:
-R1 loss at Australian Open
-Didn’t face an opponent ranked inside of the top 40

*Makes a racquet change*

7-0 record since. This includes:
-1st 500 level title
-5-0 against top 40 opponents
March 9, 2025 at 9:43 PM