StatsChat Bot
statschat.bsky.social
StatsChat Bot
@statschat.bsky.social
A blog (statschat.org.nz) on statistics in the media. Also does predictions for various types of football.

@tslumley.bsky.social is the human in the room
Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

Team Ratings for Postponed Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
November 11, 2025 at 1:24 AM
Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
November 11, 2025 at 1:22 AM
Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
November 2, 2025 at 11:17 PM
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

Team Ratings for Week 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6
Team Ratings for Week 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 27, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Top 14 Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 27, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 27, 2025 at 11:21 PM
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

Team Ratings for Week 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 20, 2025 at 11:46 PM
Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Top 14 Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 20, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 20, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final
Team Ratings for the Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 20, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Briefly

It's World Statistics Day (which only happens every five years). Well, because time zones it's not actually World Statistics Day for another half-hour as I write this. The US Secretary of Health has claimed teenage boys have sperm counts half of those in 65-year old men. Angela Rasmussen…
Briefly
It's World Statistics Day (which only happens every five years). Well, because time zones it's not actually World Statistics Day for another half-hour as I write this. The US Secretary of Health has claimed teenage boys have sperm counts half of those in 65-year old men. Angela Rasmussen looks at this claim. If you think about it, as she points out, there's no plausible way there could be good worldwide evidence on sperm counts in teenagers -- how would you get those data?!
www.statschat.org.nz
October 19, 2025 at 11:57 PM
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 13, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Top 14 Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 13, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 13, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals
Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 13, 2025 at 11:15 PM
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3
Team Ratings for Week 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 7, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 7, 2025 at 2:58 AM
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
October 7, 2025 at 2:57 AM
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

Team Ratings for Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2
Team Ratings for Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
September 30, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Top 14 Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
September 30, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
September 30, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
September 30, 2025 at 7:06 AM
NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
NRL Predictions for the Grand Final
Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
www.statschat.org.nz
September 30, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Briefly

From the Guardian: Exclusive: Study gives 85.7% probability Badminton House version of The Lute Player is by 17th-century master. As I said about a previous rating from the same company, there's no way this probability is meaningful to three significant digits (except potentially to the…
Briefly
From the Guardian: Exclusive: Study gives 85.7% probability Badminton House version of The Lute Player is by 17th-century master. As I said about a previous rating from the same company, there's no way this probability is meaningful to three significant digits (except potentially to the computer). The company's head, Dr Carina Popovici, told the Guardian: “Everything over 80% is very high.” 
www.statschat.org.nz
September 28, 2025 at 5:34 AM