Spyglass
@spyglass.org
The feed for spyglass.org by @mgsiegler.com
As 'World Models' gather steam and buzz, a battle brewing with Large Language Models... [⭕️🔒]
LLMs vs. the World (Models)
A key schism in AI heading into 2026...
spyglass.org
November 17, 2025 at 8:02 PM
As 'World Models' gather steam and buzz, a battle brewing with Large Language Models... [⭕️🔒]
There's risk in Apple shifting to a "premium" fall and a "regular" spring iPhone release schedule...
Apple's First-Look Fall & Secondary Spring
There are real risks in Apple's would-be new iPhone launch strategy...
spyglass.org
November 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
There's risk in Apple shifting to a "premium" fall and a "regular" spring iPhone release schedule...
This is also perhaps a unique moment in time for Tim Cook to step down as Apple CEO, if he wanted to...
Let Tim Cook
Might Tim Cook retire as CEO of Apple in early 2026? There are signs...
spyglass.org
November 16, 2025 at 3:58 PM
This is also perhaps a unique moment in time for Tim Cook to step down as Apple CEO, if he wanted to...
ChatGPT is already a chat app. One with nearly a billion users. Can they get those people talk to *each other* as well as to AI?
Group ChatGPT
OpenAI has a shot at layering social on top of their AI...
spyglass.org
November 15, 2025 at 2:33 PM
ChatGPT is already a chat app. One with nearly a billion users. Can they get those people talk to *each other* as well as to AI?
🔭Spyglass Signal
📆 November 14, 2025
• Apple's Mini App Cut
• Battle for Warner Bros
• Tesla + CarPlay
• The AI Bubble
• Thinking Machines at $50B
• Bundling MLS into Apple TV
• Michael Burry's Bubble Bet
• 'Toy Story 5' Goes After the iPad
📆 November 14, 2025
• Apple's Mini App Cut
• Battle for Warner Bros
• Tesla + CarPlay
• The AI Bubble
• Thinking Machines at $50B
• Bundling MLS into Apple TV
• Michael Burry's Bubble Bet
• 'Toy Story 5' Goes After the iPad
Signal: Bubble Watch 📧
Apple's Mini App Cut • Battle for Warner Bros • Tesla + CarPlay • The AI Bubble • Thinking Machines at $50B • Apple Bundling MLS into Apple TV • Michael Burry's Bubble Bet • 'Toy Story 5' Goes After t...
spyglass.org
November 14, 2025 at 8:07 PM
🔭Spyglass Signal
📆 November 14, 2025
• Apple's Mini App Cut
• Battle for Warner Bros
• Tesla + CarPlay
• The AI Bubble
• Thinking Machines at $50B
• Bundling MLS into Apple TV
• Michael Burry's Bubble Bet
• 'Toy Story 5' Goes After the iPad
📆 November 14, 2025
• Apple's Mini App Cut
• Battle for Warner Bros
• Tesla + CarPlay
• The AI Bubble
• Thinking Machines at $50B
• Bundling MLS into Apple TV
• Michael Burry's Bubble Bet
• 'Toy Story 5' Goes After the iPad
Satya Nadella's agentic dreams: a world where we've shifted from software that you use on your computer to software that your computer uses for you... [⭕️🔒]
Why Microsoft Pushed OpenAI Aside
Satya Nadella's vision for the future of computing makes it pretty clear that they feel the need to fully control their own AI destiny
spyglass.org
November 13, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Satya Nadella's agentic dreams: a world where we've shifted from software that you use on your computer to software that your computer uses for you... [⭕️🔒]
It seems like a problem to have a Chief Scientist who doesn't believe in the path you're now taking towards AI. Unless you have an extra Chief Scientist to spare! [⭕️🔒]
Meta AI vs. the World (Models)
The writing was on the (Facebook) wall for Yann LeCun; now can he run an end run around Zuck to AGI?
spyglass.org
November 12, 2025 at 11:20 PM
It seems like a problem to have a Chief Scientist who doesn't believe in the path you're now taking towards AI. Unless you have an extra Chief Scientist to spare! [⭕️🔒]
I think the most interesting aspect of this product is actually the continuing trend of turning the iPhone into a wearable.
The Wearable iPhone
The 'iPhone Pocket' continues a trend...
spyglass.org
November 12, 2025 at 11:52 AM
I think the most interesting aspect of this product is actually the continuing trend of turning the iPhone into a wearable.
Anthropic goes for profit as OpenAI goes for broke... [⭕️🔒]
Two AI Roads Diverged...
Anthropic goes for profit as OpenAI goes for broke
spyglass.org
November 11, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Anthropic goes for profit as OpenAI goes for broke... [⭕️🔒]
With the iPhone Air (predictably) failing to take flight, Apple seemingly shifts strategy for the iPhone Air 2...
The iPhone Error
Yet another "other" iPhone model that fails to resonate...
spyglass.org
November 11, 2025 at 1:04 PM
With the iPhone Air (predictably) failing to take flight, Apple seemingly shifts strategy for the iPhone Air 2...
This time is different because the AI build-out is so clearly a bubble – with many trying to leverage it. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing (but may be anyway). 🫧
"Hey, There's a Bubble."
Yes, it's a bubble. Yes, that may be a good thing. Yes, it will hurt.
spyglass.org
November 10, 2025 at 5:58 PM
This time is different because the AI build-out is so clearly a bubble – with many trying to leverage it. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing (but may be anyway). 🫧
They will be essentially asking investors in any IPO to buy into the belief that OpenAI will grow into the biggest company of all time in relative short order.
IPOpenAI
What might an OpenAI IPO look like? Can the market hold to get them there? What if it doesn't? Backstops? Government guaranteed loans?
spyglass.org
November 9, 2025 at 9:24 AM
They will be essentially asking investors in any IPO to buy into the belief that OpenAI will grow into the biggest company of all time in relative short order.
It's nuanced and vague, but there are probably going to be new and interesting ways people learn to use AI when it operates in an always-on and extremely fast way with privacy as a key feature.
OpenAI's Local AI Device Dreams
What if their would-be AI device doesn't require a connection...
spyglass.org
November 7, 2025 at 2:21 PM
It's nuanced and vague, but there are probably going to be new and interesting ways people learn to use AI when it operates in an always-on and extremely fast way with privacy as a key feature.
Apple swaps Google billions for Gemini trillions (of parameters)
Apple Finally Agrees to Fix Siri
They'll swap Google billions for Gemini trillions (of parameters)...
spyglass.org
November 6, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Apple swaps Google billions for Gemini trillions (of parameters)
I'm not sure it's a win/win but it's a win/less-loss. It's an Epic-was-going-to-win-so-they-take-less-of-a-win-to-expand-the-scope-of-the-win, win.
Google's Epic Play Store Trade Puts More Pressure on Apple
Is 80/20 (86/14 or 91/9) the new 70/30 (85/15)?
spyglass.org
November 5, 2025 at 9:41 PM
I'm not sure it's a win/win but it's a win/less-loss. It's an Epic-was-going-to-win-so-they-take-less-of-a-win-to-expand-the-scope-of-the-win, win.
All of this points to a world in which the web is less open and more about which players have the right business development deals in place for the user.
AI is Breaking the Browser's Back
And it may fragment web usage across different tools depending on BD deals in place...
spyglass.org
November 5, 2025 at 4:35 PM
All of this points to a world in which the web is less open and more about which players have the right business development deals in place for the user.
While a $499 MacBook is undoubtedly a bridge too far (and cheap), a $799 one sounds about right...
How Low Will Apple Go?
With regard to the price of a lower-cost MacBook...
spyglass.org
November 5, 2025 at 10:42 AM
While a $499 MacBook is undoubtedly a bridge too far (and cheap), a $799 one sounds about right...
Microsoft didn't actually lose any of their money due to OpenAI's losses just as Google and Amazon didn't make any actual money due to Anthropic's mark up in valuation...
Buyer Beware Big Tech Gains (and Losses) Boosted By Big AI
On paper gains from valuation markups and paper losses from burn...
spyglass.org
November 1, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Microsoft didn't actually lose any of their money due to OpenAI's losses just as Google and Amazon didn't make any actual money due to Anthropic's mark up in valuation...
As Apple's Services business surges past a $100B business, it's now bigger than all but maybe 40 companies in the Fortune 500...
Apple Services Guns for the iPhone Business
Already a Fortune 50-sized business, it just keeps going, and going...
spyglass.org
October 31, 2025 at 3:51 PM
As Apple's Services business surges past a $100B business, it's now bigger than all but maybe 40 companies in the Fortune 500...
For now, we welcome Microsoft as the newest Big Tech player with an *official* massive equity stake owner in Big AI. OpenAI and Microsoft are so back.
OpenAI Gets Their Cake and Microsoft Gets Their Stake
Microsoft signs off on OpenAI's PBC conversion in exchange for some more clear-cut and friendly terms
spyglass.org
October 28, 2025 at 9:56 PM
For now, we welcome Microsoft as the newest Big Tech player with an *official* massive equity stake owner in Big AI. OpenAI and Microsoft are so back.
Could Apple or Amazon even get their shareholders to swallow a $75B+ media deal in the Age of AI?
Netflix's New Goal May Be to Buy HBO Before HBO Can Be Bought
Big Tech will have a hard time making the case to Wall Street in the Age of AI...
spyglass.org
October 27, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Could Apple or Amazon even get their shareholders to swallow a $75B+ media deal in the Age of AI?
Apple delays the absurdly large and heavy and expensive foldable without an obvious market...
Apple Delays the Silly Big Foldable iPad
Will this device ever see the light of day? Maybe. Next decade.
spyglass.org
October 27, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Apple delays the absurdly large and heavy and expensive foldable without an obvious market...
It's starting to feel like Xbox is dead, and Microsoft's pricey gaming buys were huge blunders...
Microsoft's Halo Mary
It's starting to feel like Xbox is dead, and Microsoft's pricey gaming buys were huge blunders...
spyglass.org
October 25, 2025 at 8:14 PM
It's starting to feel like Xbox is dead, and Microsoft's pricey gaming buys were huge blunders...
One has to wonder what Amazon thinks of this deal. But even more so than that, one has to wonder what NVIDIA thinks of this deal...
Anthropic's Big Tech Strategy Deepens...
And by going deeper with Google, do they risk stepping on NVIDIA's and Amazon's toes?
spyglass.org
October 24, 2025 at 8:34 PM
One has to wonder what Amazon thinks of this deal. But even more so than that, one has to wonder what NVIDIA thinks of this deal...
A Steven Soderbergh-helmed Star Wars, that Disney killed...
Disney Killed Kylo Ren, Again
'The Hunt for Ben Solo' starring Adam Driver with um, Steven Soderbergh directing and Disney said "no"?!
spyglass.org
October 24, 2025 at 8:16 PM
A Steven Soderbergh-helmed Star Wars, that Disney killed...