Sub-Prime Goals
@spgoals7.bsky.social
Football fan writing on finance in football/sport. Have worked in banking, venture capital and most recently as a CFO.
Substack: https://spgoals.substack.com
Substack: https://spgoals.substack.com
Pinned
Sub-Prime Goals
@spgoals7.bsky.social
· Nov 17
📈📉Does football and the #EPL have a growth problem? 🧵
- Broadcasting growth has slumped, “Netflix of football” can transform economics for EPL and fans long term.
- Without a “Netflix of football”, new commercial deal structures will be required.
- Matchday revs, the next driver of growth.
- Broadcasting growth has slumped, “Netflix of football” can transform economics for EPL and fans long term.
- Without a “Netflix of football”, new commercial deal structures will be required.
- Matchday revs, the next driver of growth.
Had some #AVFC fans ask me r.e. squad cost position. Updated my model post Deloitte and I have them just inside the limits. Very tight c.£10mn margin on my numbers. Whisper it quietly but Villa have the 10th largest total wage bill in global football.
January 23, 2026 at 12:55 PM
Had some #AVFC fans ask me r.e. squad cost position. Updated my model post Deloitte and I have them just inside the limits. Very tight c.£10mn margin on my numbers. Whisper it quietly but Villa have the 10th largest total wage bill in global football.
#MUFC have the same total wage bill as Arsenal, despite not being in the Champions League. Food for thought.
Villa the next highest (in world football). They have a total wage bill higher than:
Atletico Madrid
Dortmund
Inter Milan
Juventus
AC Milan
Villa the next highest (in world football). They have a total wage bill higher than:
Atletico Madrid
Dortmund
Inter Milan
Juventus
AC Milan
January 22, 2026 at 12:07 PM
#MUFC have the same total wage bill as Arsenal, despite not being in the Champions League. Food for thought.
Villa the next highest (in world football). They have a total wage bill higher than:
Atletico Madrid
Dortmund
Inter Milan
Juventus
AC Milan
Villa the next highest (in world football). They have a total wage bill higher than:
Atletico Madrid
Dortmund
Inter Milan
Juventus
AC Milan
75% of the Premier League is now in the Deloitte Money League i.e. top 30 revenue generators in the world.
The idea that challengers can't compete seems odd to me.
The idea that challengers can't compete seems odd to me.
January 22, 2026 at 11:35 AM
75% of the Premier League is now in the Deloitte Money League i.e. top 30 revenue generators in the world.
The idea that challengers can't compete seems odd to me.
The idea that challengers can't compete seems odd to me.
Women’s Football valuations have rocketed due to growth expectations. The latest Deloitte Women’s Money League showed revenue growth of just 35% for top clubs. The Women’s game should focus on exposure and sponsors to drive growth. Broadcasting money can be a dangerous drug.
bit.ly/4r5oWpW
#WSL
bit.ly/4r5oWpW
#WSL
Is Women's Football worth its growth multiple?
There's lots of opportunity but the latest revenue figures should give execs food for thought on their priorities
bit.ly
January 20, 2026 at 12:25 PM
Women’s Football valuations have rocketed due to growth expectations. The latest Deloitte Women’s Money League showed revenue growth of just 35% for top clubs. The Women’s game should focus on exposure and sponsors to drive growth. Broadcasting money can be a dangerous drug.
bit.ly/4r5oWpW
#WSL
bit.ly/4r5oWpW
#WSL
Brahim Diaz needs to be awarded the peace prize for that penalty 😂
A spectacular end to AFCON unfolding here. And not in a good way. Senegal coach now ordering his team off the pitch. Wow.
January 18, 2026 at 9:16 PM
Brahim Diaz needs to be awarded the peace prize for that penalty 😂
A spectacular end to AFCON unfolding here. And not in a good way. Senegal coach now ordering his team off the pitch. Wow.
January 18, 2026 at 9:04 PM
A spectacular end to AFCON unfolding here. And not in a good way. Senegal coach now ordering his team off the pitch. Wow.
Quiet start to the year with an emergency #MUFC pod…
Emergency pod: Ruben Amorim sacked. With Ed, Dharnish and Jamie.
Audio now, video later
🔊 pod.fo/e/372bbf
Audio now, video later
🔊 pod.fo/e/372bbf
No Question About That: Emergency Pod: Amorim Sacked!
#956 | Ed, Jamie and Dharnish discuss the sudden sacking of Ruben Amorim by Manchester United following his post-match comments after the Leeds game. We analyse the underlying issues that led to Am...
pod.fo
January 5, 2026 at 8:03 PM
Quiet start to the year with an emergency #MUFC pod…
#Napoli likely facing transfer restrictions for breaking Serie A’s 80% squad cost rule target this season. Risk of breaching UEFA’s 70% SCR too. Any new buys have to be funded from player sales first (like UEFA List A rule).
football-italia.net/napoli-risk-...
football-italia.net/napoli-risk-...
Napoli risk transfer ban & Lazio free after Serie A financial review: the situation - Football Italia
Fresh from lifting the Supercoppa Italiana, Napoli could soon be dealing with a transfer-related issue away from the pitch, as reports indicate that Lazio
football-italia.net
January 5, 2026 at 5:31 PM
#Napoli likely facing transfer restrictions for breaking Serie A’s 80% squad cost rule target this season. Risk of breaching UEFA’s 70% SCR too. Any new buys have to be funded from player sales first (like UEFA List A rule).
football-italia.net/napoli-risk-...
football-italia.net/napoli-risk-...
Because there’s nothing else being talked about in the world of #MUFC… immerse yourself in some INEOS financials chat and deals, deals deals deals. Suitable for pre or post war of the roses consumption.
What's going on at Ineos. Downgraded credit rating, debt maturing, vulture capitalists circling. Will it impact United or the path to a full takeover? Ed and Jamie break it down. @spgoals7.bsky.social
📺 buff.ly/oUZH1Y7
🔊 buff.ly/aXjXGmt
📺 buff.ly/oUZH1Y7
🔊 buff.ly/aXjXGmt
January 4, 2026 at 10:59 AM
Because there’s nothing else being talked about in the world of #MUFC… immerse yourself in some INEOS financials chat and deals, deals deals deals. Suitable for pre or post war of the roses consumption.
Reposted by Sub-Prime Goals
Have a listen to @spgoals7.bsky.social ‘s latest on No Question About That…. Apparently our scope to use the credit card is v low after splashing out on the front 3 during the summer. So not sure we can expect much unfortunately
December 17, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Have a listen to @spgoals7.bsky.social ‘s latest on No Question About That…. Apparently our scope to use the credit card is v low after splashing out on the front 3 during the summer. So not sure we can expect much unfortunately
It's Friday then...so learn about #MUFC financial results, what?...I'll get my coat...we cover
- Why revenue dipped by only a few million despite no Europe and some sponsorship losses
- Underlying wage bill changes
- Just how much did the debt move by and how much was new news? (spoiler, none of it)
- Why revenue dipped by only a few million despite no Europe and some sponsorship losses
- Underlying wage bill changes
- Just how much did the debt move by and how much was new news? (spoiler, none of it)
United's Q1 financials are out. Revenues are stable, costs are down, but debt is up to eye watering levels. We break it all down. @spgoals7.bsky.social
📺 buff.ly/tehEpCQ
🔊 buff.ly/Sue2qbh
📺 buff.ly/tehEpCQ
🔊 buff.ly/Sue2qbh
December 12, 2025 at 9:44 AM
It's Friday then...so learn about #MUFC financial results, what?...I'll get my coat...we cover
- Why revenue dipped by only a few million despite no Europe and some sponsorship losses
- Underlying wage bill changes
- Just how much did the debt move by and how much was new news? (spoiler, none of it)
- Why revenue dipped by only a few million despite no Europe and some sponsorship losses
- Underlying wage bill changes
- Just how much did the debt move by and how much was new news? (spoiler, none of it)
FIRST TAKE: #MUFC report small improvement in underlying losses for 1Q26
bit.ly/48xKDZh
Rev fell £3mn despite no European football, sponsorship losses more than offset by lower wage costs (Men's player departures). Resulted in £2mn reduction in underlying losses vs. 1Q25.
bit.ly/48xKDZh
Rev fell £3mn despite no European football, sponsorship losses more than offset by lower wage costs (Men's player departures). Resulted in £2mn reduction in underlying losses vs. 1Q25.
FIRST TAKE: Manchester United 1Q26 results show small improvements in underlying operating losses
United showed only small revenue declines despite no European football, which was offset by lower staff costs due to Men's playing and non-playing staff changes
bit.ly
December 11, 2025 at 1:23 PM
FIRST TAKE: #MUFC report small improvement in underlying losses for 1Q26
bit.ly/48xKDZh
Rev fell £3mn despite no European football, sponsorship losses more than offset by lower wage costs (Men's player departures). Resulted in £2mn reduction in underlying losses vs. 1Q25.
bit.ly/48xKDZh
Rev fell £3mn despite no European football, sponsorship losses more than offset by lower wage costs (Men's player departures). Resulted in £2mn reduction in underlying losses vs. 1Q25.
£30mn owed (excl. transfers), expiring contracts and sale options will provide a transfer kitty. So could more sponsorships. Countless footballing reasons for #MUFC to bring forward spend. But any big mistakes will slow down a full recovery. Do INEOS think that’s a gamble worth taking
bit.ly/4pM3cOX
bit.ly/4pM3cOX
United can spend in January, but should they?
United have further savings and incoming funds that provide the means to do business, but it might be the sort of bet that got previous regimes into trouble
bit.ly
December 5, 2025 at 1:01 PM
£30mn owed (excl. transfers), expiring contracts and sale options will provide a transfer kitty. So could more sponsorships. Countless footballing reasons for #MUFC to bring forward spend. But any big mistakes will slow down a full recovery. Do INEOS think that’s a gamble worth taking
bit.ly/4pM3cOX
bit.ly/4pM3cOX
🐺 #Wolves on course for the lowest points total in Premier League history. Their underlying financials?
Ex. Player trading losses are £80-100mn/yr. Cash flow supported by debt and just £25mn of infrastructure investment.
Could #wwfc value drop 85% with relegation?
Subscribe here 👉 bit.ly/4awcs5k
Ex. Player trading losses are £80-100mn/yr. Cash flow supported by debt and just £25mn of infrastructure investment.
Could #wwfc value drop 85% with relegation?
Subscribe here 👉 bit.ly/4awcs5k
Wolves wandering into the wilderness
The midlands side are facing the biggest threat to their Premier League status since their return in 2018. What is their underlying financial situation?
bit.ly
December 2, 2025 at 12:17 PM
🐺 #Wolves on course for the lowest points total in Premier League history. Their underlying financials?
Ex. Player trading losses are £80-100mn/yr. Cash flow supported by debt and just £25mn of infrastructure investment.
Could #wwfc value drop 85% with relegation?
Subscribe here 👉 bit.ly/4awcs5k
Ex. Player trading losses are £80-100mn/yr. Cash flow supported by debt and just £25mn of infrastructure investment.
Could #wwfc value drop 85% with relegation?
Subscribe here 👉 bit.ly/4awcs5k
One for all those who really love tue details on the rules and what they might mean. We cover:
- SCR/ SSR etc etc
- Whether it changes much for #MUFC
- How it might impact rivals.
- SCR/ SSR etc etc
- Whether it changes much for #MUFC
- How it might impact rivals.
New financial rules are here.
What are the implications for United’s rebuild?
We break it all down on the latest United, Inc. @spgoals7.bsky.social
📺 buff.ly/PUUvcOT
🔊 buff.ly/hCSVgoV
What are the implications for United’s rebuild?
We break it all down on the latest United, Inc. @spgoals7.bsky.social
📺 buff.ly/PUUvcOT
🔊 buff.ly/hCSVgoV
November 26, 2025 at 8:28 PM
One for all those who really love tue details on the rules and what they might mean. We cover:
- SCR/ SSR etc etc
- Whether it changes much for #MUFC
- How it might impact rivals.
- SCR/ SSR etc etc
- Whether it changes much for #MUFC
- How it might impact rivals.
A moment of reflection that might be a nice listen in the run up to today’s #MUFC game vs Spurs. We cover:
🏦 True cost of rebuilding United
🧮 Finances and PSR
🤨 Opportunity costs from a year of learning
⏳The next two years
🧱 What foundations Wilcox still needs to tweak
🏦 True cost of rebuilding United
🧮 Finances and PSR
🤨 Opportunity costs from a year of learning
⏳The next two years
🧱 What foundations Wilcox still needs to tweak
💰 Ruben one year on! Jamie and Ed break down the true cost of hiring Rúben Amorim, sacking Ten Hag, and rebuilding a squad under PSR pressure - plus insights from Jason Wilcox’s interview. @spgoals7.bsky.social
🎧 buff.ly/jlpRb2n
📺 buff.ly/eo996Im
🎧 buff.ly/jlpRb2n
📺 buff.ly/eo996Im
November 8, 2025 at 9:23 AM
A moment of reflection that might be a nice listen in the run up to today’s #MUFC game vs Spurs. We cover:
🏦 True cost of rebuilding United
🧮 Finances and PSR
🤨 Opportunity costs from a year of learning
⏳The next two years
🧱 What foundations Wilcox still needs to tweak
🏦 True cost of rebuilding United
🧮 Finances and PSR
🤨 Opportunity costs from a year of learning
⏳The next two years
🧱 What foundations Wilcox still needs to tweak
🔴⚪ #FCBayern are moving up the revenue league 🔴⚪
'24/25 revenue was €978.3mn. But excluding player sales it grew 15% to €877mn.
Winning the Bundesliga and Club World Cup prize money were major drivers alongside merchandise and sponsorships.
EBITDA grew 11% also due to minor wage bill decrease.
'24/25 revenue was €978.3mn. But excluding player sales it grew 15% to €877mn.
Winning the Bundesliga and Club World Cup prize money were major drivers alongside merchandise and sponsorships.
EBITDA grew 11% also due to minor wage bill decrease.
November 3, 2025 at 4:30 PM
🔴⚪ #FCBayern are moving up the revenue league 🔴⚪
'24/25 revenue was €978.3mn. But excluding player sales it grew 15% to €877mn.
Winning the Bundesliga and Club World Cup prize money were major drivers alongside merchandise and sponsorships.
EBITDA grew 11% also due to minor wage bill decrease.
'24/25 revenue was €978.3mn. But excluding player sales it grew 15% to €877mn.
Winning the Bundesliga and Club World Cup prize money were major drivers alongside merchandise and sponsorships.
EBITDA grew 11% also due to minor wage bill decrease.
Going. Going. Gone.
bit.ly/3WUwheZ
#MUFC need 10 players over two years. Squad backbone is 30+ (played 68% of available mins). Up to £500mn gross cost, current cash flows leave them c.£150mn short. No longer forced sellers, but timing sales critical to maintain momentum.
bit.ly/3WUwheZ
#MUFC need 10 players over two years. Squad backbone is 30+ (played 68% of available mins). Up to £500mn gross cost, current cash flows leave them c.£150mn short. No longer forced sellers, but timing sales critical to maintain momentum.
Going. Going. Gone. United’s long rebuild road still has at least another two years to go
Up to 10 players and £500mn+ in gross spend over two years, United’s hierarchy still have a lot of big decisions ahead of them
bit.ly
November 3, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Going. Going. Gone.
bit.ly/3WUwheZ
#MUFC need 10 players over two years. Squad backbone is 30+ (played 68% of available mins). Up to £500mn gross cost, current cash flows leave them c.£150mn short. No longer forced sellers, but timing sales critical to maintain momentum.
bit.ly/3WUwheZ
#MUFC need 10 players over two years. Squad backbone is 30+ (played 68% of available mins). Up to £500mn gross cost, current cash flows leave them c.£150mn short. No longer forced sellers, but timing sales critical to maintain momentum.
#PSG 24/25 revenue of €837mn - probably keeps them Top 3 in the Football Club revenue league.
But that's only €70mn more than #MUFC and has the #UCL win and some CWC money in (c.€60mn+ boost).
Meaning other rev was down, some from Ligue 1 TV money but not spectacular.
www.psg.fr/content/le-p...
But that's only €70mn more than #MUFC and has the #UCL win and some CWC money in (c.€60mn+ boost).
Meaning other rev was down, some from Ligue 1 TV money but not spectacular.
www.psg.fr/content/le-p...
October 29, 2025 at 8:00 PM
#PSG 24/25 revenue of €837mn - probably keeps them Top 3 in the Football Club revenue league.
But that's only €70mn more than #MUFC and has the #UCL win and some CWC money in (c.€60mn+ boost).
Meaning other rev was down, some from Ligue 1 TV money but not spectacular.
www.psg.fr/content/le-p...
But that's only €70mn more than #MUFC and has the #UCL win and some CWC money in (c.€60mn+ boost).
Meaning other rev was down, some from Ligue 1 TV money but not spectacular.
www.psg.fr/content/le-p...
Seat Licenses have now come to football.
Barcelona have fetched €100mn for 475 lifetime paid licenses (€210k avg price) in their renovated VIP seats in the new Camp Nou…#MUFC taking note as they look to finance a new Old Trafford (see alternative options below).
substack.com/@spgoals7/no...
Barcelona have fetched €100mn for 475 lifetime paid licenses (€210k avg price) in their renovated VIP seats in the new Camp Nou…#MUFC taking note as they look to finance a new Old Trafford (see alternative options below).
substack.com/@spgoals7/no...
The blueprint for financing New Old Trafford – unite the Club, Fans and the Community
There is an opportunity for United to again be a sporting pioneer and build long-lasting bridges with its fanbase and the community
substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Seat Licenses have now come to football.
Barcelona have fetched €100mn for 475 lifetime paid licenses (€210k avg price) in their renovated VIP seats in the new Camp Nou…#MUFC taking note as they look to finance a new Old Trafford (see alternative options below).
substack.com/@spgoals7/no...
Barcelona have fetched €100mn for 475 lifetime paid licenses (€210k avg price) in their renovated VIP seats in the new Camp Nou…#MUFC taking note as they look to finance a new Old Trafford (see alternative options below).
substack.com/@spgoals7/no...
Economics of a Footballer, part 1
bit.ly/47hP9sQ
📜 #EPL & #EFL players have the same standard contract.
💰 Top players get a decent deal. For the rest, clubs get the full economic control of a player without paying for it.
📈 Players need to learn their full lifetime potential to mitigate risk.
#PFA
bit.ly/47hP9sQ
📜 #EPL & #EFL players have the same standard contract.
💰 Top players get a decent deal. For the rest, clubs get the full economic control of a player without paying for it.
📈 Players need to learn their full lifetime potential to mitigate risk.
#PFA
Economics of a Footballer, part 1: Clubs control the full economic value of players, but only pay for a fraction of it
All players throughout the pyramid are governed by the same basic contracts, for most that means significant risk
bit.ly
October 20, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Economics of a Footballer, part 1
bit.ly/47hP9sQ
📜 #EPL & #EFL players have the same standard contract.
💰 Top players get a decent deal. For the rest, clubs get the full economic control of a player without paying for it.
📈 Players need to learn their full lifetime potential to mitigate risk.
#PFA
bit.ly/47hP9sQ
📜 #EPL & #EFL players have the same standard contract.
💰 Top players get a decent deal. For the rest, clubs get the full economic control of a player without paying for it.
📈 Players need to learn their full lifetime potential to mitigate risk.
#PFA
Reposted by Sub-Prime Goals
The no question about that podcast is excellent…. Particularly the financial episodes @spgoals7.bsky.social … Subprime goals is your man.
October 14, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The no question about that podcast is excellent…. Particularly the financial episodes @spgoals7.bsky.social … Subprime goals is your man.
A lively pod to fill the void of a week without #MUFC. Ed and I dig into:
💰Actual meaning of potential investor interest
🏟️ Paying for a right to buy a Season Ticket in New Old Trafford
⚽️The academy is all bad…?
✒️Pros and cons of Maguire contract renewal
🏆Latest Champions League win for the Reds
💰Actual meaning of potential investor interest
🏟️ Paying for a right to buy a Season Ticket in New Old Trafford
⚽️The academy is all bad…?
✒️Pros and cons of Maguire contract renewal
🏆Latest Champions League win for the Reds
Rumours swirl, money talks. Ed & Jamie dig into Saudi takeover whispers, Old Trafford financing, ops hires, Maguire’s contract, and United Women’s Champions League. @spgoals7.bsky.social
🎧 buff.ly/Ajwzbr7
📺 buff.ly/tpm99nK
🎧 buff.ly/Ajwzbr7
📺 buff.ly/tpm99nK
October 10, 2025 at 7:11 PM
A lively pod to fill the void of a week without #MUFC. Ed and I dig into:
💰Actual meaning of potential investor interest
🏟️ Paying for a right to buy a Season Ticket in New Old Trafford
⚽️The academy is all bad…?
✒️Pros and cons of Maguire contract renewal
🏆Latest Champions League win for the Reds
💰Actual meaning of potential investor interest
🏟️ Paying for a right to buy a Season Ticket in New Old Trafford
⚽️The academy is all bad…?
✒️Pros and cons of Maguire contract renewal
🏆Latest Champions League win for the Reds
INEOS’ cuts means #MUFC can cover near term transfer debts.
£80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward.
Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning.
If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand.
Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy
£80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward.
Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning.
If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand.
Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy
September 22, 2025 at 6:18 AM
INEOS’ cuts means #MUFC can cover near term transfer debts.
£80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward.
Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning.
If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand.
Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy
£80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward.
Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning.
If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand.
Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy
Initial take on #MUFC finances w/ @nqatpod.bsky.social:
📊Why is rev guidance so high
📈How is profit (EBITDA) growing again next year
🧮United’s financials now fixed?
🤔Implications for Amorim
💰Rev not falling that much, profit growing, Men’s 1st team wage bill cut, where's the rest of the money going?
📊Why is rev guidance so high
📈How is profit (EBITDA) growing again next year
🧮United’s financials now fixed?
🤔Implications for Amorim
💰Rev not falling that much, profit growing, Men’s 1st team wage bill cut, where's the rest of the money going?
New pod: United post record revenue… but scratch the surface and are strong foundations built on sand? Jamie and Ed on the 2025 financials: debt, transfers, sponsorships – and whether Sir Jim’s numbers add up. @spgoals7.bsky.social
🎧 buff.ly/89u1wnV
📺 buff.ly/reJTjU2
🎧 buff.ly/89u1wnV
📺 buff.ly/reJTjU2
September 17, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Initial take on #MUFC finances w/ @nqatpod.bsky.social:
📊Why is rev guidance so high
📈How is profit (EBITDA) growing again next year
🧮United’s financials now fixed?
🤔Implications for Amorim
💰Rev not falling that much, profit growing, Men’s 1st team wage bill cut, where's the rest of the money going?
📊Why is rev guidance so high
📈How is profit (EBITDA) growing again next year
🧮United’s financials now fixed?
🤔Implications for Amorim
💰Rev not falling that much, profit growing, Men’s 1st team wage bill cut, where's the rest of the money going?