Sergei Stepancev
@sergeistepancev.bsky.social
Writing about Russia.
The Russian Opposition Lied to the West — And the West Paid the Price.
Any serious discussion of Russia’s future must begin with a premise many exile groups still resist:
Russia is unlikely to democratize through internal social momentum alone.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Any serious discussion of Russia’s future must begin with a premise many exile groups still resist:
Russia is unlikely to democratize through internal social momentum alone.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Russian Opposition Lied to the West — And the West Paid the Price
How exile activists sold comforting myths about Russia while the system stayed intact.
open.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 6:06 AM
The Russian Opposition Lied to the West — And the West Paid the Price.
Any serious discussion of Russia’s future must begin with a premise many exile groups still resist:
Russia is unlikely to democratize through internal social momentum alone.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Any serious discussion of Russia’s future must begin with a premise many exile groups still resist:
Russia is unlikely to democratize through internal social momentum alone.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Beast That Has Tasted Blood.
..this metaphor turns out to describe not Lenin alone, but Russia itself as a historical political creature.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@washingtonpost.com
..this metaphor turns out to describe not Lenin alone, but Russia itself as a historical political creature.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@washingtonpost.com
The Beast That Has Tasted Blood
Why Russia Has Always Fed on the Peoples Around It — and Why It Will Do So Again Unless It Is Stopped.
open.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 1:39 PM
The Beast That Has Tasted Blood.
..this metaphor turns out to describe not Lenin alone, but Russia itself as a historical political creature.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@washingtonpost.com
..this metaphor turns out to describe not Lenin alone, but Russia itself as a historical political creature.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@washingtonpost.com
You Don’t Offer Peace to Russia — You Impose It.
The cards are not Ukraine’s to hold — they belong to the United States.
@wsj.com
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The cards are not Ukraine’s to hold — they belong to the United States.
@wsj.com
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
You Don’t Offer Peace to Russia — You Impose It
Why Pressuring Ukraine, Attacking Europe, and Courting the Kremlin Is a Strategic Dead End.
open.substack.com
December 13, 2025 at 8:40 AM
You Don’t Offer Peace to Russia — You Impose It.
The cards are not Ukraine’s to hold — they belong to the United States.
@wsj.com
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The cards are not Ukraine’s to hold — they belong to the United States.
@wsj.com
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
America’s Strategic Horizon.
History will judge America not by whether the war stops, but by what the world looks like after it does.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
History will judge America not by whether the war stops, but by what the world looks like after it does.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
America’s Strategic Horizon
The world will not be safer when the war ends — only when Russia becomes unable to start another.
open.substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:39 AM
America’s Strategic Horizon.
History will judge America not by whether the war stops, but by what the world looks like after it does.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
History will judge America not by whether the war stops, but by what the world looks like after it does.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
There Are No Deals With the KGB.
The West thinks in transactions; Russia thinks in vectors.
The West counts quarters; Russia counts decades.
The West seeks profit; Russia seeks possession.
@theatlantic.com
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The West thinks in transactions; Russia thinks in vectors.
The West counts quarters; Russia counts decades.
The West seeks profit; Russia seeks possession.
@theatlantic.com
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
There Are No Deals With the KGB
Why America Keeps Misunderstanding the Russian Intelligence Mind — and Why It Will Happen Again.
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 10:22 AM
There Are No Deals With the KGB.
The West thinks in transactions; Russia thinks in vectors.
The West counts quarters; Russia counts decades.
The West seeks profit; Russia seeks possession.
@theatlantic.com
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The West thinks in transactions; Russia thinks in vectors.
The West counts quarters; Russia counts decades.
The West seeks profit; Russia seeks possession.
@theatlantic.com
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
America Looked in the Mirror — Russia Looked at the World.
While America argued about who uses which bathroom,
Russia fought for the political future of Europe, Africa, and which American insiders could be cultivated.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@lincolnproject.us @gtconway.bsky.social
While America argued about who uses which bathroom,
Russia fought for the political future of Europe, Africa, and which American insiders could be cultivated.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@lincolnproject.us @gtconway.bsky.social
America Looked in the Mirror — Russia Looked at the World
How the United States spent two decades fighting itself while Moscow quietly rebuilt power, influence, and reach.
open.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 5:00 AM
America Looked in the Mirror — Russia Looked at the World.
While America argued about who uses which bathroom,
Russia fought for the political future of Europe, Africa, and which American insiders could be cultivated.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@lincolnproject.us @gtconway.bsky.social
While America argued about who uses which bathroom,
Russia fought for the political future of Europe, Africa, and which American insiders could be cultivated.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@lincolnproject.us @gtconway.bsky.social
Why MAGA Is Helping the Kremlin — The Paradox of American Isolationism and the Fragmentation of Europe.
Should the United States allow Russia and China to divide Europe — simply because it pleases the MAGA electorate?
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Should the United States allow Russia and China to divide Europe — simply because it pleases the MAGA electorate?
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Why MAGA Is Helping the Kremlin — The Paradox of American Isolationism and the Fragmentation of Europe
What the U.S. risks by abandoning the post-WWII world order it built.
open.substack.com
December 7, 2025 at 6:28 AM
Why MAGA Is Helping the Kremlin — The Paradox of American Isolationism and the Fragmentation of Europe.
Should the United States allow Russia and China to divide Europe — simply because it pleases the MAGA electorate?
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Should the United States allow Russia and China to divide Europe — simply because it pleases the MAGA electorate?
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
THE AMERICA THAT FELL ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL.
If the United States remembers why it leads, the twenty-first century can still be democratic.
American society forgot that its country is not simply another nation among many, but the keystone of the international order.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
If the United States remembers why it leads, the twenty-first century can still be democratic.
American society forgot that its country is not simply another nation among many, but the keystone of the international order.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
THE AMERICA THAT FELL ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL
How the Loss of McCain, the Dismissal of Romney, and the Caution of Biden Led to a World That No Longer Knows What America Is For.
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 7:17 AM
THE AMERICA THAT FELL ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL.
If the United States remembers why it leads, the twenty-first century can still be democratic.
American society forgot that its country is not simply another nation among many, but the keystone of the international order.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
If the United States remembers why it leads, the twenty-first century can still be democratic.
American society forgot that its country is not simply another nation among many, but the keystone of the international order.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Age of the Bold and the Weak.
If the free world does not recover courage, discipline, and strategic clarity, the future will not be shaped by democracies — but by predators.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@wsj.com
If the free world does not recover courage, discipline, and strategic clarity, the future will not be shaped by democracies — but by predators.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@wsj.com
The Age of the Bold and the Weak
How the Free World Lost Its Nerve — and Why the Rogues Took the Initiative.
open.substack.com
December 5, 2025 at 6:17 AM
The Age of the Bold and the Weak.
If the free world does not recover courage, discipline, and strategic clarity, the future will not be shaped by democracies — but by predators.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@wsj.com
If the free world does not recover courage, discipline, and strategic clarity, the future will not be shaped by democracies — but by predators.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@wsj.com
Trading With Moscow Won’t Buy Peace.
Trade with Russia is only viable if it is part of a long-term strategic plan to penetrate Russian elites, dismantle their imperial doctrine, and reorient the country toward a post-imperial future. open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Trade with Russia is only viable if it is part of a long-term strategic plan to penetrate Russian elites, dismantle their imperial doctrine, and reorient the country toward a post-imperial future. open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Trading With Moscow Won’t Buy Peace
Profits only empower those who value conquest above prosperity.
open.substack.com
December 4, 2025 at 4:18 AM
Trading With Moscow Won’t Buy Peace.
Trade with Russia is only viable if it is part of a long-term strategic plan to penetrate Russian elites, dismantle their imperial doctrine, and reorient the country toward a post-imperial future. open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Trade with Russia is only viable if it is part of a long-term strategic plan to penetrate Russian elites, dismantle their imperial doctrine, and reorient the country toward a post-imperial future. open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Peace That Never Was — And Why It’s Good It Didn’t Happen.
You cannot negotiate real peace with this regime. You cannot coexist with it safely.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@washingtonpost.com
You cannot negotiate real peace with this regime. You cannot coexist with it safely.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@washingtonpost.com
The Peace That Never Was — And Why It’s Good It Didn’t Happen
Any deal made in such conditions could only have meant Ukraine’s surrender. Real peace with Putin is impossible — it can only be imposed, never agreed.
open.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:14 AM
The Peace That Never Was — And Why It’s Good It Didn’t Happen.
You cannot negotiate real peace with this regime. You cannot coexist with it safely.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@washingtonpost.com
You cannot negotiate real peace with this regime. You cannot coexist with it safely.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@washingtonpost.com
Is Washington Letting Putin Think He’s Winning?
The question is whether the United States is finally ready to play by the same rules. And if it is, then for the first time in many years, there might be a reason for cautious optimism.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@theatlantic.com
The question is whether the United States is finally ready to play by the same rules. And if it is, then for the first time in many years, there might be a reason for cautious optimism.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@theatlantic.com
Is Washington Letting Putin Think He’s Winning?
Why the U.S. might be pretending to play along — not to appease Moscow, but to get inside Putin’s system and reshape Russia from within.
open.substack.com
November 30, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Is Washington Letting Putin Think He’s Winning?
The question is whether the United States is finally ready to play by the same rules. And if it is, then for the first time in many years, there might be a reason for cautious optimism.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@theatlantic.com
The question is whether the United States is finally ready to play by the same rules. And if it is, then for the first time in many years, there might be a reason for cautious optimism.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@theatlantic.com
America’s Strategic Blind Spot.
The U.S. wants peace in Ukraine more than Ukrainians do. That should worry everyone.
Why Is America Protecting the Very Regime It Should Be Undermining?
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@theatlantic.com @postopinions.bsky.social @lincolnproject.us @nytimes.com
The U.S. wants peace in Ukraine more than Ukrainians do. That should worry everyone.
Why Is America Protecting the Very Regime It Should Be Undermining?
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@theatlantic.com @postopinions.bsky.social @lincolnproject.us @nytimes.com
America’s Strategic Blind Spot
Why a Weak Russia Is Safer for the World — and Why Washington Still Refuses to See It.
open.substack.com
November 28, 2025 at 6:29 AM
America’s Strategic Blind Spot.
The U.S. wants peace in Ukraine more than Ukrainians do. That should worry everyone.
Why Is America Protecting the Very Regime It Should Be Undermining?
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@theatlantic.com @postopinions.bsky.social @lincolnproject.us @nytimes.com
The U.S. wants peace in Ukraine more than Ukrainians do. That should worry everyone.
Why Is America Protecting the Very Regime It Should Be Undermining?
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
@theatlantic.com @postopinions.bsky.social @lincolnproject.us @nytimes.com
A Holiday for the Kremlin.
Putin appreciates only one category of Americans:
those who do not understand that they are speaking not to “Russian partners,” but to trained influence operators.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Putin appreciates only one category of Americans:
those who do not understand that they are speaking not to “Russian partners,” but to trained influence operators.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
A Holiday for the Kremlin
How the Kremlin exploits the rise of amateurs in Washington.
open.substack.com
November 26, 2025 at 7:13 AM
A Holiday for the Kremlin.
Putin appreciates only one category of Americans:
those who do not understand that they are speaking not to “Russian partners,” but to trained influence operators.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Putin appreciates only one category of Americans:
those who do not understand that they are speaking not to “Russian partners,” but to trained influence operators.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Why Some Americans Still Believe Russia Can Be a Friend
Putin needs America far more as an enemy than the US could ever need Russia as a partner.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Putin needs America far more as an enemy than the US could ever need Russia as a partner.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Why Some Americans Still Believe Russia Can Be a Friend
A reflection on the roots of a dangerous American illusion — and why the Kremlin keeps finding open doors in Washington.
open.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 6:19 AM
Why Some Americans Still Believe Russia Can Be a Friend
Putin needs America far more as an enemy than the US could ever need Russia as a partner.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Putin needs America far more as an enemy than the US could ever need Russia as a partner.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Europe Holds the Cards America Won’t Play.
If the United States will not play its cards, Europe must open its own deck — and play to win.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
If the United States will not play its cards, Europe must open its own deck — and play to win.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Europe Holds the Cards America Won’t Play
Why Washington hesitates on Russia — and why a Franco-British-German axis may be the only force capable of ending Moscow’s imperial ideology for good.
open.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:59 AM
Europe Holds the Cards America Won’t Play.
If the United States will not play its cards, Europe must open its own deck — and play to win.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
If the United States will not play its cards, Europe must open its own deck — and play to win.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Why Europeans Are Afraid — And Why They’re Absolutely Right.
Russia has spent a quarter-century in an imperial trance.
Every “profitable” Russian deal is an intelligence operation in disguise.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Russia has spent a quarter-century in an imperial trance.
Every “profitable” Russian deal is an intelligence operation in disguise.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Why Europeans Are Afraid — And Why They’re Absolutely Right
An empire that can’t stop expanding always ends in war — Europe knows this.
open.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Why Europeans Are Afraid — And Why They’re Absolutely Right.
Russia has spent a quarter-century in an imperial trance.
Every “profitable” Russian deal is an intelligence operation in disguise.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Russia has spent a quarter-century in an imperial trance.
Every “profitable” Russian deal is an intelligence operation in disguise.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Peace That Would Start the Next War
Every sentence in this plan moves the world closer to a larger conflict — not because of Ukraine, but because of the unavoidable trajectory of a revived, emboldened, revitalized Russia.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Every sentence in this plan moves the world closer to a larger conflict — not because of Ukraine, but because of the unavoidable trajectory of a revived, emboldened, revitalized Russia.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Peace That Would Start the Next War
How the New “Ukraine Settlement” Reveals Washington’s Dangerous Misreading of Russia — and Sets the Stage for a Larger Conflict.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:12 AM
The Peace That Would Start the Next War
Every sentence in this plan moves the world closer to a larger conflict — not because of Ukraine, but because of the unavoidable trajectory of a revived, emboldened, revitalized Russia.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Every sentence in this plan moves the world closer to a larger conflict — not because of Ukraine, but because of the unavoidable trajectory of a revived, emboldened, revitalized Russia.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
How the Kremlin Turns American Billionaires into Unwitting Relays.
People who genuinely think the world is a marketplace and that conflict is nothing more than a misunderstanding caused by bad intermediaries...
Steve Witkoff is a textbook case.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
People who genuinely think the world is a marketplace and that conflict is nothing more than a misunderstanding caused by bad intermediaries...
Steve Witkoff is a textbook case.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
How the Kremlin Turns American Billionaires into Unwitting Relays
The Steve Witkoff Case — And Why He Doesn’t Even Realize He’s Been Played.
open.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:15 PM
How the Kremlin Turns American Billionaires into Unwitting Relays.
People who genuinely think the world is a marketplace and that conflict is nothing more than a misunderstanding caused by bad intermediaries...
Steve Witkoff is a textbook case.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
People who genuinely think the world is a marketplace and that conflict is nothing more than a misunderstanding caused by bad intermediaries...
Steve Witkoff is a textbook case.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Hidden Cost of “Peace”: How Russia’s Influence Machinery Re-Enters Ukraine.
Any proposal that demands Ukraine to “normalize” the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) or cut its armed forces in half is not a peace plan.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Any proposal that demands Ukraine to “normalize” the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) or cut its armed forces in half is not a peace plan.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Hidden Cost of “Peace”: How Russia’s Influence Machinery Re-Enters Ukraine
Why recognizing the Moscow-controlled church and downsizing Ukraine’s army would only prepare the ground for the next war.
open.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:44 AM
The Hidden Cost of “Peace”: How Russia’s Influence Machinery Re-Enters Ukraine.
Any proposal that demands Ukraine to “normalize” the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) or cut its armed forces in half is not a peace plan.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Any proposal that demands Ukraine to “normalize” the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) or cut its armed forces in half is not a peace plan.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Sanctions Don’t Work Until They Break Something.
You cannot negotiate with Russia until you’ve first inflicted a level of pain that forces the Kremlin to remember gravity.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
You cannot negotiate with Russia until you’ve first inflicted a level of pain that forces the Kremlin to remember gravity.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Sanctions Don’t Work Until They Break Something
With Moscow, diplomacy begins only after you’ve shattered its kneecaps. Anything before that is a delusion dressed up as dialogue.
open.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Sanctions Don’t Work Until They Break Something.
You cannot negotiate with Russia until you’ve first inflicted a level of pain that forces the Kremlin to remember gravity.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
You cannot negotiate with Russia until you’ve first inflicted a level of pain that forces the Kremlin to remember gravity.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Russia’s Era of Untouchable Spheres of Influence Is Ending.
Re-anchoring Russia to reality will require years of consistent pressure. It will demand a clear strategic line that spans multiple U.S. administrations.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Re-anchoring Russia to reality will require years of consistent pressure. It will demand a clear strategic line that spans multiple U.S. administrations.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Russia’s Era of Untouchable Spheres of Influence Is Ending
How Moscow Is Losing the Regions It Once Considered Its Own.
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Russia’s Era of Untouchable Spheres of Influence Is Ending.
Re-anchoring Russia to reality will require years of consistent pressure. It will demand a clear strategic line that spans multiple U.S. administrations.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Re-anchoring Russia to reality will require years of consistent pressure. It will demand a clear strategic line that spans multiple U.S. administrations.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
From Harvard to RT: The Tragic Decline of Jeffrey Sachs.
It’s a short road when ego becomes ideology.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
It’s a short road when ego becomes ideology.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
From Harvard to RT: The Tragic Decline of Jeffrey Sachs
His story is not just about personal decline; it’s about what happens when intellect loses its moral compass and vanity replaces integrity.
open.substack.com
November 15, 2025 at 5:11 AM
From Harvard to RT: The Tragic Decline of Jeffrey Sachs.
It’s a short road when ego becomes ideology.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
It’s a short road when ego becomes ideology.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Sanctions Were Never the Strategy — Just the Scenery.
“We’ve sanctioned everything we can.”
Which really means:
“We’ve done everything that doesn’t require courage.”
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
“We’ve sanctioned everything we can.”
Which really means:
“We’ve done everything that doesn’t require courage.”
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
Sanctions Were Never the Strategy — Just the Scenery
Washington keeps saying it’s “running out of things to sanction,” but the real problem is that sanctions were never designed to stop Putin — only to create the illusion of action.
open.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Sanctions Were Never the Strategy — Just the Scenery.
“We’ve sanctioned everything we can.”
Which really means:
“We’ve done everything that doesn’t require courage.”
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
“We’ve sanctioned everything we can.”
Which really means:
“We’ve done everything that doesn’t require courage.”
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Illusion of Control: When Power Becomes Its Own Prison.
In Russian opposition circles, there’s an old phrase we repeat almost like a prayer: power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
In Russian opposition circles, there’s an old phrase we repeat almost like a prayer: power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
The Illusion of Control: When Power Becomes Its Own Prison.
From Washington to the Kremlin — How the fear of renewal dooms even the most powerful leaders.
open.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 11:20 AM
The Illusion of Control: When Power Becomes Its Own Prison.
In Russian opposition circles, there’s an old phrase we repeat almost like a prayer: power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...
In Russian opposition circles, there’s an old phrase we repeat almost like a prayer: power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
open.substack.com/pub/sergeist...