Randy Thanthong-Knight
@rtkwrites.bsky.social
Canada economics & government reporter at Bloomberg News in Ottawa. Also write about trade, border and immigration. And sometimes post pics of my dog.
Uncertainty about US President Donald Trump’s trade policy is curbing Canadian business investment and consumer spending, though firms see the economy avoiding a bad recession, central bank surveys show.
Firms See Canada Escaping Worst Tariff Outcomes, Survey Shows
Uncertainty about US President Donald Trump’s trade policy is curbing Canadian business investment and consumer spending, though firms see the economy avoiding a bad recession, central bank surveys sh...
www.bloomberg.com
July 24, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Uncertainty about US President Donald Trump’s trade policy is curbing Canadian business investment and consumer spending, though firms see the economy avoiding a bad recession, central bank surveys show.
Canadians say they’re ramping up their boycott of US travel and products in response to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the country’s central bank is taking notice.
“I won’t be going to the US anytime soon,” one respondent told the bank. “I don’t feel good about spending my money there.”
“I won’t be going to the US anytime soon,” one respondent told the bank. “I don’t feel good about spending my money there.”
‘I Won’t Be Going’: Canadians Explain Their US Boycott to the Central Bank
Canadians say they’re ramping up their boycott of US travel and products in response to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the country’s central bank is taking notice.
www.bloomberg.com
July 24, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Canadians say they’re ramping up their boycott of US travel and products in response to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the country’s central bank is taking notice.
“I won’t be going to the US anytime soon,” one respondent told the bank. “I don’t feel good about spending my money there.”
“I won’t be going to the US anytime soon,” one respondent told the bank. “I don’t feel good about spending my money there.”
Canadian retail sales grew at the fastest pace this year in June, according to an official estimate, bouncing back from a slowdown in May.
*June sales likely +1.6% m/m
*May sales -1.1% and April +0.4%
*2Q sales estimate +0.4% q/q, the weakest quarterly pace in a year
*June sales likely +1.6% m/m
*May sales -1.1% and April +0.4%
*2Q sales estimate +0.4% q/q, the weakest quarterly pace in a year
Canadian Consumer Spending Loses Steam in Second Quarter
Canadian retail sales grew at the fastest pace this year in June, according to an official estimate, bouncing back from a slowdown in May.
www.bloomberg.com
July 24, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Canadian retail sales grew at the fastest pace this year in June, according to an official estimate, bouncing back from a slowdown in May.
*June sales likely +1.6% m/m
*May sales -1.1% and April +0.4%
*2Q sales estimate +0.4% q/q, the weakest quarterly pace in a year
*June sales likely +1.6% m/m
*May sales -1.1% and April +0.4%
*2Q sales estimate +0.4% q/q, the weakest quarterly pace in a year
Canadian consumer prices accelerated for the first time in four months and underlying price pressures were firmer, likely keeping the central bank from cutting interest rates on July 30.
*CPI +1.9% y/y in June, up from 1.7% in May
*The index +0.1% m/m last month
*Core rates +3.05%, up from 3%
*CPI +1.9% y/y in June, up from 1.7% in May
*The index +0.1% m/m last month
*Core rates +3.05%, up from 3%
Canada Inflation Accelerates, Cementing July Rate Pause
Canadian consumer prices accelerated for the first time in four months and underlying price pressures were firmer, likely keeping the central bank from cutting interest rates later this month.
www.bloomberg.com
July 15, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Canadian consumer prices accelerated for the first time in four months and underlying price pressures were firmer, likely keeping the central bank from cutting interest rates on July 30.
*CPI +1.9% y/y in June, up from 1.7% in May
*The index +0.1% m/m last month
*Core rates +3.05%, up from 3%
*CPI +1.9% y/y in June, up from 1.7% in May
*The index +0.1% m/m last month
*Core rates +3.05%, up from 3%
The Canadian economy shrugged off tariff uncertainty, adding the most jobs in six months with the unemployment rate falling for the first time since January.
*Employment +83,100 in June
*Jobless rate fell 0.1 pp to 6.9%
*Part-time work made up 84% of job gains
*Private +47,000; public +23,000
*Employment +83,100 in June
*Jobless rate fell 0.1 pp to 6.9%
*Part-time work made up 84% of job gains
*Private +47,000; public +23,000
Canada Unexpectedly Adds 83,100 Jobs, Biggest Gain of 2025
The Canadian economy shrugged off tariff uncertainty as the labor force added the most jobs in six months and the unemployment rate surprisingly fell, supporting another interest rate pause from the B...
www.bloomberg.com
July 11, 2025 at 5:00 PM
The Canadian economy shrugged off tariff uncertainty, adding the most jobs in six months with the unemployment rate falling for the first time since January.
*Employment +83,100 in June
*Jobless rate fell 0.1 pp to 6.9%
*Part-time work made up 84% of job gains
*Private +47,000; public +23,000
*Employment +83,100 in June
*Jobless rate fell 0.1 pp to 6.9%
*Part-time work made up 84% of job gains
*Private +47,000; public +23,000
It seems that nothing Canada has tried so far has shielded it from the threats of Donald Trump.
Love this quote from @karl-schamotta.bsky.social: “There was hope that there was light at the end of the tunnel — unfortunately it appears that light is a train.”
Love this quote from @karl-schamotta.bsky.social: “There was hope that there was light at the end of the tunnel — unfortunately it appears that light is a train.”
Trump’s 35% Tariff Bulldozer Tests Carney’s Strategy of Avoiding Conflict
It seems that nothing Canada has tried so far has shielded it from the threats of Donald Trump.
www.bloomberg.com
July 11, 2025 at 4:56 PM
It seems that nothing Canada has tried so far has shielded it from the threats of Donald Trump.
Love this quote from @karl-schamotta.bsky.social: “There was hope that there was light at the end of the tunnel — unfortunately it appears that light is a train.”
Love this quote from @karl-schamotta.bsky.social: “There was hope that there was light at the end of the tunnel — unfortunately it appears that light is a train.”
Canadians are committed to ditching US travel, taking the fewest number of car trips there in the year’s first half since at least 2017, excluding the pandemic.
*Canadians returned from 8m trips in 1H, vs. 11m in 2024
*Canadian return trips by car from the US -33% y/y in June
*And by air -22% y/y
*Canadians returned from 8m trips in 1H, vs. 11m in 2024
*Canadian return trips by car from the US -33% y/y in June
*And by air -22% y/y
US Sees 33% Drop in Car Trips by Canadians as Summer Travel Starts
Canadians are committed to ditching US travel, taking the fewest number of car trips there in the year’s first half since at least 2017, excluding the pandemic.
www.bloomberg.com
July 10, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Canadians are committed to ditching US travel, taking the fewest number of car trips there in the year’s first half since at least 2017, excluding the pandemic.
*Canadians returned from 8m trips in 1H, vs. 11m in 2024
*Canadian return trips by car from the US -33% y/y in June
*And by air -22% y/y
*Canadians returned from 8m trips in 1H, vs. 11m in 2024
*Canadian return trips by car from the US -33% y/y in June
*And by air -22% y/y
A growing number of migrants in the US are heading north, even as Canada adopts increasingly restrictive immigration policies of its own.
*Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle crossing saw asylum claims jumped by more than 400% y/y, first six days of July
*Claims +128% in June; +82% so far this year
*Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle crossing saw asylum claims jumped by more than 400% y/y, first six days of July
*Claims +128% in June; +82% so far this year
Trump Immigration Crackdown Sends More Asylum Seekers North
A growing number of migrants in the US are heading north to seek asylum, even as Canada adopts increasingly restrictive immigration policies of its own.
www.bloomberg.com
July 10, 2025 at 5:18 PM
A growing number of migrants in the US are heading north, even as Canada adopts increasingly restrictive immigration policies of its own.
*Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle crossing saw asylum claims jumped by more than 400% y/y, first six days of July
*Claims +128% in June; +82% so far this year
*Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle crossing saw asylum claims jumped by more than 400% y/y, first six days of July
*Claims +128% in June; +82% so far this year
Canada should become a world leader in producing and processing raw materials for military equipment and defense systems, according to the Business Council of Canada.
Top CEOs Want Canada to Build a Strategic Minerals Reserve for Defense
Canada should become a world leader in producing and processing raw materials for military equipment and defense systems, according to an influential business group.
www.bloomberg.com
July 10, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Canada should become a world leader in producing and processing raw materials for military equipment and defense systems, according to the Business Council of Canada.
The Canadian economy is on track for a modest decline this quarter, yet isn’t deteriorating as fast as some economists feared.
*April GDP -0.1% m/m
*May GDP also -0.1% m/m
*Assuming no growth in June, 2Q likely -0.3% q/q annualized, vs economist estimates of -0.5% and BOC forecast of 0% to -1.3%
*April GDP -0.1% m/m
*May GDP also -0.1% m/m
*Assuming no growth in June, 2Q likely -0.3% q/q annualized, vs economist estimates of -0.5% and BOC forecast of 0% to -1.3%
Canada Economy Set for Contraction in Second Quarter
The Canadian economy is on track for a modest decline this quarter, yet isn’t deteriorating as fast as some economists feared.
www.bloomberg.com
June 27, 2025 at 3:31 PM
The Canadian economy is on track for a modest decline this quarter, yet isn’t deteriorating as fast as some economists feared.
*April GDP -0.1% m/m
*May GDP also -0.1% m/m
*Assuming no growth in June, 2Q likely -0.3% q/q annualized, vs economist estimates of -0.5% and BOC forecast of 0% to -1.3%
*April GDP -0.1% m/m
*May GDP also -0.1% m/m
*Assuming no growth in June, 2Q likely -0.3% q/q annualized, vs economist estimates of -0.5% and BOC forecast of 0% to -1.3%
Youth unemployment in Canada jumped 3.6 pp over the past two years, the sharpest increase among the 25 largest OECD economies — including the US, UK and Australia.
As of May, one in seven Canadian youth can’t find work, and they’re more than twice as likely as other age groups to be unemployed.
As of May, one in seven Canadian youth can’t find work, and they’re more than twice as likely as other age groups to be unemployed.
Canada’s Youth Job Market Slumps Most Among Major Economies
Young Canadians are facing a labor market that has deteriorated faster than in any other major advanced economy.
www.bloomberg.com
June 26, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Youth unemployment in Canada jumped 3.6 pp over the past two years, the sharpest increase among the 25 largest OECD economies — including the US, UK and Australia.
As of May, one in seven Canadian youth can’t find work, and they’re more than twice as likely as other age groups to be unemployed.
As of May, one in seven Canadian youth can’t find work, and they’re more than twice as likely as other age groups to be unemployed.
Canadian consumer prices held steady while core measures eased slightly, likely giving some relief to Bank of Canada policymakers who had raised concerns about hotter underlying inflation prints in recent months.
*CPI rose 1.7% y/y in May, matching April's pace
*Core +3%, down from 3.1% in April
*CPI rose 1.7% y/y in May, matching April's pace
*Core +3%, down from 3.1% in April
Canada Inflation Holds at 1.7% in May as Core Pressures Cool
Canadian consumer prices held steady while core measures eased slightly, likely giving some relief to Bank of Canada policymakers who had raised concerns about hotter underlying inflation prints in re...
www.bloomberg.com
June 25, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Canadian consumer prices held steady while core measures eased slightly, likely giving some relief to Bank of Canada policymakers who had raised concerns about hotter underlying inflation prints in recent months.
*CPI rose 1.7% y/y in May, matching April's pace
*Core +3%, down from 3.1% in April
*CPI rose 1.7% y/y in May, matching April's pace
*Core +3%, down from 3.1% in April
Tighter immigration rules have cut off the fuel from the Canadian population growth engine.
*Canada added just 20,107 people in 1Q
*That's 0% quarterly population growth vs. 1Q average of 0.3% over the past decade
*It's the slowest quarterly rate since records began in 1946, tied with 4Q of 2014
*Canada added just 20,107 people in 1Q
*That's 0% quarterly population growth vs. 1Q average of 0.3% over the past decade
*It's the slowest quarterly rate since records began in 1946, tied with 4Q of 2014
Immigration Curb Slashes Canada Population Growth Rate to Zero
Tighter immigration rules have cut off the fuel from the Canadian population growth engine.
www.bloomberg.com
June 18, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Tighter immigration rules have cut off the fuel from the Canadian population growth engine.
*Canada added just 20,107 people in 1Q
*That's 0% quarterly population growth vs. 1Q average of 0.3% over the past decade
*It's the slowest quarterly rate since records began in 1946, tied with 4Q of 2014
*Canada added just 20,107 people in 1Q
*That's 0% quarterly population growth vs. 1Q average of 0.3% over the past decade
*It's the slowest quarterly rate since records began in 1946, tied with 4Q of 2014
Bank of Canada officials said it would be tough to cut the policy interest rate further if core inflation remains firm, but acknowledged more easing may be needed if the economy continues to weaken.
Harder to Cut With Core Inflation Firm, Bank of Canada Says
Bank of Canada officials said it would be tough to cut the policy interest rate further if core inflation remains firm, but acknowledged more easing may be needed if the economy continues to weaken.
www.bloomberg.com
June 18, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Bank of Canada officials said it would be tough to cut the policy interest rate further if core inflation remains firm, but acknowledged more easing may be needed if the economy continues to weaken.
By 2030, Bloomberg Economics forecasts, if Trump’s current tariff regime endures, the global economy will be $1 trillion smaller than it would have been had the US remained in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Trump Ripping Up the Free Trade Playbook Comes With $1 Trillion Cost
The ominous trajectory of the US president’s tariff overhaul looms over the G-7 gathering.
www.bloomberg.com
June 13, 2025 at 5:55 PM
By 2030, Bloomberg Economics forecasts, if Trump’s current tariff regime endures, the global economy will be $1 trillion smaller than it would have been had the US remained in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Cross-border road trips to the US from Canada fell for a fifth straight month in May.
*Canadian-resident return trips by automobile from the US -38.1% y/y
*Canadians’ return trips by air from US -24.2%, versus +9.8% from other countries
*US car trips to Canada -8.4%
*Canadian-resident return trips by automobile from the US -38.1% y/y
*Canadians’ return trips by air from US -24.2%, versus +9.8% from other countries
*US car trips to Canada -8.4%
More Canadians Are Ditching US Road Trips With 38% Annual Drop
Cross-border road trips to the US from Canada fell for a fifth straight month, a gloomy outlook for many American vacation spots once frequented by their northern neighbors during the peak summer trav...
www.bloomberg.com
June 13, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Cross-border road trips to the US from Canada fell for a fifth straight month in May.
*Canadian-resident return trips by automobile from the US -38.1% y/y
*Canadians’ return trips by air from US -24.2%, versus +9.8% from other countries
*US car trips to Canada -8.4%
*Canadian-resident return trips by automobile from the US -38.1% y/y
*Canadians’ return trips by air from US -24.2%, versus +9.8% from other countries
*US car trips to Canada -8.4%
Canada’s trade-driven sectors are showing clearer signs of a pullback in activity brought on by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
*Manufacturing sales fell 2.8% in April, the largest monthly drop since October 2023 and the lowest level since early 2022
*Wholesale sales dropped 2.3%
*Manufacturing sales fell 2.8% in April, the largest monthly drop since October 2023 and the lowest level since early 2022
*Wholesale sales dropped 2.3%
Tariff-Hit Factory and Wholesale Sales in Canada Fell in April
Canada’s trade-driven sectors are showing clearer signs of a pullback in activity brought on by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
www.bloomberg.com
June 13, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Canada’s trade-driven sectors are showing clearer signs of a pullback in activity brought on by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
*Manufacturing sales fell 2.8% in April, the largest monthly drop since October 2023 and the lowest level since early 2022
*Wholesale sales dropped 2.3%
*Manufacturing sales fell 2.8% in April, the largest monthly drop since October 2023 and the lowest level since early 2022
*Wholesale sales dropped 2.3%
The Canadian economy eked out minor job gains, and the unemployment rate rose for a third straight month to the highest level since September 2016 outside of the pandemic.
*Employment grew by 8,800 positions in May
*Jobless rate rose 0.1 ppt to 7%
*Number of unemployed people +13.8% y/y
*Employment grew by 8,800 positions in May
*Jobless rate rose 0.1 ppt to 7%
*Number of unemployed people +13.8% y/y
Canada Adds Just 8,800 Jobs, Unemployment Rises to 7%
The Canadian economy eked out minor job gains, and the unemployment rate rose for a third straight month to the highest level since September 2016 outside of the pandemic.
www.bloomberg.com
June 6, 2025 at 5:28 PM
The Canadian economy eked out minor job gains, and the unemployment rate rose for a third straight month to the highest level since September 2016 outside of the pandemic.
*Employment grew by 8,800 positions in May
*Jobless rate rose 0.1 ppt to 7%
*Number of unemployed people +13.8% y/y
*Employment grew by 8,800 positions in May
*Jobless rate rose 0.1 ppt to 7%
*Number of unemployed people +13.8% y/y
Businesses believing that the worst-case tariff scenarios were less likely to become reality helped convince Bank of Canada policymakers to stay on the sidelines this month.
Firms’ Less ‘Catastrophic’ Outlook Kept Canada Rates on Hold
Businesses believing that the worst-case tariff scenarios were less likely to become reality helped convince Bank of Canada policymakers to stay on the sidelines this month.
www.bloomberg.com
June 5, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Businesses believing that the worst-case tariff scenarios were less likely to become reality helped convince Bank of Canada policymakers to stay on the sidelines this month.
Canadian exports plunged by the most in nearly 17 years outside of the pandemic, widening the country’s merchandise trade deficit to the largest on record.
*Canada's trade deficit reached C$7.1 billion in April
*Total exports fell 10.8%; imports were down 3.5%
*Exports to the US plunged 15.7%
*Canada's trade deficit reached C$7.1 billion in April
*Total exports fell 10.8%; imports were down 3.5%
*Exports to the US plunged 15.7%
Canada Trade Deficit Hits Record as Trump Tariffs Crush Exports
Canadian exports plunged by the most in nearly 17 years outside of the pandemic, widening the country’s merchandise trade deficit to the largest on record.
www.bloomberg.com
June 5, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Canadian exports plunged by the most in nearly 17 years outside of the pandemic, widening the country’s merchandise trade deficit to the largest on record.
*Canada's trade deficit reached C$7.1 billion in April
*Total exports fell 10.8%; imports were down 3.5%
*Exports to the US plunged 15.7%
*Canada's trade deficit reached C$7.1 billion in April
*Total exports fell 10.8%; imports were down 3.5%
*Exports to the US plunged 15.7%
Economists are abandoning their calls for monetary-policy easing in Canada next week as traders price in only a small chance of an interest-rate cut and the nation’s output beat all estimates.
BMO and RBC now expect no changes in rates next week, contrary to the cut they saw before.
BMO and RBC now expect no changes in rates next week, contrary to the cut they saw before.
Economists Join Traders as Bets on Canada Interest-Rate Cut Fall
Economists are abandoning their calls for monetary-policy easing in Canada next week as traders price in only a small chance of an interest-rate cut and the nation’s output beat all estimates.
www.bloomberg.com
May 30, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Economists are abandoning their calls for monetary-policy easing in Canada next week as traders price in only a small chance of an interest-rate cut and the nation’s output beat all estimates.
BMO and RBC now expect no changes in rates next week, contrary to the cut they saw before.
BMO and RBC now expect no changes in rates next week, contrary to the cut they saw before.
A strong jump in tariff-driven exports fueled Canada’s growth at the start of this year, offsetting domestic weakness in other parts of the economy.
*1Q GDP +2.2% annualized, up from 2.1% in 4Q
*Monthly GDP +0.1% in March and likely +0.1% in April
*Traders pared expectations for a June 4 rate cut
*1Q GDP +2.2% annualized, up from 2.1% in 4Q
*Monthly GDP +0.1% in March and likely +0.1% in April
*Traders pared expectations for a June 4 rate cut
Canada Economy Grows 2.2% in First Quarter, Beats All Forecasts
A strong jump in tariff-driven exports fueled Canada’s growth at the start of this year, offsetting domestic weakness in other parts of the economy.
www.bloomberg.com
May 30, 2025 at 4:09 PM
A strong jump in tariff-driven exports fueled Canada’s growth at the start of this year, offsetting domestic weakness in other parts of the economy.
*1Q GDP +2.2% annualized, up from 2.1% in 4Q
*Monthly GDP +0.1% in March and likely +0.1% in April
*Traders pared expectations for a June 4 rate cut
*1Q GDP +2.2% annualized, up from 2.1% in 4Q
*Monthly GDP +0.1% in March and likely +0.1% in April
*Traders pared expectations for a June 4 rate cut
The economic gains of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s defense spending boost will likely be worth more than double the planned investment costs, according to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economists.
Carney’s Defense Spending Will Add Up to $46 Billion to Economy, CIBC Says
The economic gains of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s defense spending boost will likely be worth more than double the planned investment costs, according to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economists...
www.bloomberg.com
May 28, 2025 at 7:44 PM
The economic gains of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s defense spending boost will likely be worth more than double the planned investment costs, according to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economists.
Great view of King Charles and Queen Camilla from our Bloomberg Ottawa office during their visit to Canada
May 27, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Great view of King Charles and Queen Camilla from our Bloomberg Ottawa office during their visit to Canada
Canadians have returned from 1.35 million fewer road trips to the US over the past two months than they did a year ago, eschewing crossing the border that US President Donald Trump called “artificial” and wanted removed.
Canadians’ Return Travel From US Plunges as Trump Tariffs Hit
Canadians have returned from 1.35 million fewer road trips to the US over the past two months than they did a year ago, eschewing crossing the border that US President Donald Trump called “artificial”...
www.bloomberg.com
May 12, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Canadians have returned from 1.35 million fewer road trips to the US over the past two months than they did a year ago, eschewing crossing the border that US President Donald Trump called “artificial” and wanted removed.