Rhodium Group
@rhg.com
Rhodium Group is an independent research provider, combining policy expertise and data-driven analysis to help decision-makers navigate global challenges.
While the extent of the decline in investment was the key uncertainty for 2025, the most important variable influencing China's real economic growth rate in 2026 will be its export performance.
Read our latest:
Read our latest:
China’s Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026
China's actual 2025 GDP growth fell short of 3%. For domestic demand to lift China above 2% GDP growth in 2026, Beijing must reverse the systemic causes of household and business malaise or pile on co...
rhg.com
December 24, 2025 at 2:45 PM
While the extent of the decline in investment was the key uncertainty for 2025, the most important variable influencing China's real economic growth rate in 2026 will be its export performance.
Read our latest:
Read our latest:
We estimate that China’s real GDP grew between 2.5% and 3.0% in 2025, about half of the 5.2% the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported through Q3. As in past years, the largest divergence between official numbers and ours was in investment estimates.
Read the note: rhg.com/research/chi...
Read the note: rhg.com/research/chi...
December 23, 2025 at 4:53 PM
We estimate that China’s real GDP grew between 2.5% and 3.0% in 2025, about half of the 5.2% the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported through Q3. As in past years, the largest divergence between official numbers and ours was in investment estimates.
Read the note: rhg.com/research/chi...
Read the note: rhg.com/research/chi...
How much did China's economy actually grow in 2025? Most likely around 2.5-3.0%.
In our latest note, we recap China's growth story this year and look ahead to what 2026 may hold:
In our latest note, we recap China's growth story this year and look ahead to what 2026 may hold:
China’s Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026
China's actual 2025 GDP growth fell short of 3%. For domestic demand to lift China above 2% GDP growth in 2026, Beijing must reverse the systemic causes of household and business malaise or pile on co...
rhg.com
December 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM
How much did China's economy actually grow in 2025? Most likely around 2.5-3.0%.
In our latest note, we recap China's growth story this year and look ahead to what 2026 may hold:
In our latest note, we recap China's growth story this year and look ahead to what 2026 may hold:
As China manages its currency against the dollar, the yuan has depreciated against the euro.
This has led to greater Chinese exports to Europe, a weakening of the EU's trade defense tools, and more pressure on European industry.
This has led to greater Chinese exports to Europe, a weakening of the EU's trade defense tools, and more pressure on European industry.
Malign Indifference: China's Currency and the Threat to Europe
China’s real exchange rate is likely to continue falling over the next two to three years, eroding the effectiveness of the EU’s trade defense and economic security toolbox.
rhg.com
December 19, 2025 at 2:17 PM
As China manages its currency against the dollar, the yuan has depreciated against the euro.
This has led to greater Chinese exports to Europe, a weakening of the EU's trade defense tools, and more pressure on European industry.
This has led to greater Chinese exports to Europe, a weakening of the EU's trade defense tools, and more pressure on European industry.
With European automakers under increasing pressure, the European Commission is considering new tools to restrict market access, safeguard jobs, and buy time for domestic producers, especially via local content requirements.
Made in Europe 2025: Can Local Content Requirements Save Europe’s Auto Industry?
Europe’s auto industry faces mounting pressure as falling Chinese demand, intensifying competition at home and in third markets, and US tariffs strain profitability and employment. The use of traditio...
rhg.com
December 15, 2025 at 3:07 PM
With European automakers under increasing pressure, the European Commission is considering new tools to restrict market access, safeguard jobs, and buy time for domestic producers, especially via local content requirements.
We're hiring! We're recruiting a Research Analyst to join our climate impacts projects team. This position supports the team’s work on understanding and communicating the impacts and costs of climate change, also joining Rhodium's collaboration with the Climate Impact Lab.
rhg.com/job-opportun...
rhg.com/job-opportun...
Research Analyst – Climate Impact Projects
Position Description Rhodium Group is looking for an entrepreneurial and talented Research Analyst to join our world-class team of climate scientists, policy analysts, and data and software engineers....
rhg.com
December 11, 2025 at 6:31 PM
We're hiring! We're recruiting a Research Analyst to join our climate impacts projects team. This position supports the team’s work on understanding and communicating the impacts and costs of climate change, also joining Rhodium's collaboration with the Climate Impact Lab.
rhg.com/job-opportun...
rhg.com/job-opportun...
Excitement about nuclear energy in the US is soaring amid increasing energy demand, data center buildout, and bipartisan support. In a new note, we discuss why now may be the best time in decades for new nuclear energy and what needs to happen for it to really take off rhg.com/research/nuc...
Nuclear Energy Renaissance: Are We There Yet?
Excitement about nuclear energy in the United States is soaring amid increasing energy demand and data center buildout, bipartisan congressional support, and a strong appetite from the Trump administr...
rhg.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Excitement about nuclear energy in the US is soaring amid increasing energy demand, data center buildout, and bipartisan support. In a new note, we discuss why now may be the best time in decades for new nuclear energy and what needs to happen for it to really take off rhg.com/research/nuc...
In our new preliminary estimates for global emissions and energy use in 2024, we find that global coal and oil use increased by about 1%, while natural gas consumption rose 3% and renewable energy use increased by nearly 13%.
December 8, 2025 at 7:41 PM
In our new preliminary estimates for global emissions and energy use in 2024, we find that global coal and oil use increased by about 1%, while natural gas consumption rose 3% and renewable energy use increased by nearly 13%.
Chinese auto investment in Europe is slowing, as producers find exports more attractive than investing in high-cost European production.
Some Chinese firms are instead turning to the EU’s neighborhood as an alternative base.
Some Chinese firms are instead turning to the EU’s neighborhood as an alternative base.
December 5, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Chinese auto investment in Europe is slowing, as producers find exports more attractive than investing in high-cost European production.
Some Chinese firms are instead turning to the EU’s neighborhood as an alternative base.
Some Chinese firms are instead turning to the EU’s neighborhood as an alternative base.
Each year, we provide updated estimates of global and national GHG emissions, enabling consistent tracking of trends across countries and over time. In our new update, we find that global emissions reached a historical high in 2024, increasing 0.9% from 2023.
December 4, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Each year, we provide updated estimates of global and national GHG emissions, enabling consistent tracking of trends across countries and over time. In our new update, we find that global emissions reached a historical high in 2024, increasing 0.9% from 2023.
In their latest op-ed, Rhodium Group's Agatha Kratz and Noah Barkin lay out why the longer Europe waits to address dependencies on China, the more difficult and costly the challenge becomes.
www.lesechos.fr
December 1, 2025 at 7:39 PM
In their latest op-ed, Rhodium Group's Agatha Kratz and Noah Barkin lay out why the longer Europe waits to address dependencies on China, the more difficult and costly the challenge becomes.
China’s mode of finance mixes concessional and commercial motives, and new financial flows are slowing as lenders look to control risk. The result has been that China is collecting more in debt service payments than it is disbursing in new loan finance.
November 26, 2025 at 2:22 PM
China’s mode of finance mixes concessional and commercial motives, and new financial flows are slowing as lenders look to control risk. The result has been that China is collecting more in debt service payments than it is disbursing in new loan finance.
As the continent's automakers face increasing pressure from Chinese OEMs, policymakers in Brussels are considering new tools to safeguard Europe's carmakers.
Local content requirements are emerging as a favored option. Will they work?
Local content requirements are emerging as a favored option. Will they work?
Made in Europe 2025: Can Local Content Requirements Save Europe’s Auto Industry?
Europe’s auto industry faces mounting pressure as falling Chinese demand, intensifying competition at home and in third markets, and US tariffs strain profitability and employment. The use of traditio...
rhg.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:52 PM
As the continent's automakers face increasing pressure from Chinese OEMs, policymakers in Brussels are considering new tools to safeguard Europe's carmakers.
Local content requirements are emerging as a favored option. Will they work?
Local content requirements are emerging as a favored option. Will they work?
From the start of 2018 through Q3 of 2025, companies have cancelled $17 billion worth of US industrial decarbonization projects, exceeding the $15 billion invested over the same period for 57 projects that have begun operating in the US.
November 21, 2025 at 5:49 PM
From the start of 2018 through Q3 of 2025, companies have cancelled $17 billion worth of US industrial decarbonization projects, exceeding the $15 billion invested over the same period for 57 projects that have begun operating in the US.
In Q3, US clean investment totaled $75 billion, a record quarterly high according to new data from the Clean Investment Monitor. This was largely driven by a surge in electric vehicle sales, which reached $31 billion and a 32% increase from the previous quarter.
November 20, 2025 at 5:15 PM
In Q3, US clean investment totaled $75 billion, a record quarterly high according to new data from the Clean Investment Monitor. This was largely driven by a surge in electric vehicle sales, which reached $31 billion and a 32% increase from the previous quarter.
In our latest report with the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social GeoEconomics Center, we unpack what China's economic slowdown means for African economies.
Read the full report:
Read the full report:
How China’s Economic Slowdown Will Impact Africa
Executive summary China’s economic rise and its integration with Africa have catalyzed new infrastructure and industries across the continent. But this also now exposes African countries to negative…
rhg.com
November 19, 2025 at 3:32 PM
In our latest report with the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social GeoEconomics Center, we unpack what China's economic slowdown means for African economies.
Read the full report:
Read the full report:
We're hiring! We're recruiting a Research Assistant to join our international energy & climate team.
The location is flexible, but Oakland, CA is preferred. rhg.com/job-opportun...
The location is flexible, but Oakland, CA is preferred. rhg.com/job-opportun...
Research Assistant: International Energy and Climate – Rhodium Group
Position Description Rhodium Group is looking for an entrepreneurial and talented Research Assistant to join our world-class team of economists, policy analysts, researchers, and data engineers. As a…
rhg.com
November 14, 2025 at 6:45 PM
We're hiring! We're recruiting a Research Assistant to join our international energy & climate team.
The location is flexible, but Oakland, CA is preferred. rhg.com/job-opportun...
The location is flexible, but Oakland, CA is preferred. rhg.com/job-opportun...
Join us at the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social next Tuesday afternoon as we release a new report on how China's economic slowdown will impact countries across Africa and their relationships with Beijing.
Register here:
Register here:
What China's economic slowdown means for Africa
The GeoEconomics Center and Rhodium Group launch a new report on how China's economic slowdown could impact Beijing's trade and financial engagement with African countries.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
November 13, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Join us at the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social next Tuesday afternoon as we release a new report on how China's economic slowdown will impact countries across Africa and their relationships with Beijing.
Register here:
Register here:
Thanks to policy and technological innovation, we anticipate steep declines in global emissions from the power sector—peaking in the coming decade and falling by 35-73% by 2050 from today's levels.
November 12, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Thanks to policy and technological innovation, we anticipate steep declines in global emissions from the power sector—peaking in the coming decade and falling by 35-73% by 2050 from today's levels.
As COP30 kicks off, our newly updated Rhodium Climate Outlook shows that while the world has likely avoided the most catastrophic projections, global temperature rise is on track to exceed 2°C. We project a likely range of 2.3–3.4°C and an average outcome of 2.8°C by the end of the century.
November 6, 2025 at 6:12 PM
As COP30 kicks off, our newly updated Rhodium Climate Outlook shows that while the world has likely avoided the most catastrophic projections, global temperature rise is on track to exceed 2°C. We project a likely range of 2.3–3.4°C and an average outcome of 2.8°C by the end of the century.
Chinese companies have invested millions of dollars in projects across the EV sector in Southeast Asia.
Indonesia in particular has seen significant upstream investment.
See the data for yourself in our latest dashboard: cbm.rhg.com/dashboard/ch...
Indonesia in particular has seen significant upstream investment.
See the data for yourself in our latest dashboard: cbm.rhg.com/dashboard/ch...
November 5, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Chinese companies have invested millions of dollars in projects across the EV sector in Southeast Asia.
Indonesia in particular has seen significant upstream investment.
See the data for yourself in our latest dashboard: cbm.rhg.com/dashboard/ch...
Indonesia in particular has seen significant upstream investment.
See the data for yourself in our latest dashboard: cbm.rhg.com/dashboard/ch...
Thanks to policy and technological innovation, we anticipate steep declines in global emissions from the power sector—peaking in the coming decade and falling by 35-73% by 2050 from today's levels.
November 4, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Thanks to policy and technological innovation, we anticipate steep declines in global emissions from the power sector—peaking in the coming decade and falling by 35-73% by 2050 from today's levels.
In our new 2025 edition of the Rhodium Climate Outlook, if current trends in policy and technology development continue, we project a likely (67% confidence) range of 2.3–3.4°C of temperature rise and an avg outcome of 2.8°C by 2100. The probability of limiting warming below 2°C remains below 5%.
November 3, 2025 at 6:49 PM
In our new 2025 edition of the Rhodium Climate Outlook, if current trends in policy and technology development continue, we project a likely (67% confidence) range of 2.3–3.4°C of temperature rise and an avg outcome of 2.8°C by 2100. The probability of limiting warming below 2°C remains below 5%.
Amid global anxiety about China weaponizing critical mineral supply chains, Chinese investment in basic materials reached a new high in Q3, especially in raw material inputs for the clean energy value chain.
Read more in our breakdown of China's Q3 outbound FDI:
Read more in our breakdown of China's Q3 outbound FDI:
China Continues Upstream Expansion in Supply Chains: Q3 2025 Update
Amid global anxiety about China weaponizing critical mineral supply chains, Chinese investment in basic materials reached a new high, especially in raw material inputs for the clean energy value chain...
cbm.rhg.com
October 30, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Amid global anxiety about China weaponizing critical mineral supply chains, Chinese investment in basic materials reached a new high in Q3, especially in raw material inputs for the clean energy value chain.
Read more in our breakdown of China's Q3 outbound FDI:
Read more in our breakdown of China's Q3 outbound FDI:
Interested in seeing more of the data in Rest of World's latest piece on the EV supply chain?
You can explore the whole dataset for free on the China Cross-Border Monitor:
You can explore the whole dataset for free on the China Cross-Border Monitor:
October 29, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Interested in seeing more of the data in Rest of World's latest piece on the EV supply chain?
You can explore the whole dataset for free on the China Cross-Border Monitor:
You can explore the whole dataset for free on the China Cross-Border Monitor: