Richard Colwell
@redcceo.bsky.social
CEO of RED C Research Group and President of WIN international research network. Content likely to be around human insight, brand building political polling, and maybe a little sailing, rugby and of course Spurs.
@businesspost.bsky.social our final presidential poll for @businesspost.bsky.social will be released tonight at 8pm.
October 22, 2025 at 12:46 PM
@businesspost.bsky.social our final presidential poll for @businesspost.bsky.social will be released tonight at 8pm.
Well that this weekends poll fieldwork messed up 😂
October 5, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Well that this weekends poll fieldwork messed up 😂
UK well on its way to follow the US to loony politics after those local election results.
May 2, 2025 at 9:19 PM
UK well on its way to follow the US to loony politics after those local election results.
Hers is my article on those gains for SF. Look great, but also very similar to the gains seen post the 2020 election. Can they translate this into real votes at an election?
Richard Colwell: Are Sinn Féin gains real or underpinned by short-term anti-government sentiment?
Richard Colwell: Are Sinn Féin gains real or underpinned by short-term anti-government sentiment?
Sinn Féin: while in pole position for most of the electoral cycle, the party ultimately became a leaky bucket, haemorrhaging nationalistic voters to the right wing and independents, and losing college-educated millennials to Soc Dems and Labour
www.businesspost.ie
April 26, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Hers is my article on those gains for SF. Look great, but also very similar to the gains seen post the 2020 election. Can they translate this into real votes at an election?
Latest @businesspost.bsky.social poll out today sees SF extend their lead in first preference vote to 4% ahead of other parties.
April 26, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Latest @businesspost.bsky.social poll out today sees SF extend their lead in first preference vote to 4% ahead of other parties.
Latest @businessposthq poll sees signs of “buyers remorse” as FF loses share, and opposition parties make small gains. businesspost.ie/api/oc-post/?u…
February 22, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Latest @businessposthq poll sees signs of “buyers remorse” as FF loses share, and opposition parties make small gains. businesspost.ie/api/oc-post/?u…
RED C are very proud of how close our final @businessposthq pre election poll was, matching our success at the last GE in 2020. With an average error of just 0.8%, we predicted Fianna Fail as the largest party & that they would be most transfer friendly. redcresearch.com/red-c-accuracy…
December 3, 2024 at 11:05 AM
RED C are very proud of how close our final @businessposthq pre election poll was, matching our success at the last GE in 2020. With an average error of just 0.8%, we predicted Fianna Fail as the largest party & that they would be most transfer friendly. redcresearch.com/red-c-accuracy…
@REDCResearch & @businessposthq last poll vs. exit poll. Average error of just 0.9%. Plenty of votes still to be counted. But suggests very accurate polling from all the Irish polling industry. Putting to bed the view that polls are always wrong AND that online polls don’t work!
November 29, 2024 at 10:59 PM
@REDCResearch & @businessposthq last poll vs. exit poll. Average error of just 0.9%. Plenty of votes still to be counted. But suggests very accurate polling from all the Irish polling industry. Putting to bed the view that polls are always wrong AND that online polls don’t work!
@businesspost poll
27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov)
Fianna Fáil 21% (=)
Fine Gael 20% (-2%)
Sinn Fein 20% (+2%)
Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%)
Soc Dems 6% (=)
Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%)
Green 4% (=)
Labour 4% (+1%)
Aontú 4% (-1%)
PBP-Solidarity 2% (=)
Others 1% (=)
Moe +\- 3%
FW 20th-26th
27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov)
Fianna Fáil 21% (=)
Fine Gael 20% (-2%)
Sinn Fein 20% (+2%)
Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%)
Soc Dems 6% (=)
Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%)
Green 4% (=)
Labour 4% (+1%)
Aontú 4% (-1%)
PBP-Solidarity 2% (=)
Others 1% (=)
Moe +\- 3%
FW 20th-26th
November 27, 2024 at 8:56 PM
@businesspost poll
27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov)
Fianna Fáil 21% (=)
Fine Gael 20% (-2%)
Sinn Fein 20% (+2%)
Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%)
Soc Dems 6% (=)
Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%)
Green 4% (=)
Labour 4% (+1%)
Aontú 4% (-1%)
PBP-Solidarity 2% (=)
Others 1% (=)
Moe +\- 3%
FW 20th-26th
27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov)
Fianna Fáil 21% (=)
Fine Gael 20% (-2%)
Sinn Fein 20% (+2%)
Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%)
Soc Dems 6% (=)
Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%)
Green 4% (=)
Labour 4% (+1%)
Aontú 4% (-1%)
PBP-Solidarity 2% (=)
Others 1% (=)
Moe +\- 3%
FW 20th-26th
Is it just me or is the @irishtimes.bsky.social poll only adding up to at best 98% with other parties. Understand this can happen due to rounding, but unusual to be 2% off the total.
November 25, 2024 at 9:43 AM
Is it just me or is the @irishtimes.bsky.social poll only adding up to at best 98% with other parties. Understand this can happen due to rounding, but unusual to be 2% off the total.
Reposted by Richard Colwell
Here’s one for those wanting to know how their policy positions compare with the parties
www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... VoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidates
www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... VoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidates
VoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidates
Phase two of the Irish Independent’s election tool ‘VoteSmart’ has gone live.
www.independent.ie
November 24, 2024 at 6:57 PM
Here’s one for those wanting to know how their policy positions compare with the parties
www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... VoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidates
www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... VoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidates
Great if you want help trying to decide who to vote for
Deciding how to vote in #ge24 This tool is great. Got my first four preferences exactly www.whichcandidate.ie
WhichCandidate
Find the candidate that matches your views on WhichCandidate.ie
www.whichcandidate.ie
November 24, 2024 at 7:12 PM
Great if you want help trying to decide who to vote for
A lot more time for larger parties in this 10 party debate as expected and probably tight. Yet have to feel sorry for some of the smaller parties. Think Joan Collins has had about 20 seconds speaking time so far.
November 18, 2024 at 10:17 PM
A lot more time for larger parties in this 10 party debate as expected and probably tight. Yet have to feel sorry for some of the smaller parties. Think Joan Collins has had about 20 seconds speaking time so far.
Can I have a yes or a no - will be a constant refrain me thinks #GE24 #Leadersdebate
November 18, 2024 at 9:50 PM
Can I have a yes or a no - will be a constant refrain me thinks #GE24 #Leadersdebate
Reposted by Richard Colwell
Reposted by Richard Colwell
To be clear, he won—I've seen zero evidence suggesting fraud. My point is that a 128,000-vote swing in 3 states would have led to a Harris administration. We remain a closely divided nation where informed voters voted for Harris and uninformed voters are about to be wildly surprised at what happens.
November 16, 2024 at 5:26 PM
To be clear, he won—I've seen zero evidence suggesting fraud. My point is that a 128,000-vote swing in 3 states would have led to a Harris administration. We remain a closely divided nation where informed voters voted for Harris and uninformed voters are about to be wildly surprised at what happens.
Reposted by Richard Colwell
go.bsky.app/6jV8qvJ This starter pack of Irish Media Personalities & Outlets has reached 100. These are suggestions not endorsements.
November 16, 2024 at 1:59 PM
go.bsky.app/6jV8qvJ This starter pack of Irish Media Personalities & Outlets has reached 100. These are suggestions not endorsements.
Only 2 polls so far this GE campaign. Face to face by Ipsos polling seems to show FG with a greater lead. But FF historically outperforms polls. FF currently higher share in the online polls, that they gave out about 3-4 months ago! Very tight among the top 3 tbh. Key to see any momentum in next wk.
November 15, 2024 at 9:45 PM
Only 2 polls so far this GE campaign. Face to face by Ipsos polling seems to show FG with a greater lead. But FF historically outperforms polls. FF currently higher share in the online polls, that they gave out about 3-4 months ago! Very tight among the top 3 tbh. Key to see any momentum in next wk.
Lucky enough to be in Venice today, visiting amazing sights and eating amazing food, but glued to rugby. Seems to be going much better for Ireland tonight.
November 15, 2024 at 8:35 PM
Lucky enough to be in Venice today, visiting amazing sights and eating amazing food, but glued to rugby. Seems to be going much better for Ireland tonight.
Latest update from Nate Silver in vote share in US election
Harris 75.0m votes (48.3%)
Trump 77.4m votes (49.8%)
other 2.9m votes (1.9%)
Trump margin +1.6% (with rounding)
You can win a “landslide” but still be within margin of error of many of the polls!
Harris 75.0m votes (48.3%)
Trump 77.4m votes (49.8%)
other 2.9m votes (1.9%)
Trump margin +1.6% (with rounding)
You can win a “landslide” but still be within margin of error of many of the polls!
November 15, 2024 at 8:27 AM
Latest update from Nate Silver in vote share in US election
Harris 75.0m votes (48.3%)
Trump 77.4m votes (49.8%)
other 2.9m votes (1.9%)
Trump margin +1.6% (with rounding)
You can win a “landslide” but still be within margin of error of many of the polls!
Harris 75.0m votes (48.3%)
Trump 77.4m votes (49.8%)
other 2.9m votes (1.9%)
Trump margin +1.6% (with rounding)
You can win a “landslide” but still be within margin of error of many of the polls!
Enjoying SEMPL marketing and media conference in Slovenia today. Such a beautiful country and some great content.
November 14, 2024 at 7:35 PM
Enjoying SEMPL marketing and media conference in Slovenia today. Such a beautiful country and some great content.