Vitaly Portnikov
@portnikov.bsky.social
Ukrainian author and journalist. Espreso TV. Radio Liberty. Visegrad Insight Fellow. Ukrainian PEN
The Davos Forum forced everyone to lay their cards on the table. It showed that European leaders are beginning to grasp the reality. But understanding is one thing—action is another. The answer to the challenge of Davos 2026 must be real action. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Trump, Putin, and the War for Europe’s Future
The very fact of U.S.
open.substack.com
January 23, 2026 at 9:56 AM
The Davos Forum forced everyone to lay their cards on the table. It showed that European leaders are beginning to grasp the reality. But understanding is one thing—action is another. The answer to the challenge of Davos 2026 must be real action. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
This means that instead of seeking meaningless dialogue with Putin, pressure on Russia must be increased. It means not boasting about the absence of aid to Ukraine, but strengthening this assistance – particularly by reinforcing air defense. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Putin’s “Cold Genocide”
This cold winter, almost every day Ukrainians expect new massive Russian strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure.
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:08 PM
This means that instead of seeking meaningless dialogue with Putin, pressure on Russia must be increased. It means not boasting about the absence of aid to Ukraine, but strengthening this assistance – particularly by reinforcing air defense. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
So, when Putin is spoken to in the language of pressure, sanctions, and the destruction of his energy companies—he understands.
When he sees attempts to negotiate with him—he launches the "Oreshnik" near European borders. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
When he sees attempts to negotiate with him—he launches the "Oreshnik" near European borders. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The “Oreshnik” signal
The latest barbaric bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities by the Russians—and in this case, the epithet "barbaric" is not a rhetorical exaggeration, as it involves attempts to deprive millions of...
open.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 10:04 AM
So, when Putin is spoken to in the language of pressure, sanctions, and the destruction of his energy companies—he understands.
When he sees attempts to negotiate with him—he launches the "Oreshnik" near European borders. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
When he sees attempts to negotiate with him—he launches the "Oreshnik" near European borders. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say: 2026 will be a year of deep political and economic uncertainty. And perhaps a year of global catastrophes.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
2026: A Year of Escalating Chaos and Possible Global Crises
When I think about the year 2026, I envision a world sliding even deeper into chaos than it experienced in 2025.
open.substack.com
January 10, 2026 at 8:10 AM
I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say: 2026 will be a year of deep political and economic uncertainty. And perhaps a year of global catastrophes.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
And I truly don’t understand why this part of the Russian émigré community should be called an “opposition.” In reality, this is just a symbiosis of FSB agents and useful idiots.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
On the Normalization of the Russian Regime
In light of the scandal involving Leonid Volkov, head of political projects at the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), I want to reiterate my long-standing position: the very essence of these so-called ...
open.substack.com
January 7, 2026 at 11:36 AM
And I truly don’t understand why this part of the Russian émigré community should be called an “opposition.” In reality, this is just a symbiosis of FSB agents and useful idiots.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
And perhaps it is precisely in Putin’s unwillingness to acknowledge the economic realities of the coming years that the answer lies to the question of whether the war can be ended.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
How to Stop Putin
After meeting with advisers to the leaders of countries that support Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope for a swift conclusion to peace negotiations.
open.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 11:56 AM
And perhaps it is precisely in Putin’s unwillingness to acknowledge the economic realities of the coming years that the answer lies to the question of whether the war can be ended.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
We now live in a world where leaders understand only power and learn only from their own mistakes—if they learn at all. This isn’t a new chapter in human history. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The World After the Rules
Any attempt to forecast what 2026 might look like inevitably runs into a wall—the realization that forecasts no longer work.
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:05 AM
We now live in a world where leaders understand only power and learn only from their own mistakes—if they learn at all. This isn’t a new chapter in human history. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Nevertheless, it can be stated with some confidence that 2026 will be a year not so much of resolution, but of a gradual winding down of the war.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
A War That Fades, Not Ends: What 2026 Might Bring
The level of chaos the world is currently experiencing makes any attempt to construct a realistic political calendar extremely problematic.
open.substack.com
January 2, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Nevertheless, it can be stated with some confidence that 2026 will be a year not so much of resolution, but of a gradual winding down of the war.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
This means that if the Russians do not abandon their demands, which cannot be implemented into Ukrainian legislation, negotiations will inevitably reach a deadlock — which, of course, is what Putin wants, but not Trump.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Chocolate "Trump"
The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine at Donald Trump's private residence concluded without any specifics — and honestly, this was not a surprise to me.
open.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 11:25 AM
This means that if the Russians do not abandon their demands, which cannot be implemented into Ukrainian legislation, negotiations will inevitably reach a deadlock — which, of course, is what Putin wants, but not Trump.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
It was the impunity of evil — its triumph, its popularity, its power not only to defend itself but to judge others — that demonstrated the terrible truth: a maniac and a murderer only need to defeat another maniac to succeed. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The Dizzying Truth of the Nuremberg Trials
Every time I encounter yet another Western dramatization of the Nuremberg Trials, I am overwhelmed by a deep and almost unbearable sense of shame.
open.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 1:34 PM
It was the impunity of evil — its triumph, its popularity, its power not only to defend itself but to judge others — that demonstrated the terrible truth: a maniac and a murderer only need to defeat another maniac to succeed. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
As we know, in 2014 Putin had to put his large-scale annexation plan on hold. His 2022 blitzkrieg also failed — but that does not mean he abandoned his plan. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Why Putin Brought Up “Novorossiya” Again
Against the backdrop of ongoing talks that are supposedly meant to lead to an end of the Russian–Ukrainian war, the Russian president, during a press conference in New Delhi, spoke of the inevitabilit...
open.substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 7:49 AM
As we know, in 2014 Putin had to put his large-scale annexation plan on hold. His 2022 blitzkrieg also failed — but that does not mean he abandoned his plan. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The real test will come when — or if — this system breaks. If Russia, after four years of war under these “rules,” stops paying and starts drafting en masse again, the societal reaction will be very different. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Why Russia’s Mercenary Army Works
One of the Kremlin’s most effective strategies in minimizing domestic dissent has been the quiet shift from conscription to a mercenary army.
open.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 9:43 PM
The real test will come when — or if — this system breaks. If Russia, after four years of war under these “rules,” stops paying and starts drafting en masse again, the societal reaction will be very different. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
But Trump is underestimating Putin. For the Russian president, any concession by his opponent is a sign of weakness — and a cue to press harder.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The “Spirit of Anchorage”
Russian officials commenting in recent weeks on the Trump administration’s peace initiatives never fail to emphasize that any U.S.-Russia dialogue on ending the war in Ukraine must reflect the “Spirit...
open.substack.com
December 7, 2025 at 4:43 PM
But Trump is underestimating Putin. For the Russian president, any concession by his opponent is a sign of weakness — and a cue to press harder.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
But in truth, the entire period from 1914 to 1945 was a single war period — with two massive eruptions. It wasn’t four years. It was thirty.
And now, we are living through a similarly extended wartime era in the history of Europe — and the world. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
And now, we are living through a similarly extended wartime era in the history of Europe — and the world. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The Real Danger of the So-Called “Negotiation Process”
The greatest danger of this so-called negotiation process is the disorientation of society — and not just Ukrainian society.
open.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 10:25 AM
But in truth, the entire period from 1914 to 1945 was a single war period — with two massive eruptions. It wasn’t four years. It was thirty.
And now, we are living through a similarly extended wartime era in the history of Europe — and the world. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
And now, we are living through a similarly extended wartime era in the history of Europe — and the world. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
But now — from Putin himself — we know for sure that we need to stop not just the war, but the genocide approved and sanctioned in the Kremlin. That is why the pressure on Russia must increase open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Putin and the War to the Last Ukrainian
During a meeting with journalists in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, Russian President Vladimir Putin, as if responding to those who wish to “fight to the last Ukrainian”, said that his country is...
open.substack.com
December 2, 2025 at 10:18 AM
But now — from Putin himself — we know for sure that we need to stop not just the war, but the genocide approved and sanctioned in the Kremlin. That is why the pressure on Russia must increase open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
peace plans that humiliate Ukraine and reward Russia for its brutal and unprovoked aggression only encourage Putin to continue the war open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
New Peace Plan or an Old Plan of Humiliation
Neither the fate nor the final content of the new “peace plan” proposed by U.S.
open.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:29 AM
peace plans that humiliate Ukraine and reward Russia for its brutal and unprovoked aggression only encourage Putin to continue the war open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Because let’s be honest: if someone truly wants peace, they agree to a ceasefire.
Then they sit down to talk.
Putin has refused a ceasefire.
That refusal is not just a policy choice — it’s a signal. It tells us everything we need to know.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Then they sit down to talk.
Putin has refused a ceasefire.
That refusal is not just a policy choice — it’s a signal. It tells us everything we need to know.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Trump’s Peace Plan Is a Trap — But Not for Russia
As expected, Ukrainians have once again been cornered into a false dilemma:
open.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Because let’s be honest: if someone truly wants peace, they agree to a ceasefire.
Then they sit down to talk.
Putin has refused a ceasefire.
That refusal is not just a policy choice — it’s a signal. It tells us everything we need to know.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Then they sit down to talk.
Putin has refused a ceasefire.
That refusal is not just a policy choice — it’s a signal. It tells us everything we need to know.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The longer Donald Trump refrains from such leadership, the clearer the risk that the world will slide toward large-scale war. In that scenario, given contemporary realities and technological changes, the U.S. risks becoming not just an arbiter but a battlefield. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
What Will Trump Do
The shift in Donald Trump’s rhetoric toward the Russian president and his aggression against Ukraine was received in Kyiv with optimism — but also with concern.
open.substack.com
September 29, 2025 at 5:14 PM
The longer Donald Trump refrains from such leadership, the clearer the risk that the world will slide toward large-scale war. In that scenario, given contemporary realities and technological changes, the U.S. risks becoming not just an arbiter but a battlefield. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The managed escalation is no longer about Ukraine alone. It is about remaking the balance of power, one humiliation at a time. And with each red line crossed, Putin’s confidence grows — matched only by the West’s silence. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Putin’s Ultimatums and Trump’s Silence
Vladimir Putin’s latest threats to use “military-technical means” — in plain language, war — against the West mark a calculated continuation of his policy of managed escalation.
open.substack.com
September 22, 2025 at 2:49 PM
The managed escalation is no longer about Ukraine alone. It is about remaking the balance of power, one humiliation at a time. And with each red line crossed, Putin’s confidence grows — matched only by the West’s silence. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
That is why I say — without exaggeration — that the frontline which will run for years between Ukrainian and Russian armies is not only a military boundary. It is also becoming the civilizational border of China. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Russia’s Asian Turn
When I argue that the most important outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine is not just territorial aggression, but a deliberate civilizational pivot from Europe to Asia, many see it as an exaggerati...
open.substack.com
September 21, 2025 at 3:09 PM
That is why I say — without exaggeration — that the frontline which will run for years between Ukrainian and Russian armies is not only a military boundary. It is also becoming the civilizational border of China. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is itself a precondition for a major war. He is dismantling the system of alliances that for decades restrained chaos.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan: A Dangerous New Alliance
The signing of a strategic cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is not just a diplomatic gesture.
open.substack.com
September 19, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is itself a precondition for a major war. He is dismantling the system of alliances that for decades restrained chaos.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The information campaign surrounding the resignation of Dmitry Kozak from the Russian presidential administration once again exposes the vulnerability of both Ukrainian and Western media spaces to Kremlin manipulation. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The Kozak Illusion
The information campaign surrounding the resignation of Dmitry Kozak from the Russian presidential administration once again exposes the vulnerability of both Ukrainian and Western media spaces to Kre...
open.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The information campaign surrounding the resignation of Dmitry Kozak from the Russian presidential administration once again exposes the vulnerability of both Ukrainian and Western media spaces to Kremlin manipulation. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Which means that if it turns out the West lacks an effective judiciary—the judiciary, not just free media—then disobedient journalists will soon disappear not only from Trump’s press conferences but from America
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
From Populist to Autocrat: Trump’s Roadmap
Donald Trump, who publicly promises an Australian journalist to complain about him to the Prime Minister of Australia, may at first provoke only a condescending smile.
open.substack.com
September 17, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Which means that if it turns out the West lacks an effective judiciary—the judiciary, not just free media—then disobedient journalists will soon disappear not only from Trump’s press conferences but from America
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Putin made mistakes — classic Putin-style mistakes.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
This isn’t an apocalypse. It’s a pause.
Just a month ago, Trump expressed doubts that Putin wanted to end the war.
open.substack.com
July 27, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Putin made mistakes — classic Putin-style mistakes.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...