Here’s a theory starting to percolate-is it a conspiracy?There is no way Murdoch (&big R donors who demanded JD as VP) would have let WSJ story run if they had any use left for Trump since the tax cuts have passed. Trump’s tariff& deportation agenda is idiotic, politically toxic & has to be stopped.

Afew things that the American people do not want (and will poll very badly):
1) turning our European allies against us.
2) befriending Putin/dismissing his brutality and war crimes.
3)conquering and annexing Greenland and/or Canada.
4)rejecting diversity and banning any mention of discrimination.

I want to zoom ahead to see what this all looks like in 2027. It will likely be one of two extremes and less chance of a middle outcome:
1) Full-on fascist autocratic extortion state w/ hopeless defeated opposition.
2) Economic catastrophe, institutions in shambles & Trump approval in 20s.

Calling Marco Rubio—do you care to elaborate on the US State Department’s official Gaza policy goals?

JD Vance is taking a very cynical risky bet. He understands this is all insane and will cause harm. But, he’s betting that American democracy, the constitutional order, and the world economy will somehow stay on the rails, and nobody will remember any of this happened.

Economic Predictions for 2028 Election Day: GDP growth below 3% in each of the 4 years, US debt has increased more than $5T, unemployment above 6%, S&P below 6000 (average 0% growth at best), Inflation 4 year average above 3%, mortgage rates above 5%, housing and healthcare increases > inflation.

It’s going to be difficult to reach a peace agreement with Putin that is acceptable to Ukraine or the West. Putin’s objective is not to acquire territory, but to conquer Ukraine and replace its government with an anti-democratic puppet regime.

It’s hard to imagine blanket 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will actually happen. More likely some very limited minimally consequential ones and of course they will way exaggerate the scope.

The cause of rising housing prices is shortage of supply in the geographic areas where most demand exists. Prediction: housing costs will continue to rise between 2025 and 2028, mortgage rates will stay above 6%, and inventory will remain tight (barring a catastrophic economic downturn.)

Prediction: there will be some token highly-hyped deportations in 2025, but not so mass, nor at levels much above what already occurs.