Pau S. Pujolas
@paupujolas.bsky.social
Father, husband, econ prof. Hanlon's razor optimist. I teach on the traditional territories of the Mississauga and Haudenosaunee nations. He/him.
pau.pujolasfons.com
pau.pujolasfons.com
Pinned
Pau S. Pujolas
@paupujolas.bsky.social
· May 11
If, as the say, "Wars are God's way of teaching Americans geography," it must be the case that "Tariffs are God's way of teaching Americans Economics."
Why not the Kehoe-Prescott?
July 6, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Why not the Kehoe-Prescott?
Have you written a great macro paper?
Submit to the CJE.
New macro crowd in the editorial board with Joe Steinberg at the helm.
#macro #econbluesky
Submit to the CJE.
New macro crowd in the editorial board with Joe Steinberg at the helm.
#macro #econbluesky
July 1, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Have you written a great macro paper?
Submit to the CJE.
New macro crowd in the editorial board with Joe Steinberg at the helm.
#macro #econbluesky
Submit to the CJE.
New macro crowd in the editorial board with Joe Steinberg at the helm.
#macro #econbluesky
Thanks for the nice words, John!
June 1, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Thanks for the nice words, John!
Thank you @chrisneill.bsky.social!!! We are very happy with the recognition!
May 31, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Thank you @chrisneill.bsky.social!!! We are very happy with the recognition!
If, as the say, "Wars are God's way of teaching Americans geography," it must be the case that "Tariffs are God's way of teaching Americans Economics."
May 11, 2025 at 12:06 AM
If, as the say, "Wars are God's way of teaching Americans geography," it must be the case that "Tariffs are God's way of teaching Americans Economics."
Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas
"I thought I was voting for pro-business policies and small, targeted, and incremental tariffs, that would encourage..." How could anyone watch Trump, listen to what he says, and think anything constructive would ensue on the economic policy front?
small and medium enterprise gotterdammerung
April 27, 2025 at 7:38 PM
"I thought I was voting for pro-business policies and small, targeted, and incremental tariffs, that would encourage..." How could anyone watch Trump, listen to what he says, and think anything constructive would ensue on the economic policy front?
Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas
We're in the midst of an election, so lots of not-entirely-fleshed-out promises being made. I think we have to wait to see the first budget from the incoming government.
April 25, 2025 at 1:07 AM
We're in the midst of an election, so lots of not-entirely-fleshed-out promises being made. I think we have to wait to see the first budget from the incoming government.
The Toronto Life folks (Ali Amad, in this case) did a great job summarizing how things have been.
torontolife.com/city/it-felt...
torontolife.com/city/it-felt...
"It felt like vertigo": The White House used this economist's research to justify tariffs. They couldn't have got it more wrong - Toronto Life
McMaster professor Pau Pujolas shares the story behind a Trump administration reading-comprehension fail
torontolife.com
April 24, 2025 at 2:46 PM
The Toronto Life folks (Ali Amad, in this case) did a great job summarizing how things have been.
torontolife.com/city/it-felt...
torontolife.com/city/it-felt...
Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas
Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
IntuitionDeficitWar.pdf
drive.google.com
April 16, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
IntuitionDeficitWar.pdf
drive.google.com
April 16, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...
Yes, the stock market behaves efficiently. Erratic, volatile are not antonyms of efficient.
Williamson is spot on, as usual.
Williamson is spot on, as usual.
1/So, I take "efficient market hypothesis" to be the proposition that there is some model of rational behavior consistent with asset market behavior. What's puzzling? You load the world up with a highly unusual amount of uncertainty, and then force it to respond to a quickly-evolving series...
I would really enjoy hearing a proponent of the efficient market hypothesis explain the last two days of stock market activity.
April 11, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Yes, the stock market behaves efficiently. Erratic, volatile are not antonyms of efficient.
Williamson is spot on, as usual.
Williamson is spot on, as usual.
Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas
1/So, I take "efficient market hypothesis" to be the proposition that there is some model of rational behavior consistent with asset market behavior. What's puzzling? You load the world up with a highly unusual amount of uncertainty, and then force it to respond to a quickly-evolving series...
I would really enjoy hearing a proponent of the efficient market hypothesis explain the last two days of stock market activity.
April 10, 2025 at 6:43 PM
1/So, I take "efficient market hypothesis" to be the proposition that there is some model of rational behavior consistent with asset market behavior. What's puzzling? You load the world up with a highly unusual amount of uncertainty, and then force it to respond to a quickly-evolving series...
I am happy the Globe and Mail published this piece.
April 9, 2025 at 11:39 PM
I am happy the Globe and Mail published this piece.
Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas
Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas
Trump Administration has cited this paper by Pujolas & Rossbach as justifying recent Trump tariffs. It does not. Nor does it justify 2018 Trump tariffs on China:
"We find that both the United States and China experienced welfare losses from their recent trade war."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
"We find that both the United States and China experienced welfare losses from their recent trade war."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Trade Wars with Trade Deficits
<div>
Trade imbalances significantly alter the welfare implications of tariffs. Using an illustrative <span>model, we show that trade deficits enhance a c
papers.ssrn.com
April 8, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Trump Administration has cited this paper by Pujolas & Rossbach as justifying recent Trump tariffs. It does not. Nor does it justify 2018 Trump tariffs on China:
"We find that both the United States and China experienced welfare losses from their recent trade war."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
"We find that both the United States and China experienced welfare losses from their recent trade war."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Worried about Smoot-Hawley repeating?
You should be *even more* worried now.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
You should be *even more* worried now.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
THE COST OF TRADE DISRUPTIONS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
We study trade disruptions at different stages of development in a two-country, three-sector model of Spain and United Kingdom from 1850 to 2000. The impact of trade disruptions depends on trade open....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
April 7, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Worried about Smoot-Hawley repeating?
You should be *even more* worried now.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
You should be *even more* worried now.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas
Advertencia importante de @paupujolas.bsky.social : los países pequeños siempre pierden en guerras comerciales. Razón de más para mantener filas prietas en la UE.
El juego del arancel: una historieta con cinco alarmas nadaesgratis.es/admin/el-jue... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía
El juego del arancel: una historieta con cinco alarmas
El pasado fin de semana, el Financial Times publicó un artículo sobre los trabajos académicos citados en el informe que la administración Trump utilizó para justificar su agresiva política arancelaria...
nadaesgratis.es
April 7, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Advertencia importante de @paupujolas.bsky.social : los países pequeños siempre pierden en guerras comerciales. Razón de más para mantener filas prietas en la UE.
De hecho, nuestros resultados indican que, de mantenerse los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales existentes, la política comercial óptima para Estados Unidos consiste en empezar un montón de guerras comerciales con varios países. 3/3
April 3, 2025 at 6:13 AM
De hecho, nuestros resultados indican que, de mantenerse los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales existentes, la política comercial óptima para Estados Unidos consiste en empezar un montón de guerras comerciales con varios países. 3/3
Los Estados Unidos podría iniciar una guerra comercial con China y, si se establecieran los aranceles correctos, ganarla. 2/3
April 3, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Los Estados Unidos podría iniciar una guerra comercial con China y, si se establecieran los aranceles correctos, ganarla. 2/3
Ya lo dijimos en este artículo
nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra...
De cara al futuro, los responsables de la formulación de políticas comerciales, deben comprender que los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales cambian la manera de pensar en guerras comerciales... 1/3
nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra...
De cara al futuro, los responsables de la formulación de políticas comerciales, deben comprender que los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales cambian la manera de pensar en guerras comerciales... 1/3
Guerras y Déficits en Comercio Internacional
Por Pau S. Pujolas y Jack Rossbach
El 2 de marzo de 2018, el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald J. Trump, tuiteó: "Cuando un país (EE. UU.) está perdiendo muchos miles de millones de dólares en c...
nadaesgratis.es
April 3, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Ya lo dijimos en este artículo
nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra...
De cara al futuro, los responsables de la formulación de políticas comerciales, deben comprender que los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales cambian la manera de pensar en guerras comerciales... 1/3
nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra...
De cara al futuro, los responsables de la formulación de políticas comerciales, deben comprender que los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales cambian la manera de pensar en guerras comerciales... 1/3
Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas
Elbows up, Canada.
March 22, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Elbows up, Canada.
A great idea from my friend David Feeny and his wife Darrell Tomkins.
Help a first-generation student by donating!
dailynews.mcmaster.ca/articles/why...
Help a first-generation student by donating!
dailynews.mcmaster.ca/articles/why...
Why McMaster Donors Give: Darrell Tomkins and David Feeny
When David Feeny and Darrell Tomkins met at McMaster in 1976, they never imagined that their shared love for academia would lead to not only . . .
dailynews.mcmaster.ca
March 17, 2025 at 7:17 PM
A great idea from my friend David Feeny and his wife Darrell Tomkins.
Help a first-generation student by donating!
dailynews.mcmaster.ca/articles/why...
Help a first-generation student by donating!
dailynews.mcmaster.ca/articles/why...
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Because "retaliating" is a misleasing word.
Because "retaliating" is a misleasing word.
Some countries aren't retaliating against Trump's tariffs. Should Canada 'turn the other cheek'? | CBC News
Faced with tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, some countries have decided, so far, to respond by turning the other cheek, and not retaliate with their own duties.
www.cbc.ca
March 15, 2025 at 1:15 AM
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Because "retaliating" is a misleasing word.
Because "retaliating" is a misleasing word.
Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas
One of my companies informed me they cancelled a $2m conference in Florida. Why ?
They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.
That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.
The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff
They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.
That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.
The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff
March 10, 2025 at 9:38 PM
One of my companies informed me they cancelled a $2m conference in Florida. Why ?
They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.
That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.
The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff
They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.
That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.
The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff