OSW - Centre for Eastern Studies
osweng.bsky.social
OSW - Centre for Eastern Studies
@osweng.bsky.social
Warsaw-based think-tank focused on Russia, Eastern Europe, Caucasus, China, Central Europe, Balkans, Germany
https://youtube.com/@centreforeasternstudies
Closing ranks: Russia-China energy cooperation amid escalating confrontation with the West

🔵In 2024 Russia🇷🇺sold gas to China🇨🇳via the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline over ⅓ cheaper than what European buyers were paying.

By Filip Rudnik & Maciej Kalwasiński⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Closing ranks: Russia-China energy cooperation amid escalating confrontation with the West
Cooperation in the energy sector, which has long been a key pillar of Russia-China economic relations, has assumed even greater importance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For the Kremlin, the sale...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 2, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Russia restricts Internet access in occupied Crimea and inside Russia #RussiaUkraineWar
December 31, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Babiš’s new government:🇨🇿Czechia first

❝The anticipated passivity in security policy is reflected in the 38-page draft government agenda, which makes no mention of🇷🇺Russia at all and refers to Ukraine🇺🇦only once.❞

More from Krzysztof Dębiec ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Babiš’s new government: Czechia first
On 15 December, President Petr Pavel formally nominated the government of Andrej Babiš, formed following the elections to the Chamber of Deputies held on 3–4 October (see ‘Parliamentary elections in t...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 30, 2025 at 9:51 AM
A bitter compromise over the🇪🇺EU’s financial assistance to🇺🇦Ukraine

🟥The Kremlin interpreted the EU’s decision to postpone using frozen Russian assets as a sign of weakness.

Łukasz Maślanka, Sławomir Matuszak & Iwona Wiśniewska have the details⤵️
osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
A bitter compromise over the EU’s financial assistance to Ukraine
During its summit on 18–19 December, the European Council did not agree to grant Ukraine the so-called reparations loan based on frozen Russian assets. However, a decision was taken to provide Kyiv with an interest-free loan of €90 billion, financed through joint EU borrowing on financial markets and backed by the EU budget headroom. Reaching unanimity within the European Council on this issue was made possible by excluding the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary from the financial guarantees for the EU-incurred loan.
osw.waw.pl
December 29, 2025 at 4:07 PM
🇺🇸US defence budget for 2026: Congress approves continued support for Ukraine and a military presence in Europe

🔵The allocation of $400 mn for🇺🇦Ukraine under the USAI does not guarantee these funds will be used.

More from Andrzej Kohut & Jacek Tarocinski ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
US defence budget for 2026: Congress approves continued support for Ukraine and a military presence in Europe
On 18 December, President Donald Trump signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for the 2026 fiscal year, after it received bipartisan support in Congress, passing the House of Re...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 29, 2025 at 7:56 AM
🎄OSW wishes you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.🎇
December 25, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Kupiansk finally captured?

Ukraine's🇺🇦counterattacks leave Russia🇷🇺in north of city #RussiaUkraineWar
December 23, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Central Asia - A Great Game

🔵Click the link to watch OSW experts discuss the strategic importance of🇰🇿Kazakhstan,🇰🇬Kyrgyzstan,🇹🇯Tajikistan,🇹🇲Turkmenistan and🇺🇿Uzbekistan's region and how🇷🇺Russia,🇨🇳China, the USA🇺🇸and the EU🇪🇺are interacting with them.📽️
youtu.be/1XtnZL5S_VY
Central Asia - A Great Game
YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
youtu.be
December 23, 2025 at 1:06 PM
🔘 Eased sanctions for the release of 123 prisoners as US–Belarus relations continue to thaw
➡️ By releasing nearly all opposition leaders, the regime aims to escalate tensions within the political exile community.

➡️By Kamil Kłysiński and Andrzej Kohut ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Eased sanctions for the release of 123 prisoners as US–Belarus relations continue to thaw
Following talks with Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk on 12–13 December, the US President’s Special Envoy for Belarus, John Coale, announced the lifting of the embargo on Belarusian potash fertilisers, ...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 22, 2025 at 7:40 AM
🔵Ukraine: an unrealistic budget for 2026

🔵The civilian part of 🇺🇦 budget for next year is entirely dependent on foreign support. Unlike the 2025 budget there is no certainty regarding the sources of financing for the full range of needs.

🔵By OSW's Sławomir Matuszak ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Ukraine: an unrealistic budget for 2026
The budget for next year, signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky on 10 December, provides for revenues of 2.9 trillion hryvnias (approximately $68.7 billion) and expenditures of 4.8 trillion hryvnias ...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 19, 2025 at 10:01 AM
🇩🇪Merz in Israel.🔵🇮🇱 (Un)conditional support?

Merz is seeking to strengthen Germany’s position as a mediator in the Middle East conflict, although its actual capacity for action remains limited.

🔵 OSW's Lidia Gibadło & Anna Kwiatkowska have more ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Merz in Israel. (Un)conditional support?
In the first week of December, Chancellor Friedrich Merz undertook a two-day visit to Jordan and Israel – his first since assuming office. In Jordan, he met King Abdullah II, to whom he expressed supp...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 18, 2025 at 3:20 PM
🇧🇬Bulgaria: government falls under pressure from public protests

🔵The situation will most likely be resolved with a snap parliamentary election. The main opposition parties have ruled out participating in a cabinet reshuffle.

🔵More from Jan Nowinowski ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Bulgaria: government falls under pressure from public protests
On 11 December, the government led by Rosen Zhelyazkov submitted its resignation, which the parliament approved the following day. The decision came in the wake of what was likely the largest protest ...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 18, 2025 at 11:46 AM
🔵 Russia 🇷🇺 added to the EU’s 🇪🇺 ‘blacklist’ of money-laundering jurisdictions
🔵 Until now, financial restrictions imposed on Russia have targeted only selected entities named in individual sanctions packages.

🔵 More insight by Iwona Wiśniewska ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Russia added to the EU’s ‘blacklist’ of money-laundering jurisdictions
On 3 December, the European Commission added Russia to the EU’s list of high-risk countries – commonly referred to as the ‘blacklist’ – deemed to have strategic deficiencies in their frameworks for co...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 17, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Dispute over peace:🇺🇦Ukraine between🇺🇸US pressure and🇷🇺Russian demands

🔵Zelensky’s position demonstrates Ukraine’s willingness to make concessions on the Donbas, but only under strict conditions.
More from @wojciechkononczuk.bsky.social K. Nieczypor and W. Rodkiewicz ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Dispute over peace: Ukraine between US pressure and Russian demands
During a press briefing on 11 December, President Volodymyr Zelensky provided an update on the current state of negotiations over the US-backed peace plan. It is currently based on a 20-point agreemen...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 15, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Belarusian balloons prompt emergency situation in Lithuania

Air traffic at the airports in Vilnius and Kaunas is regularly disrupted – this year alone, 613 balloon incursions into Lithuanian airspace have been recorded.

By Joanna Hyndle-Hussein & Kamil Kłysiński ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Belarusian balloons prompt emergency situation in Lithuania
On 9 December, the Lithuanian government declared a nationwide emergency due to the threat to civil security posed by Belarusian smuggling balloons, which have been active for the past two months. The...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 15, 2025 at 9:43 AM
🇩🇪Germany: the 2026 budget and rising debt

🔵The rise in defence spending is prompting automotive and machinery suppliers to shift part of their operations into the defence sector.

OSW's Aleksandra Kozaczyńska has more ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Germany: the 2026 budget and rising debt
The federal budget for 2026, adopted by the Bundestag, envisages expenditure of €524.5 billion – €21.5 billion more than in 2025 (see ‘Germany’s budget: increased investment and debt’) – made possible...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 12, 2025 at 6:53 PM
🎞️Our latest video looks at Russian 🇷🇺 concentration camps for Ukrainian 🇺🇦 civilian prisoners - a phenomenon that has been documented by Yevgenia Chirikova, who explains how this system of terror operates and what are its consequences ⤵️

www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuj9...
Russian concentration camps
YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
www.youtube.com
December 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
🔵 A blow to Russia’s influence in Central Europe?🇺🇸US sanctions target Russia’s oil sector

🇭🇺Hungary&Slovakia🇸🇰remain the only🇪🇺EU member states that continue to import🇷🇺Russian oil overland, owing to exemptions from the EU sanctions in force since 2023 ⤵️

www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
A blow to Russia’s influence in Central Europe? US sanctions target Russia’s oil sector
The sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia’s two largest oil companies on 22 October carry significant consequences for those Central European countries that have maintained their energy tie...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 11, 2025 at 2:56 PM
The new US National Security Strategy: a manifesto for a sovereign America in a multipolar world

In many respects, the NSS of the second Trump administration marks a turning point in how 🇺🇸 defines its role in the world.

More by @jgotkowska.bsky.social & Andrzej Kohut
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
The new US National Security Strategy: a manifesto for a sovereign America in a multipolar world
On 4 December, the Trump administration released a new National Security Strategy, signalling a profound redefinition of the United States’ role in the world and a shift in the objectives and assumpti...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 11, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad captured? Ukrainians withdraw from Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar

Latest update from Russia's war in Ukraine🎬
December 10, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Bosnia and Herzegovina in limbo: 30 years since the Dayton Agreement
🇧🇦The Dodik-fuelled separatist tendencies reached a climax in 2025, when he lost a court case over his refusal to comply with the decisions of the High Representative.
By Paulina Wankiewicz
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Bosnia and Herzegovina in limbo: 30 years since the Dayton Agreement
Thirty years after the signing of the Dayton Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) remains a state mired in persistent institutional crises. The country’s existing political and constitutional model...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 10, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan: consolidating the presidential system

🇰🇬No major violations were reported during the elections, but they cannot be regarded as free.

More from Daria Zielińska ⤵️
osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan: consolidating the presidential system
According to preliminary results from the snap parliamentary elections held in Kyrgyzstan on 30 November, candidates formally standing as independents but closely linked to President Sadyr Japarov are...
osw.waw.pl
December 9, 2025 at 11:25 AM
➡️ Turkey’s policy towards Libya: a year of major shifts

🔵 In 2025, 🇹🇷 reoriented its policy towards 🇱🇾, drawing both politically and militarily closer to its former rival, Khalifa Haftar – the leader of the Libyan National Army

➡️By Adam Michalski ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Turkey’s policy towards Libya: a year of major shifts
In 2025, Turkey reoriented its policy towards Libya, drawing both politically and militarily closer to its former rival, Khalifa Haftar – the leader of the Libyan National Army, which controls the eas...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 8, 2025 at 1:02 PM
➡️ Lessons from the war between Russia🇷🇺 and Ukraine🇺🇦 is the topic of our latest video.

🔵 We ask our OSW experts and a special guest LtGen Dymanowski about the key military insights from this conflict that Poland and NATO can build on for the future ⤵️
youtu.be/dufHcpHiG-Y
Lessons from the war in Ukraine
YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
youtu.be
December 5, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Looking inward: regional cooperation in Central Asia

🇰🇿🇰🇬🇹🇯🇹🇲🇺🇿Until 2017, cooperation in Central Asia without the involvement of external actors occurred only rarely and in isolated instances.

OSW's Daria Zielińska has more insight ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Looking inward: regional cooperation in Central Asia
From 15–17 November, the seventh consultative meeting of the five Central Asian leaders was held in Tashkent. During the meeting, they announced, among other initiatives, the ‘New Central Asia’ plan, ...
www.osw.waw.pl
December 4, 2025 at 2:13 PM