OSW - Centre for Eastern Studies
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osweng.bsky.social
OSW - Centre for Eastern Studies
@osweng.bsky.social
870 followers 9 following 330 posts
Warsaw-based think-tank focused on Russia, Eastern Europe, Caucasus, China, Central Europe, Balkans, Germany
https://youtube.com/@centreforeasternstudies
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➡️Up to April 12th, we’ll be following the political situation in Hungary🇭🇺 ahead of the elections.

We look at ⤵️
🔴the latest analysis of the polls
⚪️a deep dive into the Fidesz and Tisza parties
🟢an overview of the main events leading up to the election
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
OSW Monitor. Hungary election, no. 1
The parliamentary election scheduled for 12 April in Hungary is set to take place within a wholly new configuration of the political landscape. Fidesz, led by Viktor Orbán and the clear victor in the ...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 20, 2026 at 12:08 PM
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The party needs an enemy: China🇨🇳 and the conservatives’ victory in Japan🇯🇵

China’s pressure tactics against Prime Minister Takaichi have proved counterproductive, prompting some commentators to speculate that 🇨🇳 may adjust its course.

By OSW's Michał Bogusz ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
The party needs an enemy: China and the conservatives’ victory in Japan
The scale of the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) victory in Japan’s snap election to the House of Representatives (the lower house of parliament) was unprecedented in post-war Japanese history and to...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 19, 2026 at 1:31 PM
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A greater🇺🇸US presence in the Caucasus. Vice President Vance in🇦🇲Armenia and🇦🇿Azerbaijan

🔵It does not appear likely that a formal peace treaty will be signed soon. Nevertheless, peace has, in practice, already taken hold.

Wojciech Górecki has the details⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
A greater US presence in the Caucasus. Vice President Vance in Armenia and Azerbaijan
On 9–10 February, US Vice President J.D. Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Yerevan, he signed an agreement with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, ena...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 18, 2026 at 12:03 PM
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Russia - the last bastion of conservative values?

🔵We check if🇷🇺Russia is as conservative as it claims. We look at data on abortion, drug abuse, divorce and church attendance in Russia.

❓Is Russia more traditional than the "morally corrupt West"?🇺🇸🇪🇺🇬🇧
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOeb...
Russia - the last bastion of conservative values?
YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
www.youtube.com
February 17, 2026 at 8:58 AM
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🔵Turkey🇹🇷 and the EU🇪🇺: renewed efforts in a complex web of disputes

🔵The EU Commissioner’s visit may be regarded as a continuation of the gradual process of rebuilding political relations with Turkey.

➡️ OSW's Adam Michalski has the details ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Turkey and the EU: renewed efforts in a complex web of disputes
On 6 February 2026, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, arrived in Ankara, where she met the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fid...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 16, 2026 at 3:50 PM
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🔵Excessive dependence? The growing role of US LNG and oil in the EU market
🗨️The nature of the bloc’s dependence on US LNG remains markedly different from the dependence European countries have experienced with regard to Russian gas.

🔘By @agataloskot.bsky.social ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Excessive dependence? The growing role of US LNG and oil in the EU market
Since 2022, the EU has undergone a rapid transformation of its natural gas and crude oil import mix. Faced with Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, now in its fourth year, and the Russian-Europea...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 12, 2026 at 2:23 PM
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🔵The economies of the Baltic states: recession, stagnation and acceleration

Bartosz Chmielewski has the details on which of the three Baltic countries 🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪 has been outrunning its neighbours in economic growth over the past decade ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
The economies of the Baltic states: recession, stagnation and acceleration
The economies of the Baltic states have in recent years experienced a series of shocks, triggered by the global pandemic and the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine. Nearly four years of turbule...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 10, 2026 at 2:59 PM
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Germany 🇩🇪: new law on the protection of critical infrastructure

➡️The adopted regulations form part of a broader set of measures undertaken by Germany to strengthen protection against hybrid threats.
➡️
Michał Kędzierski & Kamil Frymark have the details ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Germany: new law on the protection of critical infrastructure
On 29 January, with the votes of the CDU/CSU–SPD coalition and the opposition AfD, the Bundestag adopted a framework law on the protection of critical infrastructure (the KRITIS umbrella law), impleme...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 10, 2026 at 2:22 PM
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🔵Ukrainian attacks on the CPC oil pipeline: outlook for Kazakhstan’s oil sector

As much as 80% of 🇰🇿 oil exports flow through the CPC. As a result of the Ukrainian attacks, Kazakhstan has incurred multi-million dollar losses.

🔵By @Daria Zielińska⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Ukrainian attacks on the CPC oil pipeline: outlook for Kazakhstan’s oil sector
Kazakhstan’s oil sector is facing a serious crisis due to reduced throughput of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), caused by Ukrainian drone attacks in November 2025 and January of this year. The ...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 9, 2026 at 2:47 PM
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📽️Our latest video looks at connected cars from China through the lens of the EU's cybersecurity.

🔵What do we know about the data these smartphones on wheels collect? And do they pose a security threat?

🔴We answer these and other questions ⤵️
youtu.be/HmKRCUc9AVU
Chinese connected cars: are they a security threat?
YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
youtu.be
February 6, 2026 at 9:57 AM
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🔵An uncertain future for Rosatom’s nuclear technology exports

🔵Despite Russia’s 🇷🇺 invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 in 2022, Rosatom, unlike many other Russian energy companies, has not faced significant Western sanctions.

➡️More insight by OSW's Filip Rudnik ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
An uncertain future for Rosatom’s nuclear technology exports
Despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Rosatom, unlike many other Russian energy companies, has not faced significant Western sanctions. This has enabled it to continue operating in the key are...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 5, 2026 at 10:52 AM
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Czech defence conglomerate CSG becomes the most valuable company in Central Europe

🇨🇿CSG has benefited from rising defence spending among NATO’s member states and from the supply of weapons and military equipment to🇺🇦Ukraine.

Krzysztof Dębiec has more⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Czech defence conglomerate CSG becomes the most valuable company in Central Europe
On 23 January, the Czech-based defence conglomerate Czechoslovak Group (CSG) made an exceptionally successful debut on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange. The company’s market value surged by 30% t...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 3, 2026 at 9:17 AM
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Hungary's🇭🇺MOL moves towards acquiring Russian stakes in 🇷🇸Serbia’s NIS

🛢️The completion of the transaction would mark the first case of Russian🇷🇺oil assets in Europe being sold under pressure from US sanctions.

Analysis by Jan Nowinowski⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
MOL moves towards acquiring Russian stakes in Serbia’s NIS
On 19 January, the Hungarian oil and gas company MOL announced that it had signed a binding heads of agreement with the Russian petrochemical company Gazprom Neft to purchase a 56.2% stake in Serbia’s...
www.osw.waw.pl
February 2, 2026 at 10:32 AM
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Central Asia - Can this region surrounded by powerful neighbours, such as🇷🇺Russia and🇨🇳China, integrate to become a new powerhouse?
🇰🇿🇰🇬🇹🇯🇹🇲🇺🇿
What does the future hold for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan?⤵️
youtu.be/MgoKdT_f5Fw
Central Asia integration - a new powerhouse?
YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
youtu.be
January 30, 2026 at 4:02 PM
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➡️A reserve tandem: German–Italian intergovernmental consultations

➡️Cooperation with Italy 🇮🇹 has resulted in Meloni supporting the EU–Mercosur free trade agreement, which is of key importance to Germany 🇩🇪

By OSW's Lidia Gibadło & Łukasz Maślanka⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
A reserve tandem: German–Italian intergovernmental consultations
On 23 January, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni took part in the 33rd German–Italian intergovernmental consultations in Rome. Merz was accompanied by te...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 30, 2026 at 10:01 AM
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🔵 The Great Russian Firewall: The Kremlin’s ultimate crackdown on internet freedom

🔵 Our analysts Maria Domańska & Katarzyna Chawryło provide a deep-dive on Russia’s 🇷🇺 internet ecosystem.

🔵 The full report⤵️
osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
The Great Russian Firewall
MAIN POINTS I. THE INTERNET AS AN ELEMENT OF SOCIAL LIFE IN RUSSIA II. THE LAST DOMAIN OF FREEDOM IS SHRINKING.. 3
osw.waw.pl
January 29, 2026 at 8:56 AM
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Seven lean years? Romania’s struggle with record high debt

🔵Despite the public finance crisis that has been intensifying for several years, the 🇷🇴 authorities only decided to undertake concrete corrective measures in the second half of 2025

More from Kamil Całus⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Seven lean years? Romania’s struggle with record high debt
Romania has been grappling with exceptionally high public debt since 2020. It was then that the budget deficit reached 9.3% of GDP, prompting the European Union to place the country under the Excessiv...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 27, 2026 at 8:07 AM
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The Fico–Trump meeting: Slovakia 🇸🇰 turns to US 🇺🇸 nuclear technologies

Despite having relied on radically anti-American rhetoric while in opposition, Fico’s party has, once in power, consistently deepened its ties with Washington.

By Krzysztof Dębiec ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
The Fico–Trump meeting: Slovakia turns to US nuclear technologies
On 17–18 January, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico paid a visit to the United States. On the first day, in Washington, he signed an intergovernmental agreement (IGA) on bilateral cooperation in civil...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 26, 2026 at 11:15 AM
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🔵Ukraine 🇺🇦: deepening crisis of the parliamentary majority

🔵Many SP members have become frustrated with the president’s inner circle for disregarding their input and imposing top-down decisions.

More insight by OSW's Marcin Jędrysiak ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Ukraine: deepening crisis of the parliamentary majority
On 13 January, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada failed to confirm Denys Shmyhal as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy – only 210 deputies voted in favour of his appointment, falling short of t...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 23, 2026 at 9:32 AM
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Bulgaria 🇧🇬: President Radev resigns

🔵Radev’s resignation is likely driven by his intention to establish his own party and contest the upcoming snap parliamentary elections, expected to take place in late March or early April.

🔵By Jan Nowinowski ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Bulgaria: President Radev resigns
On 19 January, in a special address, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev announced his resignation. Once the Constitutional Court formally approves the resignation, his duties will be assumed by the incum...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 22, 2026 at 3:01 PM
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🔵US-Denmark-Greenland: current state of play and future scenarios

➡️The issue of Greenland’s future is very likely to remain on the president’s agenda, sustaining a sense of uncertainty in Europe.

OSW's Piotr Szymański has the latest details and insight ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
US-Denmark-Greenland: current state of play and future scenarios
On 14 January, the United States, Denmark, and Greenland held trilateral consultations in Washington, attended by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and the foreign ministers o...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 21, 2026 at 12:13 PM
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🔵Europe compensates for losses in German exports

🔵The decline in German 🇩🇪 exports to China 🇨🇳 results from a permanent shift in competitive conditions and is unlikely to be reversed in the long term.

➡️More insight by OSW's Aleksandra Kozaczyńska ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Europe compensates for losses in German exports
According to a report by the German Economic Institute in Cologne (IW Köln), in the first three quarters of 2025 Germany’s exports of goods and services increased by 0.25% year on year, despite a decl...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 15, 2026 at 3:55 PM
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Iran 🇮🇷 on the brink of revolution and war

As the economic environment continues to deteriorate, public frustration is mounting, fuelling demands for a radical liberalisation of the system – in effect, its dismantling.

Details by Krzysztof Strachota⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Iran on the brink of revolution and war
Since 28 December 2025, Iran has witnessed nationwide, violent protests driven by social and political grievances. The unrest intensified on 8 January, when large-scale demonstrations were held in Teh...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 14, 2026 at 5:24 PM
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🔵Consequences of the Berlin 🇩🇪 blackout

➡️The method of attack and the choice of location indicate a high level of professionalism on the part of the saboteurs.

🔵More insight by OSW's Kamil Frymark ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
Consequences of the Berlin blackout
On 3 January, there was an attack on the power grid in Steglitz-Zehlendorf, one of Berlin’s southern districts. Following the arson of a cable bridge, around 45,000 households – approximately 100,000 ...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 13, 2026 at 12:39 PM
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🔵The Kremlin’s powerlessness: Russia’s response to the US operation in Venezuela
🔵The forcible removal of Maduro by the 🇺🇸 represents a reputational blow to 🇷🇺, as it has exposed its limited capacity to protect its partners.

By Miłosz Bartosiewicz ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
The Kremlin’s powerlessness: Russia’s response to the US operation in Venezuela
The US military operation in Venezuela on 3 January, which resulted in the capture of the Russia-aligned dictator Nicolás Maduro, took the Kremlin by surprise and prompted only a diplomatic response. ...
www.osw.waw.pl
January 12, 2026 at 2:41 PM