Nick Parr

@nickparr.bsky.social

520 followers 330 following 32 posts

Demographer. Former Professor at
Macquarie University, Sydney. Interested in population trends, population issues, births, deaths and migration, population maths and statistics.

Videos

Sociology 19%

Political science 19%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Pinned

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · 26d

Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries

My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries - Genus

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the below replacement level for a population without migration throughout Europe. The population growth implications of low fertility combined with non-zero migration...

genus.springeropen.com

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · 11h

Obituary for my long-time former demographer colleague Professor Farhat Yusuf.

Farhat Yusuf (1940-2025) iussp.org/en/farhat-yu...

Farhat Yusuf (1940-2025) | International Union for the Scientific Study of Population

iussp.org

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · 17d

A way of gaining perspective on the (lack of) imminence of population decrease is to find TFR that solves demographic balance =0 and compare this to actual
TFR.

Values of “IPRTFR” for 2019 ranged from 0.26 for Sweden to 2.83 for Bulgaria.

My new paper.
genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries - Genus

genus.springeropen.com

Reposted by Nick Parr

GENUS @genus.bsky.social · 26d

🆕 Fresh in GENUS: A novel look at how migration changes what “replacement fertility” really means for European populations - by @nickparr.bsky.social.

🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Jul 23

Completely bewildered by citation of my paper to back up text about a topic I have never written about.

a man with long hair and a beard holds a glass of milk

ALT: a man with long hair and a beard holds a glass of milk

media.tenor.com

Reposted by Nick Parr, Ilya Kashnitsky

GENUS @genus.bsky.social · Jul 16

Survival inequalities expand in DK by socioeconomic group. New paper by @cosmostrozza.bsky.social, @svigezzi.bsky.social, @juliacalla.bsky.social, @sandrsalek.bsky.social, @ikashnitsky.phd, find that almost 1/4 poor men vs 1/20 rich men die pre-retirement.

🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Socioeconomic inequalities in survival to retirement age in Denmark: a register-based analysis - Genus

Around the world, people are increasingly living to older ages. This challenges the sustainability of the pension systems. In Denmark, statutory retirement age increases gradually to account for chang...

genus.springeropen.com

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Jun 19

Plans to replace 2031 census in England and Wales set to be abandoned after backlash

Pleased to read this

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · May 29

????????!!!

Reposted by Nick Parr

GENUS @genus.bsky.social · May 7

👉 Check our new publication - by Li, Cheng, Liu & @emitanaka.org:

"Analysis of international life expectancies with manifold learning and neural networks"

🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Apr 30

www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

This article might interest those looking to link results
of Australia’s upcoming election to electorate demography.

The 150 ways Australia’s electorates are wildly different

Australia’s 150 federal electorates will be in the spotlight on Saturday. Here’s how they vary.

www.smh.com.au

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Mar 27

Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters
theconversation.com/global-popul...

Important discussion of threats to the compilation of accurate population data
and the importance
of having such data.

Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters

When certain groups of people are systematically undercounted, they become invisible to policymakers.

theconversation.com

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Mar 4

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Far right hijacking debate on population issues.

US natalist conference to host race-science promoters and eugenicists

Details emerge about Natal conference in Austin later this month, set to feature figures linked to far-right politics

www.theguardian.com

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Feb 4

I provided some comments for this article on projected population
spatial distribution for Australia www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

Why Sydney will keep its place as Australia’s biggest city

Predictions that Melbourne’s population would soon overtake Sydney’s were premature.

www.smh.com.au

Reposted by Nick Parr

Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · Jan 15

Happy "ask your mates at other universities to say something nice about your own university and vice versa in order to prop up the giant farce that is the completely unnecessary but highly profitable university "rankings" industry"-day, for all the simps that celebrate it.

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Jan 16

A quokka and Rottnest Island beach yesterday.

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Jan 10

I suspect this is sensationalist nonsense. It is a projection not a forecast apparently based on linear extrapolation with no mention of effect of immigration (hence children, grandchildren etc etc of immigrants) perpetuating some level of population floor.

Reposted by Nick Parr

Vegard Skirbekk @vegardskirbekk.bsky.social · Dec 16

Low fertility may lower conflict potential in the longer term www.businessinsider.com/asia-countri...

Plummeting fertility rates are making Asian countries worry about running out of soldiers

Declining fertility rates in South Korea, Japan, and China are making the countries think hard about how best to maintain their militaries.

www.businessinsider.com

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Dec 12

Components of population growth for Australia.
The population grew by 2.1% in the year to 30 June 2024

Reposted by Nick Parr

Alice Reid @amrcampop.bsky.social · Dec 5

Campop blog #25: In today's blog Leigh Shaw-Taylor uses local case studies to illustrate the surprising complexity of English occupational structure in the early 18th century, before the industrial revolution
@camunicampop.bsky.social
www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk/blog/2024/12...

The Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, CambridgeWas the economy backward before the Industrial Revolution? « Top of the Campops: 60 things you didn't know about famil...

www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk

Reposted by Nick Parr

Michael Clemens @mclem.org · Dec 5

Causes death for children in the United States of America.

www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/b...

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Dec 4

Which TFRs would prevent population decrease in 2024 if
deaths and net migration
are as per 2024 US census bureau estimates?

China 1.27 (vs 1.23 for 2024)
Japan 2.27 (vs 1.40)
South Korea 0.81 (vs 0.68)
Italy 1.40 (vs 1.26)

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Dec 2

www.planning.nsw.gov.au/data-and-ins...
The population of New South Wales is projected to increase from 8.1 million in 2021 to
10.1 million in 2041, despite
a low assumed fertility rate.

The growth may be seen as the product of fertility being above the MIGRATION-ADJUSTED replacement level.

Population projections | Planning

Our population projections provide a strong foundation on which to base planning for the future of NSW.

www.planning.nsw.gov.au

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Dec 2

www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

I provided comment for this
article on projected population growth for New South Wales

Will your suburb shrink or grow? These charts have the answer

Sydney will add about 1 million people by 2041. Here’s where they’ll end up.

www.smh.com.au

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Nov 25

Yes I remember examples from when my kids were in day care. There have also been increases in childlessness (although some of this is just more overseas students, working holidaymakers etc getting counted in the population).

Nick Parr @nickparr.bsky.social · Nov 25

theconversation.com/australia-in...
Recommended. A nicely balanced discussion of the low birth rate issue (panic?) in Australia by Edith Gray.

Australia in a baby bust? It’s not that simple – and a panic won’t help

What real issue does a low birth rate pose, and for whom?

theconversation.com

Reposted by Mimí Sheller, Nick Parr

Aurélie Méjean @aureliemejean.bsky.social · Nov 22

The evidence gathered from 127 peer reviewed papers shows that climate change impacts increase economic inequalities and disproportionately affect the poor, both globally and within countries on all continents
3/10