NFL Scenarios
@nflplayoffscenarios.com
NFL tiebreaking expert.
Author of https://NFLPlayoffScenarios.com
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All professional looking images are by @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social
Author of https://NFLPlayoffScenarios.com
Keep the site ad-free by supporting the Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/cw/TiebreakerExperts
All professional looking images are by @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social
And with 272 games in the books, it's my time to sign off. Just want to shout out some people first (links from images are in alt text). @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social @ivanurena.bsky.social @kylestan.bsky.social @ray.playoffpredictors.com
January 5, 2026 at 4:57 AM
And with 272 games in the books, it's my time to sign off. Just want to shout out some people first (links from images are in alt text). @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social @ivanurena.bsky.social @kylestan.bsky.social @ray.playoffpredictors.com
The final post of the season is up. It is the season summary, and contains the bracket (scores & times will be updated as the games complete), and draft order (order will be updated as teams exit the playoffs). nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...
2025 Season Summary
Clinching & Elimination scenarios, tiebreakers, seeding, and more!
nflplayoffscenarios.com
January 5, 2026 at 4:45 AM
The final post of the season is up. It is the season summary, and contains the bracket (scores & times will be updated as the games complete), and draft order (order will be updated as teams exit the playoffs). nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...
The Final AFC Playoff Picture
January 5, 2026 at 4:40 AM
The Final AFC Playoff Picture
With the BAL loss, BAL has been eliminated from playoff contention.
January 5, 2026 at 4:38 AM
With the BAL loss, BAL has been eliminated from playoff contention.
With the PIT win, PIT has clinched the AFC North Division Title and the 4 seed. They will host HOU on Wildcard Weekend.
January 5, 2026 at 4:35 AM
With the PIT win, PIT has clinched the AFC North Division Title and the 4 seed. They will host HOU on Wildcard Weekend.
The NFC playoff field:
January 5, 2026 at 12:38 AM
The NFC playoff field:
With the DEN win, the AFC playoffs are (mostly) set:
1) DEN - 1st round bye
7) LAC @ 2) NE
6) BUF @ 3) JAX
5) HOU @ 4) BAL/PIT winner
1) DEN - 1st round bye
7) LAC @ 2) NE
6) BUF @ 3) JAX
5) HOU @ 4) BAL/PIT winner
January 5, 2026 at 12:36 AM
With the DEN win, the AFC playoffs are (mostly) set:
1) DEN - 1st round bye
7) LAC @ 2) NE
6) BUF @ 3) JAX
5) HOU @ 4) BAL/PIT winner
1) DEN - 1st round bye
7) LAC @ 2) NE
6) BUF @ 3) JAX
5) HOU @ 4) BAL/PIT winner
With the DEN win, DEN has clinched a first round bye and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
January 5, 2026 at 12:35 AM
With the DEN win, DEN has clinched a first round bye and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
With the PHI loss, PHI is locked into the 3 seed and will host SF in wildcard weekend.
January 5, 2026 at 12:28 AM
With the PHI loss, PHI is locked into the 3 seed and will host SF in wildcard weekend.
With the PHI loss, CHI is locked into the 2 seed and will host GB in wildcard weekend.
January 5, 2026 at 12:28 AM
With the PHI loss, CHI is locked into the 2 seed and will host GB in wildcard weekend.
With the LAR win, SF is locked into the 6 seed.
January 5, 2026 at 12:20 AM
With the LAR win, SF is locked into the 6 seed.
With the LAR win, LAR is locked to the 5 seed. They will travel to CAR in wildcard weekend.
January 5, 2026 at 12:19 AM
With the LAR win, LAR is locked to the 5 seed. They will travel to CAR in wildcard weekend.
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
Since 1978, TB has been eliminated all 5 times it has needed help in the final week to make the postseason (1998, 2008, 2010, 2016, 2025). During that span, only the Raiders have been eliminated more times when needing help in the final week without making the playoffs on any of those occasions (6).
With the ATL win, TB has been eliminated from playoff contention.
January 4, 2026 at 10:28 PM
Since 1978, TB has been eliminated all 5 times it has needed help in the final week to make the postseason (1998, 2008, 2010, 2016, 2025). During that span, only the Raiders have been eliminated more times when needing help in the final week without making the playoffs on any of those occasions (6).
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
AFC and NFC Seeding Scenarios (Updated after Sunday 1:00pm games):
January 4, 2026 at 9:54 PM
AFC and NFC Seeding Scenarios (Updated after Sunday 1:00pm games):
With the ATL win, CAR has clinched the NFC South division title and the 4 seed. (Fixed from last post)
January 4, 2026 at 9:16 PM
With the ATL win, CAR has clinched the NFC South division title and the 4 seed. (Fixed from last post)
With the HOU win, HOU is locked into the 5 seed and will visit the winner of the PIT/BAL game in the first round of the playoffs.
January 4, 2026 at 9:14 PM
With the HOU win, HOU is locked into the 5 seed and will visit the winner of the PIT/BAL game in the first round of the playoffs.
With the ATL win, TB has been eliminated from playoff contention.
January 4, 2026 at 9:08 PM
With the ATL win, TB has been eliminated from playoff contention.
With the NYG win, LV has clinched the 2026 #1 overall draft pick.
January 4, 2026 at 9:03 PM
With the NYG win, LV has clinched the 2026 #1 overall draft pick.
With the JAX win, JAX has clinched the AFC South Division Title.
January 4, 2026 at 8:48 PM
With the JAX win, JAX has clinched the AFC South Division Title.
Follow the rest of the regular season scenarios here! nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...
Live Week 18 2025 NFL Playoff Picture
Clinching & Elimination scenarios, tiebreakers, seeding, and more!
nflplayoffscenarios.com
January 4, 2026 at 5:53 PM
Follow the rest of the regular season scenarios here! nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...
Happy final scenario day! What to watch for in the early slate:
1) JAX clinches the AFC South division title with a win/tie OR HOU loss
2) HOU clinches the AFC South division title (and 3 seed) with a win + JAX loss
3) CAR clinches the NFC South division title (and 4 seed) with ATL win
1) JAX clinches the AFC South division title with a win/tie OR HOU loss
2) HOU clinches the AFC South division title (and 3 seed) with a win + JAX loss
3) CAR clinches the NFC South division title (and 4 seed) with ATL win
January 4, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Happy final scenario day! What to watch for in the early slate:
1) JAX clinches the AFC South division title with a win/tie OR HOU loss
2) HOU clinches the AFC South division title (and 3 seed) with a win + JAX loss
3) CAR clinches the NFC South division title (and 4 seed) with ATL win
1) JAX clinches the AFC South division title with a win/tie OR HOU loss
2) HOU clinches the AFC South division title (and 3 seed) with a win + JAX loss
3) CAR clinches the NFC South division title (and 4 seed) with ATL win
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
CIN needed a win + CLE loss + PIT win (even though PIT was eliminated) to create a 3-way tie at 8-8 (CIN would win on best H2H, 3-1 over CLE 2-2, PIT 1-3). Otherwise, CLE would win the division. With PIT’s loss on Saturday of the final weekend, CLE won the AFC Central and CIN was eliminated (2 of 2)
January 4, 2026 at 5:36 AM
CIN needed a win + CLE loss + PIT win (even though PIT was eliminated) to create a 3-way tie at 8-8 (CIN would win on best H2H, 3-1 over CLE 2-2, PIT 1-3). Otherwise, CLE would win the division. With PIT’s loss on Saturday of the final weekend, CLE won the AFC Central and CIN was eliminated (2 of 2)
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
Re: CAR/TB/ATL scenario: Another example of two division teams fighting for a playoff spot in the season’s final week that would have their playoff hopes decided by a division rival that was already eliminated was CLE/CIN/PIT in 1985….(1 of 2)
Once, kindof. Same situation, but chronologically backwards. In the final week of 1988, LAR beat SF to tie at 10-6. NO defeated ATL earlier in the day, giving SF the division on 3-way head-to-head. If NO had lost, LAR would have won the division on common games. (research from @kylestan.bsky.social)
dumb question: has a battle between 2 teams for one playoff spot ever come down to a game between 2 completely different teams before?
January 4, 2026 at 5:36 AM
Re: CAR/TB/ATL scenario: Another example of two division teams fighting for a playoff spot in the season’s final week that would have their playoff hopes decided by a division rival that was already eliminated was CLE/CIN/PIT in 1985….(1 of 2)
With the SEA win, SEA has clinched the NFC West division title, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs
January 4, 2026 at 3:47 AM
With the SEA win, SEA has clinched the NFC West division title, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs
Once, kindof. Same situation, but chronologically backwards. In the final week of 1988, LAR beat SF to tie at 10-6. NO defeated ATL earlier in the day, giving SF the division on 3-way head-to-head. If NO had lost, LAR would have won the division on common games. (research from @kylestan.bsky.social)
dumb question: has a battle between 2 teams for one playoff spot ever come down to a game between 2 completely different teams before?
January 4, 2026 at 2:32 AM
Once, kindof. Same situation, but chronologically backwards. In the final week of 1988, LAR beat SF to tie at 10-6. NO defeated ATL earlier in the day, giving SF the division on 3-way head-to-head. If NO had lost, LAR would have won the division on common games. (research from @kylestan.bsky.social)