Insightful new study on Colorado’s West Slope Basins! Using a novel model, it shows how small climate shifts may lead to a drier regime where extreme droughts become routine, impacting local water needs and downstream deliveries to Lake Powell.
multisectordynamics.org/2024/11/14/e...

Researchers have developed an uncertainty-informed method to select CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) for impact modeling. With CMIP6’s large model archive, selecting models that preserve the full uncertainty range in temperature, precipitation, and more is crucial.
multisectordynamics.org?p=13071

Water management (WM) in Texas plays a key role in shaping hydrological drought dynamics. A new study shows WM reduces drought frequency but increases duration and severity in many areas. Impacts vary by season, with attenuation in summer and intensification in winter/spring.

New study reveals how varying population projections can dramatically affect future urban land expansion in the US, even under the same global constraints (SSPs). Results show localized demographic info leads to more extensive urban sprawl, posing pressures on rural areas.

Introducing the FRNSIC framework ("forensic")! 🌍🔍 This new scenario discovery tool dives deep into diverse outcomes, helping identify key dynamics and stakeholder impacts across systems. Applied to the Upper Colorado River Basin, it explores drought storylines and aids future adaptation planning

Global ag markets rely on aggregate supply, not individual countries. New weather datasets (GMFD, ERA5-Land) help estimate weather-induced shocks on production and prices. For US corn and soybeans, capturing daily temperature extremes proves crucial.

As Texas decarbonizes, widespread adoption of electric heat pumps for heating could spike winter electricity demand. Combined with rising summer cooling needs due to climate change, this raises uncertainty in peak demand patterns and grid reliability.

US cities rely on civil infrastructure to access food, energy, and water (FEW) from distant watersheds. In 2017, virtual water transfers via crops and electricity to major cities were 53B & 8B m³, respectively, surpassing physical water transfers. Highways are key for FEW imports.

The 2008-2015 Colorado Basin drought in Texas highlights multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses. Despite severe conditions, advanced economy and water infrastructure mitigated economic and societal impacts. Understanding these dynamics aids future planning.

New research develops a synthetic multi-risk test case to assess decision-making under deep uncertainty, using the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk framework. This approach reveals non-linear effects of multi-risk interactions, crucial for developing effective adaptive strategies.

Hydrological extremes like droughts and floods cause complex, cascading impacts across systems. Current decision-making often overlooks these interdependencies. The paper led by Mariana de Brito calls for methodological pluralism to better understand and adapt to these risks.

New research from Brian O'Neill and authors highlights the need for shared community scenarios focused on outcomes for human well-being and resilience, rather than just drivers of change. This approach can enhance the comparability of studies and improve risk assessments across sectors.

The relevant paper of this week unveils a flood risk model, merging hazard, exposure, and vulnerability considerations, crucial for robust flood projections. Through a practical case study, it sheds light on key uncertainties and offers a methodology for flood risk assessment

Evaluating E3SM and CESM models' performance in simulating climate variability, the paper underscores improvements in global and extratropical modes across successive model versions.
multisectordynamics.org/2024/04/24/m...

Investigating the long-term effects of population and GDP changes on the human-Earth system reveals compounding uncertainties, magnifying tail risks across sectors.
multisectordynamics.org/2024/04/10/c...

New research integrates adaptive farmer agents into MOSART-WM hydrological model, capturing dynamic feedbacks between water availability, reservoir management, and farmer irrigated crop area adaptation. Results suggest US water shortages could drop by 42% with farmer adaptation.

Graham et al. delve into market integration's uncertainty impact on virtual water trading and regional water demands. Virtual water trading could increase by over 500% by 2100. Check out the findings:

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Shout out to Jing Gao's and Melissa Bukovsky's work "Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century"
multisectordynamics.org/2024/03/05/u...

Urban extensification could displace agricultural lands, leading to compromised crop production and reduced yields. Incorporate dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework to examine the implications of future land-use transitions globally.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...