Michael Paarlberg
@mpaarlberg.bsky.social
Associate professor of political science, Virginia Commonwealth University. Senior Fellow, Center for International Policy. Assoc. Fellow, Institute for Policy Studies. Formerly The Guardian & Latin America advisor, Bernie Sanders. 교포
michaelpaarlberg.org
michaelpaarlberg.org
Peru is in many ways the extreme opposite of the US, with our imperial executive, neutered Congress, and total presidential impunity for corruption and other crimes. Peru's model of impeach everyone and send them to jail is...refreshing, but not an aspirational model either.
February 18, 2026 at 5:59 PM
Peru is in many ways the extreme opposite of the US, with our imperial executive, neutered Congress, and total presidential impunity for corruption and other crimes. Peru's model of impeach everyone and send them to jail is...refreshing, but not an aspirational model either.
“In 2025, Cubans were the third-largest asylum-seeking nationality worldwide”
You would think that an administration so focused on restricting migration would anticipate the impact that economically strangling an already desperate population will have.
You would think that an administration so focused on restricting migration would anticipate the impact that economically strangling an already desperate population will have.
Out of oil and in pain
While the world is focused on whether the Cuban government will survive, it is critically important to understand what is happening to ordinary people on the island
english.elpais.com
February 17, 2026 at 4:56 PM
“In 2025, Cubans were the third-largest asylum-seeking nationality worldwide”
You would think that an administration so focused on restricting migration would anticipate the impact that economically strangling an already desperate population will have.
You would think that an administration so focused on restricting migration would anticipate the impact that economically strangling an already desperate population will have.
I really don’t understand how anyone can be a free market capitalist and have any experience at all with the US healthcare system. Particularly if you have or are caring for someone with a chronic illness.
February 14, 2026 at 6:57 PM
I really don’t understand how anyone can be a free market capitalist and have any experience at all with the US healthcare system. Particularly if you have or are caring for someone with a chronic illness.
There’s a “boy who cried wolf” hazard of the Cuban government’s insistence on the word bloqueo to mean embargo. The US fully blockaded the island during the 1962 missile crisis, and is now blockading oil shipments. But under the embargo, other countries trade with Cuba, just not the US.
February 13, 2026 at 9:56 PM
There’s a “boy who cried wolf” hazard of the Cuban government’s insistence on the word bloqueo to mean embargo. The US fully blockaded the island during the 1962 missile crisis, and is now blockading oil shipments. But under the embargo, other countries trade with Cuba, just not the US.
Reposted by Michael Paarlberg
@mpaarlberg.bsky.social's new piece in @us.theconversation.com:
"...Diaspora activists may advocate positions that resonate with Western audiences but find little support among those living under authoritarian rule"
theconversation.com/exiled-irani...
"...Diaspora activists may advocate positions that resonate with Western audiences but find little support among those living under authoritarian rule"
theconversation.com/exiled-irani...
Exiled Iranians and Venezuelans may well support regime change – but diasporas don’t always reflect the politics back home
Diasporas are often treated by media and policymakers as monolithic blocs, but the reality is more complicated.
theconversation.com
February 13, 2026 at 6:35 PM
@mpaarlberg.bsky.social's new piece in @us.theconversation.com:
"...Diaspora activists may advocate positions that resonate with Western audiences but find little support among those living under authoritarian rule"
theconversation.com/exiled-irani...
"...Diaspora activists may advocate positions that resonate with Western audiences but find little support among those living under authoritarian rule"
theconversation.com/exiled-irani...
Chilean secret police agent who helped carry out the assassination of ex ambassador Orlando Letelier and Ronni Moffitt was just arrested by ICE, to the surprise of everyone in Chile. Given who is the incoming president of Chile, I worry there’s a deal for immunity after he’s deported.
The secrets kept by Armando Fernández Larios, former Pinochet agent arrested by ICE
Wanted in Chile for crimes committed during the dictatorship, he was convicted in the US in 1987 for the 1976 assassination in Washington DC of Orlando Letelier and his young assistant Ronni Moffitt
english.elpais.com
February 13, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Chilean secret police agent who helped carry out the assassination of ex ambassador Orlando Letelier and Ronni Moffitt was just arrested by ICE, to the surprise of everyone in Chile. Given who is the incoming president of Chile, I worry there’s a deal for immunity after he’s deported.
Now Bukele is counting on Trump to bail him out just like he did Milei. Some of us told the IMF, Treasury, and State Dept that this was going to happen if you gave El Salvador a $1.4 billion loan. Like a whole bunch of times.
Bitcoin Rout Exposes Bukele’s Gamble and Hits El Salvador Debt
Bitcoin’s crash has hit few places as hard as El Salvador, exposing the risks of President Nayib Bukele’s high-stakes embrace of crypto and whipsawing the country’s debt markets.
www.bloomberg.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:24 PM
Now Bukele is counting on Trump to bail him out just like he did Milei. Some of us told the IMF, Treasury, and State Dept that this was going to happen if you gave El Salvador a $1.4 billion loan. Like a whole bunch of times.
Can exiles overthrow dictators? Usually not. I wrote a piece for @us.theconversation.com about why - diaspora communities are often divided, politically distinct from the home country, and can be weaponized by autocratic governments.
Exiled Iranians and Venezuelans may well support regime change – but diasporas don’t always reflect the politics back home
Diasporas are often treated by media and policymakers as monolithic blocs, but the reality is more complicated.
theconversation.com
February 12, 2026 at 1:58 PM
Can exiles overthrow dictators? Usually not. I wrote a piece for @us.theconversation.com about why - diaspora communities are often divided, politically distinct from the home country, and can be weaponized by autocratic governments.
The Newsmax interview with de facto head of Venezuela’s National Assembly Jorge Rodriguez and brother to de facto president Delcy is “tragicomic, but revealing,” I tell @theguardian.com. Keeping the oil flowing - or the illusion of it - is their only way to remain in Trump’s good graces and in power
Venezuela welcomes Trump-loving US TV channel in ‘marriage of convenience’
Newsmax, granted major access as the first foreign outlet admitted after the US strike, hailed Trump as a ‘liberator’
www.theguardian.com
February 10, 2026 at 9:38 PM
The Newsmax interview with de facto head of Venezuela’s National Assembly Jorge Rodriguez and brother to de facto president Delcy is “tragicomic, but revealing,” I tell @theguardian.com. Keeping the oil flowing - or the illusion of it - is their only way to remain in Trump’s good graces and in power
This makes it sound like depersonalized metadata but it’s absolutely possible to do this for individuals. I teach my students web scraping and sentiment analysis using Reddit, and point out if I can do this for these posts, I and anyone can do this for your posts.
⚠️ ICE is now utilizing advanced social media monitoring to perform “sentiment analysis.” By scraping TikTok and other platforms, they can monitor the emotional and political temperature of entire geographic areas, identifying resistance hot spots. trib.al/DlI0naT
How TikTok 2.0 Became a Weapon for ICE
In just one week, the company has gone from being Gen Z’s preferred social media platform to a tool for spying on Americans and the suppression of information.
trib.al
February 10, 2026 at 5:45 PM
This makes it sound like depersonalized metadata but it’s absolutely possible to do this for individuals. I teach my students web scraping and sentiment analysis using Reddit, and point out if I can do this for these posts, I and anyone can do this for your posts.
It’s wild that we not only accept insider trading now, we rely on it to decipher the machinations of a government that is ostensibly accountable to us
February 9, 2026 at 7:27 PM
It’s wild that we not only accept insider trading now, we rely on it to decipher the machinations of a government that is ostensibly accountable to us
In Latin American politics course, for my class on Puerto Rico, I assign a NYT profile of Bad Bunny with Nelson Denis’ War Against All Puerto Ricans, open with BB’s La Romana, and end with Calle 13’s Latinoamérica, which I use to close out the course.
Calle 13 - Latinoamérica (NEW English Subtitles)
YouTube video by Ricardo Alarco
youtu.be
February 9, 2026 at 4:28 PM
In Latin American politics course, for my class on Puerto Rico, I assign a NYT profile of Bad Bunny with Nelson Denis’ War Against All Puerto Ricans, open with BB’s La Romana, and end with Calle 13’s Latinoamérica, which I use to close out the course.
“There were children in Dilley who were so distraught they cut themselves or talked about suicide…Moms told me that their kids had lost their appetites after finding worms and mold on their food”
NEW: ProPublica went inside the detention center for immigrant families in Dilley, Texas.
Children held there told us about the anguish of being ripped from their lives in the United States and the fear of what comes next.
Children held there told us about the anguish of being ripped from their lives in the United States and the fear of what comes next.
The Kids Trump Sent to ICE’s Dilley Detention Center
ProPublica went inside the immigrant detention center for families in Dilley, Texas. Children held there told us about the anguish of being ripped from their lives in the United States and the fear of...
www.propublica.org
February 9, 2026 at 2:44 PM
“There were children in Dilley who were so distraught they cut themselves or talked about suicide…Moms told me that their kids had lost their appetites after finding worms and mold on their food”
Reposted by Michael Paarlberg
When I worked for Reason magazine during Trump's rise to power in 2016, I was explicitly forbidden by the editor in chief from writing about Trump's racism, or the violence and racism at his rallies.
It was a "sideshow," I was told.
It was a "sideshow," I was told.
February 9, 2026 at 2:10 PM
When I worked for Reason magazine during Trump's rise to power in 2016, I was explicitly forbidden by the editor in chief from writing about Trump's racism, or the violence and racism at his rallies.
It was a "sideshow," I was told.
It was a "sideshow," I was told.
I wonder what the reaction would have been if BTS had been the Super Bowl halftime show and they sang mostly in Korean. I suspect MAGA would have been less triggered. Something about Spanish, sung by a US citizen, is uniquely upsetting to them.
February 9, 2026 at 5:01 AM
I wonder what the reaction would have been if BTS had been the Super Bowl halftime show and they sang mostly in Korean. I suspect MAGA would have been less triggered. Something about Spanish, sung by a US citizen, is uniquely upsetting to them.
Some of these workers are in war zones. This is totally nuts.
Former Washington Post journalists have launched a GoFundMe to help repatriate fired staff members who are effectively stranded in foreign countries.
One of the world's richest men didn’t even ensure they got home.
Donate here: www.gofundme.com/f/support-fo...
One of the world's richest men didn’t even ensure they got home.
Donate here: www.gofundme.com/f/support-fo...
February 8, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Some of these workers are in war zones. This is totally nuts.
Seems the only places where Gramsci is taken seriously today are Canary Wharf and Wall Street
This is bleak: Jes Staley, currently CEO of Barclays, reassuring Epstein that popular revolt against financial elites is unlikely because capitalism and pop culture have defanged social movements, leaving people more invested in consumption than justice.
February 8, 2026 at 8:27 PM
Seems the only places where Gramsci is taken seriously today are Canary Wharf and Wall Street
In another era, an opposition leader facing a corrupt authoritarian puppet regime, ruling on behalf of a foreign power stealing that country’s resources, might rally the people with a nationalist and anti-imperialist message, not try to curry favor with the imperialists
She actually thought when she gave Trump her medal that he was going to hold elections.
February 7, 2026 at 9:38 PM
In another era, an opposition leader facing a corrupt authoritarian puppet regime, ruling on behalf of a foreign power stealing that country’s resources, might rally the people with a nationalist and anti-imperialist message, not try to curry favor with the imperialists
Wonder how Trump feels about his friend Bukele making millions by laundering money from PDVSA to help the Maduro government in Venezuela evade US sanctions?
El fiscal de El Salvador congela una investigación por lavado de dinero de la venta de petróleo venezolano que salpica a Nayib Bukele
El presidente recibió, según investigaciones de la Fiscalía, cerca de 3,3 millones de dólares procedentes de las compañías relacionadas con el consorcio Alba Petróleos. “¿Qué empresa no recibió dinero...
elpais.com
February 7, 2026 at 8:55 PM
Wonder how Trump feels about his friend Bukele making millions by laundering money from PDVSA to help the Maduro government in Venezuela evade US sanctions?
“You all talk about looksmaxxing, right? How about you try brainsmaxxing?”
— me, connecting with my students
— me, connecting with my students
February 7, 2026 at 8:02 PM
“You all talk about looksmaxxing, right? How about you try brainsmaxxing?”
— me, connecting with my students
— me, connecting with my students
Reposted by Michael Paarlberg
Was driving my kids to school and the first thing on the radio was reporting about Trump's video depicting the Obamas as apes and I think many people still don't fully appreciate what it means to have to raise Black children in a country where the president is so brazenly and consistently racist
February 6, 2026 at 5:44 PM
Was driving my kids to school and the first thing on the radio was reporting about Trump's video depicting the Obamas as apes and I think many people still don't fully appreciate what it means to have to raise Black children in a country where the president is so brazenly and consistently racist
Just a reminder that it was never about drugs
AP obtains documents showing Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodríguez has been on DEA's radar for years
The Associated Press has learned that Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela's acting president, has surfaced in nearly a dozen DEA investigations, several of which remain ongoing.
apnews.com
February 6, 2026 at 4:13 PM
Just a reminder that it was never about drugs
It’s being portrayed as a gaffe or a bit, but insulting religious Republicans to their faces, at the national prayer breakfast, is a power move
Trump: "Mike Johnson is a very religious person. He does not hide it. He'll say to me sometimes at lunch, 'Sir, may we pray.' I'll say, 'Excuse me? We're having lunch.'"
February 6, 2026 at 4:11 PM
It’s being portrayed as a gaffe or a bit, but insulting religious Republicans to their faces, at the national prayer breakfast, is a power move
A president who has described himself as “not religious,” along with Trump, who has publicly mused that he might be going to hell, may be giveaways that your breakfast isn’t really about faith
Organizers of the National Prayer Breakfast invite Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez, the dictator of El Salvador, best know for his torture camps and friendly relations with drug cartels, as a featured speaker. The invitation is a good demonstration of the political values of Christian Nationalists.
February 6, 2026 at 1:43 PM
A president who has described himself as “not religious,” along with Trump, who has publicly mused that he might be going to hell, may be giveaways that your breakfast isn’t really about faith
No one respects Díaz-Canel. He’s not a Castro. He has no charisma. Cubans openly mock him for being stupid and living like a king. He’s best known for the 2021 crackdown and building luxury hotels that sit empty. Now he’s going to start rationing after cutting people’s rations?
* CUBA SAYS IT IS DEVELOPING CONTINGENCY PLAN TO DEAL WITH FUEL SHORTAGES, DETAILS TO BE RELEASED OVER THE NEXT WEEK - DIAZ-CANEL
@reuters.com
@reuters.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:42 PM
No one respects Díaz-Canel. He’s not a Castro. He has no charisma. Cubans openly mock him for being stupid and living like a king. He’s best known for the 2021 crackdown and building luxury hotels that sit empty. Now he’s going to start rationing after cutting people’s rations?