Michael Paarlberg
@mpaarlberg.bsky.social
Associate professor of political science, Virginia Commonwealth University. Senior Fellow, Center for International Policy. Assoc. Fellow, Institute for Policy Studies. Formerly The Guardian & Latin America advisor, Bernie Sanders. 교포
michaelpaarlberg.org
michaelpaarlberg.org
Comparing 🇵🇦 and 🇻🇪: “The Panamanian Defense Forces (PDF) was already fragmented and divided before the invasion. I mean, people forget that there had been a coup attempt against Noriega in October, just two months before Operation Just Cause” - Orlando Pérez
Invading Panama and deposing Noriega in 1989 was easy, right?
Comparisons to potential action in Venezuela fall apart and furthermore, we took the wrong lessons from 35 years ago anyway
responsiblestatecraft.org
November 10, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Comparing 🇵🇦 and 🇻🇪: “The Panamanian Defense Forces (PDF) was already fragmented and divided before the invasion. I mean, people forget that there had been a coup attempt against Noriega in October, just two months before Operation Just Cause” - Orlando Pérez
Ctrl-F "unions" not found
Opinion | This Is What a Good Job Looks Like
www.nytimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Ctrl-F "unions" not found
I’ve been waiting to hear a step-by-step scenario for how sanctions, blowing up boats, or even assassinating Maduro leads to a democratic regime in Venezuela. It’s like the old South Park gnome bit. 1. Get rid of Maduro ➡️ 2. ??? ➡️ 3. Democracy!
November 10, 2025 at 2:57 PM
I’ve been waiting to hear a step-by-step scenario for how sanctions, blowing up boats, or even assassinating Maduro leads to a democratic regime in Venezuela. It’s like the old South Park gnome bit. 1. Get rid of Maduro ➡️ 2. ??? ➡️ 3. Democracy!
It’s depressing that the online discourse about 🇻🇪 demands that you fall into the camp of either “sanctions are the sole cause of the economic collapse” or “Maduro is the sole cause, sanctions don’t matter (but we should maintain them anyway).” Economic outcomes are multicausal!
November 9, 2025 at 7:42 PM
It’s depressing that the online discourse about 🇻🇪 demands that you fall into the camp of either “sanctions are the sole cause of the economic collapse” or “Maduro is the sole cause, sanctions don’t matter (but we should maintain them anyway).” Economic outcomes are multicausal!
If true, this would be very similar to the amnesty deals that convinced Latin America’s right wing military dictators to step down in the 1980s. It’s the most proven model for democratic transitions, and more effective than bounties or CIA plots.
#BREAKING | Venezuelan ruler Nicolás Maduro is open to stepping down if the U.S. grants amnesty, removes the $25M bounty, and ensures safe exile, sources tell The Atlantic.
The Global Eye
#BREAKING | Venezuelan ruler Nicolás Maduro is open to stepping down if the U.S. grants amnesty, removes the $25M bounty, and ensures safe exile, sources tell The Atlantic.
The Global Eye | Subscrib...
t.me
November 9, 2025 at 4:20 PM
If true, this would be very similar to the amnesty deals that convinced Latin America’s right wing military dictators to step down in the 1980s. It’s the most proven model for democratic transitions, and more effective than bounties or CIA plots.
To paraphrase the late Robert Fitch, vulgar imperialism explains 99% of the world www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
November 5, 2025 at 4:39 PM
To paraphrase the late Robert Fitch, vulgar imperialism explains 99% of the world www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Trump is clearly preparing to ramp up to air strikes on military targets in Venezuela, counting on this to scare the military into carrying out a palace coup on Maduro to avoid a full invasion. The problem is everyone knows Trump won’t follow up with boots on the ground, so it’s an empty threat.
November 4, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Trump is clearly preparing to ramp up to air strikes on military targets in Venezuela, counting on this to scare the military into carrying out a palace coup on Maduro to avoid a full invasion. The problem is everyone knows Trump won’t follow up with boots on the ground, so it’s an empty threat.
Who knows if she really believes this, but she knows what she needs to say to maintain Trump’s favor.
November 4, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Who knows if she really believes this, but she knows what she needs to say to maintain Trump’s favor.
It’s even more lopsided when it comes to a military invasion of Venezuela: 55% opposed vs. 15% support. Even more Republicans oppose rather than support invasion.
November 2, 2025 at 11:28 PM
It’s even more lopsided when it comes to a military invasion of Venezuela: 55% opposed vs. 15% support. Even more Republicans oppose rather than support invasion.
Good thing there’s no chances of any insider trading here
Donald Trump’s Truth Social Is Launching a Polymarket Competitor
As crypto-based prediction services attract a flood of attention and capital, the US president’s social media platform has announced plans to muscle in.
www.wired.com
October 31, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Good thing there’s no chances of any insider trading here
Ok we’re definitely going to bomb Venezuela now
"Fed prosecutors expanded their probe into #Epstein 's sex crimes in 2007 to include potential charges of $ laundering, effort that includes outreach to 1 of his most important clients per docs, emails"
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
Jeffrey Epstein Went to War Over Money Laundering Probe in 2007 Sex Case
Federal prosecutors opened a financial-crimes investigation into Jeffrey Epstein in 2007 amid their larger sex-trafficking probe. The financier and his legal team waged a war against them, his emails ...
www.bloomberg.com
October 31, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Ok we’re definitely going to bomb Venezuela now
Someone should do this for political prediction markets, and create an Inverse Carville
October 31, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Someone should do this for political prediction markets, and create an Inverse Carville
Some would say Trump’s Venezuela regime change campaign so far has failed. Not true! I haven’t seen Jeffrey Epstein in the news in weeks
October 31, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Some would say Trump’s Venezuela regime change campaign so far has failed. Not true! I haven’t seen Jeffrey Epstein in the news in weeks
Reposted by Michael Paarlberg
It’s a sign of the times that the people who funded the WelcomePAC report that’s telling Democrats they are “out of touch” with ordinary Americans are mostly billionaires, hedge fund managers, VCs, and corporate execs.
October 30, 2025 at 10:24 PM
It’s a sign of the times that the people who funded the WelcomePAC report that’s telling Democrats they are “out of touch” with ordinary Americans are mostly billionaires, hedge fund managers, VCs, and corporate execs.
Looks like I made it - quoted randomly in an article about a Punjabi gang killing in Fresno www.eurasiareview.com/28102025-ind...
October 30, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Looks like I made it - quoted randomly in an article about a Punjabi gang killing in Fresno www.eurasiareview.com/28102025-ind...
The lesson from this and the Sunstein interview is that the stereotype about DC operatives being disloyal backstabbers isn’t true. Many defend people they shouldn’t or don’t have to because they think showing loyalty to a powerful person who was nice to them supersedes loyalty to country or humanity
October 30, 2025 at 12:58 AM
The lesson from this and the Sunstein interview is that the stereotype about DC operatives being disloyal backstabbers isn’t true. Many defend people they shouldn’t or don’t have to because they think showing loyalty to a powerful person who was nice to them supersedes loyalty to country or humanity
The thing that tankies and neocons have in common is both believe that being anti-war means being a cheerleader for every odious regime in the world. The difference is neocons say this knowing it’s a strategy to make war more likely, while tankies don’t realize they’re the dupes.
October 29, 2025 at 6:02 PM
The thing that tankies and neocons have in common is both believe that being anti-war means being a cheerleader for every odious regime in the world. The difference is neocons say this knowing it’s a strategy to make war more likely, while tankies don’t realize they’re the dupes.
I also teach about the Haitian Revolution. As well as the American Revolution. People are mad that Mamdani learned…the history of the western hemisphere?
Finally someone bold enough to ask, is new york ready for a mayor who opposes slavery? www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/u...
October 29, 2025 at 12:41 PM
I also teach about the Haitian Revolution. As well as the American Revolution. People are mad that Mamdani learned…the history of the western hemisphere?
The latest hare brained regime change scheme, trying to convince Maduro’s pilot to fly him to the US, reminds me of what Pompeo said about the last one, invading Venezuela with 60 guys: it wasn’t us, and if it was, it would’ve been successful - neither of which is very believable.
Joshua Goodman on X: "After @TheJusticeDept doubled to $50 million a bounty for Maduro's arrest, the federal agent texted the Venezuelan leader's pilot. “There's still time left to be Venezuela’s hero and be on the right side of history," he wrote. "Soon it will be too late." https://t.co/hnH0eA0N1M" / X
After @TheJusticeDept doubled to $50 million a bounty for Maduro's arrest, the federal agent texted the Venezuelan leader's pilot. “There's still time left to be Venezuela’s hero and be on the right side of history," he wrote. "Soon it will be too late." https://t.co/hnH0eA0N1M
x.com
October 29, 2025 at 2:26 AM
The latest hare brained regime change scheme, trying to convince Maduro’s pilot to fly him to the US, reminds me of what Pompeo said about the last one, invading Venezuela with 60 guys: it wasn’t us, and if it was, it would’ve been successful - neither of which is very believable.
Reposted by Michael Paarlberg
New It Could Happen Here
@jamesstout.bsky.social is joined by @andrewsage.bsky.social and @mpaarlberg.bsky.social to discuss the Trump administration’s campaign of drone strikes against boats in the Caribbean and the regional response.
www.iheart.com/podcast/105-...
@jamesstout.bsky.social is joined by @andrewsage.bsky.social and @mpaarlberg.bsky.social to discuss the Trump administration’s campaign of drone strikes against boats in the Caribbean and the regional response.
www.iheart.com/podcast/105-...
October 27, 2025 at 7:41 PM
New It Could Happen Here
@jamesstout.bsky.social is joined by @andrewsage.bsky.social and @mpaarlberg.bsky.social to discuss the Trump administration’s campaign of drone strikes against boats in the Caribbean and the regional response.
www.iheart.com/podcast/105-...
@jamesstout.bsky.social is joined by @andrewsage.bsky.social and @mpaarlberg.bsky.social to discuss the Trump administration’s campaign of drone strikes against boats in the Caribbean and the regional response.
www.iheart.com/podcast/105-...
Existe una “agenda inconsistente de EEUU hacia Venezuela, resultado de algunas tensiones y rivalidades en el Gobierno de EEUU entre los halcones conservadores y los nacionalistas aislacionistas.” Mis comentarios en @eldiario.es
América Latina, el patio trasero de Donald Trump
EEUU nunca le soltó el cuello a América Latina, pero Trump aprieta especialmente. El Canal de Panamá, el “Golfo de América”, el despliegue militar frente a Venezuela y la injerencia en Brasil y Argent...
www.eldiario.es
October 27, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Existe una “agenda inconsistente de EEUU hacia Venezuela, resultado de algunas tensiones y rivalidades en el Gobierno de EEUU entre los halcones conservadores y los nacionalistas aislacionistas.” Mis comentarios en @eldiario.es
I was on It Could Happen Here with @jamesstout.bsky.social and @andrewsage.bsky.social talking about regime change disguised as drug enforcement in Venezuela, Petro’s career in Colombia, MCM’s Nobel, and why solidarity should be with people and not states. www.iheart.com/podcast/105-...
Caribbean Roundtable - It Could Happen Here | iHeart
<p>James is joined by Andrew and Michael Paarlberg to discuss the Trump administration’s campaign of drone strikes against boats in the Caribbean and the regional response.</p> <p><strong>Sources:</st...
www.iheart.com
October 27, 2025 at 2:12 PM
I was on It Could Happen Here with @jamesstout.bsky.social and @andrewsage.bsky.social talking about regime change disguised as drug enforcement in Venezuela, Petro’s career in Colombia, MCM’s Nobel, and why solidarity should be with people and not states. www.iheart.com/podcast/105-...
See also Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Iran. If you wanted to design a policy that actually strengthens authoritarian regimes, you couldn’t find one with a better track record than US economic sanctions.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...
October 26, 2025 at 6:59 PM
See also Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Iran. If you wanted to design a policy that actually strengthens authoritarian regimes, you couldn’t find one with a better track record than US economic sanctions.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...
Trump’s bailout for Milei is transparently motivated to shore up the overvalued peso just long enough to delay the inevitable devaluation until after today’s midterm elections. Currency speculators should have an easy time betting against it starting today.
October 26, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Trump’s bailout for Milei is transparently motivated to shore up the overvalued peso just long enough to delay the inevitable devaluation until after today’s midterm elections. Currency speculators should have an easy time betting against it starting today.
I don’t see how missile strikes lead to regime change in Venezuela. More to the point, I don’t see how “Venezuela is a dictatorship,” which is true, logically leads to “the stated goal of US foreign policy toward dictatorships should be regime change, immediately and by any means necessary.”
October 26, 2025 at 3:27 PM
I don’t see how missile strikes lead to regime change in Venezuela. More to the point, I don’t see how “Venezuela is a dictatorship,” which is true, logically leads to “the stated goal of US foreign policy toward dictatorships should be regime change, immediately and by any means necessary.”