Michael Paarlberg
@mpaarlberg.bsky.social
Associate professor of political science, Virginia Commonwealth University. Senior Fellow, Center for International Policy. Assoc. Fellow, Institute for Policy Studies. Formerly The Guardian & Latin America advisor, Bernie Sanders. 교포
michaelpaarlberg.org
michaelpaarlberg.org
Seeing the world through an extractivist lens frees the US from concerns with democracy, stability and rule of law, even if it does little to free those who have long suffered under the regime now partnered with Trump. My piece in @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
The US can't treat Venezuela like Panama
The US framed its 1989 Panama invasion as a targeted capture of a rogue head of state wanted for drug trafficking
www.newstatesman.com
January 6, 2026 at 8:18 AM
Seeing the world through an extractivist lens frees the US from concerns with democracy, stability and rule of law, even if it does little to free those who have long suffered under the regime now partnered with Trump. My piece in @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
The US has long prioritized stability over ideology. This serves Trump’s extractivist agenda, but is not unique to him. If anything it’s a throwback to the days of United Fruit Co. style imperialism.
Venezuela isn’t an exception—it’s the rule. When Washington faces political change in Latin America—like El Salvador in the 1980s—it backs a “moderate” over a “radical” it can’t, prioritizing control-legitimacy. Trump cited this logic with Maria Corina Machado.
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
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abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
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Trump says Venezuelan opposition leader doesn't have the 'respect' to govern after Maduro ousted
Venezuelans are reacting to the U.S. operation early Saturday that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.
abcnews.go.com
January 6, 2026 at 4:55 AM
The US has long prioritized stability over ideology. This serves Trump’s extractivist agenda, but is not unique to him. If anything it’s a throwback to the days of United Fruit Co. style imperialism.
Can’t believe we just accept this as normal now
This person went on a buying spree over the past 24 hours. Fresh wallet. Only existed since Dec 27th and has only bet on Venezuela-related markets.
polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E6...
polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E6...
January 6, 2026 at 4:54 AM
Can’t believe we just accept this as normal now
If Trump is concerned about narco-dictators, why did he just pardon one, Honduras' Juan Orlando Hernandez, convicted in the US of conspiring to "stuff the drugs right up the noses of the gringos"...? I asked this on ABC News:
What is Venezuela’s future after Maduro's capture?
YouTube video by ABC News
www.youtube.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:31 AM
If Trump is concerned about narco-dictators, why did he just pardon one, Honduras' Juan Orlando Hernandez, convicted in the US of conspiring to "stuff the drugs right up the noses of the gringos"...? I asked this on ABC News:
Rubio’s “primary interest is in Cuba, not in Venezuela,” I tell @nbcnews.com. His interest in Venezuela is instrumental for the goal of taking out what he sees as Cuba’s chief patron, and thus the Vz opposition, and securing democracy, are expendable concerns.
U.S. allies and foes fear Maduro's capture sets precedent for more American intervention
The lack of a clear legal justification and the precedent set by the operation have left others wondering how vulnerable they might be to U.S. intervention.
www.nbcnews.com
January 4, 2026 at 2:03 PM
Rubio’s “primary interest is in Cuba, not in Venezuela,” I tell @nbcnews.com. His interest in Venezuela is instrumental for the goal of taking out what he sees as Cuba’s chief patron, and thus the Vz opposition, and securing democracy, are expendable concerns.
It's wild to think that the US killed all those people in the boat strikes, and spent millions in a military campaign, just to end up with essentially the same outcome as the "chavismo lite" deal that Delcy & Jorge offered the US through Qatar last year.
January 4, 2026 at 6:02 AM
It's wild to think that the US killed all those people in the boat strikes, and spent millions in a military campaign, just to end up with essentially the same outcome as the "chavismo lite" deal that Delcy & Jorge offered the US through Qatar last year.
Taking out Maduro while leaving Delcy, Diosdado and Vladimir in charge makes little sense unless you accept that Trump really believed Rubio's line that Maduro is personally in charge of a vast drug trafficking organization, and by extension everything else bad in the Vz govt.
January 4, 2026 at 6:02 AM
Taking out Maduro while leaving Delcy, Diosdado and Vladimir in charge makes little sense unless you accept that Trump really believed Rubio's line that Maduro is personally in charge of a vast drug trafficking organization, and by extension everything else bad in the Vz govt.
Lessons from political science: Leadership change is not the same as regime change, and regime change is not the same as democratization. Most often, leadership change leads to another leader within the regime, and regime change is from one type of authoritarianism to another.
January 3, 2026 at 11:52 PM
Lessons from political science: Leadership change is not the same as regime change, and regime change is not the same as democratization. Most often, leadership change leads to another leader within the regime, and regime change is from one type of authoritarianism to another.
“No vemos ningún intento, ni siquiera un tema de debate, el desmantelamiento de la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana. Esto sería una tarea mucho más difícil para Estados Unidos. Realmente parece que Trump solo quería atrapar a una persona, Maduro,” le digo a @eldiario.es
El exasesor de Sanders para América Latina analiza la operación en Venezuela: "El interés de Trump es el petróleo, no la democracia"
El analista y profesor de la Virginia Commonwealth University Michael Paarlberg cree que el escenario más probable es que el chavismo no caiga, sino que elija a un sucesor. "No parece haber ningún int...
www.eldiario.es
January 3, 2026 at 2:18 PM
“No vemos ningún intento, ni siquiera un tema de debate, el desmantelamiento de la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana. Esto sería una tarea mucho más difícil para Estados Unidos. Realmente parece que Trump solo quería atrapar a una persona, Maduro,” le digo a @eldiario.es
Maduro should have squirreled some money away to give to Trump’s golf buddies like JOH
January 3, 2026 at 11:52 AM
Maduro should have squirreled some money away to give to Trump’s golf buddies like JOH
If this is true, the closest comparison for the Venezuela operation isn't Iraq but Panama. In both cases, the invasion was portrayed as a police action to capture a head of state to stand trial in the US for drug trafficking...
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was arrested to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States and no further military action is expected, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Senator Mike Lee.
January 3, 2026 at 11:39 AM
If this is true, the closest comparison for the Venezuela operation isn't Iraq but Panama. In both cases, the invasion was portrayed as a police action to capture a head of state to stand trial in the US for drug trafficking...
If this is true, there are still many scenarios for who takes over next, not all of which are democratic
1. Others within the PSUV, like the Rodriguez siblings
2. The military itself
3. The opposition, ie Edmundo Gonzalez though he’s in Spain and would need military backing
1. Others within the PSUV, like the Rodriguez siblings
2. The military itself
3. The opposition, ie Edmundo Gonzalez though he’s in Spain and would need military backing
Maduro has been captured by the U.S. according to Trump
January 3, 2026 at 9:53 AM
If this is true, there are still many scenarios for who takes over next, not all of which are democratic
1. Others within the PSUV, like the Rodriguez siblings
2. The military itself
3. The opposition, ie Edmundo Gonzalez though he’s in Spain and would need military backing
1. Others within the PSUV, like the Rodriguez siblings
2. The military itself
3. The opposition, ie Edmundo Gonzalez though he’s in Spain and would need military backing
The reported targets also include oil refineries, Venezuela’s legislative palace, and Chavez’s mausoleum, none of which are military facilities
U.S. launches military strikes on Venezuela as Trump escalates pressure on Maduro regime, sources say www.cbsnews.com/live-updates...
U.S. launches military strikes on Venezuela as Trump escalates pressure on Maduro regime, sources say
President Trump ordered strikes on sites inside Venezuela, including military facilities, U.S. officials told CBS News, ratchet up pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
www.cbsnews.com
January 3, 2026 at 9:28 AM
The reported targets also include oil refineries, Venezuela’s legislative palace, and Chavez’s mausoleum, none of which are military facilities
If “viewers like you” are all knowing and already have the most correct analysis of world events, why do they need to watch the news?
Bari Weiss’s CBS News directly attacking academics, subject matter experts, in the promo for her new CBS Evening News.
January 3, 2026 at 1:51 AM
If “viewers like you” are all knowing and already have the most correct analysis of world events, why do they need to watch the news?
Remember how during the metrosexual era, lazy straight men would use “don’t want to look gay” as an excuse to not work out or dress well or groom ourselves? Now we can do the same but our excuse can be “don’t want to look like a nazi”
Decades of the white nationalist movement evolving to adapt to current political trends has brought them to this moment.
January 2, 2026 at 12:35 AM
Remember how during the metrosexual era, lazy straight men would use “don’t want to look gay” as an excuse to not work out or dress well or groom ourselves? Now we can do the same but our excuse can be “don’t want to look like a nazi”
I was trying to imagine what common interests these two could have to be laughing about and the only thing I could come up with is Assad
genuinely find it hard to wrap my head around this photo
January 2, 2026 at 12:23 AM
I was trying to imagine what common interests these two could have to be laughing about and the only thing I could come up with is Assad
Both journalism and academia are professions that involve a lot of writing, but most academic writing for journals is formulaic to the point that it leaves little room for creativity. I used to be an arts critic and miss when I got to write stuff like this.
January 2, 2026 at 12:10 AM
Both journalism and academia are professions that involve a lot of writing, but most academic writing for journals is formulaic to the point that it leaves little room for creativity. I used to be an arts critic and miss when I got to write stuff like this.
David’s been making this point for a while: Trump wants to provoke Venezuela into war not because he cares about regime change per se, but because he wants to use the Alien Enemies Act to facilitate mass deportations, including of Venezuelans, and the courts say it can’t be invoked outside of war.
December 29, 2025 at 6:54 PM
David’s been making this point for a while: Trump wants to provoke Venezuela into war not because he cares about regime change per se, but because he wants to use the Alien Enemies Act to facilitate mass deportations, including of Venezuelans, and the courts say it can’t be invoked outside of war.
Brazilian and US politics have many parallels - evangelicalism, Jan. 6 / Jan. 8, “deep state” / “o sistema” - but one striking difference is unlike the Democrats, Brazil’s PT has retained and even grown its rural voter base.
December 26, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Brazilian and US politics have many parallels - evangelicalism, Jan. 6 / Jan. 8, “deep state” / “o sistema” - but one striking difference is unlike the Democrats, Brazil’s PT has retained and even grown its rural voter base.
Merry Christmas! Thinking of all those who have fled persecution and violence, as well as those unable to.
December 25, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Merry Christmas! Thinking of all those who have fled persecution and violence, as well as those unable to.
If blockades, embargoes and sanctions were effective tools for regime change, there wouldn’t be such a long list of regimes that have weathered them…indeed, so many that they now make up a huge chunk of the global economy that coordinates specifically to evade US sanctions
December 24, 2025 at 10:02 PM
If blockades, embargoes and sanctions were effective tools for regime change, there wouldn’t be such a long list of regimes that have weathered them…indeed, so many that they now make up a huge chunk of the global economy that coordinates specifically to evade US sanctions
It seems MTG and Laura Loomer have put aside their differences for a common cause
December 24, 2025 at 9:57 PM
It seems MTG and Laura Loomer have put aside their differences for a common cause
I teach at a Minority-Serving Institution. The reason it’s an MSI is because it’s a non-elite public university and affordable to all thanks to federal grants. The DOJ seems to think it’s because MSIs deny spots to white students. We have a 93% admission rate! We don’t deny anyone!
DOJ Report Declares MSIs Unconstitutional
The decision comes after the Department of Education asked the DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel to review the legality of a number of programs they said used racial “quotas.”
www.insidehighered.com
December 23, 2025 at 8:06 PM
I teach at a Minority-Serving Institution. The reason it’s an MSI is because it’s a non-elite public university and affordable to all thanks to federal grants. The DOJ seems to think it’s because MSIs deny spots to white students. We have a 93% admission rate! We don’t deny anyone!
For Trump's blockade of Venezuela to lead to regime change, it would require the Venezuelan military to bet it will get a better deal under the opposition. It's like the South Park underpants gnome bit, I tell BBC. Step 1: ship seizures, Step 2: ???, Step 3: democracy!
Paarlberg BBC interview
This is "Paarlberg BBC interview" by M Pberg on Vimeo, the home for high quality videos and the people who love them.
vimeo.com
December 23, 2025 at 3:18 AM
For Trump's blockade of Venezuela to lead to regime change, it would require the Venezuelan military to bet it will get a better deal under the opposition. It's like the South Park underpants gnome bit, I tell BBC. Step 1: ship seizures, Step 2: ???, Step 3: democracy!
Reposted by Michael Paarlberg
I just uploaded @jasonparis.bsky.social 's recording of the segment CBS News pulled from "60 Minutes" to YouTube:
WATCH: Segment CBS News Pulled From "60 Minutes"
YouTube video by Phil Lewis
www.youtube.com
December 22, 2025 at 10:45 PM
I just uploaded @jasonparis.bsky.social 's recording of the segment CBS News pulled from "60 Minutes" to YouTube: