Tara Moriarty
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moriartylab.bsky.social
Tara Moriarty
@moriartylab.bsky.social
20K followers 9.2K following 20K posts
Associate Professor, University of Toronto. Bloodborne infections, Lyme disease, misinfo. COVID-19 Resources Canada. Defend journalism. Look for the helpers. Opinions mine. 🇨🇦🏳️‍🌈
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moriartylab.bsky.social
Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · Feb 3
Pinned 🧵 of our important links, resources, and past forecasts

bsky.app/profile/mori...
moriartylab.bsky.social Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · Feb 3
Un fil de discussion épinglé de nos liens importants, ainsi que des ressources, et prévisions passées ...
moriartylab.bsky.social
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : DÉC 20, 2025-JAN 2, 2026

CANADA

ÉLEVÉ [stable]

Environ 1 personne sur 55 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections : 11.0 x🔺
-COVID longue : 6.2 x🔺
-Hospitalisations : 9.8 x🔺
-Décès : 9.1 x🔺
December 22, 2025 at 10:24 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : DÉC 20, 2025-JAN 2, 2026
SÉVÈRE : aucun
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : AB, MB, NB, Nord, QC, SK
ÉLEVÉ : CAN, CB, TNL, NÉ, ON, ÎPÉ
MODÉRÉ : aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 55 est actuellement infectée au Canada.
December 22, 2025 at 10:22 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 20, 2025 - Jan 2, 2026

CANADA

HIGH [no change]

About 1 of every 55 people is infected.

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections: 11.0 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.2 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 9.8 x higher
-Deaths: 9.1 x higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Dec 20, 2025 - Jan 2, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.0 About 1 of every 55 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 521,500-682,700 What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH; 11.0X higher Long COVID: HIGH; 6.2X higher Hospitalizations: HIGH; 9.8X higher Deaths: HIGH; 9.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
December 22, 2025 at 10:20 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 20, 2025 - Jan 2, 2026

SEVERE: none
VERY HIGH: AB, MB, NB, North, QC, SK
HIGH: CAN, BC, NL, NS, ON, PEI
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 55 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows gauges with the Dec 20, 2025 - Jan 2, 2026 Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, & territories. From left to right: Canada: HIGH - 10.0 Alberta: VERY HIGH - 12.4 British Columbia: HIGH - 7.6 Manitoba: VERY HIGH - 10.3 New Brunswick: VERY HIGH - 10.5 Newfoundland & Labrador: HIGH - 9.1 North: VERY HIGH - 10.3 Nova Scotia: HIGH - 9.9 Ontario: HIGH - 9.2 Prince Edward Island: HIGH - 6.6 Quebec: VERY HIGH - 10.4 Saskatchewan: VERY HIGH - 14.0 A text box reads: "The COVID Forecast is calculated from 3 equally weighted categories: 1) Current infections and spread; 2) Healthcare system impact; 3) Mortality. Within each category there is one sub-category for trends over the most recent week (Trends) and one sub-category for current parameter values relative to a specified baseline (Current values). Trends and current values are weighted equally when determining the final score for a category. All Forecast input data and sources are available here (https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/42b886cf-d661-488e-b7d8-5c5836b55ab6/page/p_2yqs028mwc). Past Forecast scores are available in the table below. Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)."
December 22, 2025 at 10:18 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Nous avons amélioré notre modèle la semaine dernière et n'avons pas terminé à temps pour publier les prévisions.

Tout est maintenant prêt.

Nous prévoyons de diffuser nos nouvelles prévisions le lundi 22 décembre.

Nous vous prions d’accepter nos excuses les plus sincères pour ce retard.
December 17, 2025 at 8:28 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
We were improving our model last week and didn't finish in time to publish the forecast.

We're done now and are planning to release our next forecast on Monday, December 22.

Our deepest apologies for the delay.
December 17, 2025 at 8:28 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
It is important not to forget about the other respiratory viruses currently circulating.

#flu #H3N2 #vaccine
December 12, 2025 at 7:29 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
@mswcreations.bsky.social is having a free Winter Solstice virtual retreat for COVID-conscious women and gender diverse folx on December 12th at 6:00pm EST.

www.eventbrite.ca/e/2025-covid...
2025 COVID-Conscious Winter Solstice Virtual Retreat
Gather with other COVID-conscious folx for connection and holiday self-care. Experience live Indigenous healing music on Winter Solstice.
www.eventbrite.ca
December 12, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Reposted by Tara Moriarty
circaliz.bsky.social
Hi everyone!
The files from the #C19RC Testing Special Discussion are now available.

Start here to get to the recording, transcript, and chat files.

@moriartylab.bsky.social @wikisteff.bsky.social @battlingbeaver.bsky.social @netgaines.bsky.social @allenescott.bsky.social
Testing Data Discussion - File list
Full, unedited video https://us06web.zoom.us/rec/share/8y6kmBvDTj1g_UjLlN1rJcxAdjmmwaEkYrdRHMhIzMfjtPvhfV_OJlBcjbzhcef5.nDqRPcq4WNTT-O8u?startTime=1765329010000 Passcode: i5@sGKAv Transcript https:/...
docs.google.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:33 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Bonjour à tous.

Les docteurs Tara Moriarty et Stef Christensen animeront une séance particulière de discussion sur les données le 9 décembre.
December 8, 2025 at 7:58 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Hi everyone,

Drs. Tara Moriarty and Stef Christensen will be holding a special Data Discussion session on Dec 9th to provide information on and answer questions about COVID-19 testing devices and methods in advance of the holiday season.

#StillCoviding #COVID19

covid19resources.ca/discussions/
COVID-19 Conversations
COVID Discussions is a virtual kitchen table discussion series, where YOU, the public and experts come together to chat about everything COVID-19 related.
covid19resources.ca
December 8, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Reposted by Tara Moriarty
circaliz.bsky.social
#C19RC is holding our monthly C19RC Science Journal Club
Up this this month:
Azelastine Nasal Spray for Prevention of SARS-CoV-2 Infections: A Phase 2 Randomized Clinical Trial
Lehr T, Meiser P, Selzer D, et al.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Registration Link: us06web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: C19RC Science Journal Club. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.
Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: C19RC Science Journal Club. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.
us06web.zoom.us
November 25, 2025 at 4:37 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 22 - DÉC 5, 2025

CANADA

ÉLEVÉ [stable]

Environ 1 personne sur 161 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections : 8.8 x🔺
-COVID longue : 6.0 x🔺
-Hospitalisations : 8.2 x🔺
-Décès : 11.4 x🔺
November 25, 2025 at 2:07 AM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 22 - DÉC 5, 2025

SÉVÈRE : AB
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : MB, NB, Nord, NÉ, SK
ÉLEVÉ : CAN, CB, TNL, ON, ÎPÉ, QC
MODÉRÉ : aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 161 est actuellement infectée au Canada.
November 25, 2025 at 2:06 AM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 22 - Dec 5, 2025

CANADA

HIGH [no change]

About 1 of every 161 people is infected.

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections: 8.8 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.0 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 8.2 x higher
-Deaths: 11.4 x higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Nov 22 - Dec 5, 2025, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 9.4 About 1 of every 161 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 580,400-750,800 What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 8.8X higher Long COVID: HIGH; 6.0X higher Hospitalizations: HIGH; 8.2X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 11.4X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
November 25, 2025 at 2:04 AM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 22 - Dec 5, 2025

SEVERE: AB
VERY HIGH: MB, NB, North, NS, SK
HIGH: CAN, BC, NL, ON, PEI, QC
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 161 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows gauges with the Nov 22 - Dec 5, 2025 Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, & territories. From left to right: Canada: HIGH - 9.4 Alberta: SEVERE - 15.1 British Columbia: HIGH - 7.2 Manitoba: VERY HIGH - 13.9 New Brunswick: VERY HIGH - 14.0 Newfoundland & Labrador: HIGH - 7.9 North: VERY HIGH - 11.1 Nova Scotia: VERY HIGH - 14.3 Ontario: HIGH - 8.2 Prince Edward Island: HIGH - 8.8 Quebec: HIGH - 8.7 Saskatchewan: VERY HIGH - 14.5 A text box reads: "The COVID Forecast is calculated from 3 equally weighted categories: 1) Current infections and spread; 2) Healthcare system impact; 3) Mortality. Within each category there is one sub-category for trends over the most recent week (Trends) and one sub-category for current parameter values relative to a specified baseline (Current values). Trends and current values are weighted equally when determining the final score for a category. All Forecast input data and sources are available here (https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/42b886cf-d661-488e-b7d8-5c5836b55ab6/page/p_2yqs028mwc). Past Forecast scores are available in the table below. Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)."
November 25, 2025 at 2:02 AM
Reposted by Tara Moriarty
circaliz.bsky.social
Hey everybody, COVID-19 Resources Canada, #C19RC , is hosting a Kitchen Table Conversation tonight at 8 pm.

Please feel free to join the conversation.

Registration Link below.

@moriartylab.bsky.social @battlingbeaver.bsky.social @jeweljam.bsky.social @allenescott.bsky.social
Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: C19RC Kitchen Table Conversations. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.
Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: C19RC Kitchen Table Conversations. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.
us06web.zoom.us
November 11, 2025 at 11:49 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 8 - NOV 21, 2025

CANADA

TRÈS ÉLEVÉ [stable]

Environ 1 personne sur 118 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections : 7.6 x🔺
-COVID longue : 6.0 x🔺
-Hospitalisations : 10.4 x🔺
-Décès : 12.2 x🔺
November 10, 2025 at 11:01 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 8 - NOV 21, 2025

SÉVÈRE : AB
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : CAN, MB, NB, TNL, Nord, NÉ, QC, SK
ÉLEVÉ : CB, ON, ÎPÉ
MODÉRÉ : aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 118 est actuellement infectée au Canada.
November 10, 2025 at 11:00 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 8 - Nov 21, 2025

CANADA

VERY HIGH [no change]

About 1 of every 118 people is infected.

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections: 7.6 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.0 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 10.4 x higher
-Deaths: 12.2 x higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Nov 8 - Nov 21, 2025, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.1 About 1 of every 118 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 583,200-806,200 What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 7.6X higher Long COVID: HIGH; 6.0X higher Hospitalizations: VERY HIGH; 10.4X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 12.2X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks AVOID indoor social gatherings AVOID crowded non-essential places Who is HIGH RISK? People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
November 10, 2025 at 10:58 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 8 - Nov 21, 2025

SEVERE: AB
VERY HIGH: CAN, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, QC, SK
HIGH: BC, ON, PEI
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 118 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows gauges with the Nov 8 - Nov 21, 2025 Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, & territories. From left to right: Canada: VERY HIGH - 10.1 Alberta: SEVERE - 16.2 British Columbia: HIGH - 8.4 Manitoba: VERY HIGH - 11.9 New Brunswick: VERY HIGH - 14.5 Newfoundland & Labrador: VERY HIGH - 10.1 North: VERY HIGH - 11.5 Nova Scotia: VERY HIGH - 12.7 Ontario: HIGH - 9.2 Prince Edward Island: HIGH - 7.7 Quebec: VERY HIGH - 10.1 Saskatchewan: VERY HIGH - 13.1 A text box reads: "The COVID Forecast is calculated from 3 equally weighted categories: 1) Current infections and spread; 2) Healthcare system impact; 3) Mortality. Within each category there is one sub-category for trends over the most recent week (Trends) and one sub-category for current parameter values relative to a specified baseline (Current values). Trends and current values are weighted equally when determining the final score for a category. All Forecast input data and sources are available here (https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/42b886cf-d661-488e-b7d8-5c5836b55ab6/page/p_2yqs028mwc). Past Forecast scores are available in the table below. Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)."
November 10, 2025 at 10:56 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : OCT 25 - NOV 7, 2025

CANADA

TRÈS ÉLEVÉ [en baisse]

Environ 1 personne sur 126 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections : 7.6 x🔺
-COVID longue : 6.3 x🔺
-Hospitalisations : 13.3 x🔺
-Décès : 10.5 x🔺
October 27, 2025 at 10:36 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : OCT 25 - NOV 7, 2025

SÉVÈRE : NB, NÉ, SK
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : CAN, AB, CB, MB, TNL, Nord, ON, ÎPÉ
ÉLEVÉ : QC
MODÉRÉ : aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 126 est actuellement infectée au Canada.
October 27, 2025 at 10:35 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 25 - Nov 7, 2025

CANADA

VERY HIGH [decreasing]

About 1 of every 126 people is infected.

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections: 7.6 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.3 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 13.3 x higher
-Deaths: 10.5 x higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Oct 25 - Nov 7, 2025, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.5 About 1 of every 126 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 488,600-614,500 What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 7.6X higher Long COVID: HIGH; 6.3X higher Hospitalizations: VERY HIGH; 13.3X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 10.5X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks AVOID indoor social gatherings AVOID crowded non-essential places Who is HIGH RISK People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
October 27, 2025 at 10:33 PM
moriartylab.bsky.social
Canadian COVID Forecast: Oct 25 - Nov 7, 2025

SEVERE: NB, NS, SK
VERY HIGH: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NL, North, ON, PEI
HIGH: QC
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 126 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows gauges with the Oct 25 - Nov 7, 2025 Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, & territories. From left to right: Canada: VERY HIGH - 10.5 Alberta: VERY HIGH - 13.0 British Columbia: VERY HIGH - 10.5 Manitoba: VERY HIGH - 10.7 New Brunswick: SEVERE - 15.1 Newfoundland & Labrador: VERY HIGH - 12.2 North: VERY HIGH - 11.7 Nova Scotia: SEVERE - 15.4 Ontario: VERY HIGH - 10.3 Prince Edward Island: VERY HIGH - 10.2 Quebec: HIGH - 9.4 Saskatchewan: SEVERE - 15.9 A text box reads: "The COVID Forecast is calculated from 3 equally weighted categories: 1) Current infections and spread; 2) Healthcare system impact; 3) Mortality. Within each category there is one sub-category for trends over the most recent week (Trends) and one sub-category for current parameter values relative to a specified baseline (Current values). Trends and current values are weighted equally when determining the final score for a category. All Forecast input data and sources are available here (https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/42b886cf-d661-488e-b7d8-5c5836b55ab6/page/p_2yqs028mwc). Past Forecast scores are available in the table below. Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)."
October 27, 2025 at 10:31 PM