Michael Bociurkiw
@michaelbociurkiw.bsky.social
New York Times-published OpEd writer. Global affairs analyst. Author. Sr Fellow - Atlantic Council. Former spox at OSCE & UNICEF. Founder - World Briefing report on Substack
The U.S. sets a June deadline, Russia sells a $12-trillion illusion, and Ukraine endures another night of blackouts - while Trump’s “Board of Peace” looms over the global order open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Deadlines, Delusions and Drones
As Donald Trump pushes a summer peace timeline, Moscow pounds Ukraine’s infrastructure and pitches an economic fantasy to reshape Trump-era diplomacy
open.substack.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:19 PM
The U.S. sets a June deadline, Russia sells a $12-trillion illusion, and Ukraine endures another night of blackouts - while Trump’s “Board of Peace” looms over the global order open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Voters in Japan are braving frigid temps & snow today to decide whether to give PM Sanae Takaichi a fresh mandate in the nation's lower house election. Meanwhile in Thailand hot temps and a nationwide alcohol ban great voters as they decide lower house elections. My hot take analysis from Thailand
February 8, 2026 at 9:55 AM
Voters in Japan are braving frigid temps & snow today to decide whether to give PM Sanae Takaichi a fresh mandate in the nation's lower house election. Meanwhile in Thailand hot temps and a nationwide alcohol ban great voters as they decide lower house elections. My hot take analysis from Thailand
Weekend elections in Thailand, Japan and soon Bangladesh unfold against a grim backdrop: @hrw.org says that a vast majority of humanity now lives under autocracy.
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
World Briefing Plus: Ballots, Backsliding and Bombardment
From pivotal elections in Thailand, Japan & Bangladesh, to HRW’s warning that global democracy has slid back to 1985 levels - and as Russian strikes again darken Ukraine’s skies, we connect the dots
open.substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Weekend elections in Thailand, Japan and soon Bangladesh unfold against a grim backdrop: @hrw.org says that a vast majority of humanity now lives under autocracy.
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Overnight , Russian launched a massive drone/missile attack on Ukraine. Regions that came under fire: Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv. Critical infrastructure targeted. Also the main factory of Roshen chocolates owned by former president Poroshenko
February 7, 2026 at 7:11 AM
Overnight , Russian launched a massive drone/missile attack on Ukraine. Regions that came under fire: Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv. Critical infrastructure targeted. Also the main factory of Roshen chocolates owned by former president Poroshenko
The next round of US-brokered peace talks with Russia is “likely” to take place in the United States as officials from both countries wrapped up a second day of renewed negotiations, President Zelensky said
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Peace Talks, Blood on the Ground, and the $450 Billion Reality
As U.S.-brokered talks inch forward, Russia’s shadow fleet bankrolls the war - exposing why Ukraine faces immense pressure to concede, and why Europe still isn’t pulling the real economic levers
open.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 4:31 PM
The next round of US-brokered peace talks with Russia is “likely” to take place in the United States as officials from both countries wrapped up a second day of renewed negotiations, President Zelensky said
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Russia’s shadow fleet - a largely unchecked lifeline that pumps estimated $150bn/year Kremlin’s war economy, totalling roughly $450 billion since the invasion began. That starkly contrasts with the less than $200bn in EU support provided to Ukraine over same period open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Peace Talks, Blood on the Ground, and the $450 Billion Reality
As U.S.-brokered talks inch forward, Russia’s shadow fleet bankrolls the war - exposing why Ukraine faces immense pressure to concede, and why Europe still isn’t pulling the real economic levers
open.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:06 PM
Russia’s shadow fleet - a largely unchecked lifeline that pumps estimated $150bn/year Kremlin’s war economy, totalling roughly $450 billion since the invasion began. That starkly contrasts with the less than $200bn in EU support provided to Ukraine over same period open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
What I have called a coalition of the unwilling HRW describes more formally as an “alliance of rights-respecting democracies.” The labels differ, but the logic is the same: acting alone leaves countries exposed; acting together creates leverage
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
The World Needs a Coalition of the Unwilling
Human Rights Watch says democracies must band together as the rules-based order unravels
open.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 11:26 AM
What I have called a coalition of the unwilling HRW describes more formally as an “alliance of rights-respecting democracies.” The labels differ, but the logic is the same: acting alone leaves countries exposed; acting together creates leverage
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Washington Post Lays Off More Than 300 Journalists - The layoffs cut into The Post’s local, international and sports coverage, and reduced its entire work force by about 30 percent.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
Washington Post Lays Off More Than 300 Journalists
www.nytimes.com
February 5, 2026 at 4:50 AM
Washington Post Lays Off More Than 300 Journalists - The layoffs cut into The Post’s local, international and sports coverage, and reduced its entire work force by about 30 percent.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
What makes this moment especially perilous is that it still sits below the threshold of open war. President Vladimir Putin has refined a model that spreads fear, drains security resources, and probes Western red lines without triggering a NATO response
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Russia’s War in Ukraine Has Left the Battlefield - and Is Now Testing Europe in Orbit
With naval vessels sabotaged at home and satellites stalked above, Europe faces a hybrid war from the Kremlin that no longer respects borders - or gravity
open.substack.com
February 4, 2026 at 4:14 PM
What makes this moment especially perilous is that it still sits below the threshold of open war. President Vladimir Putin has refined a model that spreads fear, drains security resources, and probes Western red lines without triggering a NATO response
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
#BREAKING: Russia said to have used record number of ballistic missiles on five regions to target #Ukraine energy infrastructure amid severe cold snap
More details here: open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
More details here: open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Ukraine’s War Casts Long Shadow as US and India Strike Surprise Trade Deal
Trump touts an India deal that would supposedly choke off Russian oil revenues, but Indian analysts question the math, the promises - and whether this is leverage, not alignment
open.substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 5:25 PM
#BREAKING: Russia said to have used record number of ballistic missiles on five regions to target #Ukraine energy infrastructure amid severe cold snap
More details here: open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
More details here: open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
If Ukraine’s war has reached New Delhi, it’s not because India chose sides - but because the global system is forcing the issue. Fence-sitting works until it doesn’t. The longer India delays clarifying where it stands, the more its credibility comes into question open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Ukraine’s War Casts Long Shadow as US and India Strike Surprise Trade Deal
Trump touts an India deal that would supposedly choke off Russian oil revenues, but Indian analysts question the math, the promises - and whether this is leverage, not alignment
open.substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 4:12 PM
If Ukraine’s war has reached New Delhi, it’s not because India chose sides - but because the global system is forcing the issue. Fence-sitting works until it doesn’t. The longer India delays clarifying where it stands, the more its credibility comes into question open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
One of my proudest moments as a Canadian overseas.
“We will never allow a bully to bully us. And we will never allow that bully (Donald Trump) to take things away from us that are ours.”
Link to full FCC HK ‘Year Ahead’ power panel: youtu.be/uOOxYRgtwKk?...
“We will never allow a bully to bully us. And we will never allow that bully (Donald Trump) to take things away from us that are ours.”
Link to full FCC HK ‘Year Ahead’ power panel: youtu.be/uOOxYRgtwKk?...
February 3, 2026 at 6:41 AM
One of my proudest moments as a Canadian overseas.
“We will never allow a bully to bully us. And we will never allow that bully (Donald Trump) to take things away from us that are ours.”
Link to full FCC HK ‘Year Ahead’ power panel: youtu.be/uOOxYRgtwKk?...
“We will never allow a bully to bully us. And we will never allow that bully (Donald Trump) to take things away from us that are ours.”
Link to full FCC HK ‘Year Ahead’ power panel: youtu.be/uOOxYRgtwKk?...
In the post-pandemic era, public health infrastructure is the next frontier. The risk isn’t a Chinese takeover of global health - it’s fragmentation, with ethics, transparency, and accountability becoming optional add-ons rather than baseline standards open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
After America Walks Away, China Rewrites the Code of Global Health
Washington’s WHO exit doesn’t just leave a funding gap - it hands Beijing the chance to reshape vaccines, public health infrastructure & the rules of biomedical power, from Geneva to the Global South
open.substack.com
February 2, 2026 at 5:05 PM
In the post-pandemic era, public health infrastructure is the next frontier. The risk isn’t a Chinese takeover of global health - it’s fragmentation, with ethics, transparency, and accountability becoming optional add-ons rather than baseline standards open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Markets in Thailand ended 2025 as the worst performer in Asia. The lagging economy one of top-of-mind issues in the ongoing election open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
The Youth Vote Is Rising - and Governments Are Missing the Warning Signs
From Bangkok to Cairo, Ottawa and Rome, young voters are priced out, shut out, and increasingly ready to punish tone-deaf leaders at the ballot box
open.substack.com
February 2, 2026 at 7:57 AM
Markets in Thailand ended 2025 as the worst performer in Asia. The lagging economy one of top-of-mind issues in the ongoing election open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
World Briefing: Thailand Edition - The message is getting louder: young voters are numerous, mobilizing, and increasingly willing to swing elections. Many ruling parties still appear unable - or unwilling - to grasp what that means.
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri... #Thailand
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri... #Thailand
The Youth Vote Is Rising - and Governments Are Missing the Warning Signs
From Bangkok to Cairo, Ottawa and Rome, young voters are priced out, shut out, and increasingly ready to punish tone-deaf leaders at the ballot box
open.substack.com
February 1, 2026 at 2:47 PM
World Briefing: Thailand Edition - The message is getting louder: young voters are numerous, mobilizing, and increasingly willing to swing elections. Many ruling parties still appear unable - or unwilling - to grasp what that means.
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri... #Thailand
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri... #Thailand
From a U.S. naval buildup edging toward Iranian waters, to elections unfolding in Myanmar and Thailand, to Western leaders quietly engaging Beijing as China is increasingly framed - rightly or wrongly - as a “responsible” global actor. open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
World Briefing Plus: The World Is Looking for a Cop
Trump’s expanding global role is not what MAGA signed up for
open.substack.com
February 1, 2026 at 3:38 AM
From a U.S. naval buildup edging toward Iranian waters, to elections unfolding in Myanmar and Thailand, to Western leaders quietly engaging Beijing as China is increasingly framed - rightly or wrongly - as a “responsible” global actor. open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
With widespread layoffs expected at @washingtonpost.com in the coming weeks, teams of reporters are sending impassioned letters to owner Jeff Bezos, urging him not to shrink the newsroom www.cnn.com/2026/01/29/m...
Washington Post’s White House team urges Jeff Bezos to halt massive newsroom cuts | CNN Business
With widespread layoffs expected at The Washington Post in the coming weeks, teams of reporters are sending impassioned letters to owner Jeff Bezos, urging him not to shrink the newsroom.
www.cnn.com
January 30, 2026 at 6:45 AM
With widespread layoffs expected at @washingtonpost.com in the coming weeks, teams of reporters are sending impassioned letters to owner Jeff Bezos, urging him not to shrink the newsroom www.cnn.com/2026/01/29/m...
China has executed 11 members of a notorious family that ran scam centres in Myanmar. Beijing is asserting itself as the decisive power shaping the regional response to scam centers, signalling to everyone that involvement - now carries life-and-death consequences open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Lives, Lies & Laundering: China Moves In as Top Cop in Asia's Scam Belt
As cyber-fraud hubs spread across Southeast Asia, Beijing is increasingly setting the terms of crackdowns - raising questions about power, sovereignty, and selective justice
open.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 5:39 PM
China has executed 11 members of a notorious family that ran scam centres in Myanmar. Beijing is asserting itself as the decisive power shaping the regional response to scam centers, signalling to everyone that involvement - now carries life-and-death consequences open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Amazon sacking 16,000 staff members just as it spends record $35 million - far more than is typical for documentaries - to promote its film about First Lady Melania Trump. An attempt by Amazon to ingratiate itself with Donald Trump? www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/b...
Amazon’s Promotion of ‘Melania’ Has Critics Questioning Its Motives
www.nytimes.com
January 29, 2026 at 12:18 AM
Amazon sacking 16,000 staff members just as it spends record $35 million - far more than is typical for documentaries - to promote its film about First Lady Melania Trump. An attempt by Amazon to ingratiate itself with Donald Trump? www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/b...
Rubio’s “reimagining” of NATO may be Washington preparing the ground for disengagement - or for something more transactional, more conditional, more unilateral.
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
U.S. Places NATO on Notice
Rubio’s testimony to Congress lays bare a deeper truth: NATO needs to be “reimagined” with Europe urged to show more chutzpah - as Trump openly scorns the alliance
open.substack.com
January 28, 2026 at 6:04 PM
Rubio’s “reimagining” of NATO may be Washington preparing the ground for disengagement - or for something more transactional, more conditional, more unilateral.
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
At least 35 injured and three killed in deadly overnight Russian drone attack on the southern #Ukraine port city of Odesa. Today most regions will have more hours of the day WITHOUT electricity than with. Water shortages aggravating situation
January 28, 2026 at 7:43 AM
At least 35 injured and three killed in deadly overnight Russian drone attack on the southern #Ukraine port city of Odesa. Today most regions will have more hours of the day WITHOUT electricity than with. Water shortages aggravating situation
Trump’s rhetoric has long promised restraint, retrenchment and an end to endless wars. Another military buildup off #Iran underscores a growing disconnect between the MAGA brand of isolationism and the muscular foreign policy now playing out in real time open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
MAGA vs. the World’s Policeman
From Venezuela to Greenland to the Persian Gulf, Trump’s military posture is colliding with his own isolationist promise to his base
open.substack.com
January 28, 2026 at 6:15 AM
Trump’s rhetoric has long promised restraint, retrenchment and an end to endless wars. Another military buildup off #Iran underscores a growing disconnect between the MAGA brand of isolationism and the muscular foreign policy now playing out in real time open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Trump promised restraint, an end to endless wars. But the reality unfolding - now with military buildup near #Iran - tells a different story. It underscores a growing disconnect between MAGA brand of isolationism & muscular foreign policy playing out in real time open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
MAGA vs. the World’s Policeman
From Venezuela to Greenland to the Persian Gulf, Trump’s military posture is colliding with his own isolationist promise to his base
open.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 4:22 PM
Trump promised restraint, an end to endless wars. But the reality unfolding - now with military buildup near #Iran - tells a different story. It underscores a growing disconnect between MAGA brand of isolationism & muscular foreign policy playing out in real time open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Russia has previously attempted to control
@interpol.int: in 2018 for the election of its president, Russia pitched Alexander Prokopchuk, a general in the Interior Ministry. But due to media attention & political pressure, he was defeated by S Korean candidate open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
@interpol.int: in 2018 for the election of its president, Russia pitched Alexander Prokopchuk, a general in the Interior Ministry. But due to media attention & political pressure, he was defeated by S Korean candidate open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
Is The World We Built Being Turned Against Us?
Russia’s war is fought with missiles at the frontline - and paperwork in global institutions - revealing a dangerous truth: the systems meant to protect people can be repurposed to punish them.
open.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 3:58 AM
Russia has previously attempted to control
@interpol.int: in 2018 for the election of its president, Russia pitched Alexander Prokopchuk, a general in the Interior Ministry. But due to media attention & political pressure, he was defeated by S Korean candidate open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
@interpol.int: in 2018 for the election of its president, Russia pitched Alexander Prokopchuk, a general in the Interior Ministry. But due to media attention & political pressure, he was defeated by S Korean candidate open.substack.com/pub/worldbri...
“Our nation is hurting. People are mourning the loss of two lives at the hands of immigration agents in Minneapolis. There is confusion and fear as to the legalities at hand. Let’s be clear: This level of violence is not normal” - American Bar Association statement #Minneapolis
January 27, 2026 at 1:34 AM
“Our nation is hurting. People are mourning the loss of two lives at the hands of immigration agents in Minneapolis. There is confusion and fear as to the legalities at hand. Let’s be clear: This level of violence is not normal” - American Bar Association statement #Minneapolis