Pinned
Trump was able to win back some Mainers from 2020 and improved his numbers in every county but Lincoln and Sagadahoc. The trend continues as the coast moves left and inland moves right, especially in the northernmost part of Maine.
D+9.1➡️D+6.9
#mepolitics
D+9.1➡️D+6.9
#mepolitics
Looking at town results on BDN for Q1 and Q2. Northern ME saw huge shifts from '24.
Caribou
'24 Prez: Trump+20
'25 Q1: No+3 (23pt shift 🔵)
Fort Fairfield
'24 Prez: Trump+19
'25 Q1: No+7 (26pt shift 🔵)
Presque Isle
'24 Prez: Trump+9
'25 Q1: No+18 (27pt shift 🔵)
#mepolitics
Caribou
'24 Prez: Trump+20
'25 Q1: No+3 (23pt shift 🔵)
Fort Fairfield
'24 Prez: Trump+19
'25 Q1: No+7 (26pt shift 🔵)
Presque Isle
'24 Prez: Trump+9
'25 Q1: No+18 (27pt shift 🔵)
#mepolitics
November 9, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Looking at town results on BDN for Q1 and Q2. Northern ME saw huge shifts from '24.
Caribou
'24 Prez: Trump+20
'25 Q1: No+3 (23pt shift 🔵)
Fort Fairfield
'24 Prez: Trump+19
'25 Q1: No+7 (26pt shift 🔵)
Presque Isle
'24 Prez: Trump+9
'25 Q1: No+18 (27pt shift 🔵)
#mepolitics
Caribou
'24 Prez: Trump+20
'25 Q1: No+3 (23pt shift 🔵)
Fort Fairfield
'24 Prez: Trump+19
'25 Q1: No+7 (26pt shift 🔵)
Presque Isle
'24 Prez: Trump+9
'25 Q1: No+18 (27pt shift 🔵)
#mepolitics
The referendum results underscore a big issue for Maine Rs. They need to improve their margins in large municipalities or they will continue to lose ground, especially in non-presidential years. The largest 10 munis in ME are currently voting >25 pts left of the state #mepolitics
November 5, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The referendum results underscore a big issue for Maine Rs. They need to improve their margins in large municipalities or they will continue to lose ground, especially in non-presidential years. The largest 10 munis in ME are currently voting >25 pts left of the state #mepolitics
Per the new MPA scorecard, here are the most bipartisan legislators for each party in ‘25
GOP turned Indy Gov candidate Rick Bennett is the most bipartisan State Sen
GOP Rep Lucas Lanigan, indicted on domestic violence charges in March, is the most bipartisan R Rep #mepolitics
GOP turned Indy Gov candidate Rick Bennett is the most bipartisan State Sen
GOP Rep Lucas Lanigan, indicted on domestic violence charges in March, is the most bipartisan R Rep #mepolitics
September 19, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Per the new MPA scorecard, here are the most bipartisan legislators for each party in ‘25
GOP turned Indy Gov candidate Rick Bennett is the most bipartisan State Sen
GOP Rep Lucas Lanigan, indicted on domestic violence charges in March, is the most bipartisan R Rep #mepolitics
GOP turned Indy Gov candidate Rick Bennett is the most bipartisan State Sen
GOP Rep Lucas Lanigan, indicted on domestic violence charges in March, is the most bipartisan R Rep #mepolitics
In 2020, Susan Collins had the third biggest drop in margin of any incumbent senator between two elections since 2000.
2014: Collins +37.0
2020: Collins +8.6 (-28.4)
Only Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Ted Stevens (R-AK) had bigger drops of 33pts and 70pts, respectively
#mepolitics
2014: Collins +37.0
2020: Collins +8.6 (-28.4)
Only Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Ted Stevens (R-AK) had bigger drops of 33pts and 70pts, respectively
#mepolitics
September 4, 2025 at 3:53 PM
In 2020, Susan Collins had the third biggest drop in margin of any incumbent senator between two elections since 2000.
2014: Collins +37.0
2020: Collins +8.6 (-28.4)
Only Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Ted Stevens (R-AK) had bigger drops of 33pts and 70pts, respectively
#mepolitics
2014: Collins +37.0
2020: Collins +8.6 (-28.4)
Only Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Ted Stevens (R-AK) had bigger drops of 33pts and 70pts, respectively
#mepolitics
The GOP has been trying to win HD44 for years and with Bill Pluecker (I) term-limited they may finally get their chance.
HD104 and HD107 should be clear targets for Dems as Arata is term-limited and Cooper is in a Harris district which had an independent running in '24 #mepolitics
HD104 and HD107 should be clear targets for Dems as Arata is term-limited and Cooper is in a Harris district which had an independent running in '24 #mepolitics
Here's an early look at the best pickup opportunities for each party in the ME House
🟦Democrats: 25
🟥Republicans: 12
Even a moderate midterm advantage for Democrats should leave them in a great position to expand their majority #mepolitics
🟦Democrats: 25
🟥Republicans: 12
Even a moderate midterm advantage for Democrats should leave them in a great position to expand their majority #mepolitics
July 25, 2025 at 7:57 PM
The GOP has been trying to win HD44 for years and with Bill Pluecker (I) term-limited they may finally get their chance.
HD104 and HD107 should be clear targets for Dems as Arata is term-limited and Cooper is in a Harris district which had an independent running in '24 #mepolitics
HD104 and HD107 should be clear targets for Dems as Arata is term-limited and Cooper is in a Harris district which had an independent running in '24 #mepolitics
Here's an early look at the best pickup opportunities for each party in the ME House
🟦Democrats: 25
🟥Republicans: 12
Even a moderate midterm advantage for Democrats should leave them in a great position to expand their majority #mepolitics
🟦Democrats: 25
🟥Republicans: 12
Even a moderate midterm advantage for Democrats should leave them in a great position to expand their majority #mepolitics
July 25, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Here's an early look at the best pickup opportunities for each party in the ME House
🟦Democrats: 25
🟥Republicans: 12
Even a moderate midterm advantage for Democrats should leave them in a great position to expand their majority #mepolitics
🟦Democrats: 25
🟥Republicans: 12
Even a moderate midterm advantage for Democrats should leave them in a great position to expand their majority #mepolitics
SD8 is trending right relative to the state, but will likely stay in Dem hands with a favorable midterm environment and Tipping running again.
SD20 trended similarly to the state from '20 to '24. Bickford benefitted from a progressive independent running #mepolitics
SD20 trended similarly to the state from '20 to '24. Bickford benefitted from a progressive independent running #mepolitics
July 24, 2025 at 7:08 PM
SD8 is trending right relative to the state, but will likely stay in Dem hands with a favorable midterm environment and Tipping running again.
SD20 trended similarly to the state from '20 to '24. Bickford benefitted from a progressive independent running #mepolitics
SD20 trended similarly to the state from '20 to '24. Bickford benefitted from a progressive independent running #mepolitics
Here's a very early look at where Dems and GOP will be looking to pick up seats in the 2026 ME Senate races.
Best Pickup Opps
Rs - SD8 (Mike Tipping - D)
🟥2024 Prez: R+2.1
🟦2024 ME Sen: D+0.6
Ds - SD20 (Bruce Bickford - R)
🟦2024 Prez: D+0.9
🟥2024 ME Sen: R+4.4
#mepolitics
Best Pickup Opps
Rs - SD8 (Mike Tipping - D)
🟥2024 Prez: R+2.1
🟦2024 ME Sen: D+0.6
Ds - SD20 (Bruce Bickford - R)
🟦2024 Prez: D+0.9
🟥2024 ME Sen: R+4.4
#mepolitics
July 24, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Here's a very early look at where Dems and GOP will be looking to pick up seats in the 2026 ME Senate races.
Best Pickup Opps
Rs - SD8 (Mike Tipping - D)
🟥2024 Prez: R+2.1
🟦2024 ME Sen: D+0.6
Ds - SD20 (Bruce Bickford - R)
🟦2024 Prez: D+0.9
🟥2024 ME Sen: R+4.4
#mepolitics
Best Pickup Opps
Rs - SD8 (Mike Tipping - D)
🟥2024 Prez: R+2.1
🟦2024 ME Sen: D+0.6
Ds - SD20 (Bruce Bickford - R)
🟦2024 Prez: D+0.9
🟥2024 ME Sen: R+4.4
#mepolitics
With Paul LePage jumping into the ME-02 race, let's look back at his last two elections for governor. In 2014, LePage won CD2 and narrowly lost CD1. In his 2022 return to politics, he lost massive ground in CD1 and barely won CD2 in route to a 13pt statewide defeat #mepolitics
July 19, 2025 at 12:37 PM
With Paul LePage jumping into the ME-02 race, let's look back at his last two elections for governor. In 2014, LePage won CD2 and narrowly lost CD1. In his 2022 return to politics, he lost massive ground in CD1 and barely won CD2 in route to a 13pt statewide defeat #mepolitics
We're still 11 months from the primaries, but the gubernatorial race is already heating up.
Democrats Hannah Pingree and Shenna Bellows have already raised over $500k with Bobby Charles on the Republican side bringing in over $300k #mepolitics
Democrats Hannah Pingree and Shenna Bellows have already raised over $500k with Bobby Charles on the Republican side bringing in over $300k #mepolitics
July 16, 2025 at 11:15 AM
We're still 11 months from the primaries, but the gubernatorial race is already heating up.
Democrats Hannah Pingree and Shenna Bellows have already raised over $500k with Bobby Charles on the Republican side bringing in over $300k #mepolitics
Democrats Hannah Pingree and Shenna Bellows have already raised over $500k with Bobby Charles on the Republican side bringing in over $300k #mepolitics
Lake Research Partners, Pan Atlantic Research and UNH have all tested Susan Collins’ favorability recently and come away varying results
Net Fav
4/17 LRP: -33 ⬇️
5/26 PAR: +4 ⬆️
6/23 UNH: -42 ⬇️
I would presume it’s closer to +4, but the data is saying otherwise #mepolitics
Net Fav
4/17 LRP: -33 ⬇️
5/26 PAR: +4 ⬆️
6/23 UNH: -42 ⬇️
I would presume it’s closer to +4, but the data is saying otherwise #mepolitics
June 29, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Lake Research Partners, Pan Atlantic Research and UNH have all tested Susan Collins’ favorability recently and come away varying results
Net Fav
4/17 LRP: -33 ⬇️
5/26 PAR: +4 ⬆️
6/23 UNH: -42 ⬇️
I would presume it’s closer to +4, but the data is saying otherwise #mepolitics
Net Fav
4/17 LRP: -33 ⬇️
5/26 PAR: +4 ⬆️
6/23 UNH: -42 ⬇️
I would presume it’s closer to +4, but the data is saying otherwise #mepolitics
Big question for 2026: Who will Cooper Flagg be endorsing in the gubernatorial election? #mepolitics
June 28, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Big question for 2026: Who will Cooper Flagg be endorsing in the gubernatorial election? #mepolitics
What a gift for Democrats. Golden would be a heavy favorite if he does run for reelection.
LePage only won CD2 towns by 2.8pts when he ran against Janet Mills in the 2022 gubernatorial election #mepolitics
LePage only won CD2 towns by 2.8pts when he ran against Janet Mills in the 2022 gubernatorial election #mepolitics
Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage announced Monday that he's running for the state's 2nd Congressional District seat. From @mainepublic.org:
Former Gov. Paul LePage will challenge Rep. Jared Golden for Maine's 2nd District
Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage announced Monday that he's running for the state's 2nd Congressional District seat.
www.wbur.org
May 6, 2025 at 6:02 PM
What a gift for Democrats. Golden would be a heavy favorite if he does run for reelection.
LePage only won CD2 towns by 2.8pts when he ran against Janet Mills in the 2022 gubernatorial election #mepolitics
LePage only won CD2 towns by 2.8pts when he ran against Janet Mills in the 2022 gubernatorial election #mepolitics
Reposted
I’m running for the US Senate because after nearly 30 years in DC, Susan Collins hasn’t changed the system – she’s part of it.
Join our campaign today: ElectJordan.com
Join our campaign today: ElectJordan.com
April 23, 2025 at 11:47 AM
I’m running for the US Senate because after nearly 30 years in DC, Susan Collins hasn’t changed the system – she’s part of it.
Join our campaign today: ElectJordan.com
Join our campaign today: ElectJordan.com
300 LV survey from February on the favorability of both Janet Mills and Susan Collins
Net Favorability
🟦Mills: +5
🟥Collins: -33
Lots of weird stuff in this small sample, but shows that 77y/o Mills may have a decent chance at ousting 72y/o Collins #mepolitics
Net Favorability
🟦Mills: +5
🟥Collins: -33
Lots of weird stuff in this small sample, but shows that 77y/o Mills may have a decent chance at ousting 72y/o Collins #mepolitics
April 18, 2025 at 1:07 PM
300 LV survey from February on the favorability of both Janet Mills and Susan Collins
Net Favorability
🟦Mills: +5
🟥Collins: -33
Lots of weird stuff in this small sample, but shows that 77y/o Mills may have a decent chance at ousting 72y/o Collins #mepolitics
Net Favorability
🟦Mills: +5
🟥Collins: -33
Lots of weird stuff in this small sample, but shows that 77y/o Mills may have a decent chance at ousting 72y/o Collins #mepolitics
Reposted
I'm Shenna Bellows, and I've fought for the people of Maine my entire life, from the campaign for marriage equality to the ACLU to the office of Secretary of State.
Today, I’m proud to announce that I’m running to be the next Governor of Maine! bellowsformaine.com
Today, I’m proud to announce that I’m running to be the next Governor of Maine! bellowsformaine.com
March 26, 2025 at 12:13 PM
I'm Shenna Bellows, and I've fought for the people of Maine my entire life, from the campaign for marriage equality to the ACLU to the office of Secretary of State.
Today, I’m proud to announce that I’m running to be the next Governor of Maine! bellowsformaine.com
Today, I’m proud to announce that I’m running to be the next Governor of Maine! bellowsformaine.com
Reposted
Can confirm “State of Maine” hasn’t apologized. (As the official keeper of all state records and guardian of the seal ;))
March 22, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Can confirm “State of Maine” hasn’t apologized. (As the official keeper of all state records and guardian of the seal ;))
More results from the UNH Pine Tree State Poll
61% of Republicans believe tariffs will increase prices. At the same time, 76% believe they will have a positive impact on the economy
Dems nearly unanimously believe tariffs will increase prices & hurt the economy
#mepolitics
61% of Republicans believe tariffs will increase prices. At the same time, 76% believe they will have a positive impact on the economy
Dems nearly unanimously believe tariffs will increase prices & hurt the economy
#mepolitics
February 21, 2025 at 5:13 PM
More results from the UNH Pine Tree State Poll
61% of Republicans believe tariffs will increase prices. At the same time, 76% believe they will have a positive impact on the economy
Dems nearly unanimously believe tariffs will increase prices & hurt the economy
#mepolitics
61% of Republicans believe tariffs will increase prices. At the same time, 76% believe they will have a positive impact on the economy
Dems nearly unanimously believe tariffs will increase prices & hurt the economy
#mepolitics
Democratic Governor Janet Mills will finish her 2nd and last term in 2026 leaving the seat open for many different possible candidates on both sides of the aisle (+Indys).
1958 was the last time the same party won three consecutive elections to the Maine governorship.
#mepolitics
1958 was the last time the same party won three consecutive elections to the Maine governorship.
#mepolitics
February 20, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Democratic Governor Janet Mills will finish her 2nd and last term in 2026 leaving the seat open for many different possible candidates on both sides of the aisle (+Indys).
1958 was the last time the same party won three consecutive elections to the Maine governorship.
#mepolitics
1958 was the last time the same party won three consecutive elections to the Maine governorship.
#mepolitics
A couple interesting notes in the UNH Pine Tree State Poll:
Trump net approval (-7) is basically the same as the Election Day result
More Mainers disapprove of Biden’s family pardons compared to Trumps J6 pardons
Trump has total Republican support in Maine #mepolitics
Trump net approval (-7) is basically the same as the Election Day result
More Mainers disapprove of Biden’s family pardons compared to Trumps J6 pardons
Trump has total Republican support in Maine #mepolitics
February 19, 2025 at 8:50 PM
A couple interesting notes in the UNH Pine Tree State Poll:
Trump net approval (-7) is basically the same as the Election Day result
More Mainers disapprove of Biden’s family pardons compared to Trumps J6 pardons
Trump has total Republican support in Maine #mepolitics
Trump net approval (-7) is basically the same as the Election Day result
More Mainers disapprove of Biden’s family pardons compared to Trumps J6 pardons
Trump has total Republican support in Maine #mepolitics
Very valuable database put together by SplitTicket using their candidate WAR model. Here are all the races since 2018 in Maine, excl. 2018 Senate. Collins is the clear standout in 2020. What caught my eye was that Bruce Poliquin actually had a positive WAR in 2018 against Golden #mepolitics
February 2, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Very valuable database put together by SplitTicket using their candidate WAR model. Here are all the races since 2018 in Maine, excl. 2018 Senate. Collins is the clear standout in 2020. What caught my eye was that Bruce Poliquin actually had a positive WAR in 2018 against Golden #mepolitics
Reposted
Here’s what to look for as Maine’s 2026 race for governor take shape
Here’s what to look for as Maine’s 2026 race for governor take shape
Speculation has already seeped into the public arena, with well-known political figures such as Rep. Jared Golden and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and potential dark horse candidates such as Tra...
www.pressherald.com
December 29, 2024 at 2:30 PM
Here’s what to look for as Maine’s 2026 race for governor take shape
Kennebec County in Maine has voted for the eventual winner in statewide races going all the way back to 2006. That's 17 consecutive races for Governor, Senator and President #mepolitics
December 14, 2024 at 4:08 PM
Kennebec County in Maine has voted for the eventual winner in statewide races going all the way back to 2006. That's 17 consecutive races for Governor, Senator and President #mepolitics
A lot of down ballot ticket splitting this year. Republicans did best in the ME House, winning 47.5% of the total vote and limiting the Dem margin to just 1.8pts. Not a perfect analysis due to Indys and uncontented races, but tells a story from election night #mepolitics
December 14, 2024 at 4:05 PM
A lot of down ballot ticket splitting this year. Republicans did best in the ME House, winning 47.5% of the total vote and limiting the Dem margin to just 1.8pts. Not a perfect analysis due to Indys and uncontented races, but tells a story from election night #mepolitics
There were 8 towns in Maine that went Trump 2016➡️Biden 2020➡️Trump 2024. Sanford, in the center of York County, is the largest of them. It's a former mill town that now has a population of over 20,000 #mepolitics
December 13, 2024 at 5:35 PM
There were 8 towns in Maine that went Trump 2016➡️Biden 2020➡️Trump 2024. Sanford, in the center of York County, is the largest of them. It's a former mill town that now has a population of over 20,000 #mepolitics