Mark Kamstra
@markkamstra.com
Economist, econometrician, empirical finance focused, photographer.
Wow. The Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology pension plan is a more dynamic than I would have ever guessed.
www.benefitscanada.com/pensions/gov...
www.benefitscanada.com/pensions/gov...
CAAT pension plan board chair removed amid ongoing governance emergency
Don Smith, the recently suspended chair of the Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology pension plan’s board of trustees, has been removed from his position following allegations of an improper executi...
www.benefitscanada.com
February 10, 2026 at 7:30 PM
Wow. The Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology pension plan is a more dynamic than I would have ever guessed.
www.benefitscanada.com/pensions/gov...
www.benefitscanada.com/pensions/gov...
Continued labour market weakness & corporate profit growth, the impact of AI concentrating wealth outcomes as better trained people lever AI better than others, & growing capital intensity accelerated by AI all make Universal Basic Income more and more inevitable. If social unrest is to be avoided.
February 10, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Continued labour market weakness & corporate profit growth, the impact of AI concentrating wealth outcomes as better trained people lever AI better than others, & growing capital intensity accelerated by AI all make Universal Basic Income more and more inevitable. If social unrest is to be avoided.
When I see an "asset" like bitcoin jump up 10% after months of big declines, I think "dead cat bounce".
February 6, 2026 at 4:25 PM
When I see an "asset" like bitcoin jump up 10% after months of big declines, I think "dead cat bounce".
Toronto, last Sunday after the big storm. These are two buildings in Yorkville, Toronto, maybe a block apart. I love Toronto.
January 31, 2026 at 3:47 AM
Toronto, last Sunday after the big storm. These are two buildings in Yorkville, Toronto, maybe a block apart. I love Toronto.
Reposted by Mark Kamstra
Another important paper, now in print at AER: "Potential" and the Gender Promotion Gap
🎯Subjective assessments of employee "potential" account for about half the gender promotion gap.
🎯 This is despite fact that women go on to outperform their male colleagues.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
🎯Subjective assessments of employee "potential" account for about half the gender promotion gap.
🎯 This is despite fact that women go on to outperform their male colleagues.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
January 30, 2026 at 9:17 PM
Another important paper, now in print at AER: "Potential" and the Gender Promotion Gap
🎯Subjective assessments of employee "potential" account for about half the gender promotion gap.
🎯 This is despite fact that women go on to outperform their male colleagues.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
🎯Subjective assessments of employee "potential" account for about half the gender promotion gap.
🎯 This is despite fact that women go on to outperform their male colleagues.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reposted by Mark Kamstra
Important paper alert, now in print at AER: "Gender Differences in Economics Seminars"
🎯 "Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men."
🎯 Women experience more "Interruptions that are negative in tenor or tone or cut off the presenter mid-sentence".
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
🎯 "Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men."
🎯 Women experience more "Interruptions that are negative in tenor or tone or cut off the presenter mid-sentence".
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
January 30, 2026 at 9:10 PM
Important paper alert, now in print at AER: "Gender Differences in Economics Seminars"
🎯 "Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men."
🎯 Women experience more "Interruptions that are negative in tenor or tone or cut off the presenter mid-sentence".
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
🎯 "Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men."
🎯 Women experience more "Interruptions that are negative in tenor or tone or cut off the presenter mid-sentence".
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
The cleanup in Toronto from last weekend's storm is not finished. It started well before the last few flakes had fallen, late on Sunday night.
January 31, 2026 at 3:33 AM
The cleanup in Toronto from last weekend's storm is not finished. It started well before the last few flakes had fallen, late on Sunday night.
With China's shrinking workforce, miniscule immigration, real estate bust, & focus on exports, we have echoes of Japan's economy in the late-80s. Selling EVs and solar panels & getting back IOUs in #$USD risks what Japan suffered; a bad trade - pennies on the $ when it is all said and done.
January 28, 2026 at 8:44 PM
With China's shrinking workforce, miniscule immigration, real estate bust, & focus on exports, we have echoes of Japan's economy in the late-80s. Selling EVs and solar panels & getting back IOUs in #$USD risks what Japan suffered; a bad trade - pennies on the $ when it is all said and done.
China has more than 100 EV makers, a result of a push by its leaders a decade ago to move into this strategic space. A classic over-reaction when the invisible hand of the market is slapped away in favor of central management. China was so promising 15 years ago, with that lighter touch, now gone.
January 28, 2026 at 8:32 PM
China has more than 100 EV makers, a result of a push by its leaders a decade ago to move into this strategic space. A classic over-reaction when the invisible hand of the market is slapped away in favor of central management. China was so promising 15 years ago, with that lighter touch, now gone.
The storm is hitting Toronto with impressive lake effect snowfall.
January 25, 2026 at 9:08 PM
The storm is hitting Toronto with impressive lake effect snowfall.
I have been reading about the excitement for Claude AI. This is starting to get real. Now we just need cheap energy to run all this stuff. The old days of running on caffeine and donuts are fading into the rear view.
www.anthropic.com/news/acceler...
www.anthropic.com/news/acceler...
How scientists are using Claude to accelerate research and discovery
Anthropic is an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems.
www.anthropic.com
January 18, 2026 at 4:43 PM
I have been reading about the excitement for Claude AI. This is starting to get real. Now we just need cheap energy to run all this stuff. The old days of running on caffeine and donuts are fading into the rear view.
www.anthropic.com/news/acceler...
www.anthropic.com/news/acceler...
Among the treats Grand Cayman were blue iguanas, endemic to Grand Cayman. The Mastic trail was where we spotted this guy, as well as the West Indian woodpecker. Both were pretty fearless.
January 17, 2026 at 4:17 AM
Among the treats Grand Cayman were blue iguanas, endemic to Grand Cayman. The Mastic trail was where we spotted this guy, as well as the West Indian woodpecker. Both were pretty fearless.
The weather in Toronto is very, well, Canadian right now. Remembering Grand Cayman, warm breezes, quiet nights. The beach in front of our retreat was swamped with plastic though, even some medical waste. There are beaches kept clean(er) on the island, and 7 mile was spotless.
January 17, 2026 at 4:02 AM
The weather in Toronto is very, well, Canadian right now. Remembering Grand Cayman, warm breezes, quiet nights. The beach in front of our retreat was swamped with plastic though, even some medical waste. There are beaches kept clean(er) on the island, and 7 mile was spotless.
The idea of letting Americans use their 401ks to make down payments on home purchases is terrible. Most people spend to the limit of their credit for a home, leading to over-investment, and when we encourage people to spend more, they will mostly push up home prices. Not solving affordability.
January 16, 2026 at 7:34 PM
The idea of letting Americans use their 401ks to make down payments on home purchases is terrible. Most people spend to the limit of their credit for a home, leading to over-investment, and when we encourage people to spend more, they will mostly push up home prices. Not solving affordability.
Occasionally I notice youtube photographers complaining about extenders for telephoto lenses. But telephoto lenses have a rear set of glass elements which spread the light out, just like extenders. A bad extender degrades quality, sure, just like a bad telephoto lens produces poor images.
January 9, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Occasionally I notice youtube photographers complaining about extenders for telephoto lenses. But telephoto lenses have a rear set of glass elements which spread the light out, just like extenders. A bad extender degrades quality, sure, just like a bad telephoto lens produces poor images.
We are deep into the academic econ and finance recruiting season, with schools starting to send out invitations for job talks (full day interview). A great, fairly new resource, free from strategic manipulation from job-seekers, lists most schools looking for recruits: www.aeaweb.org/econtrack/po...
American Economic Association
www.aeaweb.org
January 8, 2026 at 11:04 PM
We are deep into the academic econ and finance recruiting season, with schools starting to send out invitations for job talks (full day interview). A great, fairly new resource, free from strategic manipulation from job-seekers, lists most schools looking for recruits: www.aeaweb.org/econtrack/po...
Reposted by Mark Kamstra
Hey #Toronto, the @utoronto.ca medical bookstore appears to have over 3000 boxes of KN95 masks (20 masks/box) available for $0.01/box. Good time to stock up!
www.uoftmedstore.com/catalog.sz?p...
HT @cathycrowe.bsky.social who provides bookstore contact into here: bsky.app/profile/cath...
www.uoftmedstore.com/catalog.sz?p...
HT @cathycrowe.bsky.social who provides bookstore contact into here: bsky.app/profile/cath...
January 8, 2026 at 12:03 AM
Hey #Toronto, the @utoronto.ca medical bookstore appears to have over 3000 boxes of KN95 masks (20 masks/box) available for $0.01/box. Good time to stock up!
www.uoftmedstore.com/catalog.sz?p...
HT @cathycrowe.bsky.social who provides bookstore contact into here: bsky.app/profile/cath...
www.uoftmedstore.com/catalog.sz?p...
HT @cathycrowe.bsky.social who provides bookstore contact into here: bsky.app/profile/cath...
#ASSA2026 Proud of my student Elham Tabatabaei, on the job market, who was part of the AFA poster session with her great paper Mixed Messages by Firms’ Managers: An Exploration into the Strategic Use of Tonal Inconsistency across
Managerial Financial Communications papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Managerial Financial Communications papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Mixed Messages: Strategic Tonal Inconsistency and Recovery of the PEAD Anomaly
<div>
Using conference call transcripts and contemporaneous press releases, I document that inconsistent managerial tone across these communication channels re
papers.ssrn.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:48 PM
#ASSA2026 Proud of my student Elham Tabatabaei, on the job market, who was part of the AFA poster session with her great paper Mixed Messages by Firms’ Managers: An Exploration into the Strategic Use of Tonal Inconsistency across
Managerial Financial Communications papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Managerial Financial Communications papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#assa2026 Lots of interesting AI and LLM papers - these tools are opening up the quantification of qualitative information. “Mental models and … “ by Bastianello et al was a good example, using analysts valuation reports to find impacts from biases (and more). papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Mental Models and Financial Forecasts
<p><span>We uncover the mental models financial professionals use to explain their quantitative forecasts, and show how they shape beliefs and return predictabi
papers.ssrn.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:32 PM
#assa2026 Lots of interesting AI and LLM papers - these tools are opening up the quantification of qualitative information. “Mental models and … “ by Bastianello et al was a good example, using analysts valuation reports to find impacts from biases (and more). papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Mark Kamstra
Tomorrow my co-author Vicki Bogan will present our paper “Intergenerational Race-Based Trauma and Financial Market Participation” at #ASSA2026 in a session she is chairing: “Investigating Racial Inequality through Historical Data and Events”
Sun. Jan. 4, 2:30-4:30
www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...,
Sun. Jan. 4, 2:30-4:30
www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...,
January 3, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Tomorrow my co-author Vicki Bogan will present our paper “Intergenerational Race-Based Trauma and Financial Market Participation” at #ASSA2026 in a session she is chairing: “Investigating Racial Inequality through Historical Data and Events”
Sun. Jan. 4, 2:30-4:30
www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...,
Sun. Jan. 4, 2:30-4:30
www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...,
Year-end round-ups have been unkind to crypto bros, with caveats like Wall Street has joined in lending legitimacy. But all that confirms is pros know how to make money off of rubes. Upsides? It is as likely to go up as down next year as crypto has no intrinsic value. Until it fades into obscurity.
January 2, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Year-end round-ups have been unkind to crypto bros, with caveats like Wall Street has joined in lending legitimacy. But all that confirms is pros know how to make money off of rubes. Upsides? It is as likely to go up as down next year as crypto has no intrinsic value. Until it fades into obscurity.
Travelling today and reminded of the trouble people with food allergies have. I am celiac and, by choice, vegan (I should probably say plant-based to avoid haters - vegans are almost as hated as atheists). I can get gluten free meals and I can get vegan on AC but not both. Would it be so hard?
January 1, 2026 at 5:31 PM
Travelling today and reminded of the trouble people with food allergies have. I am celiac and, by choice, vegan (I should probably say plant-based to avoid haters - vegans are almost as hated as atheists). I can get gluten free meals and I can get vegan on AC but not both. Would it be so hard?
Thinking about the declining supply of movies for theatres, with Netflix, Apple, Disney, etc., not having an incentive to distribute. I think they will take equity stakes in theatre chains and have parallel releases with discounts for subscribers.
January 1, 2026 at 4:44 PM
Thinking about the declining supply of movies for theatres, with Netflix, Apple, Disney, etc., not having an incentive to distribute. I think they will take equity stakes in theatre chains and have parallel releases with discounts for subscribers.
During this lull between Xmas and New Years I am reminded of the first few American Economic meetings I went to, an annual conference that was held between Xmas and New Year's until the 1990s, because it was cheaper and hey, what else do we have to do? Now we wait until the weekend after New Year's.
December 31, 2025 at 1:54 PM
During this lull between Xmas and New Years I am reminded of the first few American Economic meetings I went to, an annual conference that was held between Xmas and New Year's until the 1990s, because it was cheaper and hey, what else do we have to do? Now we wait until the weekend after New Year's.
The city of Toronto is appointing a traffic czar to handle congestion. I am unsure why, as recent increases in congestion are by design, eliminating traffic lanes, making key east-west routes single lane or restricted to public transit. I thought the point was to encourage bicycling/public transit.
December 30, 2025 at 9:07 PM
The city of Toronto is appointing a traffic czar to handle congestion. I am unsure why, as recent increases in congestion are by design, eliminating traffic lanes, making key east-west routes single lane or restricted to public transit. I thought the point was to encourage bicycling/public transit.