Martin Aragoneses
@maragoneses.bsky.social
Reposted by Martin Aragoneses
🚨Call for Papers🚨
The next SED meeting will be held June 26-28, 2025, in Copenhagen!
Submit your paper here: editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conf...
before Feb 15
Julieta Caunedo and I are the Program Chairs
The next SED meeting will be held June 26-28, 2025, in Copenhagen!
Submit your paper here: editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conf...
before Feb 15
Julieta Caunedo and I are the Program Chairs
https://editorialexpress.com/conference/SED…
January 2, 2025 at 12:52 AM
🚨Call for Papers🚨
The next SED meeting will be held June 26-28, 2025, in Copenhagen!
Submit your paper here: editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conf...
before Feb 15
Julieta Caunedo and I are the Program Chairs
The next SED meeting will be held June 26-28, 2025, in Copenhagen!
Submit your paper here: editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conf...
before Feb 15
Julieta Caunedo and I are the Program Chairs
Reposted by Martin Aragoneses
Tom Sargent honoris causa at di Tella University in Buenos Aires.
December 12, 2024 at 12:28 PM
Tom Sargent honoris causa at di Tella University in Buenos Aires.
#econsky I'm thrilled to announce I'm moving to Paris!🇫🇷
I've accepted an offer to join @insead.bsky.social as an Assistant Professor of Finance
I'm so grateful to my advisors, friends, and family who helped me navigate challenging times. So excited to join a wonderful group!
I've accepted an offer to join @insead.bsky.social as an Assistant Professor of Finance
I'm so grateful to my advisors, friends, and family who helped me navigate challenging times. So excited to join a wonderful group!
February 22, 2024 at 7:31 PM
#econsky I'm thrilled to announce I'm moving to Paris!🇫🇷
I've accepted an offer to join @insead.bsky.social as an Assistant Professor of Finance
I'm so grateful to my advisors, friends, and family who helped me navigate challenging times. So excited to join a wonderful group!
I've accepted an offer to join @insead.bsky.social as an Assistant Professor of Finance
I'm so grateful to my advisors, friends, and family who helped me navigate challenging times. So excited to join a wonderful group!
Reposted by Martin Aragoneses
Twitter is now full of rightwing nuts and EJMR mentions. I know it was going down hill but this is probably the last straw.
December 11, 2023 at 4:38 AM
Twitter is now full of rightwing nuts and EJMR mentions. I know it was going down hill but this is probably the last straw.
Twitter really has gone down in quality quite a bit… please don’t stop the memes, we need some laughs during these times!
December 11, 2023 at 4:46 AM
Twitter really has gone down in quality quite a bit… please don’t stop the memes, we need some laughs during these times!
#econsky 📉📈
Please help me share my JMP titled
* The Firm Life Cycle Origins of the Aggregate Investment Puzzle *
🧵 above + abstract + link to paper website here:
sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...
Please help me share my JMP titled
* The Firm Life Cycle Origins of the Aggregate Investment Puzzle *
🧵 above + abstract + link to paper website here:
sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...
December 4, 2023 at 6:15 PM
#econsky 📉📈
Please help me share my JMP titled
* The Firm Life Cycle Origins of the Aggregate Investment Puzzle *
🧵 above + abstract + link to paper website here:
sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...
Please help me share my JMP titled
* The Firm Life Cycle Origins of the Aggregate Investment Puzzle *
🧵 above + abstract + link to paper website here:
sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...
let me end JMP 🧵 w/ optimistic note
Since 2010 US Census shows startup resurgence!
Even accelerated thru COVID!!
Why? Has startup deficit ended? I'm investigating this...
JMP shows startup surging across OECD countries
along with investment / profits like in my model
Since 2010 US Census shows startup resurgence!
Even accelerated thru COVID!!
Why? Has startup deficit ended? I'm investigating this...
JMP shows startup surging across OECD countries
along with investment / profits like in my model
December 4, 2023 at 6:14 PM
let me end JMP 🧵 w/ optimistic note
Since 2010 US Census shows startup resurgence!
Even accelerated thru COVID!!
Why? Has startup deficit ended? I'm investigating this...
JMP shows startup surging across OECD countries
along with investment / profits like in my model
Since 2010 US Census shows startup resurgence!
Even accelerated thru COVID!!
Why? Has startup deficit ended? I'm investigating this...
JMP shows startup surging across OECD countries
along with investment / profits like in my model
JMP 🧵 9/ In many models profitable firms invest more
In life cycle models, startups shifts GDP
from YOUNG firms front-loading investment to grow
to OLD firms back-loading profits rewarding past investment
Generating ⬆️ profits ⬇️ investment in macro data!
In life cycle models, startups shifts GDP
from YOUNG firms front-loading investment to grow
to OLD firms back-loading profits rewarding past investment
Generating ⬆️ profits ⬇️ investment in macro data!
December 4, 2023 at 6:13 PM
JMP 🧵 9/ In many models profitable firms invest more
In life cycle models, startups shifts GDP
from YOUNG firms front-loading investment to grow
to OLD firms back-loading profits rewarding past investment
Generating ⬆️ profits ⬇️ investment in macro data!
In life cycle models, startups shifts GDP
from YOUNG firms front-loading investment to grow
to OLD firms back-loading profits rewarding past investment
Generating ⬆️ profits ⬇️ investment in macro data!
JMP 🧵 8/ S&D economics
I solved the life cycle investment model in closed-form!
startup rates shifted *both* supply & demand
S: yes, r* should have stimulated I/Y but...
D: firm aging depressed investment demand even more
=> "unintuitive" r & I/Y covariance
I solved the life cycle investment model in closed-form!
startup rates shifted *both* supply & demand
S: yes, r* should have stimulated I/Y but...
D: firm aging depressed investment demand even more
=> "unintuitive" r & I/Y covariance
December 4, 2023 at 6:11 PM
JMP 🧵 8/ S&D economics
I solved the life cycle investment model in closed-form!
startup rates shifted *both* supply & demand
S: yes, r* should have stimulated I/Y but...
D: firm aging depressed investment demand even more
=> "unintuitive" r & I/Y covariance
I solved the life cycle investment model in closed-form!
startup rates shifted *both* supply & demand
S: yes, r* should have stimulated I/Y but...
D: firm aging depressed investment demand even more
=> "unintuitive" r & I/Y covariance
JMP 🧵 7/ fewer startups => lower rates r*
Why did interest rates not stimulate investment?
Because startup rate had 2 effects
PE: Firm aging, depressing investment I/Y
GE: Slower consumption growth, depressing r*
Model fits data best when firms are insensitive to r*
Why did interest rates not stimulate investment?
Because startup rate had 2 effects
PE: Firm aging, depressing investment I/Y
GE: Slower consumption growth, depressing r*
Model fits data best when firms are insensitive to r*
December 4, 2023 at 6:10 PM
JMP 🧵 7/ fewer startups => lower rates r*
Why did interest rates not stimulate investment?
Because startup rate had 2 effects
PE: Firm aging, depressing investment I/Y
GE: Slower consumption growth, depressing r*
Model fits data best when firms are insensitive to r*
Why did interest rates not stimulate investment?
Because startup rate had 2 effects
PE: Firm aging, depressing investment I/Y
GE: Slower consumption growth, depressing r*
Model fits data best when firms are insensitive to r*
JMP 🧵 6/ life cycle origins of the investment puzzle
Since 80s startup activity collapsed...
firms got older!
Investment declined despite rising profits in macro data
Why didn't profitability stimulate investment?
Life cycle economics:
Higher profits reward past investment!
Since 80s startup activity collapsed...
firms got older!
Investment declined despite rising profits in macro data
Why didn't profitability stimulate investment?
Life cycle economics:
Higher profits reward past investment!
December 4, 2023 at 6:08 PM
JMP 🧵 6/ life cycle origins of the investment puzzle
Since 80s startup activity collapsed...
firms got older!
Investment declined despite rising profits in macro data
Why didn't profitability stimulate investment?
Life cycle economics:
Higher profits reward past investment!
Since 80s startup activity collapsed...
firms got older!
Investment declined despite rising profits in macro data
Why didn't profitability stimulate investment?
Life cycle economics:
Higher profits reward past investment!
JMP 🧵 5/ life cycle origins of investment
I find the investment puzzle is actually not so puzzling...
once the model experiences historical startup rates!
From WWII to mid-70s: Startup rate
Peak ~Microsoft/Apple launched
firms turned younger!
and investment/GDP boomed!
I find the investment puzzle is actually not so puzzling...
once the model experiences historical startup rates!
From WWII to mid-70s: Startup rate
Peak ~Microsoft/Apple launched
firms turned younger!
and investment/GDP boomed!
December 4, 2023 at 6:07 PM
JMP 🧵 5/ life cycle origins of investment
I find the investment puzzle is actually not so puzzling...
once the model experiences historical startup rates!
From WWII to mid-70s: Startup rate
Peak ~Microsoft/Apple launched
firms turned younger!
and investment/GDP boomed!
I find the investment puzzle is actually not so puzzling...
once the model experiences historical startup rates!
From WWII to mid-70s: Startup rate
Peak ~Microsoft/Apple launched
firms turned younger!
and investment/GDP boomed!
JMP 🧵 4/ neoclassical theory of the investment puzzle
I add investment to my favorite model (Hopenhayn '92)
+ force it to match US Census firm life cycle dynamics!
How?
I propose a calibration method I found useful:
Matching the terms in the formula I used for empirics!
I add investment to my favorite model (Hopenhayn '92)
+ force it to match US Census firm life cycle dynamics!
How?
I propose a calibration method I found useful:
Matching the terms in the formula I used for empirics!
December 4, 2023 at 6:06 PM
JMP 🧵 4/ neoclassical theory of the investment puzzle
I add investment to my favorite model (Hopenhayn '92)
+ force it to match US Census firm life cycle dynamics!
How?
I propose a calibration method I found useful:
Matching the terms in the formula I used for empirics!
I add investment to my favorite model (Hopenhayn '92)
+ force it to match US Census firm life cycle dynamics!
How?
I propose a calibration method I found useful:
Matching the terms in the formula I used for empirics!
JMP 🧵 3/ missing investment boom
Literature tried to come up with "micro" reasons why firms invest less
But...
Census shows firm-level investment given age boomed!
Do you think business/VC world think investment fell? No
Firm aging likely made macro fall despite micro boom
Literature tried to come up with "micro" reasons why firms invest less
But...
Census shows firm-level investment given age boomed!
Do you think business/VC world think investment fell? No
Firm aging likely made macro fall despite micro boom
December 4, 2023 at 6:05 PM
JMP 🧵 3/ missing investment boom
Literature tried to come up with "micro" reasons why firms invest less
But...
Census shows firm-level investment given age boomed!
Do you think business/VC world think investment fell? No
Firm aging likely made macro fall despite micro boom
Literature tried to come up with "micro" reasons why firms invest less
But...
Census shows firm-level investment given age boomed!
Do you think business/VC world think investment fell? No
Firm aging likely made macro fall despite micro boom
JMP 🧵 2/ firm aging depressed macro investment!
Firm aging predicts puzzling Investment/GDP decline
Why? Confidential Census micro data shows:
A. economy has shifted from young to old firms
B. older firms invest less intensely, but more profitable?
I build a formula with A + B
Firm aging predicts puzzling Investment/GDP decline
Why? Confidential Census micro data shows:
A. economy has shifted from young to old firms
B. older firms invest less intensely, but more profitable?
I build a formula with A + B
December 4, 2023 at 6:04 PM
JMP 🧵 2/ firm aging depressed macro investment!
Firm aging predicts puzzling Investment/GDP decline
Why? Confidential Census micro data shows:
A. economy has shifted from young to old firms
B. older firms invest less intensely, but more profitable?
I build a formula with A + B
Firm aging predicts puzzling Investment/GDP decline
Why? Confidential Census micro data shows:
A. economy has shifted from young to old firms
B. older firms invest less intensely, but more profitable?
I build a formula with A + B
JMP 🧵1/ startups matter for macro!
I spent years fascinated by a missing investment puzzle: Why did macro investment ⬇️ if profitability ⬆️?
I found firms' investment boomed! Boom missing in macro data because:
⬇️startup rate
⬆️firm age
#econsky 📉📈 please share: sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...
I spent years fascinated by a missing investment puzzle: Why did macro investment ⬇️ if profitability ⬆️?
I found firms' investment boomed! Boom missing in macro data because:
⬇️startup rate
⬆️firm age
#econsky 📉📈 please share: sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...
December 4, 2023 at 6:03 PM
JMP 🧵1/ startups matter for macro!
I spent years fascinated by a missing investment puzzle: Why did macro investment ⬇️ if profitability ⬆️?
I found firms' investment boomed! Boom missing in macro data because:
⬇️startup rate
⬆️firm age
#econsky 📉📈 please share: sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...
I spent years fascinated by a missing investment puzzle: Why did macro investment ⬇️ if profitability ⬆️?
I found firms' investment boomed! Boom missing in macro data because:
⬇️startup rate
⬆️firm age
#econsky 📉📈 please share: sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...
Reposted by Martin Aragoneses
Friendly reminder that if you are new to Bluesky, you should go into your settings and turn off the setting that hides replies with fewer than 2-3 likes. The site is still small enough that keeping that setting on means you will miss a LOT of content you likely wanted to see.
I have been noticing that the first post of a thread will get decent engagement while the rest will often get zero and I'm wondering if people still have that "see only replies with (X) likes" setting turned on
How are we generally doing threads on here? Actual threads, or self-RTing with the follow on? Don't want my three followers to miss out on the good stuff simply because I'm not posting in a manner that they can see due to their timeline settings
November 20, 2023 at 1:52 PM
Friendly reminder that if you are new to Bluesky, you should go into your settings and turn off the setting that hides replies with fewer than 2-3 likes. The site is still small enough that keeping that setting on means you will miss a LOT of content you likely wanted to see.