In this video, I discuss the American peace plan and ultimatum to Ukraine. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Donald Trump has issued a strong ultimatum to Ukraine, which must agree to a framework for a peace deal before Thanksgiving, which is on Thursday. This is dramatic, so let's talk about it. The Trump administration, together with the Russians, has developed a 28-point peace plan, which they have presented to Ukraine. They have stated

In this video, I discuss the deal apparently negotiated between Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev about peace between Russia and Ukraine. It's pretty much just a list of maximalist Russian demands, and it's hard to see what Ukraine gets out of it. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, I just want to share some thoughts on all the talk that there is right now about whether the Trump administration has, together with the Russians, made a new

In this video, I discuss the recent acts of sabotage on Polish railways. It's another step in Russia's hybrid escalation, and I don't think it has received the attention in Western media that it deserves. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, in this video I want to quickly talk about the railroad sabotage that has happened in Poland over the weekend. Usually I use the Danish media as a kind of proxy for what gets coverage in the West but we've had

By Alexander With Despite a long series of hybrid attacks against Europe, European governments have been remarkably cautious in their response. Not all incidents with clear Russian fingerprints have been officially attributed to Moscow. Others have been attributed, but even then, retaliation has rarely gone beyond words. Russia, never easily deterred by rhetoric alone, has continued its hybrid campaign unabated. Europe and NATO have, so far, failed to deter hybrid aggression—or at least, faile

In this video, I answer your questions. Unfortunately, I was not able to answer all of them, because there were just too many. But I tried to cover as much ground as possible. There is a transcript below, but in this case I recommend listening to the video instead. The transcript is just so long for me to go through it manually. Best, Anders Transcript: Note: Usually, I verify the manuscripts manually, but with this one that has not been possible because it's just too long. So take it for w

What questions should I answer in my next YouTube video? Submit your questions in the comments section to this post. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. For a while I've been thinking about sometimes trying to change the format on my YouTube videos and include some Q&A videos where people can ask me questions and I will just answer those. And now, having been unable to upload videos for a few weeks due to the book launch and all those things, I'm kind of behind on all the developments and there are

In this video, I discuss the dramatic situation around the city of Pokrovsk and whether it's time for Ukraine to leave the city. The answer could very well be yes, but I also think some analysts have a tendency to call for Ukrainian withdrawals prematurely. It’s very hard to get the timing right for those things. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders. Transcript: Hi, it's been a while since I made a video. The reason is it's just been an absolutely crazy busy perio

By Alexander With: Russia is waging a hybrid war against NATO in general, and in particular against the European countries that are most actively helping Ukraine. The war is being fought with every tool in the Russian toolbox, including, but not limited to, sabotage, cyberattacks, subversion, violations of sovereignty, fake news, and threats. It is a war beneath the threshold of conventional war. Attacks are common, but they rarely cause casualties. Instead, they cause fear, uncertainty, and ec

In this video, I discuss the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky on Friday. Trump failed to take the tough stance on Russia that the European leaders apparently thought he would, and instead we are back to him repeating Russian talking points. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, I thought I'd do a quick video on the Trump-Zelensky meeting that happened on Friday and the reactions to it afterwards and where it leaves Ukraine and Europ

Earlier this year, Alexander With and I wrote a chapter in an anthology about the Russian military following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We focused on the maritime aspect, while colleagues from the Royal Danish Defence College and other Danish academic institutions contributed chapters on other topics. The book was released in Danish in the spring, and now it's available in English as well. The good news is that the English version is an ebook and completely free (unlike the Danish edit

In this video, I discuss whether the United States will provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, what difference it would make in the war if they do, and whether Tomahawk is really the right capability for Ukraine if you want to achieve the most military effect. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. In this video, I want to talk about Tomahawk missiles. There is a lot of talk about Tomahawk missiles right now. There are many discussions about how the U

In this video, I discuss why Putin did not accept Trump's offer of a peace deal back in the spring when the American president was presenting him with a variety of important concessions. Instead, he rejected the proposals. Several high-profile YouTubers have recently argued that Putin made a big mistake. However, I think they overestimate the extent to which such a deal was ever realistically an option on the table for Putin. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders. T

In this video, I discuss President Zelensky's announcement that attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter will be met with similar attacks on the Russian power grid. This is interesting because it means that Ukraine is venturing into the area of military deterrence rather than just ongoing warfighting, and it indicates that the power balance may be shifting in Ukraine's favor. It may also explain why we haven't seen Ukraine's powerful Flamingo missiles in more extensive use since th

By Alexander With International law has long been an important regulator of wars and conflicts, but recent developments have weakened it to the point where it is now fighting for its relevancy. To the detriment of Europe – and the United States. The laws regulating the conduct of war (jus in bello) and the circumstances under which wars can be fought (jus ad bellum) can be seen as an attempt to limit suffering and cruelty in wars, as well as to prevent wars from being fought in the first place

Drone sightings in Denmark appear to be the next iteration of Russia's hybrid war against Western Europe. In this video, I discuss what happened, reflect on the public reaction, and ponder how Western European populations seem unprepared for what likely lies ahead. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. In this video, I want to talk a bit about the drone sightings that have happened in Denmark and the public reaction to it and what I think it says ab

This week, Denmark decided to procure long-range precision missiles in what the Prime Minister has called a paradigm shift in Danish military thinking. This decision has sparked a debate in Denmark that inspired me to make this video. It seems that many people do not fully understand the crucial role that long-range missiles play in modern warfare and the disadvantage Western Europe currently faces in the event of a war with Russia. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Ande

By Alexander With The highly anticipated Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023 ended with pictures of burning Western-made tanks and a clear Ukrainian defeat. The Ukrainians, equipped with modern Western armour and having undergone Western training, were expected to punch through the lines and cut the Russian defences in two. I covered the lack of successful usage of tanks in this war in a previous post. The question in this article is whether the tank is dead, or whether NATO could overcome the p

In this video, I discuss the Russian drones in Poland, and what an appropriate response would be from NATO. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, it's been a couple of days since Russia launched a number of drones over Poland, and I thought I'd share my thoughts about it. First, what happened? Well, a number of drones, I've heard anything between 19 and 25 drones were sent by Russia into Polish airspace. A number of them came over Ukraine and a numbe

In this video, I reflect on the discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine and explain why they are still immature. It's good that there is now a focus on security guarantees rather than Ukraine needing to make territorial concessions. However, it is a significant mistake to view Ukrainian security as independent of broader questions about European security as a whole. Western Europe needs Ukraine as much as Ukraine needs Western Europe. This point was illustrated quite vividly with the R

In this video, I discuss why security guarantees for Ukraine must go beyond just defeating Russian aggression on Ukrainian territory. The key to deterrence is to ensure that Russia faces the threat of uncontrollable escalation if it ever attacks again – and that requires Western countries to think about horizontal escalation. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, in this video I want to quickly talk about security guarantees. It's again all over the

By Alexander With The Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan was an omen of things to come. Azerbaijan used Turkish-produced drones to devastating effect against Armenian tanks, securing an impressive victory in just 44 days. However, it was the war in Ukraine that truly became the world’s first large-scale “drone war.” The use of drones in this conflict has grown exponentially. In December 2023, Ukraine produced more drones than in all of 2022 combined. In 2024, Ukraine p

In this video, I discuss a new phenomenon on the front lines in Ukraine, where it appears to be easier for both sides to penetrate the front line and suddenly appear in the rear areas of the enemy. A large part of the reason is manpower shortages, but it is also a deliberate strategy to remove soldiers from the front line as much as possible. This means that we need to understand the front line much more as a large gray zone than a distinct line on a map. Watch the video here or read a transcri

In this video, I discuss the meetings in Alaska and Washington, D.C. about the peace process for Ukraine. I think many people have been too quick to declare the Alaska meeting a victory for Putin. It's interesting how Trump insists on claiming that Putin made concessions he clearly did not make. Either Trump doesn't understand the issues at all, or it's a sophisticated negotiation strategy that resembles entrapment. In either case, it might become a problem for Putin. Watch the video here or re

In this video I discuss the outcome of the summit in Alaska. Most people seem to agree that Putin came out as a winner, but I am not so sure. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Transcript: Hi, so we got through the summit in Alaska and I just wanted to add my comments. First, what came out of it? I think in the big picture, nothing came out of it. And that is a good result. I think the big concern was that we were going to see Trump and Putin starting to draw lines on a map

By Alexander With During the summer holidays, I read "The Watchman Fell Asleep: The Surprise of Yom Kippur and its sources” by Uri Bar-Joseph, which delves into the surprise attack on Israel that started the Yom Kippur War in 1973. There are several lessons from that war which could also be relevant today in a Russia-NATO scenario: * Israel had excellent intelligence indicating that Egypt and Syria were planning to attack. The problem wasn’t a lack of intelligence, but a lack of willingness