Liam Karr
@liamkarr.bsky.social
Africa Team Lead for @criticalthreats
Focus on security challenges in sub-Saharan Africa. Opinions are my own. Reposts, follows, and likes ≠ endorsements.
Focus on security challenges in sub-Saharan Africa. Opinions are my own. Reposts, follows, and likes ≠ endorsements.
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | The RSF captured el Fasher after an 18-month siege, solidifying a de facto partition in Sudan.
The Emirati-backed RSF is committing war crimes that are likely crimes against humanity & possibly acts of ethnic cleansing.
Details in the Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/sud...
The Emirati-backed RSF is committing war crimes that are likely crimes against humanity & possibly acts of ethnic cleansing.
Details in the Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/sud...
October 30, 2025 at 5:44 PM
NEW | The RSF captured el Fasher after an 18-month siege, solidifying a de facto partition in Sudan.
The Emirati-backed RSF is committing war crimes that are likely crimes against humanity & possibly acts of ethnic cleansing.
Details in the Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/sud...
The Emirati-backed RSF is committing war crimes that are likely crimes against humanity & possibly acts of ethnic cleansing.
Details in the Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/sud...
Reposted by Liam Karr
"Analysis by the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) outlined how Russia is filling a vacuum left by former colonizers, France, and capitalizing on recent conflicts and autocratic regimes that mirror Moscow's." @newsweek.com newsweek.com/russia-afric...
August 8, 2025 at 1:28 PM
"Analysis by the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) outlined how Russia is filling a vacuum left by former colonizers, France, and capitalizing on recent conflicts and autocratic regimes that mirror Moscow's." @newsweek.com newsweek.com/russia-afric...
Reposted by Liam Karr
With the United States looking to restart its peace efforts in Sudan, @liamkarr.bsky.social writes that the US has an opportunity to secure a key security objective and humanitarian victory. 🧵
Read more here: realclearworld.com/articles/202...
Read more here: realclearworld.com/articles/202...
July 25, 2025 at 4:26 PM
With the United States looking to restart its peace efforts in Sudan, @liamkarr.bsky.social writes that the US has an opportunity to secure a key security objective and humanitarian victory. 🧵
Read more here: realclearworld.com/articles/202...
Read more here: realclearworld.com/articles/202...
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | Al Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate JNIM overran Djibo on May 11 in one of its largest ever attacks in Burkina Faso.
JNIM is strengthening while civilians are bearing the brunt of Russian-backed junta leader Ibrahim Traoré's brutal & ineffective regime. 🧵
JNIM is strengthening while civilians are bearing the brunt of Russian-backed junta leader Ibrahim Traoré's brutal & ineffective regime. 🧵
May 12, 2025 at 2:16 PM
NEW | Al Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate JNIM overran Djibo on May 11 in one of its largest ever attacks in Burkina Faso.
JNIM is strengthening while civilians are bearing the brunt of Russian-backed junta leader Ibrahim Traoré's brutal & ineffective regime. 🧵
JNIM is strengthening while civilians are bearing the brunt of Russian-backed junta leader Ibrahim Traoré's brutal & ineffective regime. 🧵
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate, JNIM, carried out its deadliest-ever attack in Benin as it continues to increase the lethality of its operations in Benin in 2025.
More on the JNIM campaign and its implications from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
More on the JNIM campaign and its implications from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
April 24, 2025 at 4:15 PM
NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate, JNIM, carried out its deadliest-ever attack in Benin as it continues to increase the lethality of its operations in Benin in 2025.
More on the JNIM campaign and its implications from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
More on the JNIM campaign and its implications from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | Al Shabaab captured two key areas in central Somalia as it continues to gain momentum.
Al Shabaab's gains have set conditions to undo the US-backed Somali counterterrorism offensive in 2022.
More from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 1/8 🧵
Al Shabaab's gains have set conditions to undo the US-backed Somali counterterrorism offensive in 2022.
More from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 1/8 🧵
April 18, 2025 at 1:05 PM
NEW | Al Shabaab captured two key areas in central Somalia as it continues to gain momentum.
Al Shabaab's gains have set conditions to undo the US-backed Somali counterterrorism offensive in 2022.
More from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 1/8 🧵
Al Shabaab's gains have set conditions to undo the US-backed Somali counterterrorism offensive in 2022.
More from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 1/8 🧵
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | The Rapid Support Forces has committed war crimes as it has intensified efforts to consolidate control over western Sudan.
RSF atrocities include attacks on the Zamzam refugee camp and are possibly constituent acts of ethnic cleansing or genocide. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
RSF atrocities include attacks on the Zamzam refugee camp and are possibly constituent acts of ethnic cleansing or genocide. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
April 17, 2025 at 6:06 PM
NEW | The Rapid Support Forces has committed war crimes as it has intensified efforts to consolidate control over western Sudan.
RSF atrocities include attacks on the Zamzam refugee camp and are possibly constituent acts of ethnic cleansing or genocide. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
RSF atrocities include attacks on the Zamzam refugee camp and are possibly constituent acts of ethnic cleansing or genocide. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | External meddling in Sudan shows no signs of stopping amid the country’s now two-year civil war.
US partners such as the UAE, as well as US adversaries such as Iran and Russia, threaten US interests in the Red Sea by fueling the war. (1/6)
US partners such as the UAE, as well as US adversaries such as Iran and Russia, threaten US interests in the Red Sea by fueling the war. (1/6)
April 15, 2025 at 3:40 PM
NEW | External meddling in Sudan shows no signs of stopping amid the country’s now two-year civil war.
US partners such as the UAE, as well as US adversaries such as Iran and Russia, threaten US interests in the Red Sea by fueling the war. (1/6)
US partners such as the UAE, as well as US adversaries such as Iran and Russia, threaten US interests in the Red Sea by fueling the war. (1/6)
Check out my op-ed for @thehill.com on the "security-for-minerals" discussions between the Democratic Republic of the Congo & the United States.
The potential risks & costs are high, and the extent of the benefits is unclear. Here's what US officials should consider: thehill.com/opinion/inte... 🧵
The potential risks & costs are high, and the extent of the benefits is unclear. Here's what US officials should consider: thehill.com/opinion/inte... 🧵
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5236163-congo-us-mineral-deal-risk/⬇️
April 9, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Check out my op-ed for @thehill.com on the "security-for-minerals" discussions between the Democratic Republic of the Congo & the United States.
The potential risks & costs are high, and the extent of the benefits is unclear. Here's what US officials should consider: thehill.com/opinion/inte... 🧵
The potential risks & costs are high, and the extent of the benefits is unclear. Here's what US officials should consider: thehill.com/opinion/inte... 🧵
Reposted by Liam Karr
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) juntas lashed out against China in their latest crackdown on allegedly exploitative international investment.
This move marks an expansion of the juntas' pro-sovereignty economic campaign beyond Western mining companies. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
This move marks an expansion of the juntas' pro-sovereignty economic campaign beyond Western mining companies. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
April 7, 2025 at 1:55 PM
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) juntas lashed out against China in their latest crackdown on allegedly exploitative international investment.
This move marks an expansion of the juntas' pro-sovereignty economic campaign beyond Western mining companies. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
This move marks an expansion of the juntas' pro-sovereignty economic campaign beyond Western mining companies. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
Reposted by Liam Karr
The Congolese army & allied militias recaptured the district capital Walikale town after M23 withdrew. The retreat reduces M23’s leverage entering Qatari-mediated negotiations with the DRC and could indicate the group is facing capacity and supply challenges.🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
April 4, 2025 at 1:04 PM
The Congolese army & allied militias recaptured the district capital Walikale town after M23 withdrew. The retreat reduces M23’s leverage entering Qatari-mediated negotiations with the DRC and could indicate the group is facing capacity and supply challenges.🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
Some notable takeaways from Gen. Langley's posture statement to the US Senate today that shed light on the Trump admin's priorities in Africa:
- Russia is not mentioned. China got a whole section.
- A paragraph is devoted to AFRICOM's efforts to support US investment in critical minerals. 🧵
- Russia is not mentioned. China got a whole section.
- A paragraph is devoted to AFRICOM's efforts to support US investment in critical minerals. 🧵
April 3, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Some notable takeaways from Gen. Langley's posture statement to the US Senate today that shed light on the Trump admin's priorities in Africa:
- Russia is not mentioned. China got a whole section.
- A paragraph is devoted to AFRICOM's efforts to support US investment in critical minerals. 🧵
- Russia is not mentioned. China got a whole section.
- A paragraph is devoted to AFRICOM's efforts to support US investment in critical minerals. 🧵
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationship with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and possibly threaten NATO's southern flank. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and possibly threaten NATO's southern flank. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
April 3, 2025 at 5:32 PM
NEW | The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationship with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and possibly threaten NATO's southern flank. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and possibly threaten NATO's southern flank. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) fully retook central Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a major military and political victory for the SAF.
What it means for Sudan's civil war: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
What it means for Sudan's civil war: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
March 27, 2025 at 5:38 PM
NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) fully retook central Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a major military and political victory for the SAF.
What it means for Sudan's civil war: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
What it means for Sudan's civil war: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
Lots of talk about the deteriorating situation in Somalia lately.
I think the immediate threat to Mogadishu may be overstated, but the backsliding in central Somalia is setting conditions for AS to encircle Mog & generate an existential threat in the medium term.
More below⬇️
I think the immediate threat to Mogadishu may be overstated, but the backsliding in central Somalia is setting conditions for AS to encircle Mog & generate an existential threat in the medium term.
More below⬇️
NEW | Al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate al Shabaab is attempting to overwhelm Somali forces around Mogadishu and in central Somalia.
More from CTP's latest Africa File below🧵🔽: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 1/8
More from CTP's latest Africa File below🧵🔽: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 1/8
March 24, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Lots of talk about the deteriorating situation in Somalia lately.
I think the immediate threat to Mogadishu may be overstated, but the backsliding in central Somalia is setting conditions for AS to encircle Mog & generate an existential threat in the medium term.
More below⬇️
I think the immediate threat to Mogadishu may be overstated, but the backsliding in central Somalia is setting conditions for AS to encircle Mog & generate an existential threat in the medium term.
More below⬇️
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | The Democratic Republic of the Congo & Rwanda agreed to a Qatari-mediated ceasefire, but fundamental disagreements and obstacles remain.
Rwandan-backed M23 advanced westward & captured a key district capital on March 19 despite ceasefire efforts. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
Rwandan-backed M23 advanced westward & captured a key district capital on March 19 despite ceasefire efforts. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
March 20, 2025 at 7:52 PM
NEW | The Democratic Republic of the Congo & Rwanda agreed to a Qatari-mediated ceasefire, but fundamental disagreements and obstacles remain.
Rwandan-backed M23 advanced westward & captured a key district capital on March 19 despite ceasefire efforts. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
Rwandan-backed M23 advanced westward & captured a key district capital on March 19 despite ceasefire efforts. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵
Reposted by Liam Karr
Renewed conflict in Tigray or between Ethiopia and Eritrea would generate an economic, humanitarian, and security crisis that would have reverberations across Africa and even into Europe.🧵
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
March 14, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Renewed conflict in Tigray or between Ethiopia and Eritrea would generate an economic, humanitarian, and security crisis that would have reverberations across Africa and even into Europe.🧵
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels continued their advance along the RN2 road southwest of Bukavu in central South Kivu and entered Mwenga district.
M23 has advanced over 30 miles along the RN2 since March 1.
Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo... 🧵⬇️
M23 has advanced over 30 miles along the RN2 since March 1.
Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo... 🧵⬇️
March 4, 2025 at 8:18 PM
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels continued their advance along the RN2 road southwest of Bukavu in central South Kivu and entered Mwenga district.
M23 has advanced over 30 miles along the RN2 since March 1.
Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo... 🧵⬇️
M23 has advanced over 30 miles along the RN2 since March 1.
Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo... 🧵⬇️
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | Pro-Congolese government militia fighters launched counterattacks against M23-aligned rebels that likely involved ethnically-motivated retaliatory violence against Banyamulenge civilians in South Kivu.
Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo...
Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo...
March 3, 2025 at 10:51 PM
NEW | Pro-Congolese government militia fighters launched counterattacks against M23-aligned rebels that likely involved ethnically-motivated retaliatory violence against Banyamulenge civilians in South Kivu.
Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo...
Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo...
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | IS Sahel Province (ISSP) is conducting a campaign to establish attack capabilities in Morocco and potentially use Morocco as a bridge for attacks in Europe.
More details below from the latest Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... ⬇️🧵1/6
More details below from the latest Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... ⬇️🧵1/6
March 3, 2025 at 4:29 PM
NEW | IS Sahel Province (ISSP) is conducting a campaign to establish attack capabilities in Morocco and potentially use Morocco as a bridge for attacks in Europe.
More details below from the latest Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... ⬇️🧵1/6
More details below from the latest Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... ⬇️🧵1/6
Reposted by Liam Karr
Utterly shameful behavior from Trump + Vance. Belittling and humiliating an ALLY who has done everything to fight for the literal survival of his people (and the free world). Russia's daily atrocities against the Ukrainian people clearly mean nothing to this admin- and that's a bad precedent to set.
Trump to Zelenskyy: "Don't tell us what we're gonna feel. You're in no position to dictate that. You're in no position to dictate what we're gonna feel. We're gonna feel very good and very strong. You're right now not in a very good position. You're gambling with World War 3."
February 28, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Utterly shameful behavior from Trump + Vance. Belittling and humiliating an ALLY who has done everything to fight for the literal survival of his people (and the free world). Russia's daily atrocities against the Ukrainian people clearly mean nothing to this admin- and that's a bad precedent to set.
Don't cover Ukraine, but this is awful & embarrassing.
This is the patronizing approach that people have criticized the US for using with African allies for years.
We are bad partners to treat our allies, who are fighting for their existence, in this way.
This is the patronizing approach that people have criticized the US for using with African allies for years.
We are bad partners to treat our allies, who are fighting for their existence, in this way.
Trump to Zelenskyy: "Don't tell us what we're gonna feel. You're in no position to dictate that. You're in no position to dictate what we're gonna feel. We're gonna feel very good and very strong. You're right now not in a very good position. You're gambling with World War 3."
February 28, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Don't cover Ukraine, but this is awful & embarrassing.
This is the patronizing approach that people have criticized the US for using with African allies for years.
We are bad partners to treat our allies, who are fighting for their existence, in this way.
This is the patronizing approach that people have criticized the US for using with African allies for years.
We are bad partners to treat our allies, who are fighting for their existence, in this way.
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8.
M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6
M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6
February 7, 2025 at 2:17 PM
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8.
M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6
M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | Algeria & the United States have tightened their relationship as Algeria seeks to diversify its partnerships beyond its traditional partner, Russia.
Stronger Algerian-US ties will benefit US efforts to counter Russia, Iran, and Salafi-jihadi insurgents. 1/7 🧵
Stronger Algerian-US ties will benefit US efforts to counter Russia, Iran, and Salafi-jihadi insurgents. 1/7 🧵
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8.
M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6
M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6
February 7, 2025 at 5:34 PM
NEW | Algeria & the United States have tightened their relationship as Algeria seeks to diversify its partnerships beyond its traditional partner, Russia.
Stronger Algerian-US ties will benefit US efforts to counter Russia, Iran, and Salafi-jihadi insurgents. 1/7 🧵
Stronger Algerian-US ties will benefit US efforts to counter Russia, Iran, and Salafi-jihadi insurgents. 1/7 🧵
Reposted by Liam Karr
NEW | The war in the eastern DRC will likely escalate further after Rwandan-backed M23 captured Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, continued to advance into South Kivu, and stated that it aims to take Kinshasa.
The latest on the battlefield and what could be next⬇️🧵1/7
The latest on the battlefield and what could be next⬇️🧵1/7
January 31, 2025 at 2:19 PM
NEW | The war in the eastern DRC will likely escalate further after Rwandan-backed M23 captured Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, continued to advance into South Kivu, and stated that it aims to take Kinshasa.
The latest on the battlefield and what could be next⬇️🧵1/7
The latest on the battlefield and what could be next⬇️🧵1/7