Learn Biotech Investing
@learnbiotech.bsky.social
Learn to invest in biotech like the professionals from a former biotech executive and investment banker. For education purposes only.
Course on Thinkific
learnbiotechinvesting.thinkific.com
Course on Thinkific
learnbiotechinvesting.thinkific.com
Do #biotech stocks over-react to bad news? A study found that on average, a biotech stock returns 72% after reporting negative clinical data after 12 months
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 19, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Do #biotech stocks over-react to bad news? A study found that on average, a biotech stock returns 72% after reporting negative clinical data after 12 months
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
An interesting find but likely a dataset quirk
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 18, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should beware of drug revenue forecasts. They're often wildly off, either too high or too low
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 17, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors should beware of drug revenue forecasts. They're often wildly off, either too high or too low
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
That will impact your analysis
This is from 2013. If there's more recent data, please cite the source below
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should keep in mind that a drug on the market after an accelerated approval can later be withdrawn if the confirmatory study doesn't show favorable risk/benefit on an approvable endpoint
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
December 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors should keep in mind that a drug on the market after an accelerated approval can later be withdrawn if the confirmatory study doesn't show favorable risk/benefit on an approvable endpoint
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
Here are recent oncology examples but it also happens in other TAs (women's health)
A key variable for investors is management reputation
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
December 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM
A key variable for investors is management reputation
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view
Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good & bad
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 13, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Pharma has varying levels of success developing drugs. That's a boon for biotech
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
December 12, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Pharma has varying levels of success developing drugs. That's a boon for biotech
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should be aware of "p-hacking" strategies used in data analysis: For biotech, I have come across #s 3, 6, 8-11 too often
Hard to know without raw data but be prepared to ask & investigate where possible!
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Hard to know without raw data but be prepared to ask & investigate where possible!
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 11, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors should be aware of "p-hacking" strategies used in data analysis: For biotech, I have come across #s 3, 6, 8-11 too often
Hard to know without raw data but be prepared to ask & investigate where possible!
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Hard to know without raw data but be prepared to ask & investigate where possible!
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should know WHAT will move a stock and WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time.
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 10, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Investors should know WHAT will move a stock and WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time.
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 9, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Biotech investors take note: Blockbuster drugs drive #pharma profitability
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 8, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Biotech investors take note: Blockbuster drugs drive #pharma profitability
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's some data for #investors when trying to benchmark the costs of pivotal clinical trials (2015-2017)
You can see it varies by Therapeutic Area
Remember, good clinical trials CANNOT be done on the cheap!
If anyone has updated numbers, please share!!!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
You can see it varies by Therapeutic Area
Remember, good clinical trials CANNOT be done on the cheap!
If anyone has updated numbers, please share!!!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
December 7, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Here's some data for #investors when trying to benchmark the costs of pivotal clinical trials (2015-2017)
You can see it varies by Therapeutic Area
Remember, good clinical trials CANNOT be done on the cheap!
If anyone has updated numbers, please share!!!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
You can see it varies by Therapeutic Area
Remember, good clinical trials CANNOT be done on the cheap!
If anyone has updated numbers, please share!!!
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Another reason a P3 study can fail while a P2 was successful is that P2 placebo groups, with narrower eligibility criteria & fewer patients, often have more variable placebo-adjusted effects
Use Phase 3 data, often on drug labels, to make comparisons; They're more consistent
#learnbiotechinvesting
Use Phase 3 data, often on drug labels, to make comparisons; They're more consistent
#learnbiotechinvesting
December 6, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Another reason a P3 study can fail while a P2 was successful is that P2 placebo groups, with narrower eligibility criteria & fewer patients, often have more variable placebo-adjusted effects
Use Phase 3 data, often on drug labels, to make comparisons; They're more consistent
#learnbiotechinvesting
Use Phase 3 data, often on drug labels, to make comparisons; They're more consistent
#learnbiotechinvesting
Investors should understand the #FDA regulatory process well. Here is a quick summary
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
December 5, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Investors should understand the #FDA regulatory process well. Here is a quick summary
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
At each step investors should ask themselves if the company is developing things in a way that will satisfy the FDA
Until a drug is approved the FDA is the most important decision maker
#BiotechPrometheus
Investors should note forecasters believe #ProbabilityOfSuccess across drug discovery will improve drastically (over 2x) versus existing success rates as AI-powered drugs go through the approval process
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 4, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors should note forecasters believe #ProbabilityOfSuccess across drug discovery will improve drastically (over 2x) versus existing success rates as AI-powered drugs go through the approval process
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
An important model for biotechs is an epidemiology build: an #epibuild
It takes a disease prevalence (or incidence) and turns it into annual revenue. This is what is plugged into other models
Here's an example:
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It takes a disease prevalence (or incidence) and turns it into annual revenue. This is what is plugged into other models
Here's an example:
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 2, 2025 at 11:01 AM
An important model for biotechs is an epidemiology build: an #epibuild
It takes a disease prevalence (or incidence) and turns it into annual revenue. This is what is plugged into other models
Here's an example:
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It takes a disease prevalence (or incidence) and turns it into annual revenue. This is what is plugged into other models
Here's an example:
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Drug launches are hard, especially for companies with no experience. Yet its becoming more common
First timers underperform expectations vs experienced peers ~75% vs ~55% of the time
McKinsey correlates this to greater & earlier commercial investment from experience
Do you agree?
First timers underperform expectations vs experienced peers ~75% vs ~55% of the time
McKinsey correlates this to greater & earlier commercial investment from experience
Do you agree?
December 1, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Drug launches are hard, especially for companies with no experience. Yet its becoming more common
First timers underperform expectations vs experienced peers ~75% vs ~55% of the time
McKinsey correlates this to greater & earlier commercial investment from experience
Do you agree?
First timers underperform expectations vs experienced peers ~75% vs ~55% of the time
McKinsey correlates this to greater & earlier commercial investment from experience
Do you agree?
A key factor in understanding how a biotech drug is reimbursed is assessing where it sits on the formulary (its position)
This is a drastic simplification but useful to know
Be aware of the perverse incentives #PBM
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This is a drastic simplification but useful to know
Be aware of the perverse incentives #PBM
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 30, 2025 at 2:10 PM
A key factor in understanding how a biotech drug is reimbursed is assessing where it sits on the formulary (its position)
This is a drastic simplification but useful to know
Be aware of the perverse incentives #PBM
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This is a drastic simplification but useful to know
Be aware of the perverse incentives #PBM
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
In #oncology #M&A higher 5-yr forward revenue multiples occur for earlier stage companies, though P3 is an exception
Recently multiples have declined reflecting lower valuations, later stage acquisitions, and smaller market opportunities
What are some other reasons?
#learnbiotechinvesting
Recently multiples have declined reflecting lower valuations, later stage acquisitions, and smaller market opportunities
What are some other reasons?
#learnbiotechinvesting
November 29, 2025 at 1:01 PM
In #oncology #M&A higher 5-yr forward revenue multiples occur for earlier stage companies, though P3 is an exception
Recently multiples have declined reflecting lower valuations, later stage acquisitions, and smaller market opportunities
What are some other reasons?
#learnbiotechinvesting
Recently multiples have declined reflecting lower valuations, later stage acquisitions, and smaller market opportunities
What are some other reasons?
#learnbiotechinvesting
When thinking about valuing biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 28, 2025 at 11:00 AM
When thinking about valuing biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
The context of the data matter. How does it stack up against the competition? Is there other competition?
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 27, 2025 at 11:00 AM
The context of the data matter. How does it stack up against the competition? Is there other competition?
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
This framework will help investors organise their thoughts
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must continually assess the ever-changing Standard of Care landscape. It could change and make a positive clinical result less relevant
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 26, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors must continually assess the ever-changing Standard of Care landscape. It could change and make a positive clinical result less relevant
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Also keep an eye on the competition
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
November 25, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
Investors should be aware
#learnbiotechinvesting
As we say here often: "A press release is a marketing document, an SEC filing is a legal document"
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 24, 2025 at 11:00 AM
As we say here often: "A press release is a marketing document, an SEC filing is a legal document"
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Read the SEC filings! They exist to help #investors! And they are freely available, often on the company website
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus