Michael A. Gayed, CFA
@leadlagreport.bsky.social
5x Dow & Founders Award Winner. Risk-On/Off $RORO ETF, Junk-On/Off $JOJO ETF, & $ATACX Mutual Fund Portfolio Manager. Publisher Of The Lead-Lag Report.
BREAKING: Fed officials hint 3% inflation is still ‘too high’. Translation: no Santa Claus rate cut this year. Hawks and doves at the FOMC fight club keep investors guessing. Higher for longer… just got even longer.
November 18, 2025 at 10:23 AM
BREAKING: Fed officials hint 3% inflation is still ‘too high’. Translation: no Santa Claus rate cut this year. Hawks and doves at the FOMC fight club keep investors guessing. Higher for longer… just got even longer.
Capitalism isn’t driven by ideology; it’s driven by consumption.
If AI replaces workers faster than new jobs form, we face a paradox: abundance with no one left to buy it.
Productivity without income = deflation.
This is the real systemic risk.
If AI replaces workers faster than new jobs form, we face a paradox: abundance with no one left to buy it.
Productivity without income = deflation.
This is the real systemic risk.
November 10, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Capitalism isn’t driven by ideology; it’s driven by consumption.
If AI replaces workers faster than new jobs form, we face a paradox: abundance with no one left to buy it.
Productivity without income = deflation.
This is the real systemic risk.
If AI replaces workers faster than new jobs form, we face a paradox: abundance with no one left to buy it.
Productivity without income = deflation.
This is the real systemic risk.
UBI isn’t about generosity.
It’s maintenance.
If automation breaks the wage → spending → profit loop, the system must replace wages to survive.
UBI becomes the new oil that keeps the engine running.
It’s maintenance.
If automation breaks the wage → spending → profit loop, the system must replace wages to survive.
UBI becomes the new oil that keeps the engine running.
November 10, 2025 at 10:23 AM
UBI isn’t about generosity.
It’s maintenance.
If automation breaks the wage → spending → profit loop, the system must replace wages to survive.
UBI becomes the new oil that keeps the engine running.
It’s maintenance.
If automation breaks the wage → spending → profit loop, the system must replace wages to survive.
UBI becomes the new oil that keeps the engine running.
Warren Buffett is sitting on $350B in cash and short-term Treasuries—the largest corporate cash pile in history.
When the greatest value investor can’t find value, that’s not a footnote.
That’s the signal.
When the greatest value investor can’t find value, that’s not a footnote.
That’s the signal.
November 9, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Warren Buffett is sitting on $350B in cash and short-term Treasuries—the largest corporate cash pile in history.
When the greatest value investor can’t find value, that’s not a footnote.
That’s the signal.
When the greatest value investor can’t find value, that’s not a footnote.
That’s the signal.
Elevated equity markets are lifting the spirits of the wealthiest households, while confidence wanes among lower-income earners.
November 9, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Elevated equity markets are lifting the spirits of the wealthiest households, while confidence wanes among lower-income earners.
President Trump expects Q3 GDP to expand by at least 4.2%.
Who knows?
For now, the data is nowhere to be seen.
Who knows?
For now, the data is nowhere to be seen.
November 9, 2025 at 4:32 PM
President Trump expects Q3 GDP to expand by at least 4.2%.
Who knows?
For now, the data is nowhere to be seen.
Who knows?
For now, the data is nowhere to be seen.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.3 this month, down from 53.6 in October and below expectations of 53.2.
This marks the second-lowest reading ever recorded.
This marks the second-lowest reading ever recorded.
November 9, 2025 at 2:43 PM
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.3 this month, down from 53.6 in October and below expectations of 53.2.
This marks the second-lowest reading ever recorded.
This marks the second-lowest reading ever recorded.
The US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 2% month-over-month in October 2025, the biggest monthly drop since April of last year.
Post your used car ads below.
Post your used car ads below.
November 9, 2025 at 1:36 PM
The US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 2% month-over-month in October 2025, the biggest monthly drop since April of last year.
Post your used car ads below.
Post your used car ads below.
China's exports unexpectedly slipped by 1.1% year-on-year to $305.4 billion in October 2025, the lowest in eight years, and far off from forecasts expecting a 3% increase
November 9, 2025 at 11:45 AM
China's exports unexpectedly slipped by 1.1% year-on-year to $305.4 billion in October 2025, the lowest in eight years, and far off from forecasts expecting a 3% increase
The ongoing government shutdown, inflation, and worsening personal finances have all contributed to a decline in consumer sentiment and a dip in the dollar's value.
November 9, 2025 at 10:43 AM
The ongoing government shutdown, inflation, and worsening personal finances have all contributed to a decline in consumer sentiment and a dip in the dollar's value.
The continued government shutdown means we're flying blind in this economy with another missed jobs report.
Actually, scratch that.
We're not really flying much at all in this economy.
Actually, scratch that.
We're not really flying much at all in this economy.
November 9, 2025 at 10:23 AM
The continued government shutdown means we're flying blind in this economy with another missed jobs report.
Actually, scratch that.
We're not really flying much at all in this economy.
Actually, scratch that.
We're not really flying much at all in this economy.
While we don't have the official nonfarm payrolls report for October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, if it had been released, economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect it would have shown a loss of 60,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
November 8, 2025 at 5:18 PM
While we don't have the official nonfarm payrolls report for October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, if it had been released, economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect it would have shown a loss of 60,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
The Institute for Supply Management says the US manufacturing sector shrank for the eighth straight month in October, with the Manufacturing PMI coming in a 48.7%, a 0.4 percentage point drop from September's 49.1%.
November 8, 2025 at 4:43 PM
The Institute for Supply Management says the US manufacturing sector shrank for the eighth straight month in October, with the Manufacturing PMI coming in a 48.7%, a 0.4 percentage point drop from September's 49.1%.
While the Manufacturing PMI may have fallen, the ISM Services PMI recorded a 2.4 percentage point increase in October, hitting 52.4%, moving back into expansion territory.
November 8, 2025 at 4:32 PM
While the Manufacturing PMI may have fallen, the ISM Services PMI recorded a 2.4 percentage point increase in October, hitting 52.4%, moving back into expansion territory.
The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage moved higher for the first time in five weeks.
The average rate ticked up to 6.22%, rising from last week's 6.17%, which was the lowest level in over a year.
The average rate ticked up to 6.22%, rising from last week's 6.17%, which was the lowest level in over a year.
November 8, 2025 at 2:43 PM
The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage moved higher for the first time in five weeks.
The average rate ticked up to 6.22%, rising from last week's 6.17%, which was the lowest level in over a year.
The average rate ticked up to 6.22%, rising from last week's 6.17%, which was the lowest level in over a year.
The National Retail Federation estimates U.S. holiday spending will surpass $1 trillion for the first time this year, with total sales rising between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to 2024.
November 8, 2025 at 1:36 PM
The National Retail Federation estimates U.S. holiday spending will surpass $1 trillion for the first time this year, with total sales rising between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to 2024.
Thanks to sky-high equity markets, the wealthiest 10% of American households are fueling nearly half of all US spending, masking weaknesses among low- and middle-class families.
November 8, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Thanks to sky-high equity markets, the wealthiest 10% of American households are fueling nearly half of all US spending, masking weaknesses among low- and middle-class families.
Despite the National Retail Federation forecasting record holiday spending this year, retailers are expected to add just 265K to 365K workers this season, down from 442K in 2024.
November 8, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Despite the National Retail Federation forecasting record holiday spending this year, retailers are expected to add just 265K to 365K workers this season, down from 442K in 2024.
According to a survey by point-of-sale and payments system platform Lightspeed, one in four consumers says they plan to leverage Black Friday sales not to buy a new TV, but to pick up everyday essentials like groceries, toiletries, and household basics.
November 8, 2025 at 10:23 AM
According to a survey by point-of-sale and payments system platform Lightspeed, one in four consumers says they plan to leverage Black Friday sales not to buy a new TV, but to pick up everyday essentials like groceries, toiletries, and household basics.
November 7, 2025 at 5:18 PM
AI Just Fired the Middle Class — and Built a New Data-Center Boom Instead
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/ai-just-fi...
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/ai-just-fi...
November 7, 2025 at 4:43 PM
AI Just Fired the Middle Class — and Built a New Data-Center Boom Instead
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/ai-just-fi...
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/ai-just-fi...
Why Warren Buffett Is Sitting on Record Cash — and What That Says About the Market
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/why-warren...
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/why-warren...
November 7, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Why Warren Buffett Is Sitting on Record Cash — and What That Says About the Market
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/why-warren...
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/why-warren...
Trick or Treat Rally: A Hawkish Chill After Halloween Highs
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/trick-or-t...
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/trick-or-t...
November 7, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Trick or Treat Rally: A Hawkish Chill After Halloween Highs
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/trick-or-t...
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/trick-or-t...
Seth Cogswell on Bubbles, Passive Flows, and What Breaks Next
Watch here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/seth-cogsw...
Watch here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/seth-cogsw...
November 7, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Seth Cogswell on Bubbles, Passive Flows, and What Breaks Next
Watch here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/seth-cogsw...
Watch here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/seth-cogsw...
When Robots Take Your Job, Will the Government Pay You Instead?
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/when-robot...
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/when-robot...
November 7, 2025 at 11:45 AM
When Robots Take Your Job, Will the Government Pay You Instead?
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/when-robot...
Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/when-robot...