Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
@kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social
Wealth Advisor for High Income Entrepreneurs | Founder of Ivory Hill | Pension & 401k Advisor | RiskSIGNAL™ | http://RiskSIGNALReport.com
Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.
November 3, 2025 at 1:15 AM
Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.
Russell 2000 earnings are up +45.7% YoY with 66% of companies beating estimates, the strongest profit acceleration since the post-COVID rebound.
Margins are expanding again, signaling real leverage returning to Main Street.
Margins are expanding again, signaling real leverage returning to Main Street.
November 1, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Russell 2000 earnings are up +45.7% YoY with 66% of companies beating estimates, the strongest profit acceleration since the post-COVID rebound.
Margins are expanding again, signaling real leverage returning to Main Street.
Margins are expanding again, signaling real leverage returning to Main Street.
The Fed is betting inflation ticks up. I’m betting it ticks down.
More in today’s report 👇
www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/earnings-a...
More in today’s report 👇
www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/earnings-a...
October 31, 2025 at 8:34 PM
The Fed is betting inflation ticks up. I’m betting it ticks down.
More in today’s report 👇
www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/earnings-a...
More in today’s report 👇
www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/earnings-a...
The University of Michigan’s final October Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 53.6 vs. expectations of 55.0, holding near multi-decade lows. These readings typically align with periods of deep and extended economic downturns, highlighting how fragile consumer confidence remains.
October 27, 2025 at 8:37 PM
The University of Michigan’s final October Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 53.6 vs. expectations of 55.0, holding near multi-decade lows. These readings typically align with periods of deep and extended economic downturns, highlighting how fragile consumer confidence remains.
Core inflation has stalled near 3%, still a full point above the Fed’s 2% target.
Wouldn't be surprised to see this print a lot lower next month.
Wouldn't be surprised to see this print a lot lower next month.
October 27, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Core inflation has stalled near 3%, still a full point above the Fed’s 2% target.
Wouldn't be surprised to see this print a lot lower next month.
Wouldn't be surprised to see this print a lot lower next month.
Retail control sales softened sharply in September. BofA’s internal data shows a far weaker trend than Census data, suggesting consumer momentum is fading beneath the surface. The strength in Q3 GDP may be the high-water mark before the slowdown shows up in Q4 data.
Time will tell.
Time will tell.
October 26, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Retail control sales softened sharply in September. BofA’s internal data shows a far weaker trend than Census data, suggesting consumer momentum is fading beneath the surface. The strength in Q3 GDP may be the high-water mark before the slowdown shows up in Q4 data.
Time will tell.
Time will tell.
BofA’s tracking model shows Q3 GDP still running near 2.8%, driven by strong consumption. The economy continues to show surprising resilience even with elevated rates, but don’t mistake momentum for immunity. The Fed’s next move hinges on whether spending can hold into Q4.
October 26, 2025 at 3:55 PM
BofA’s tracking model shows Q3 GDP still running near 2.8%, driven by strong consumption. The economy continues to show surprising resilience even with elevated rates, but don’t mistake momentum for immunity. The Fed’s next move hinges on whether spending can hold into Q4.
Friendly reminder that the 130
October 21, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Friendly reminder that the 130
The last 50 years remind us: cheap money isn’t normal, it’s cyclical.
October 21, 2025 at 3:55 PM
The last 50 years remind us: cheap money isn’t normal, it’s cyclical.
Credit card delinquencies just hit their highest level since 2010.
Total credit card debt is now over $1.2T, and more than 12% of accounts are 90+ days delinquent.
Those with assets will be fine.
Those with debt are getting crushed.
The wealth gap isn’t closing, it’s accelerating.
Total credit card debt is now over $1.2T, and more than 12% of accounts are 90+ days delinquent.
Those with assets will be fine.
Those with debt are getting crushed.
The wealth gap isn’t closing, it’s accelerating.
October 21, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Credit card delinquencies just hit their highest level since 2010.
Total credit card debt is now over $1.2T, and more than 12% of accounts are 90+ days delinquent.
Those with assets will be fine.
Those with debt are getting crushed.
The wealth gap isn’t closing, it’s accelerating.
Total credit card debt is now over $1.2T, and more than 12% of accounts are 90+ days delinquent.
Those with assets will be fine.
Those with debt are getting crushed.
The wealth gap isn’t closing, it’s accelerating.
October 21, 2025 at 2:15 PM
The October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report ticked down slightly from 55.1 to 55. Readings below 80 have historically aligned with recessions. Pair that with 1-year inflation expectations still elevated at 4.8%, and you have a classic stagflation warning signal.
October 20, 2025 at 1:26 PM
The October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report ticked down slightly from 55.1 to 55. Readings below 80 have historically aligned with recessions. Pair that with 1-year inflation expectations still elevated at 4.8%, and you have a classic stagflation warning signal.
Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.
October 19, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.
When the next major crash hits, there will be signs, and this is one of them.
The number of leveraged equity ETFs just hit a record 701.
When leverage becomes a product, not a tool, it tells you where we are in the cycle…
The number of leveraged equity ETFs just hit a record 701.
When leverage becomes a product, not a tool, it tells you where we are in the cycle…
October 19, 2025 at 9:50 PM
When the next major crash hits, there will be signs, and this is one of them.
The number of leveraged equity ETFs just hit a record 701.
When leverage becomes a product, not a tool, it tells you where we are in the cycle…
The number of leveraged equity ETFs just hit a record 701.
When leverage becomes a product, not a tool, it tells you where we are in the cycle…
When money moves into utilities, it’s rarely random.
They’re the most bond-like sector in the market; predictable cash flows, steady demand, and a telltale sign that investors are getting defensive.
Check out my latest report 👇
www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...
They’re the most bond-like sector in the market; predictable cash flows, steady demand, and a telltale sign that investors are getting defensive.
Check out my latest report 👇
www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...
October 19, 2025 at 7:16 PM
When money moves into utilities, it’s rarely random.
They’re the most bond-like sector in the market; predictable cash flows, steady demand, and a telltale sign that investors are getting defensive.
Check out my latest report 👇
www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...
They’re the most bond-like sector in the market; predictable cash flows, steady demand, and a telltale sign that investors are getting defensive.
Check out my latest report 👇
www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...
BofA expects one more cut of -0.25% in October and then -0.75% in the second half of 2026 for a terminal rate of 3-3.25%.
October 5, 2025 at 3:55 PM
BofA expects one more cut of -0.25% in October and then -0.75% in the second half of 2026 for a terminal rate of 3-3.25%.
Valuation Market Impact
Mild labor weakness can pull the S&P 500 down 10–15% as multiples slip below 20x.
Deeper job losses often trigger 20–30% drawdowns.
Severe recessions have historically driven 25–35% declines as earnings get cut and spending collapses.
Mild labor weakness can pull the S&P 500 down 10–15% as multiples slip below 20x.
Deeper job losses often trigger 20–30% drawdowns.
Severe recessions have historically driven 25–35% declines as earnings get cut and spending collapses.
October 3, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Valuation Market Impact
Mild labor weakness can pull the S&P 500 down 10–15% as multiples slip below 20x.
Deeper job losses often trigger 20–30% drawdowns.
Severe recessions have historically driven 25–35% declines as earnings get cut and spending collapses.
Mild labor weakness can pull the S&P 500 down 10–15% as multiples slip below 20x.
Deeper job losses often trigger 20–30% drawdowns.
Severe recessions have historically driven 25–35% declines as earnings get cut and spending collapses.
Valuations Compress When Jobs Break
When the labor market weakens, the S&P 500 has historically fallen from >20x forward earnings to below 20x.
Deeper recessions push multiples even lower as earnings are cut, driving sharper equity drawdowns.
When the labor market weakens, the S&P 500 has historically fallen from >20x forward earnings to below 20x.
Deeper recessions push multiples even lower as earnings are cut, driving sharper equity drawdowns.
October 3, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Valuations Compress When Jobs Break
When the labor market weakens, the S&P 500 has historically fallen from >20x forward earnings to below 20x.
Deeper recessions push multiples even lower as earnings are cut, driving sharper equity drawdowns.
When the labor market weakens, the S&P 500 has historically fallen from >20x forward earnings to below 20x.
Deeper recessions push multiples even lower as earnings are cut, driving sharper equity drawdowns.
Unemployment Rate is a key cycle signal:
• Early warning: >4.5%
• Once it breaks 4.6%, history shows 5% often follows
When joblessness climbs past these levels, the soft-landing narrative usually fades and markets begin pricing in an economic slowdown.
• Early warning: >4.5%
• Once it breaks 4.6%, history shows 5% often follows
When joblessness climbs past these levels, the soft-landing narrative usually fades and markets begin pricing in an economic slowdown.
October 3, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Unemployment Rate is a key cycle signal:
• Early warning: >4.5%
• Once it breaks 4.6%, history shows 5% often follows
When joblessness climbs past these levels, the soft-landing narrative usually fades and markets begin pricing in an economic slowdown.
• Early warning: >4.5%
• Once it breaks 4.6%, history shows 5% often follows
When joblessness climbs past these levels, the soft-landing narrative usually fades and markets begin pricing in an economic slowdown.
Jobless Claims are the early warning system for the economy.
• First alert: 260k
• Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average
Once claims cross these lines, the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting, a key risk for stocks.
• First alert: 260k
• Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average
Once claims cross these lines, the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting, a key risk for stocks.
October 3, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Jobless Claims are the early warning system for the economy.
• First alert: 260k
• Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average
Once claims cross these lines, the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting, a key risk for stocks.
• First alert: 260k
• Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average
Once claims cross these lines, the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting, a key risk for stocks.
Job Openings (JOLTS) are slipping fast.
• First warning comes if openings fall below 6.5M
• A drop toward 5M has marked every recent recession
When companies stop hiring and protect cash, consumer spending slows — and markets usually reprice quickly.
• First warning comes if openings fall below 6.5M
• A drop toward 5M has marked every recent recession
When companies stop hiring and protect cash, consumer spending slows — and markets usually reprice quickly.
October 2, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Job Openings (JOLTS) are slipping fast.
• First warning comes if openings fall below 6.5M
• A drop toward 5M has marked every recent recession
When companies stop hiring and protect cash, consumer spending slows — and markets usually reprice quickly.
• First warning comes if openings fall below 6.5M
• A drop toward 5M has marked every recent recession
When companies stop hiring and protect cash, consumer spending slows — and markets usually reprice quickly.
Light earnings week.
September 28, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Light earnings week.
New cycle tights in credit spreads reinforce the all-clear for equity markets.
September 23, 2025 at 1:13 PM
New cycle tights in credit spreads reinforce the all-clear for equity markets.
Netflix's homepage in 1999, one year after it launched.
September 15, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Netflix's homepage in 1999, one year after it launched.
Las Vegas tourist activity is down ~13%, the largest drop since COVID.
If you are still charging outrageously high fees, eventually your customers are going to stop buying from you.
If you are still charging outrageously high fees, eventually your customers are going to stop buying from you.
September 15, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Las Vegas tourist activity is down ~13%, the largest drop since COVID.
If you are still charging outrageously high fees, eventually your customers are going to stop buying from you.
If you are still charging outrageously high fees, eventually your customers are going to stop buying from you.