Lynne Kiesling
@knowledgeproblem.bsky.social
Director, Inst for Regulatory Law & Economics & Adjunct Professor MSES, Northwestern University
Research Professor, University of Colorado Denver
External Faculty, Santa Fe Institute
www.lynnekiesling.com
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
🔌💡 and 📉�
Research Professor, University of Colorado Denver
External Faculty, Santa Fe Institute
www.lynnekiesling.com
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
🔌💡 and 📉�
There's a literature in political economy on bureaucratic rigidity and the pacing problem. Classic work here comes from Anthony Downs, and it's striking how relevant his bureaucracy life cycle model is to electricity regulation. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/the-rigidi...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/the-rigidi...
The Rigidity Cycle and the Pacing Problem
Anthony Downs on bureaucratic cruft
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
April 17, 2025 at 1:28 PM
There's a literature in political economy on bureaucratic rigidity and the pacing problem. Classic work here comes from Anthony Downs, and it's striking how relevant his bureaucracy life cycle model is to electricity regulation. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/the-rigidi...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/the-rigidi...
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
CBO's new long-term budget outlook. It's...not good. Record debt, record deficits, record interest. Debt spiral (interest outpacing GDP growth) begins in 2045. www.crfb.org/papers/analy...
Analysis of CBO’s March 2025 Long-Term Budget Outlook | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its March 2025 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which builds off its
www.crfb.org
March 27, 2025 at 10:58 PM
CBO's new long-term budget outlook. It's...not good. Record debt, record deficits, record interest. Debt spiral (interest outpacing GDP growth) begins in 2045. www.crfb.org/papers/analy...
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
Half of all new US EV registrations, 2012–2023, went to the top 10 percent most Democratic counties, from Lucas W. Davis, Jing Li, and Katalin Springel https://www.nber.org/papers/w33591
March 26, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Half of all new US EV registrations, 2012–2023, went to the top 10 percent most Democratic counties, from Lucas W. Davis, Jing Li, and Katalin Springel https://www.nber.org/papers/w33591
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
On this week's Boiling Point podcast, I moderate the Great Rooftop Solar Debate! The leader of CA's solar trade group and a UC Berkeley economist debate solar incentives, and things get intense. My attempts at finding common ground do not work. Listen in: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Great Rooftop Solar Debate
Podcast Episode · Boiling Point · 03/27/2025 · 45m
podcasts.apple.com
March 27, 2025 at 3:31 PM
On this week's Boiling Point podcast, I moderate the Great Rooftop Solar Debate! The leader of CA's solar trade group and a UC Berkeley economist debate solar incentives, and things get intense. My attempts at finding common ground do not work. Listen in: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Growing demand for electricity and the adoption of renewables are transforming the U.S. grid. Join @nationalacademies.org for a webinar series to explore emerging challenges for the future electricity system, with a focus on improving subnational decision-making, innovation, and supply chains.📉📈 🔌💡
www.nationalacademies.org
March 18, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Growing demand for electricity and the adoption of renewables are transforming the U.S. grid. Join @nationalacademies.org for a webinar series to explore emerging challenges for the future electricity system, with a focus on improving subnational decision-making, innovation, and supply chains.📉📈 🔌💡
Innovation is the key to a clean and prosperous future. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/innovating...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/innovating...
Innovating Future Power Systems: From Vision to Action
Innovation is the key to a clean and prosperous energy future
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
February 27, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Innovation is the key to a clean and prosperous future. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/innovating...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/innovating...
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
#EnergySky friends, we are releasing a set of papers today outlining how #SurplusInterconnection can unlock GW of new resources. Surplus is a way to plug wind and solar into existing thermal plants.
Check out our papers, along with a cool interactive dashboard, here: www.scarcitytosurplus.com
Check out our papers, along with a cool interactive dashboard, here: www.scarcitytosurplus.com
From Scarcity to Surplus: A Renewable Energy Revolution
Exploring innovative solutions for renewable energy deployment
www.scarcitytosurplus.com
February 21, 2025 at 3:43 PM
#EnergySky friends, we are releasing a set of papers today outlining how #SurplusInterconnection can unlock GW of new resources. Surplus is a way to plug wind and solar into existing thermal plants.
Check out our papers, along with a cool interactive dashboard, here: www.scarcitytosurplus.com
Check out our papers, along with a cool interactive dashboard, here: www.scarcitytosurplus.com
Power systems are transforming—but outdated regulations are holding back innovation.
📢 Innovating Future Power Systems: From Vision to Action explores how to drive a clean, reliable, and consumer-driven energy future.
🔹 Read the full report: www.aei.org/research-pro...
📢 Innovating Future Power Systems: From Vision to Action explores how to drive a clean, reliable, and consumer-driven energy future.
🔹 Read the full report: www.aei.org/research-pro...
www.aei.org
February 21, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Power systems are transforming—but outdated regulations are holding back innovation.
📢 Innovating Future Power Systems: From Vision to Action explores how to drive a clean, reliable, and consumer-driven energy future.
🔹 Read the full report: www.aei.org/research-pro...
📢 Innovating Future Power Systems: From Vision to Action explores how to drive a clean, reliable, and consumer-driven energy future.
🔹 Read the full report: www.aei.org/research-pro...
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
crazy good and detailed explanation of the transmission problems we face here in the good old U.S.A....
If electricity transmission is so important, why is it so hard to build? 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms IV
If electricity transmission is so important, why is it so hard to build?
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
February 20, 2025 at 12:01 AM
crazy good and detailed explanation of the transmission problems we face here in the good old U.S.A....
If electricity transmission is so important, why is it so hard to build? 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms IV
If electricity transmission is so important, why is it so hard to build?
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
February 19, 2025 at 10:20 PM
If electricity transmission is so important, why is it so hard to build? 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff
February 2, 2025 at 5:20 PM
If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101!
They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.
Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.
1/
They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.
Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.
1/
February 2, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101!
They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.
Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.
1/
They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.
Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.
1/
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
What could possibly go wrong, you ask? 😬
February 2, 2025 at 2:23 AM
What could possibly go wrong, you ask? 😬
The combination of monopoly regulation and RTO governance creates perverse transmission investment incentives. A slight diversion from my RTO series to provide useful background to those new to electricity policy. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms III
Regulation and perverse transmission incentives
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
January 31, 2025 at 5:24 PM
The combination of monopoly regulation and RTO governance creates perverse transmission investment incentives. A slight diversion from my RTO series to provide useful background to those new to electricity policy. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
Want to see what data center demand has done to power demand forecasts in just 12 months?
Check out PJMs forecast for summer and winter peaks in 2025 compared to 2024.
The difference between the 2032 forecast this year and last year is almost 40,000 MW. 🔌💡
Check out PJMs forecast for summer and winter peaks in 2025 compared to 2024.
The difference between the 2032 forecast this year and last year is almost 40,000 MW. 🔌💡
January 25, 2025 at 11:02 PM
Want to see what data center demand has done to power demand forecasts in just 12 months?
Check out PJMs forecast for summer and winter peaks in 2025 compared to 2024.
The difference between the 2032 forecast this year and last year is almost 40,000 MW. 🔌💡
Check out PJMs forecast for summer and winter peaks in 2025 compared to 2024.
The difference between the 2032 forecast this year and last year is almost 40,000 MW. 🔌💡
I'm starting off 2025 by writing a series about RTOs as wholesale market platforms. Part II: institutional path dependence entrenches the governance power of incumbents. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms II
Why Power Systems Struggle with Change: Perverse Incentives and Outdated Rules
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
January 23, 2025 at 6:09 PM
I'm starting off 2025 by writing a series about RTOs as wholesale market platforms. Part II: institutional path dependence entrenches the governance power of incumbents. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
Fueled partly by energy demand for AI, power utilities projected last year that electricity demand would grow FIVE times faster over the next five years compared to forecasts made two years ago. www.ciphernews.com/articles/dat... by @catclifford.bsky.social in Cipher News
Data centers drive up projected electricity growth in the U.S. - Cipher News
In just two years, the growth of data centers — fueled in part by artificial intelligence’s rapid integration into our livelihoods — have dramatically reshaped expectations for future energy consumpti...
www.ciphernews.com
January 10, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Fueled partly by energy demand for AI, power utilities projected last year that electricity demand would grow FIVE times faster over the next five years compared to forecasts made two years ago. www.ciphernews.com/articles/dat... by @catclifford.bsky.social in Cipher News
I'm starting off 2025, a year when I'll write a lot about the role of markets and innovation in enabling our future power systems, by writing a series about RTOs as wholesale market platforms. Part I: economic history. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms I
What's the origin story of wholesale power markets?
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
January 9, 2025 at 3:50 PM
I'm starting off 2025, a year when I'll write a lot about the role of markets and innovation in enabling our future power systems, by writing a series about RTOs as wholesale market platforms. Part I: economic history. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
In my second post on grid defection: Since 2014, has it become more feasible, and more likely? 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...
Economics of Grid Defection II
Is it more feasible, and more likely?
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
December 16, 2024 at 7:56 PM
In my second post on grid defection: Since 2014, has it become more feasible, and more likely? 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
Long overdue super 🧵on why residential grid-interactive V2X is not (yet) a thing in the US.
1) Interconnection (IX)
2) Rate design
3) Vehicle capabilities & standards adoption
#energysky
1) Interconnection (IX)
2) Rate design
3) Vehicle capabilities & standards adoption
#energysky
Interesting fact that popped for me on V2X — in the US there is currently about 10X the battery capacity (GWh) in EVs on the road today, than deployed as stationary batteries (utility, C&I and resi). Also, over the next 10 years, we expect both to increase ~10X.
December 15, 2024 at 6:42 PM
Long overdue super 🧵on why residential grid-interactive V2X is not (yet) a thing in the US.
1) Interconnection (IX)
2) Rate design
3) Vehicle capabilities & standards adoption
#energysky
1) Interconnection (IX)
2) Rate design
3) Vehicle capabilities & standards adoption
#energysky
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
Elon’s ambitions should not serve as cover for Dems to abdicate responsibility for thinking seriously about government reform, says @pahlkadot.bsky.social "Let’s not pretend that change was going to come from Democrats if they’d only had another term."
www.eatingpolicy.com/p/bringing-e...
www.eatingpolicy.com/p/bringing-e...
December 14, 2024 at 5:15 PM
Elon’s ambitions should not serve as cover for Dems to abdicate responsibility for thinking seriously about government reform, says @pahlkadot.bsky.social "Let’s not pretend that change was going to come from Democrats if they’d only had another term."
www.eatingpolicy.com/p/bringing-e...
www.eatingpolicy.com/p/bringing-e...
A decade ago the talk of electricity policy was grid defection. The underlying economic concept: contestability. The first of a four-part series on grid defection's decade.
📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...
📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...
Economics of Grid Defection I
Grid defection and contestability
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
December 12, 2024 at 3:25 PM
A decade ago the talk of electricity policy was grid defection. The underlying economic concept: contestability. The first of a four-part series on grid defection's decade.
📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...
📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
A lot of people still don’t realize that dramatic cost reductions in geothermal is something happening *right now*, not theoretically in the future.
Here is a look at the cost numbers published by NREL every year for Deep Enhanced Geothermal. A 50% improvement in 2024 with a lot more to come.
Here is a look at the cost numbers published by NREL every year for Deep Enhanced Geothermal. A 50% improvement in 2024 with a lot more to come.
December 12, 2024 at 1:57 PM
A lot of people still don’t realize that dramatic cost reductions in geothermal is something happening *right now*, not theoretically in the future.
Here is a look at the cost numbers published by NREL every year for Deep Enhanced Geothermal. A 50% improvement in 2024 with a lot more to come.
Here is a look at the cost numbers published by NREL every year for Deep Enhanced Geothermal. A 50% improvement in 2024 with a lot more to come.
Reposted by Lynne Kiesling
The Management Singularity - LLMs aren't going to transform the Fate of Mankind but they will remake how big organizations work. www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-manage...
The Management Singularity
LLMs will transform the world - but quietly
www.programmablemutter.com
December 9, 2024 at 1:18 PM
The Management Singularity - LLMs aren't going to transform the Fate of Mankind but they will remake how big organizations work. www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-manage...